Competitions 2014 Ladder Prediction

[Vooligan]

Mods - If a thread already exists, feel free to delete/merge. I did a search, and went back to page 7 (October) and couldn't find one that covered the entire ladder.

It will be very interesting to look back on this at the end of the year, considering there are so many question marks.

Port - Are they the real deal? Can they back up their form or be the disappointment of 2014.

Essendon - Obviously only missed finals because of the stripped points. Will they be a threat under Bomber?

Richmond - Finally made finals, will they continue improving?

Adelaide - Definitely have the talent to do well, but our injuries continue to mount. Very hard to predict where we will finish.

Hawthorn - Will they have the premiership hangover of 2009?

Melbourne - Can they improve under Roos?

West Coast - On talent, they are top 4. Injuries have been their downfall. Can they have a clean injury year and be successful under the new coach?

I finally did my ladder prediction, I went through round by round and worked out the winners from each round and then tallied them up.

Yes, I am bias as all hell, and I didn't think I booked the Crows down for so many wins. Although, I booked down for the Crows to be beaten by Port Adelaide in both Showdowns, and I booked for Collingwood to beat Crows twice. So here goes.

Hawthorn - 20
Geelong - 17
Fremantle - 17
Crows - 15
Port - 13
Sydney - 13
West Coast - 12
Essendon - 12

Richmond - 11
Carlton - 11
North Melbourne - 10
Collingwood - 9
Gold Coast - 9
Melbourne - 8
Brisbane - 7
Western Bulldogs - 6
GWS - 4
St. Kilda - 3

PS. The Ninth finish for Richmond was unintended........ (seriously)

 

[Mattrox]

Mayblooms
The Syds
Freo
Pies
Norf
Crows
Port Power
Footscray

Carlolton
Injectendon
Gary Ablett
Handbaggers
9tn Mond
E-girls
GWS
Melgone
Fizroy Bears
Seaford


Sent from my GT-I9295 using Tapatalk

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

End of Minor Round

1. Fremantle
2. Hawthorn
3. Collingwood
4. Sydney
5. Adelaide
6. Geelong
7. North Melbourne
8. Gold Coast
9. Essendon
10. Richmond
11. Port Adelaide
12. West Coast
13. Carlton
14. Western Bulldogs
15. Brisbane
16. GW Sydney
17. Melbourne
18. St Kilda

 

[huludicidal]

End Of Minor Round:

1. Hawthorn
2. Fremantle
3. Sydney
4. North Melbourne
5. Geelong
6. Richmond
7. Essendon
8. Collingwood

9. West Coast
10. Adelaide
11. Gold Coast
12. Western Bulldogs
13. Port Adelaide
14. Carlton
15. Melbourne
16. Brisbane
17. GWS
18. St Kilda

I wanted to put us higher, but the injuries are mounting and the outlook on Tex is looking a lot bleaker than it did 6 weeks ago. 12 wins is our ceiling now I fear. More likely 10-11. 2015-18 is our real premiership window anyway I reckon so it's not the end of the world.

I always like to select one bolter in my top 6 (there always is one so why not have a crack rather than being boring) and this year it's North. I think they will have learnt from last year's chokes, and have added some nice talent to an already well-rounded playing list IMO. That said, they could miss the 8. I just like them.

West Coast are probably the hardest team to place this year I reckon. They could finish anywhere between 3rd and 14th. Good luck with predicting where that will be.

The Bulldogs are a team on the rise IMO. With a nice young list, an excellent coach and the softest draw in the history of the sport, I think 12th is very conservative. Could easily sneak into the 8 if things go right.

Wouldn't mind having large amounts of cash on Melb, Bris, GWS and StK finishing in the bottom 4 (in no particular order). That is quite simply going to happen.

Also wouldn't mind having cash on Mick Malthouse to be the first coach fired in 2014. That list is a complete joke, and he's done absolutely nothing to address their glaring issues since arriving.

I've gone pretty low on Port, largely because I see a lot of similarities with us at the start of last year. I rate them, but I just think they'll have a down year. Their draw isn't good.

I really wanted to leave Richmond out of my top 8 but their preseason form has been eye-catching. Cotchin looks like he'll be spending a lot more time up forward, and I'm backing him to win the Brownlow. An absolute beast of a player. They are by no means a premiership threat, but I reckon 5th to 9th is a safe bet.

 

[Justinpa1]

My Top Eight
1. Fremantle 18-4
2. Sydney 17-5
3. Hawthorn 17-5
4. Geelong 15-7
5. North Melb 15-7
6. Port Adelaide 14-8
7. Adelaide Crows 13-9
8. Essendon 13-9

Week one of the Finals would look like this-
Fremantle v Geelong at Subiaco
Sydney v Hawthorn at the SCG
PORT ADELAIDE v ADELAIDE CROWS at Adelaide Oval
North Melb v Essendon at the MCG

 

[Vooligan]

PORT ADELAIDE v ADELAIDE CROWS at Adelaide Oval

...And we thought getting tickets to round 2 was hard. Imagine this!

 

[Justinpa1]

...And we thought getting tickets to round 2 was hard. Imagine this!

I know, but it will be a lot easier than it was in 2005, I remember taking a sickie and lining up for 4 hours outside my local chemist which had a BASS outlet on the Monday. It's amazing how much easier it is these days on the Internet, I had my Showdown tickets on Wednesday morning by 9:02am, so much easier!

 

[Vooligan]

I know, but it will be a lot easier than it was in 2005, I remember taking a sickie and lining up for 4 hours outside my local chemist which had a BASS outlet on the Monday. It's amazing how much easier it is these days on the Internet, I had my Showdown tickets on Wednesday morning by 9:02am, so much easier!

And on the other hand, it will be member neutral. Just as much chance as the PAPs members.

 

[AFC979810]

Also wouldn't mind having cash on Mick Malthouse to be the first coach fired in 2014. That list is a complete joke, and he's done absolutely nothing to address their glaring issues since arriving.

I will take that bet. Whatever odds you want I will give them to you.

Lets get this straight - you are talking about 3 time premiership coach, 2 time all australian coach Mick Malthouse right?

There is absolutely zero chance of Carlton firing Mick Malthouse after just 2 years. He could finish bottom this year and they wouldn't fire him.

They hired him to completely turn the list over and build a premiership side. This can't be achieved in two seasons.

 

[huludicidal]

I will take that bet. Whatever odds you want I will give them to you.

Lets get this straight - you are talking about 3 time premiership coach, 2 time all australian coach Mick Malthouse right?

There is absolutely zero chance of Carlton firing Mick Malthouse after just 2 years. He could finish bottom this year and they wouldn't fire him.

They hired him to completely turn the list over and build a premiership side. This can't be achieved in two seasons.

Well he's doing an absolutely s**t job of turning the list over mate. Their glaring need for the last 6 years has been a lack of KPP's, and he's brought in nobody to address it. Yay, Daisy's there. I can't think of a type of player they needed less than him.

Will he get fired? Yeah, maybe not, I was being overdramatic. Will they make the finals? Not a chance in hell.

As for your statement about them finishing bottom and not firing him, that's just rubbish and you know it. It would be a Malcolm Blight at St Kilda moment and he'd either walk or be pushed.

 

[AFC979810]

Well he's doing an absolutely s**t job of turning the list over mate. Their glaring need for the last 6 years has been a lack of KPP's, and he's brought in nobody to address it. Yay, Daisy's there. I can't think of a type of player they needed less than him.

Will he get fired? Yeah, maybe not, I was being overdramatic. Will they make the finals? Not a chance in hell.

As for your statement about them finishing bottom and not firing him, that's just rubbish and you know it. It would be a Malcolm Blight at St Kilda moment and he'd either walk or be pushed.

How do you completely turn over a list in 15 months?

He is under absolutely zero pressure this year. He has won flags at two different clubs and been a head coach for almost 20 years. There are very very few people as respected in this game as Malthouse.

As to Carlton finishing last and him retaining a job - he would absolutely keep his job. Carlton are in this for the long haul. If you look at the successful clubs over the years - they have a head coach who directs the football club in place for years. The way you don't win flags is by firing one of the best coaches of all time after two seasons.

They are every chance of making the finals this year. They have made the finals in 4 of the last 6 years without any quality KPP's. You don't need KPP's to make the finals (you do need them to win flags though).

If they get their midfield healthy, they have one of the most talented groups going round - Kruezer, Murphy, Judd, Gibbs, Daisy. That alone is going to win them games.

 

[amer]

1. Fremantle
2. Hawthorn
3. Port Adelaide
4. Sydney
5. North Melbourne
6. Geelong
7. Gold Coast
8. Essendon
9. Richmond
10. Collingwood
11. West Coast
12. Western Bulldogs
13. Carlton
14. Adelaide
15. Melbourne
16. Brisbane
17. GWS
18. St Kilda

 

[huludicidal]

How do you completely turn over a list in 15 months?

He is under absolutely zero pressure this year. He has won flags at two different clubs and been a head coach for almost 20 years. There are very very few people as respected in this game as Malthouse.

As to Carlton finishing last and him retaining a job - he would absolutely keep his job. Carlton are in this for the long haul. If you look at the successful clubs over the years - they have a head coach who directs the football club in place for years. The way you don't win flags is by firing one of the best coaches of all time after two seasons.

They are every chance of making the finals this year. They have made the finals in 4 of the last 6 years without any quality KPP's. You don't need KPP's to make the finals (you do need them to win flags though).

If they get their midfield healthy, they have one of the most talented groups going round - Kruezer, Murphy, Judd, Gibbs, Daisy. That alone is going to win them games.

Well they actually didn't make the finals last year (getting in only after another team gets booted out for cheating is hardly an achievement of note).

And if you need KPPs to win flags, why hasn't Malthouse brought any in? 15 months is shitloads of time to bring 1 or 2 KPPs in. Why didn't they trade Yarran for one? Why didn't they take one with a first round draft pick? It's mind-boggling.

I have absolutely no confidence that Malthouse himself is in this for the long haul. Might run after his contract is up when he realises this group hs no hope of a flag in the next 10 years.

Anyway, clearly we have differing views on Carlton. We'll see how it unfolds.

 

[Tex200]

I wouldn't say Carlton have no KPF at all. Henderson is very good as are Waite and Kruezer if on the park.

Their fleet of mids/runners are very good. Will clearly be a finals contender.

 

[Ravenous Crow]

1. Hawthorn
2. Fremantle
3. Sydney
4. Tealster Confederacy
5. North Melbourne
6. Richmond
7. Collingwood
8. Geelong

9. Carlton
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Adelaide
12. Essendon
13. Gold Coast
14. West Coast
15. Melbourne
16. GWS

Trash pile: St Kilda, Brisbane

It was pretty tricky squeezing teams into the eight. I just think injuries and 2 years worth of missed kids are going to really count against us. It may not seem like a huge deal now but watch as 2012/2013 draftees emerge from other teams and help their sides improve.

Port I could see going either way. Wouldn't surprise me if younger players like Neade and Wines dropped off slightly after having bumper first years. But if Polec can bring anything near what he showed in the pre season then it will more than make up for it. That guy looked like a god, potentially could be their best player. How the fk did we miss him..

 

[Golumless]

1. Fremantle
2. Sydney
3. Geelong
4. Hawthorn
5. Adelaide
6. West Coast
7. North Melbourne
8. Essendon

9. Richmond
10. Port Adelaide
11. Collingwood
12. Western Bulldogs
13. Gold Coast
14. Carlton
15. GWS
16. Brisbane
17. Melbourne
18. Saints

 

[Tex200]

Freo
Hawks
Swans
Crows
North
Cats
Carlton
West Coast

Port
Collingwood
Essendon
Richmond
Gold Coast
Bulldogs
Lions
Melb
GWS
Saints

 

[kimirocks]

1. Fremantle
2. Hawthorn
3. Geelong
4. Sydney
5. Port Adelaide
6. West Coast
7. North Melbourne
8. Adelaide

9. Collingwood
10. Richmond
11. Gold Coast
12. Western Bulldogs
13. Carlton
14. Essendon
15. Brisbane
16. Melbourne
17. GWS
18. St Kilda

Realistically I think 13 or 14 teams could finish anywhere in the top 8, going to be a great season - crows could go from 3rd to 13th, probably going to go somewhere in the middle, I can't see us being worse than last year because that was pathetic.

 

[kimirocks]

1. Fremantle
2. Sydney
3. Geelong
4. Hawthorn
5. Adelaide
6. West Coast
7. North Melbourne
8. Essendon

9. Richmond
10. Port Adelaide
11. Collingwood
12. Western Bulldogs
13. Gold Coast
14. West Coast
15. GWS
16. Brisbane
17. Melbourne
18. GWS

St Kilda and Carlton swallowed by fire-breathing dragons?

 

[Crowked]

1. Fremantle
2. Hawthorn
3. Port Adelaide
4. Sydney
5. North Melbourne
6. Geelong
7. Gold Coast
8. Essendon
9. Richmond
10. Collingwood
11. West Coast
12. Western Bulldogs
13. Carlton
14. Adelaide
15. Melbourne
16. Brisbane
17. GWS
18. St Kilda

Glass half full?

My god you must think we have a s**t list.

 

[Crowked]

1. Hawthorn
2. Fremantle
3. Adelaide
4. Sydney
5. West Coast
6. North Melbourne
7. Geelong
8. Richmond
9. Essendon
10. Port Adelaide
11. Collingwood
12. Gold Coast
13. Carlton
14. Western Bulldogs
15. Brisbane
16. GWS
17. Melbourne
18. St Kilda

Yeh, I'm happy with that.

 

[Kraven]

1. Hawthorn
2. Fremantle
3. Sydney
4. Geelong
5. West Coast
6. Richmond
7. Collingwood
8. Essendon

9. Adelaide
10. Port
11. Gold Coast
12. Norf
13. Carlton
14. Bulldogs
15. Melbourne
16. Giants
17. Brisbane
18. Saints

 

[amer]

Glass half full?

My god you must think we have a s**t list.

It's not particularly good anymore, this is true. We had real chances this past few years and muffed them with crap training programs and player retention failures.

But we're still good enough to string wins together and hang in that bracket of 3-4 sides outside the 8. Just with our injury toll, we'll lose a couple more than we otherwise would have imo.

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

1. Hawks
2. Freo
3. Sydney
4. Adelaide
5. West Coast
6. North
7. Geelong
8. Carlton

9. Richmond
10. Essendon
11. Collingwood
12. Port
13. Gold Coast
14. Bulldogs
15. Melb
16. GWS
17. Lions
18. St Kilda

 

[WaynesWorld19]

1. Hawks
2. Freo
3. Sydney
4. Adelaide
5. West Coast
6. North
7. Geelong
8. Carlton

9. Richmond
10. Essendon
11. Collingwood
12. Port
13. Gold Coast
14. Bulldogs
15. Melb
16. GWS
17. Lions
18. St Kilda

That's a pretty damn good effort!

I am not sure on Geelong & Carlton though .....Richmond have an easy draw so i expect them at 7 or 8