Training 2021 Pre-Season

[SaintsSeptember]

For the people who think that Hannebery hasn't been worth it, I would encourage you to revisit what we have actually paid for him.

When assessing a trade that involves draft picks, I think it's more important that we consider what players were available for selection between the traded pick, and the teams next pick as this is what was essentially lost, not what the other team drafted as for all we know, the two teams could have had entirely different rankings of the players taken during that window.

We traded Pick 39 and our 2019 2nd Round Pick for Hannebery and Pick 28

We then traded Pick 28 for Pick 36 and Pick 46

Pick 39 is a bit confusing because it was traded to us from West Coast and then was absorbed into Sydney using it to bid on Blakey from their academy. So if we had have kept it, it would have essentially been taken after what was the last pick of round 2 (43 - Jack Ross) and the first pick of round 3 (44 - Justin McInerny). Given we drafted Parker 3 picks later, the only players we could have possibly missed out on are McInerny, Curtis Taylor or Ben Cavarra.

Pick 36 moved out to Pick 41, which we used on Jack Bytel. Pick 46 moved to Pick 47, which we used on Matthew Parker.

Our 2019 2nd Round Pick ultimately stretched out to Pick 36, which Sydney used on Elijah Taylor (Yikes), our next pick was Ryan Byrnes at pick 52. So essentially we lost access to a group of players including Elijah Taylor, Keidean Coleman, Chad Warner and a bunch of other guys who haven't done anything of not.

So from a draft capital perspective, we secured the following:

Daniel Hannebery, Jack Bytel and Matthew Parker

We gave up the possibility to secure two of the following:

(McInerny / Curtis Taylor / Cavarra**) and (Elijah Taylor / Keidan Coleman / Chad Warner)

**There is a chance that Bytel could have also been in this group, however we would have allowed Melbourne, Sydney, North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs a chance to snag him.

From a salary perspective, we take a far bigger hit. It was reported that the salary was around $800k P/A. There were rumours that Sydney would pay some of it, however I don't believe that ever came to fruition. This is where we need to combine what was reported with some healthy speculation. Hannebery was due to have his contract expire in 2021, however we gave him five years (with the fifth having a games trigger which will apparently not be met.).

I would not be surprised, if the total value of the contract was around $3.5M, looking something like this:

2019: $1M
2020: $800k
2021: $600k
2022: $500k
2023: $500k (with trigger)

This would have given him his contracted $800k P/A over the following 3 years, plus give him a further year of financial security, with a trigger for another year as a 33 year old if his body held up.

So the question needs to be asked whether this salary, particularly over 2019-2021 could have been used to entice better talent to the club? I would suggest it would be very unlikely. It would have seemed even more so in 2018, when the idea of luring guys like Crouch and Hill would have been unthinkable. Could we have used it to front load our kids? sure, but would we have just been paying kids more than they deserved, would have have helped us long term? Given that guys like Clark / Coffield / King / Paton / Marshall were all on their first contracts, I don't think this would have been a realistic option. It could have only gone to guys like Acres / Billings / Gresh etc. and none of these blokes were exactly being underpaid.

The other big question I would pose, is would we have won the Bulldogs final last year if we replaced Hannebery with our first emergency? If not, how much value was that win worth, should we fail to win a final this year, we could be going into the period we all think we will really start to hit our straps with a monkey on our back, for mine that win was incredibly valuable and justified the recruitment of both Hannebery and Ryder.

In Summary, I think the following table shows how worthwhile the Hannebery acquisition was:

What we got...	What we could have had...
Daniel Hannebery	$2.4M in Cap Space from 2019-2021
Jack Bytel	(McInerny / Curtis Taylor / Cavarra)
Matthew Parker	(Elijah Taylor / Warner / Coleman)
2020 Finals Win	Monkey on the Back
Potential Domino Effect leading to the recruitment of Hill -> Howard and Ryder	No Howard / No Ryder / No Hill

Thats a good write up.
But Hanners only cost us one of those 2019 spuds.
We traded our 2019 third round pick to North in exchange for the Nick Hind pick.

 

[Armoooo]

Thats a good write up.
But Hanners only cost us one of those 2019 spuds.
We traded our 2019 third round pick to North in exchange for the Nick Hind pick.

The first lot of spuds (McInerny / Curtis Taylor / Cavarra) were the blokes we could have taken with our 2018 Pick 39, the second lot (Elijah Taylor / Warner / Coleman) were the ones we could have taken with our 2019 2nd pick.

So essentially we could have had Hannebery and Bytel, or one player from each of those groups and a lot more salary cap space.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The first lot of spuds (McInerny / Curtis Taylor / Cavarra) were the blokes we could have taken with our 2018 Pick 39, the second lot (Elijah Taylor / Warner / Coleman) were the ones we could have taken with our 2019 2nd pick.

So essentially we could have had Hannebery and Bytel, or one player from each of those groups and a lot more salary cap space.

OK i get in now.

I would have kind of assumed that if we didn't get Hannebery we'd have taken Bytel with 39 just like we did with 36, ( some risk someone else might have got him ) , and had a 2019 pick.

If we ignore Hannebery our net result was.

Out: Pick 39 out 2019 2nd round.
In : Picks 36 and 46

To me the difference between 39 and 36 is not worth worrying about , so we essentially got Hannebery for our future 2nd ,and got a useless pick back. ( we delisted Parker ). So pretty much the same price as Freeman, ( though we don't know if the 2019 draft will be any good yet ), with a better result.

 

[gringo2011]

The first lot of spuds (McInerny / Curtis Taylor / Cavarra) were the blokes we could have taken with our 2018 Pick 39, the second lot (Elijah Taylor / Warner / Coleman) were the ones we could have taken with our 2019 2nd pick.

So essentially we could have had Hannebery and Bytel, or one player from each of those groups and a lot more salary cap space.

I rate Curtis Taylor. Taylor is Warnies nephew and won a rising star nomination. Looks a handy player.

 

[Mowman]

For the people who think that Hannebery hasn't been worth it, I would encourage you to revisit what we have actually paid for him.

When assessing a trade that involves draft picks, I think it's more important that we consider what players were available for selection between the traded pick, and the teams next pick as this is what was essentially lost, not what the other team drafted as for all we know, the two teams could have had entirely different rankings of the players taken during that window.

We traded Pick 39 and our 2019 2nd Round Pick for Hannebery and Pick 28

We then traded Pick 28 for Pick 36 and Pick 46

Pick 39 is a bit confusing because it was traded to us from West Coast and then was absorbed into Sydney using it to bid on Blakey from their academy. So if we had have kept it, it would have essentially been taken after what was the last pick of round 2 (43 - Jack Ross) and the first pick of round 3 (44 - Justin McInerny). Given we drafted Parker 3 picks later, the only players we could have possibly missed out on are McInerny, Curtis Taylor or Ben Cavarra.

Pick 36 moved out to Pick 41, which we used on Jack Bytel. Pick 46 moved to Pick 47, which we used on Matthew Parker.

Our 2019 2nd Round Pick ultimately stretched out to Pick 36, which Sydney used on Elijah Taylor (Yikes), our next pick was Ryan Byrnes at pick 52. So essentially we lost access to a group of players including Elijah Taylor, Keidean Coleman, Chad Warner and a bunch of other guys who haven't done anything of not.

So from a draft capital perspective, we secured the following:

Daniel Hannebery, Jack Bytel and Matthew Parker

We gave up the possibility to secure two of the following:

(McInerny / Curtis Taylor / Cavarra**) and (Elijah Taylor / Keidan Coleman / Chad Warner)

**There is a chance that Bytel could have also been in this group, however we would have allowed Melbourne, Sydney, North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs a chance to snag him.

From a salary perspective, we take a far bigger hit. It was reported that the salary was around $800k P/A. There were rumours that Sydney would pay some of it, however I don't believe that ever came to fruition. This is where we need to combine what was reported with some healthy speculation. Hannebery was due to have his contract expire in 2021, however we gave him five years (with the fifth having a games trigger which will apparently not be met.).

I would not be surprised, if the total value of the contract was around $3.5M, looking something like this:

2019: $1M
2020: $800k
2021: $600k
2022: $500k
2023: $500k (with trigger)

This would have given him his contracted $800k P/A over the following 3 years, plus give him a further year of financial security, with a trigger for another year as a 33 year old if his body held up.

So the question needs to be asked whether this salary, particularly over 2019-2021 could have been used to entice better talent to the club? I would suggest it would be very unlikely. It would have seemed even more so in 2018, when the idea of luring guys like Crouch and Hill would have been unthinkable. Could we have used it to front load our kids? sure, but would we have just been paying kids more than they deserved, would have have helped us long term? Given that guys like Clark / Coffield / King / Paton / Marshall were all on their first contracts, I don't think this would have been a realistic option. It could have only gone to guys like Acres / Billings / Gresh etc. and none of these blokes were exactly being underpaid.

The other big question I would pose, is would we have won the Bulldogs final last year if we replaced Hannebery with our first emergency? If not, how much value was that win worth, should we fail to win a final this year, we could be going into the period we all think we will really start to hit our straps with a monkey on our back, for mine that win was incredibly valuable and justified the recruitment of both Hannebery and Ryder.

In Summary, I think the following table shows how worthwhile the Hannebery acquisition was:

What we got...	What we could have had...
Daniel Hannebery	$2.4M in Cap Space from 2019-2021
Jack Bytel	(McInerny / Curtis Taylor / Cavarra)
Matthew Parker	(Elijah Taylor / Warner / Coleman)
2020 Finals Win	Monkey on the Back
Potential Domino Effect leading to the recruitment of Hill -> Howard and Ryder	No Howard / No Ryder / No Hill

Really stretching it saying no Ryder Howard or Hill
I say all 3 come plus Crouch Jones weather Hannas is there or not

Was happy when we got him and still think the club did the right thing getting him but he is a bust

just don’t think we need to make stuff up
All those players still come