- Jan 7, 2010
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When Sydney slapped a Covid caveat on the 2023 draft last month it sounded stale.
Hadn’t Hawthorn draftee Nick Watson drilled 70 goals for the year?
Didn’t Melbourne recruiter Jason Taylor just make an 8000km round trip – to regional WA town Esperance to interview draft prospect Koltyn Tholstrup?
Wasn’t Alastair Clarkson ringing Daniel Curtin’s doorbell in Perth the day before the draft?
From the cheap seats it seemed normal programming had resumed. But revered Swans list boss Kinnear Beatson was blunt.
“We’re still seeing the ramifications of Covid,” Beatson told the AFL website days before the draft.
“It won’t surprise me in 10 years’ time … that players taken in the 20s and 30s will look as though they’ve had a more successful career than some taken 10-20.”
Swans list boss Kinnear Beatson was blunt in his assessment. Picture: Michael Klein.
Perhaps the buffet of celebratory coverage buried Beatson’s claim … after all, 64 prospects had their footy prayers answered.
But it has echoed around the industry since, with several experts adamant their talent boards had been warped by this wave of prospects – particularly the Victorians – having their under-15-16 seasons (2020-21) predominantly wiped.
The recruiting blind spots left by the Covid lag should rapidly recede next year.
But if Beatson believes boys who were repeatedly brushed will bloom brighter than some of this year’s beauties because of those blind spots then it makes you wonder …
How the hell is history going to remember the 2020 draft? That was the crop chosen following a cancelled season in Victoria.
Let’s be cruel, and then let’s be clear. Thirteen out of the 59 players drafted in 2020 have already been delisted.
A further six have changed clubs. And the top 10 reads like a philosophy exam – filled with questions that still cannot be answered.
DELISTED 2020 DRAFTEES
Pick 24 Blake Coleman (BL) 0 gamesPick 31 Liam McMahon (Coll) 0
Pick 34 Fraser Rosman (Melb) 0
Pick 35 Connor Downie (Haw) 2
Pick 38 James Rowe (Ade) 36
Pick 39 Josh Eyre (Ess) 0
Pick 42 Phoenix Spicer (NM) 12
Pick 45 Tom Highmore (St K) 16
Pick 47 Nick Stevens (Gee) 0
Pick 53 Cody Brand (Ess) 0
Pick 54 Joel Western (Frem) 4
Pick 57 Isiah Winder (WC) 7
Pick 58 Cameron Fleeton (GWS) 2
Will No. 3 pick Will Phillips ever morph into the manic trainer and future captain that North Melbourne (and its ex-coach David Noble) had hoped for?
Hawks fans must be wondering whether No. 6 pick Denver Grainger-Barras will mature into the committed key defender who coach Sam Mitchell trusts to play week-in week-out?
What about Blues recruit Elijah Hollands? Has the penny dropped for the No. 7 selection?
And then there is Essendon’s talented trifecta – Nik Cox, Archie Perkins and Zach Reid.
Will Cox and Reid prove to be freakish footballers? Or fragile footballers?
It is hard not to feel for the Bombers. Of all the years to collect three golden draft choices it had to be the one where it felt as if there were 10 minutes of footy played.
If that all seemed cruel, then now it is time to be clear.
Slow, or even stalled development, of players from 2020 is to be expected. They need time. There are not many draftees deserving of ticks just yet — but it would be crazy to go early with a cross.
As one club said: “Our kids came in so underdeveloped physically it wasn’t funny — you just have to give these kids a longer period”.
Another club noted: “It wasn’t just the games they didn’t play, it was the 200-300 training sessions they didn’t go to”.
Zach Reid, draft selection #10 (L), Archie Perkins, draft selection #9 and Nik Cox, draft selection #8 (R). (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
That’s probably why Luke Beveridge felt like he was banging his head against a wall when he was asked every week about Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.
Will he debut this week? Why not? What about next week?
Yes, he was the No. 1 pick. But back then ‘Marra’ had played a couple of VFL games in two years, hardly the platform for a full-forward to make his AFL debut.
That said, look at Ugle-Hagan now. Long billed as the next Buddy it is him and Brownlow Medal shaker (fourth last year) Errol Gulden who have made up for lost time and launched box-office careers from the Covid crop.
They were also draft gimmes – Ugle-Hagan an NGA selection and Gulden an academy pick.
But what about those yet to make their mark? Perhaps Conor Stone (GWS), Bailey Laurie (Melb), Dominic Bedendo (WB) and Finlay Macrae (Coll)
So if it isn’t the players’ fault, what about those who picked them? What if your club buggered up its talent ID?
Similarly, this is not the draft to get snarky at scouts.
In 2020 recruiters were locked down and then stood down without pay.
Some were eventually invited back to work with their resources slashed, and told to rank Victoria’s hottest draft prospects without watching them play that season.
Good luck.
Errol Gulden had a spectacular 2023. Photo by Phil Hillyard
Ugle-Hagan’s stock continues to rise. Photo by Michael Klein.
Some clubs resorted to comparing Phillips’ under-17 performances with reigning No. 1 pick Matt Rowell at the same age.
How else could you contextualise Phillips when — like all Victorians — his under-18th year was blank.
One club remained surprised Essendon opted for three Victorians in the top 10, given greater evidence was available on interstate prospects who were allowed to pull on their boots in 2020.
But make no mistake, there are no regrets at Tullamarine. After all, Cox burst on to the scene in 2021 and was Matthew Lloyd’s Rising Star tip at round 11 before injuries hit.
He was one for the old-fashioned eye of recruiting.
Cox had run a 6min 2km time trial, played as a bottom-ager for Vic Metro and, while he was a low-possession player, his skills on both sides were sublime.
ORIGINAL TOP TEN
Pick 1 Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (NGA) (WB) 45 gamesPick 2 Riley Thilthorpe (Ade) 46
Pick 3 Will Phillips (NM) 32
Pick 4 Logan McDonald (Syd) 44
Pick 5 Braeden Campbell (Academy) (Syd) 48
Pick 6 Denver Grainger-Barras (Haw) 28
Pick 7 Elijah Hollands (GC/Carl) 14
Pick 8 Nik Cox (Ess) 33
Pick 9 Archie Perkins (Ess) 62
Pick 10 Zach Reid (Ess) 8
Reid, too, has been a regular in the rehab room. But Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney, among others, ranked the 204cm defender highly in 2020 … just as Richmond did his younger brother, Archie, who joined West Coast last week.
The Bombers once watched Reid run riot from a wing in a rare game for Gippsland.
Perkins has pumped out 62 games (second only to Gulden from 2020) and shapes as a 200-gamer.
Coach Brad Scott just has to decide … is that forward of the footy? Or as a big-bodied midfielder?
Imagine if the Bombers can develop a diamond or two from the most daunting of drafts?
Essendon started with No. 8 that season and then secured No. 9 for Joe Daniher (compensation) and No. 10 from Carlton for Adam Saad.
It was more situation than strategic.
But one club defied the norm … Geelong.
A bearded Gillon McLachlan presents the 2020 AFL draft.
As a rival said: “We were trying to sell out of that draft because it was a volatile market. The value of a first-round pick was lessened because of the market situation”.
Geelong had done just that in trade period. The Cats coughed up three early picks for Jeremy Cameron (GWS) – but then they went shopping for a way back in to the first round.
And they meant business.
Their future first-round pick was on the table, and as the annual ‘the cliff is coming for the Cats’ off-season commentary circled it seemed an attractive offer.
Richmond had showed the most interest before the draft and so the Cats called at No. 20 when it was on the clock. Macrae had just been made a Magpie and so the Tigers pulled the trigger, pulling a precious pick out of one difficult draft and placing it in the next one.
It left Geelong grinning. The Cats grabbed Max Holmes at No. 20 in what was the boldest call of footy’s most bizarre draft.
This kid had played one – yes, one – Coates League game; in 2019 (he broke his arm that year and Covid killed 2020).
SAM LANDSBERGER’S RE-RANKED TOP 10
Pick 1 Errol Gulden (Syd) (Originally No.32)Pick 2 Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (WB) (No.1)
Pick 3 Max Holmes (Gee) (No.20)
Pick 4 Logan McDonald (Syd) (No.4)
Pick 5 Braeden Campbell (Syd) (No.5)
Pick 6 Oliver Henry (Coll/Gee) (No.17)
Pick 7 Heath Chapman (No.14)
Pick 8 Beau McCreery (Coll) (No.44)
Pick 9 Riley Thilthorpe (Ade) (No.2)
Pick 10 Archie Perkins (Ess) (No.9)
But the contending Cats had perennially been picking at points in the draft where a Holmes-type was history. So when else were they going to gain access to one of the very best runners? This kid was elite and had a strong body to boot.
Holmes’ mother is former Olympian Lee Naylor and Max won the under-18 400m hurdles in 2019. By draft night he had grown 12cm and put on 12kg since scouts had last seen him play school footy.
Remember this year when Max motored home in the grand final sprint at the MCG?
Geelong mined Max’s junior coaches for information and when those answers aligned with its opinions it grew fonder.
There was one slight problem however. How does a list management team convince a premiership coach (Chris Scott) and football boss (Simon Lloyd) they should trade their future first-round pick for a kid there is bugger all vision of?
Powerbrokers backed the plan and, save for a 2022 grand final week hammy weak, it has paid off to the Max.
Geelong’s gamble on Holmes appears to have paid off. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
After all, every club had access to the same evidence that year and so the Cats weren’t going to be caught napping.
Truth be told, Richmond liked Holmes, too.
The Tigers knew the upside from his family history, but moving pick No. 20 into 2021 – and then converting one-time rookie pick Mabior Chol into a second-round selection – helped them reload with five picks inside 30.
It was a golden draft hand coming down from a dynasty and the Tigers still have high hopes that several of Tom Brown (No. 17), Tyler Sonsie (No. 28), Sam Banks (No. 29) and Judson Clarke (No. 30) will take flight.
As for No. 9 pick Josh Gibcus — you can replace ‘high hopes’ with ‘supreme confidence’.
Trading out No. 20 in 2020 did not mean the Tigers went home empty-handed.
Richmond recruiter Matt Clarke and his then-right-hand man Will Thursfield (now North Melbourne chief recruiter) spent Melbourne’s early lockdowns surfing the web for Richmond’s next star.
“There was a fair bit of footy still being played outside Victoria at the time,” Clarke told the Herald Sun.
“We treated every weekend per normal – just that we couldn’t travel.
“We set up a schedule, as we normally would, with the games being played, allocated them to guys and we would just watch live streams, rather than waiting to sit back and watch edited vision during the week.
“It might be, ‘OK, at 11am I’m going to do the SANFL under-18s game, and then I’ll flick to the Launceston v Glenorchy TSL game, which is on YouTube in the afternoon and watch it live and write notes from that’.”
The Victorian first round draft picks from the 2020 draft. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Some senior recruiting figures like Derek Hine (Collingwood) and David Walls (Fremantle) evacuated Victoria via their club’s hubs for a live look at prospects.
But Clarke set up the SANFL app on the Apple TV in his front room, while the QAFL’s strong YouTube connection beamed down the first glimpse of the next Tiger – Samson Ryan (pick 40 in 2020).
“We were watching the big fella play for Sherwood up there,” Clarke said.
“We had a guy on the ground in Queensland watching live at that point too, and he was giving us good direction.”
The Tigers did not need a ruck when Ryan roared to life on the small screen.
But Callum Coleman-Jones was in strife in the hub and he and Chol each had 12 months’ left on their contracts and so selecting Samson stacked up.
As Jack Riewoldt told the Herald Sun this year: “The one thing about Samson is he’s got a lot of talent, but he is an extremely hard worker and diligent. He’s always the last one off the track and trying to get better at a lot of things”.
Ryan, Maurice Rioli Jr and Geelong’s future first-rounder made for a nice post-premiership package.
So how exactly did clubs rank prospects who had barely played in order?
“You had to go back over all the vision you had of any sort of footy from under-15s and 16s,” Clarke explained.
“Every trial match that we could get our hands on, even if it wasn’t coded we’d convert it into our sports code huddle, our software, and code players out to actually get a good look at them.
“It was limited, so we were relying on as much edited vision as possible.
“Obviously the boys did a few state combines, but it was the most difficult year.”
The Tigers discovered Samson Ryan on YouTube. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
At least one player was taken in the top 10 by a club whose main recruiting man had never attended one of his games.
It was reported the Kangas only spoke to Phillips once before pouncing at pick No.3.
Ollie Lord, the No. 49 pick who lit up last year’s qualifying final to look more like a top-15 talent, was quizzed by clubs over Zoom while sitting in his dormitory at Geelong Grammar.
It was all very odd.
Post-fire sale, Collingwood crushed it. The Pies picked Oliver Henry (now Geelong), Finlay Macrae, Reef McInnes (academy), Caleb Poulter (now Western Bulldogs) and premiership stars Beau McCreery and Jack Ginnivan (now Hawthorn).
OK, a few have departed. But they will stand the test of time as fine selections.
But the draft’s lottery-theme continued in 2021 and, after securing Nick Daicos, Collingwood chose South Australians Arlo Draper (gone), Cooper Murley (gone) and Harvey Harrison.
Back to reality, perhaps.
Unrestricted access to attend live games and conduct house visits again been a godsend for the best spotters. Why?
“Watching live you get off-ball behaviours, you get context of the game, you get the ability of players to lift when it’s really needed for their team,” one expert said.
“The vision is restricted to where the ball is, you don’t see all the lead-up.
“It might be how the kid takes it when he doesn’t get the ball kicked to him or an umpires’ decision.”
As for Zooms versus house calls?
“You get no feel for neighbourhood, how the house is looked after, very limited contact with siblings and mum and dad, because it’s just on the screen,” the expert said.
“Most clubs now do home visits, whereas if the Zoom was deemed to be better they would’ve stayed that way.”
