FaceOff - Round 10: Adelaide Crows v Hawthorn Hawks at AAMI Stadium

Buddy Franklin takes a mark with less than a minute to go in the first Elimination Final match that sees Adelaide up 102 to 99. In what would the following year be the area of the ground that saw Franklin kick the majority of his 113 goals, Lance composed himself, calmly slotted the match winning goal and knocked the Crows out of finals contention. It would become the first of a three match losing streak against the Hawks for the Crows who had until then enjoyed a 15-9 lead over Hawthorn in their history.

Since that time Hawthorn has gone on to experience the dizzying highs of premiership glory, and have also experienced what can only be described as the next-morning-regret of a serious premiership hangover that, for a change, can be attributed to more than a lack of hunger brought on by success. Hawthorn's team has been ravaged by injuries, leaving their defence a mere skeleton of the hardworking group that last year kept Geelong's all-conquering side to it's fourth lowest score of the year, including Norm Smith Medallist Luke Hodge, and has their midfield depleted, robbing their brilliant forward line of the quality of supply it enjoyed last year.

The Crows on the other hand have been very much like a truck stuck in low gear. They're still moving forward - slowly - but certainly haven't managed to catch up with anyone in front of them, and their place on the ladder has stayed relatively constant since then, slipping just slightly in the past month. Despite enjoying their best injury list in many seasons, the Crows have still had to deal with losing important personnel - to other clubs as well as retirement.

Which brings us to May 31st, 2009, at 12:40PM Adelaide time. A Hawthorn team buoyed with wins the past two weeks, but perhaps flattered by the ineptness of their opponents in Melbourne and Fremantle, trying to recapture the form that saw them upset the previously invincible Cats in the 2008 grand final. An Adelaide team tipped by all and sundry to narrowly miss the top 8 looking like doing just that, all the while showing all-too-short glimpses of brilliance in each game, riding on the back of a spirit-lifting win over the youth-dominated squad of Carlton, their first at AAMI stadium for 2009. Both teams have their season's prospects well on the line - Hawthorn want to strike while the iron is hot, but they know they need to make it back to the top 4 to make a serious charge at going back-to-back. Adelaide are well and truly rebuilding but have demanding supporters and a steadfast coach who will not accept missing the finals. For both teams this game appears to be both winnable and dangerous. There is a high likelihood that come Sunday evening in round 22, this is the game that one of these two teams will look back upon and rue. These are the sorts of games that define a club's season.


Building the Adelaide team is certainly much easier than the Hawthorn team. The whispers from the media tell us that Bock is right to return this week and considering his job on Franklin last year, you would have to assume that he is straight back into the team. Which leaves the million dollar question that has divided Crows supporters this week - who moves on to take his spot? Given the Crows' preference for not playing too tall, and their unwillingness to break their structure, there appears to be only a few options:

Taylor Walker - For the first time went goalless last week, and while his defensive efforts are far improved, he still is very patchy in his influence on the game; as would be expected of a 19 year old key forward in his first playing season. In the past Walker would be exactly the sort of player to be dropped at the Crows - but this season has seen a change in mentality. We've commonly heard that Walker will play 22 games this season, and it is widely acknowledged that he will not learn anything in the SANFL. If he is the one to make way, it will only be because the rest of the team has done enough to deserve to stay.

Ivan Maric - Last in, first out is the logic that would see Maric depart. Until last week the Crows have insisted on playing with a single ruckman, and Kurt Tippett rotating between backup ruckman and full forward. For the first time in 2009 we last week saw two ruckmen come into the squad, releasing Tippett to play most of the game up forward. Maric's own form was not fantastic however, and the Crows may opt to replace him with Bock.

Brad Moran - The other of our two ruckman who outplayed Maric on the weekend, but has had three underwhelming performances in a row. Moran's versatility counts in his favour, but if the Crows are willing to have only a single ruckman in Maric, Bock will more than cover the run-and-carry lost by dropping Moran, and can provide more defensive action as well.

Brad Symes - The least performing of defenders on the weekend, despite putting his body on the line whenever required. Symes would be very stiff to be dropped, but may be a victim of being the worst of a good bunch.

Scott Stevens - I doubt this very much but certainly it would be a like-for-like replacement and until last week Stevens had been playing some very ordinary football since being concussed by Fremantle's Luke McPharlin.

At the moment I will stick my neck out and tout Symes to be the man dropped, leaving the Crows side looking something like:

Adelaide:
B: Johncock, Rutten, Bock
HB: McLeod, Otten, Doughty
C: Douglas, Thompson, Mackay
HF: Knights, Dangerfield, Vince
F: Porplyzia, Tippett, Walker
R: Maric, Goodwin, Edwards
I/C: Moran, Reilly, van Berlo, Stevens
Emergencies: Shirley, Griffin, Symes


The Hawthorn team is much more difficult to pick. The premiership trio of Stuart Dew, Clinton Young and Xavier Ellis are all available to come into the side that beat Melbourne last week, but Luke Hodge may return through Box Hill.

Who goes out of the side is a more difficult question again. Cameron Stokes and Garry Moss are under injury clouds, not to mention form queries, but may line up for the Hawks. Roughie will be able to provide a more knowledgable guide to this but there is an undercurrent on the Hawthorn board that Young may not be quite ready to make his return yet.

Does Renouf get another look in over Campbell or Taylor? Will Hodge step straight back into the side? It will be a very interesting week to look at the teams on Thursday evening. Here's a tentative guess at how Hawthorn may line up:

Hawthorn:
B: Guerra Brown Ellis
HB: Birchall Dowler Whitecross
C: Bateman Lewis Morton
HF: McGlynn Franklin Rioli
F: Williams Roughead Osborne
R: Taylor Sewell Mitchell
IC: Campbell Muston Murphy Dew


The Crows famously played and defeated Hawthorn by 86 points in their first ever home and away match in 1991, and since then have gone on to enjoy the better of the pairing, currently leading the head-to-head record 15-12. The story has been even better at AAMI Stadium, where the Crows lead the tally 9-3. Before last year the Crows had not lost to Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium since 1994, and last year only went down by 4 points courtesy of some last-minute magic from Luke Hodge. Long-term statistics all pale into irrelevance however when you consider that Hawthorn has a three-game streak on the Crows at the moment, have more wins than the Crows so far this season, and have a side that less than a year ago won the premiership.


Much has been made of Adelaide's inability to score large scores for a while now, and it has been made stark this season, with the Crows averaging only 14 goals a match, and breaking 100 points only twice. Tellingly, the Crows have top-scored at 86 in losses this season, whereas the Hawks average 96 points a match.

As much as the Crows have lacked the firepower to score, Hawthorn have lacked the capacity to restrict sides. Assuming the side lines up as I outline above, Hawthorn will be missing Hodge, Crawford, Young, Ladson, Gilham, Renouf and Croad from last year's grand final victory - several of which are either defenders of capable of playing defence. Ellis will be back in the team for the first match back, though he seems to have done his dues picking up 34 touches in the VFL so you would expect him to be close to his best again.

As good as Hawthorn's midfield is, it is clearly either end of the ground where the most excitement will be. In a statistical oddity, after nine rounds Hawthorn have conceded exactly the same number of points - 869 (amazingly, with four extra goals going Hawthorn's way to 24 additional behinds against) - as they have scored, and have only played one (Geelong) of the teams top three scoring teams. Five times they have conceded over 100 points. If there ever was a week that the Crows' young forward-line had a chance to dominate, it is this week. Hawthorn simply do not have a match-up for Tippett, and their stocks will be stretched to stop the likes of Dangerfield, Knights, Porplyzia from zipping around picking up possessions at will. This is assuming we can get the ball in the forward line to start with.

On the other end of the scale, Hawthorn's all-conquering forward line is mostly intact. The awesome duo of Franklin and Roughhead continues to prove nearly impossible to stop, and Williams and Rioli can do the impossible. Last year Bock was able to restrict Franklin to an equal season record of a single goal, but was perhaps fortunate in that Franklin kicked six behinds in the process. Jarryd Roughhead on the other hand proved a handfull for the Crows last time, recording his second-highest possession count for 2008 and booting three goals. Can Bock repeat his feat on Franklin this time around, with less experience around him and a stuttery midfield that could have trouble stopping the awesome delivery provided by the likes of Lewis and Mitchell?

The Crows and Hawthorn give away way too many frees. They sit third and second respectively in the none-too-flattering statistic of frees against differential, averaging 3.2 and 3.7 less frees than their opponent per game respectively. Serial offender Ivan Maric has averaged 2.6 frees against per game - the worst in the entire league - while Simon Taylor is second worse with an average of 2.43. Incredibly, Hawthorn have four of the top eight players for average frees against in the entire comp. For the first time this season last week Hawthorn ended up on the positive side of the frees against Melbourne, narrowly squeezing it in with 14 frees to 15. The Crows will hopefully play professionally, cop the bumps, and take full advantage of the frees that result. So far this year the Crows have only ended up on the bad side of frees against five times, but when they get rolled they really get rolled - averaging a free kick differential of 8 in games where they are on the negative side of the ledger, but only 3 in games where they are on the positive side of the ledger. It is entirely possible that one or more of the field umpires may have a stroke while trying to determine which team to disadvantage this weekend.



The Crows "stole back" the zone from Hawthorn at the end of 2008 after poaching the highly rated Todd Viney from their clutches to lead our midfield. Despite rumours of a rift between Viney and Craig, the Crows have continued to adapt the zone that they made work so well for them in the 05/06 years into a viable defensive strategy, but have been unable to come up with a structure that works when the clearances are lost.

Hawthorn meanwhile have continued to utilize their much-vaunted "rolling zone" this year but to less effect than last year, no doubt due to their lack of personnel in defence practically begging opposition teams to boot it long over the zone.

Fortunately, the Hawks are one of the very few teams that averages less clearances per game this season than the Crows, so hopefully the Crows can take full advantage of that and make the zone work for them. They have proven so far this year that once the ball goes forward of centre, it can be very difficult for the opposition to bring it back again.

The Crows' game plan appears to be the following - attempt to win the clearance and get the ball forward. If a mark is taken, or a point is scored, set up the midfield zone. The Crows have had much better results from allowing the defence to remain in place while the midfield zones than when they have the defence push up forward. From there, suffocate the opponent and force them wide and hopefully out of bounds where the Crows then attempt to again win another stoppage. If the Crows do not win the clearance, they rely on midfielders dropping back and Otten/Moran as third men up to stop the opponent from getting the ball. Obviously the more clearances that you cough up, the less likely this is to work well. At the very least the Hawthorn midfield must be stifled as much as possible with no quick ball allowed to move out.


Adelaide

Andy Otten - The Rising Star for round 9, Andy Otten's form this season has been sensational, and he has not looked like that nervous, frightened young kid we saw debut against the Hawks themselves last season, picking up three touches and ending up with a negative score in the Supercoach. Otten's game will be key to winning this match, as his ability to chip in as a third man up at a contest will be necessary to stop the marking prowess of Franklin and Roughhead, and his run and carry from defence will be crucial in breaking through Hawthorn's rolling zone. His willingness to take the game on will also hopefully result in our forward movements being swift, allowing us to take advantage of Hawthorn's depleted back line.

Patrick Dangerfield - Dangerfield was so close to a devastating game last weekend, looking extremely dangerous in the forward line, but his six shots on goal resulted in only 1 major, 4 behinds and one out on the full. His ability to find space on the lead, or to take a contested mark in tight is very good for a young kid, and his ability to keep the ball in the area if it's on the ground is just as good.

Chris Knights - Ten goals in the past three weeks, including five last week, have shown that Knights is a danger up forward for any team. He reads the ball impeccably, protects the drop-zone of the ball when marking, and has a long raking kick that seems to find the goals from all angles.

Jason Porplyzia - Brilliant goal-kicking accuracy has somewhat disguised the fact that the Porpoise has been down on form this season. Hopefully now that we have some good mid-sized players running around in the forward line he can stretch a depleted defence to take a few marks - and continue his flawless set shot record.

Kurt Tippett - Hawthorn simply do not have a match-up for Tippett in the forward line, which is the main reason I believe the Crows will persist with the three tall structure. With his ability to take a contested mark, and his improved goalkicking accuracy, Tippett could be up for a big day.

Hawthorn

Beau Muston - The good news story of the year so far, Muston made his debut at the tender age of 22 last week after three knee reconstructions and picked up 31 touches and a goal in a display that would have robbed Otten of his Rising Star nomination if Beau was a touch younger. It was the most dominant debut in recent memory. It will be extremely interesting to see if Muston will suffer from the "second game blues", or if he can back it up again.

Sam Mitchell - I reckon ten times a game this guy busts a ball out of the centre and pinpoints it straight to a forward. He does it every single game and I don't see any reason why it would be different this week. Perhaps we'll see if Doughty can give him the "Judd treatment" but I doubt it. Mitchell is one of my favourite players to watch - whenever he's not playing the Crows!!

Brendan Whitecross - Brendan is Hawthorn's own version of our Andy Otten. Very consistent so far for a youngster, and would have had a fair complaint at not getting the RS nod this week with 25 touches and 14 marks. If the Crows underestimate him it will be at their own peril.

Jarryd Roughhead - Jarryd has been in scintillating form for much of this season, and on his day has been devastating, such as his eight goal effort against Carlton that saw the Hawks run out 4 point winners. On the other hand, his down days have been quite poor, such as the 1 kick, no goal effort against Port Adelaide. A strong-bodied defender is required to go with Roughhead but then you need to deal with his athleticism. Rutten will get first go at him obviously, but it will be up to people like Otten and Moran to chip in and help out whenever possible. If he's not kept checked he will likely beat Rutten quite convincingly.


Michael Doughty vs Sam Mitchell - I am assuming that Mitchell will get the tag over Lewis. Doughty was fantastic last week on Chris Judd, and certainly can keep up with Mitchell athletically, but Mitchell doesn't need to touch the ball often to have a huge effect on a game. Unfortunately Mitchell does get a lot of the ball and has been awesome this year, averaging 29 touches a game, and if you take out 11 and 16 vs Sydney and Port respectively, has been averaging 34 touches a game. Sydney and Port obviously have two of the best tagging players in the league, highlighting how important it is to sit on Mitchell. It is no coincidence that Hawthorn lost to both Sydney and Port.

Kurt Tippett vs ??? - Probably Beau Dowler will get the job on Tippett, giving up 6cm and 8kg. If the Crows can get the ball down there fast enough, Tippett should have a field day on him, but if we get slowed down then the Hawks defence should be able to create pack situations and use leg speed to run it out. Tippett may also be useful in the ruck if Maric/Moran are getting beaten and worn out by the mature bodies of Taylor and Campbell - the latter has 11kg on Moran.

Nathan Bock vs Lance Franklin - After last year's effort on Franklin, the media's eyes would have already been on Bock if not for the added sensationalism of his criminal charge earlier in the year and his return from injury. Was it a once-off, or can Bock repeat the feat? Franklin's season so far has lacked the enormous bags of 2008, but has been extremely consistent nonetheless, scoring between 2-5 goals every match this season, and averaging over 3 goals a match.

Scott Thompson vs Brad Sewell - Scott Thompson is a barometre for the Crows and when he plays well, we usually win. Brad Sewell has been a revelation for the Hawks the past couple of years, capable of nullifying another's influence while collcting a tonne of the ball himself. Thompson clearly has relations with the wives of several umpires because he gets frees paid against him for HTB in even the most ridiculous of circumstances, and Sewell may find himself on the receiving end of a few soft decisions this Sunday.


The verdict: I liked very much what I saw from the Crows last week, and Hawthorn have been disappointing this year after their dominant form last year, but I still can't help but feel that the Crows are going to lose this match. Hawthorn is welcoming some serious class back into their side, their young kids are performing well, they are playing the only team in the competition with younger rucks than them, and our defence is underperforming at just the wrong time as of late. If both sides were to play to their best, with the current injury situation, it would be a very close match. With that in mind, I have more faith in Hawthorn's ability to get close to it's best for longer than I do in the Crows, and therefore I am tipping the Hawks by a handfull of goals.

My tip - Hawthorn by 18 points.

MUSASHI
You legend

Gold Stabby!!!


Great write up.

Should be a good game. After last week, you would think we are on the way up. And, Melbourne finished all over Hawthorn last week.

Crows by 28 points.

Dandy_GO said:

MUSASHI
You legend

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I prefer the Yamato.

wait what?

I lost it after the Dangerfield and Knights photos

Great stuff

Way too much time on your hands ...

Fantastic though!

Ok, so I'm officially worried.

Stabby, that was a brilliant write-up. Hilarious stuff.

BUT,

Please tell me you're not going to get fired with all of the time you're putting in to this and being a MOD. You can't possibly be doing any actual work!!

Thanks guys I love being given a license to ramble

DJ75 - I'm getting work done, slowly. But let's just say I haven't been the life of many parties lately

I'm still awaiting the entry from our Hawthorn participant atm. Should be up tomorrow morning at the latest.

Great write-up stabby, very...entertaining...

lol Bloody hell I thought you said you had a job.

Between that and stalking our young players, it doesn't leave much time for sleep.

haha, good stuff mate.

thanks for that!! great write up geez. funny stuff haha

Jesus talk about a hard act to follow! Incredible write up, both funny, and well written! Great insight to the crows.
Mine isnt as flash as my counterparts but here is my perspective

The Hawthorn Perspective

Hawthorn:
B: Guerra Brown Whitecross
HB: Birchall Dowler Dew
C: Bateman Lewis Young
HF: McGlynn Franklin Rioli
F: Williams Roughead Osborne
R: Taylor Sewell Mitchell
IC: Campbell Muston Murphy Moss

Hawthorn should come in with a line up of two changes, including the return of Dew who was dropped for disciplinary reasons after missing Thursdays training. I also think Clinton Young will return. He played in the reserves last week returning from injury and honestly didnt set the world on fire, but many times Box Hill performances doesnt hold out proven senior performers like Young. I also think Renouf will get stiffed again. Renouf performed well in the reserves, and even with the height of the crows forward line I still cant see us bringing in Renouf in the risk of negating our drive off the backline. Out goes Morton and Stokes. Morton Dropped, Stokes injured.

Match Ups:

Campbell Vs Tippett

Firstly I dont see Hawthorn sticking with this matchup for four quarters. Tippett poses big problems to the hawthorn defence. Last week Clarkson and Co. were stubborn in throwing Campbell to defence as Stefan Martin kicked two goals on Tom Murphy (189 cm). I think Clarkson will start the game with this match up and hope Taylor can battle it out in the ruck early. IF Hawthorn begin gaining a lead and some momentum we will see 'Bob' return to the ruck, and Murphy thrown on the young giant.

Murphy Vs Walker

Do I want to see this match up? No. Will it happen? Most likely. Murphy has had to battle out of his height and weight all year and nothing will change here. Taylor isnt dramatically taller, but the kid has pace for his size and can really damage the Hawthorn defence.

Brown Vs Porplyzia

The strong and versatile Jason Porplyzia will cause some troubles for Hawthorn, and Brown must play tight for four quarters to stop the crows leading goal kicker.

Whitecross Vs Knights

This match up is most likely to happen. Whitecross is serving his apprenticeship in defence to improve his defending ability and he will have a huge test with the inform Knights.

Rutten Vs Roughead

Roughead comes against his hardest match up for the year. Rutten is the ideal match up for Jarryd, and there will be no oppurtunity for an easy goal this weekend. I unfortunatly cant see Roughead keep up his average of 3 goals against Rutten.

Bock Vs Franklin

Franko will look to bring Bock upfield all game. We know how damaging Bock can be on the rebound and from kick outs. Look for Franklin to start at the high CHF position and move up and down the wings early.


The Switch. I believe we will start with a standard forward set up with Roughead deep, and Franklin high. If Roughead and co. do not produce goals with Franklin up field, the switch will happen with Franklin deep and Roughead up high. Both forwards have the freedom to swap if they arent getting a touch and I think it will be important this week against two gun defenders. The question is does Rutten follow Roughead high? Or does Bock? If Bock follows Roughead, does Rutten have the agility inside the forward 50 for Franklin?

My Prediction

This match up will be decided in the midfield. Hawthorn needs Osbourne, Rioli, Moss, Williams, Dew and McGlynn getting on their score sheet to succeed. Franklin and Roughead are facing probably the best defensive duo in the AFL. If they cannot firstly dominate the midfield allowing Campbell to pinch hit in defence, they may be forced to throw 'Bob' in the guts, leaving our defence once again undersized. Adelaide will cause headaches for Hawthorn with their defensive set ups but also their multiple scoring options. Its alot easier to cover teams with one or two key options then a list with 5 genuine options.

Hawthorn to win by 13 points, in a close low scoring account. Franklin to kick 3, Roughead to go scoreless. Muston to continue from his stellar debut. Knights to continue his hot form

Awesome write up cmndstab. Piss funny.

Here is my theory on the rolling zone. Hawthorn only implemented it once Dew was recruited.

Too be honest I would have thought that this game is going to be won or lost in the midfield.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

Let's see next week's write-up top that.

Thats gold Jerry, thats gold!

That's awesome, thanks for that Roughie


I must admit, I don't actually know a huge amount about the Hawthorn line-up past the big names (hopefully it wasn't too obvious ) so it's great to see who some of the lesser-known defenders will go. Whitecross on Knights will be interesting, both seem to be ball magnets who can mark the ball.


Really appreciate the kind comments from all

Well done to the both of you, but particularly Stabby who has taken rambling to a new level as an art form!!

Absolutely first class work there Stabby - I loved it!!

Well done!!

Great job Stabbie (and thanks Roughie for your insights). Seriously though, you really need to get a life dude! hehe

kulak said:

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

Let's see next week's write-up top that.

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Thats what I was thinkin'.
Good job.

Just on Stevo -I know he's had a difficult time on the rebound from that shocking cheek injury but I thought he showed some good signs last week.
Not that the ball went down there very often but more often than not Stevo read the ball well when it did, and cleaned up.

hmm Whitecross on Knights.

Would be the match up of neither showing respect.

Knights to have 30 and kick 3, Whitecross to have 30 as well.

jenny61_99 said:

Great job Stabbie (and thanks Roughie for your insights). Seriously though, you really need to get a life dude! hehe

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Hahaha, us Maths PhD students are not exactly known for our exciting lifestyles


topjars - totally agree. After a month of disappointing performances from Stevens I thought he was back to his usual self last week for really the first time since the injury. Mind you, he didn't go forward at all that I saw so perhaps that part of his game is still recovering.

Well the acid tests just keep coming for AFC as part of a horror draw we all knew was coming. Hawthorn has shown in recent weeks they are great team...really on the ropes when they went to Freo, but ground out a win then backed it up last week. They seemed on the ropes but have kept punching showing great depth in their list t overcome injury and a poor preseason.

No doubt we are helped by having Bock back which also frees up Stevens to go forward...but their midfiled is just so tough and a well balanced mix. I think their strength in their efficiency with the ball, they kick beautifully and rarely miss targets. They give up plenty of contested posession and rely on forcing turnovers, then using the ball well. To win we must be able to sustain great pressure on the ball carrier

Peter J said:

Well the acid tests just keep coming for AFC as part of a horror draw we all knew was coming. Hawthorn has shown in recent weeks they are great team...really on the ropes when they went to Freo, but ground out a win then backed it up last week. They seemed on the ropes but have kept punching showing great depth in their list t overcome injury and a poor preseason.

No doubt we are helped by having Bock back which also frees up Stevens to go forward...but their midfiled is just so tough and a well balanced mix. I think their strength in their efficiency with the ball, they kick beautifully and rarely miss targets. They give up plenty of contested posession and rely on forcing turnovers, then using the ball well. To win we must be able to sustain great pressure on the ball carrier

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Heh, was looking at our draw the other day.

Rounds 16 to 20 .....

Great preview, just a couple of quick points. When looking at matchups at either end of the ground it shows the importance of the midfield this week. As hawthorns short defence match up well with adelaides forwards and hawthorns forwards are well matched by the Adelaide defence.
Tippett - Birchall
Danger-Brown
Stevens-Dowler
Porp-Murphy
Knights-Whitecross
Walker-Muston

Buddy-Bock
Roughie-Rutten
Mcleod-Rioli
Osborne-stiffi
Williams-Ottens
Dew-Symes

midfield
Mitchell-Doughty
Bateman-Vanberlo
Sewell-thompson
Vince-McGlynn
Lewis-Goodwin

The other key will be how much knowledge Todd viney has of hawthorn players and setups. I personally think that the home factor will help adelaide get over the line unless Hawthorn are at the top of their game.