Autopsy AFL 2023 Round 5 Gather Round - Pies v Saints Sun April 16th 4:50pm AEST (AO)

[Zevon]

5th v 1st

AFL 2023 PREMIERSHIP SEASON ROUND 5

COLLINGWOOD V ST KILDA
SUNDAY APRIL 16TH 4:50PM AEST (ADELAIDE OVAL)

Live scores on BigFooty during the match.

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Teams to be announced
Watch this thread to be alerted when teams drop.

Final Teams released (Melb Time):
Thursday Match - Wednesday 6:20pm
Friday Match - Thursday 6:20pm
Saturday Match - Thursday 6:20pm
Sunday Match - Friday 5:00pm
Monday Match - Saturday 5:00pm
(NB: Sunday and Monday match Extended Squads are released Thursday 6:20)

Links to the Club Board tipping comps



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[juss]

Have to tip Collingwood, the neutral ground like most games this weekend adds a bit of unpredictability in the result. Despite the ladder positions I feel Collingwood are still the stronger side. If the Saints win this one I'll really sit up and take notice of them, but I think the Pies will be too strong.

 

[projectv]

Can't wait for this one.

Match of the round? Both teams are playing football that is amazing to watch.

Will be interesting to see how our gameplan stacks up against one of the best teams in the comp. We will have an edge in the ruck but they have us covered just about everywhere else.

I hope we get up but wouldn't be surprised at all if Collingwood pinches it.

 

[tim_saints]

Can’t wait for this one, should be a cracker with the way both teams play

Membrey back in would be a huge boost for us, not sure who goes in and out and who would be sub, good problem to have!

 

[projectv]

Can’t wait for this one, should be a cracker with the way both teams play

Membrey back in would be a huge boost for us, not sure who goes in and out and who would be sub, good problem to have!

I don't think Membrey is that close? AFL website says he's still 2-3 weeks out.

If he were to come in, it'd probably be for one of Caminiti or Philippou.

Which would be a bit sad, to be honest. But they're probably due a rest/rotation soon.

 

[JackFlash]

Pies by 47pts

 

[g_TRAIN]

I don't think Membrey is that close? AFL website says he's still 2-3 weeks out.

If he were to come in, it'd probably be for one of Caminiti or Philippou.

Which would be a bit sad, to be honest. But they're probably due a rest/rotation soon.

It would be for Cordy

Don't need a second ruck against pies and Mitch Owens is just as good anyway

 

[Monco Matt]

No rucks is not ideal and it will not help our chances against any team. We will not be at out best until we get one or both of Cameron and Cox back. In the meantime we have to make do with makeshift ruck options. This strategy did not work against Brisbane and will not work against a genuine Top 4 or 6 team.

However, although the Saints are currently #1 on the ladder and have done nothing wrong going undefeated so far are probably not there yet having not beaten a top side yet (Dogs win was their best, not sure how good Freo, Dons or Suns are). If they beat us they certainly will frank their credentials. I think we will struggle in the air as always but at ground level the Saints midfield group is not as powerful as Brisbane's especially at The Gabba so I expect our midfield with Pendles, Sidey, DeGoey, Crisp, Mitchell, Adams, Josh Daicos

7

Josh Daicos

Age

25

Ht

178cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.3

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.3

3star

D

16.2

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.5

4star

CL

1.5

4star

D

13.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.2

4star

& Nick Daicos to provide enough class and finishing ability to hurt the Saints.

I think the Saints will be very plucky and will have their moments but I would be disappointed in my team if we didn't get over the line by 20+ points.

 

[#23 Hill]

Pies will be without Cox, Cameron, Howe & Lipinski.

Who will the Saints be missing from their best 22?

 

[g_TRAIN]

Who plays on Owens and do they have the body strength to match him 1v1?

 

[g_TRAIN]

Pies will be without Cox, Cameron, Howe & Lipinski.

Who will the Saints be missing from their best 22?

At least King, Steele, and McKenzie maybe Membery if he doesn't pass a fitness test

Then there is Billings, Jones, Hayes, and a few others who would be thereabouts but not 100% certain best 22.

Kings, Steele, and Membery are the main guys we've been missing impact wise and we're half a chance to get one of them back.

 

[#23 Hill]

At least King, Steele, and McKenzie maybe Membery if he doesn't pass a fitness test

Then there is Billings, Jones, Hayes, and a few others who would be thereabouts but not 100% best 22.

Kings, Steele, and Membery are the main guys we've been missing impact wise and we're half a chance to get one of them back.

Tough one to tip. Saints have an obvious advantage in the ruck but King and Membrey are big outs from your forward line. Can't even rely on a home ground advantage to tilt the balance in someone's favour

 

[triggering bro]

Tough one to tip. Saints have an obvious advantage in the ruck but King and Membrey are big outs from your forward line. Can't even rely on a home ground advantage to tilt the balance in someone's favour

Looks like Membrey is a strong chance to play.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

A big x-factor in this game is just how will AO hold after all the games?

Both sides will be planning for anything right now

 

[aussierulesrules]

Membrey would be a big upgrade on Cordy. Lose his rucking though, which would presumably mean Owens or Caminiti would do some.

 

[Mat Mann]

No rucks is not ideal and it will not help our chances against any team. We will not be at out best until we get one or both of Cameron and Cox back. In the meantime we have to make do with makeshift ruck options. This strategy did not work against Brisbane and will not work against a genuine Top 4 or 6 team.

However, although the Saints are currently #1 on the ladder and have done nothing wrong going undefeated so far are probably not there yet having not beaten a top side yet (Dogs win was their best, not sure how good Freo, Dons or Suns are). If they beat us they certainly will frank their credentials. I think we will struggle in the air as always but at ground level the Saints midfield group is not as powerful as Brisbane's especially at The Gabba so I expect our midfield with Pendles, Sidey, DeGoey, Crisp, Mitchell, Adams, Josh Daicos & Nick Daicos to provide enough class and finishing ability to hurt the Saints.

I think the Saints will be very plucky and will have their moments but I would be disappointed in my team if we didn't get over the line by 20+ points.

so what top team have the Pies beat?

its codswallop

Geelong has been s**t, Port were s**t, tigers barely breathing and got smashed in Brisbane

but Saints beat Freo/s**t Dogs( who beat brisbane the week after)/s**t Ess(despite being 4th)/s**t and smashed Suns(who smashed Geelong)/s**t all 4 sides unanimously backed to be better than us.

or

maybe the Saints played good footy and made those teams look bad

nah!!! easier to admit the earlier option

fwiw

I think it'll be close
I have our backs slightly ahead, esp if you push McStay into the ruck your smalls may be a hand full tho
and similarly our smalls, Maynard on Owens seems likely, will you leave Moore at FB on Cordy or let him try and chase Caminiti? your Brisbane defensive lineup is too tall regardless, esp if it's wet as expected

Our mids probably slightly better clearance wise but your mids do use the ball well

 

[Monco Matt]

so what top team have the Pies beat?

its codswallop

Geelong has been s**t, Port were s**t, tigers barely breathing and got smashed in Brisbane

but Saints beat Freo/s**t Dogs( who beat brisbane the week after)/s**t Ess(despite being 4th)/s**t and smashed Suns(who smashed Geelong)/s**t all 4 sides unanimously backed to be better than us.

or

maybe the Saints played good footy and made those teams look bad

nah!!! easier to admit the earlier option

fwiw

I think it'll be close
I have our backs slightly ahead, esp if you push McStay into the ruck your smalls may be a hand full tho
and similarly our smalls, Maynard on Owens seems likely, will you leave Moore at FB on Cordy or let him try and chase Caminiti? your Brisbane defensive lineup is too tall regardless, esp if it's wet as expected

Our mids probably slightly better clearance wise but your mids do use the ball well

Relax Mat, let's look at this calmly and with common sense.

Let's just say that Collingwood has beaten absolutely nobody so far this season. Never mind that Geelong & Richmond have won 4 of the last 6 premierships with plenty of PF's in between, but let's park that one. St.Kilda have beaten Essendon, Freo and Gold Coast, three teams that combined have made the finals not too many more times in the last 6 years than St.Kilda's total number of premierships. Let's not harp on that one either. But, I think the Pies have at least earned some credits in the bank compared to St.Kilda over the past 6 years due to making several PF & GF finals appearances to at least be given the benefit of the doubt when it comes to staking a claim as a top side contending for a flag.

Now, none of this may have anything to do with what will happen this weekend. This is yet to be seen, but, until we see it we can only reveiw the past to form a prediction for the future. Which is all I was trying to do. Good luck to the Saints, if they are good enough they will show it this week and for the rest of the season. They will finish top 4 and prove their worth. Until they do this then I have to rate the Pies as more highly credentialed, regardless of the first 4 rounds of 2023.

I think this is a fair enough position to take and uses common sense to take it.

 

[Veer Right]

Who plays on Owens and do they have the body strength to match him 1v1?

Murphy or Moore for sure. Both have good body strength yet i will back Owens to beat either of them. Good test regardless.

 

[tim_saints]

However, although the Saints are currently #1 on the ladder and have done nothing wrong going undefeated so far are probably not there yet having not beaten a top side yet (Dogs win was their best, not sure how good Freo, Dons or Suns are). If they beat us they certainly will frank their credentials.

Right so, if we do happen to beat you what will it be next week? “Ahh they beat the pies without a ruckman and 3 other players, the real test will be carlton this week”

People just flat out ignore all the stats and the way we are playing that completely debunks the argument that we are merely winning due to who we’ve played.

If we wanna play that game the Pies have beaten Geelong who outside of 1 half against hawthorn (the worst team in the comp) look cooked, Richmond who just lost to the bulldogs who we waxed by 50 points, Port probably the best win you’ve had so far they look solid, far from sold on them and lost to Brisbane.

 

[Xtreme]

St Kilda by 50 points

No ruck will be Collingwood's undoing, they should not have traded Grundy!!!

 

[Mat Mann]

Relax Mat, let's look at this calmly and with common sense.

Let's just say that Collingwood has beaten absolutely nobody so far this season. Never mind that Geelong & Richmond have won 4 of the last 6 premierships with plenty of PF's in between, but let's park that one. St.Kilda have beaten Essendon, Freo and Gold Coast, three teams that combined have made the finals not too many more times in the last 6 years than St.Kilda's total number of premierships. Let's not harp on that one either. But, I think the Pies have at least earned some credits in the bank compared to St.Kilda over the past 6 years due to making several PF & GF finals appearances to at least be given the benefit of the doubt when it comes to staking a claim as a top side contending for a flag.

Now, none of this may have anything to do with what will happen this weekend. This is yet to be seen, but, until we see it we can only reveiw the past to form a prediction for the future. Which is all I was trying to do. Good luck to the Saints, if they are good enough they will show it this week and for the rest of the season. They will finish top 4 and prove their worth. Until they do this then I have to rate the Pies as more highly credentialed, regardless of the first 4 rounds of 2023.

I think this is a fair enough position to take and uses common sense to take it.

common sense hey
past form to a prediction for the future

Pies 2021 finished 17th with 6 wins
pies 2022 finished 4th with 16 wins

so ONLY the pies can show rapid improvement over a 1 year period but no other team could ever possibly hope to have the same experience?
again perception of a team's performance DOES not indicate a team's actual performance

past premierships have little relevance to the current season form
the 2 teams you quoted have won a total of 2 games for the year

let's take the Bulldogs, who lost to StKilda by 50 points the week before they beat Brisbane by 14 the week before Brisbane beat the Pies by 33, pretty handy how that lines up, yet apparently no correlation can be drawn from that

ignore the current form and only use the past form as a guide, got it, you must really do well in tipping comps
your welcome to credit the pies their wins and ignore the opponent's forms, yet count the poor form of the sides StKilda has beaten against them reeks of sanctimony.

also the dig at the Saints and 1 cup, truly ******* pathetic

 

[PrinceCharles]

common sense hey
past form to a prediction for the future

Pies 2021 finished 17th with 6 wins
pies 2022 finished 4th with 16 wins

so ONLY the pies can show rapid improvement over a 1 year period but no other team could ever possibly hope to have the same experience?
again perception of a team's performance DOES not indicate a team's actual performance

past premierships have little relevance to the current season form
the 2 teams you quoted have won a total of 2 games for the year

let's take the Bulldogs, who lost to StKilda by 50 points the week before they beat Brisbane by 14 the week before Brisbane beat the Pies by 33, pretty handy how that lines up, yet apparently no correlation can be drawn from that

ignore the current form and only use the past form as a guide, got it, you must really do well in tipping comps
your welcome to credit the pies their wins and ignore the opponent's forms, yet count the poor form of the sides StKilda has beaten against them reeks of sanctimony.

also the dig at the Saints and 1 cup, truly ******* pathetic

You come across a bit unhinged, are you aware of this?

 

[Present Not Past]

also the dig at the Saints and 1 cup, truly ******* pathetic

How many cups have Collingwood won in 33 years?
One.

 

[Present Not Past]

You come across a bit unhinged, are you aware of this?

He’s responding to a Collingwood supporter.
It’s like trying to rationalise with a 3 year old.

 

[mr bagcroft]

Will be hard fought for the first quarter or two, but Saints I feel will come out on top by 175 points.