Opinion Bottom 4 and top 4 teams in 3 years

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timtamWB said:
St. Kilda 3 years ago. Anyone predict that in 3 years they would be 17th? Sydney 2009, anyone predict that they would be premiers? Melbourne 3 years ago. Anyone think that they would STILL be bottom 4? It's hard to predict who's going to be where on the ladder a year before, to predict three years away is almost impossible.
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True, I guess we will see then mate
 
I think Ross Lyon is in a very precarious position, he has a side ready to contend for a premiership but at the same time, he needs to be getting games into youngsters as they have many players who are heading into that 26-28 age bracket while a few are into their late 20's.
Can't see him blooding too many youngsters in 2014 because they need to ensure top 4 is the main priority
 
Bobby_ said:
I think Ross Lyon is in a very precarious position, he has a side ready to contend for a premiership but at the same time, he needs to be getting games into youngsters as they have many players who are heading into that 26-28 age bracket while a few are into their late 20's.
Can't see him blooding too many youngsters in 2014 because they need to ensure top 4 is the main priority
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Can see a St. Kilda like drop coming in a few years for them.
 

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Yeah, Lyon's definitely got form on that front.
Wouldn't mind seeing Fremantle win a premiership, the atmosphere in Melbourne when they came to town was fantastic all week, but not with Lyon at the helm. I could only tolerate seeing Lyon succeed if he was wearing a red, white and blue polo, and that's never going to happen.
 
Bailey01 said:
Explain? if you can
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As above, its a guessing game, and one team has to be 17th.

Adelaide's lack of quality draft picks was one factor - keeping in mind that this was written well before the draft / trade period, and I assumed Adelaide would not trade its way into that Matt Crouch selection, nor did I expect them to nab Betts or Podsiadly (not that I expect either of them to make a big difference in 2016, but still). Note that Essendon are pretty low for the same reason - hurt by a lack of draft picks.

Dangerfield, Sloane and Crouch are all really good / going to be really good players, but by 2016 I expect Thompson, Van Berlo, Vince, etc to be gone (obviously I now know one is) which will slightly balance that out. The rest of the midfield didn't seem particularly strong to me, especially compared to the teams that I had just above them (I kind of made an assumption the Saints would've picked up a few more good kids, ditto with Brisbane, I'm not so sure of this now, I'd probably have both teams a bit lower, I think their rebuild period is going to go longer). Jacobs I'm not particularly sure of, and he doesn't seem to have any backup ruckman waiting in the wings, so I'm not sure if there's enough grunt in the midfield.

At the ends of the ground, Tex Walker and Talia will still be around and doing quite well - though I'm not sure a post knee reco Walker will be quite as potent as he was before - , but I'm not sure the have much support. Rutten will be gone from the backline, and again, I'm not sure who is ready to come up. In the forward line, Lynch and Johnson are both serviceable, but not sure they will be much more than that.

As I said, its throwing s**t at a wall, essentially, but whatever. Even today if I redid it there would probably be a few things to shuffle around.
 
jdeezy said:
As above, its a guessing game, and one team has to be 17th.

Adelaide's lack of quality draft picks was one factor - keeping in mind that this was written well before the draft / trade period, and I assumed Adelaide would not trade its way into that Matt Crouch selection, nor did I expect them to nab Betts or Podsiadly (not that I expect either of them to make a big difference in 2016, but still). Note that Essendon are pretty low for the same reason - hurt by a lack of draft picks.

Dangerfield, Sloane and Crouch are all really good / going to be really good players, but by 2016 I expect Thompson, Van Berlo, Vince, etc to be gone (obviously I now know one is) which will slightly balance that out. The rest of the midfield didn't seem particularly strong to me, especially compared to the teams that I had just above them (I kind of made an assumption the Saints would've picked up a few more good kids, ditto with Brisbane, I'm not so sure of this now, I'd probably have both teams a bit lower, I think their rebuild period is going to go longer). Jacobs I'm not particularly sure of, and he doesn't seem to have any backup ruckman waiting in the wings, so I'm not sure if there's enough grunt in the midfield.

At the ends of the ground, Tex Walker and Talia will still be around and doing quite well - though I'm not sure a post knee reco Walker will be quite as potent as he was before - , but I'm not sure the have much support. Rutten will be gone from the backline, and again, I'm not sure who is ready to come up. In the forward line, Lynch and Johnson are both serviceable, but not sure they will be much more than that.

As I said, its throwing s**t at a wall, essentially, but whatever. Even today if I redid it there would probably be a few things to shuffle around.
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Drafts don't do much to determine "next season"
StKilda had lack of quality drafts from 2008-2010, but we didn't fall of the cliff until 2013.
 
SaintsSeptember said:
Drafts don't do much to determine "next season"
StKilda had lack of quality drafts from 2008-2010, but we didn't fall of the cliff until 2013.
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Yep. Which is why I predicted the loss of quality 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 draft picks would have a negative effect on the Adelaide / Essendon (respectively) 2016 seasons. I wasn't expecting anything to change too drastically next season because of it.
 
jdeezy said:
Yep. Which is why I predicted the loss of quality 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 draft picks would have a negative effect on the Adelaide / Essendon (respectively) 2016 seasons. I wasn't expecting anything to change too drastically next season because of it.
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You don't need high draft picks to build a good list.
 
Anyone who says the Pies will be bottom 4 are on some pretty good drugs. 2016 should be the year that the club aims for a flag again because by this stage we'll have the majority of our side still in or entering their peak and we should no real weak positions across the field. Between now and then I expect just one best 22 player to have retired, that being Luke Ball. Although they will play game time in 2014 I don't believe Maxy or Q-Stick are best 22.

Keeffe and Brown will flourish together as KPD's. Both have had there injury troubles in the past 2-3 years and have only played in defence together during the last 7-8 games of last season. Especially watch for Keeffe to become close to All-Australian in the next few years as long as he continues to play defence (WTF were they thinking playing him ruck-fwd in the EF??). Tooves will be the eldest player in defence at 29 and will be alongside any of Scharenberg, Williams and one of Ramsay, Oxley, Seedsman or Langdon.

We will have a top 3 ruck in the comp, something we haven't had since I can remember. Then alongside Grundy will be Pendles, Beams, Sidebottom, Adams, Thomas, Young, Lumumba, Freeman and Broomhead, not that u can fit all of those blokes in.

Trav and Reidy will still be able to kick 50+ each in 2016. Hopefully White can do something as a FWD/RUC but I'm not really banking on it. Then there is small/medium fwds in Elliott, Fasolo and Kennedy, by 2016 Swanny will be causing havoc as an almost permanent forward. The club also has high hopes for Patty Karnezis as well as Jonothan Marsh who's a freak athlete.

If we don't make at least top 4 then either something has gone terribly wrong e.g Heaps of injuries or it's that Bucks is coaching like s**t and should therefore be sacked.

I'm happy to have a good argument with people who have queries about what I say but boy am I keen to see the young players develop in the next few years :)
 
In terms of top 4 and bottom 4 I'd have (in no particular order)

Top 4
Pies
Dockers
GC
Dogs

Bottom 4
Blues
Saints
Melbourne
Crows
 

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3 years is an eternity away in footy so this is purely (educated) guesswork. In 2017:


Top 4

Western Bulldogs- Midfield looks promising and McCartney is a very good coach. Premiership drought has to end soon.

Collingwood- Have some talented youth and did very well in last year's draft. May not see a flag in the next several years due to losing a raft of experienced players, but should be on the rise again by the time that happens anyway.

Port Adelaide- Similar to the Dogs in that they're well coached and have a promising young midfield. Going places fast in the next few years.

Gold Coast- Won't be the powerhouse many are predicting but have still assembled a pretty strong side for the future. AFL will ensure they don't fail in the same way the Bears did.


Bottom 4

Hawthorn- Controversial, but history shows a drop of this magnitude typically happens with one flag contender in any given year (St Kilda, West Coast, and the Bulldogs are recent examples). Some stars are nearing the end and I feel as though they don't have the 18-20 y.o. talent to support them going forward that other recent contenders in Collingwood, Sydney, and to a lesser extent Geelong have. Won't be down there for long if such a fall occurs.

Brisbane- Made a big mistake by removing the coach who was taking them in the right direction (Voss). Losing the 'go-home 5' and some aging players could hurt them in the next 2-3 years.

St Kilda- Going to take another few years before they begin rising the ladder again and they'll be in for some pain in the meantime. May be signs of life by 2017 due to recent draftees entering their 2nd/3rd year.

Carlton- Average list that hasn't shown many signs of improvement recently, some key players also aging. The competition doesn't stand still. Unless Mick swings the axe soon they could be quickly headed south.
 
Hans_Moleman said:
Carlton- Average list that hasn't shown many signs of improvement recently, some key players also aging. The competition doesn't stand still. Unless Mick swings the axe soon they could be quickly headed south.
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Mick swung the axe last year to to turn over the list.

Impossible to predict what will happen. First few pages of this thread had Carlton top four and Port as a bottom four side this year. Essendon were tipped as a team on the up, yet Carlton belted them in the 2011 finals. Also dished out a 96 belting to Essendon the round before the same team lost to the Suns. These results would have had people questioning the Bombers.

Things can turn around quickly. Carlton will turn over the list and add to the talent we have recruited in the last two seasons. Players and teams don't lose their talent overnight, but they can go through lean spells. Results show how much Kreuzer adds to Carlton as a follower and hardnut.
 
Unique Name said:
No Order

Top:
Freo
Geelong
GWS
Hawks

Bottom:
Brisbane
GC
Melbourne
St Kilda
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GC bottom 4? WTF?

Don't really see all of Geelong, Hawthorn and Freo remaining in the Top 4 either.
 
Chaisa said:
GC bottom 4? WTF?

Don't really see all of Geelong, Hawthorn and Freo remaining in the Top 4 either.
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Yeah absolutely no chance Freo will be up there. So many key structural players in Pavlich, Sandilands, McPharlin, and maybe even Dawson and Johnson will be retired. If Fyfe or Mundy leaves in addition to those guys they could crash hard.
 
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