Player Watch Dayne Beams (Retired 2020)

[devize]

But what if we conjure up a deal that means we lose this years first rounder, but regain enough points to get Quaynor and Kelly (who are both projected top 25 players in Cal Twomeys form guide).

So it would only be the loss of next years first rounder.

This guy gets it. People are failing to realise that even if we give away our first two picks we still essentially get a first round pick if we get enough points to pick up Quaynor (and Kelly). As long as we get some late picks back to regain enough points for the above then we're essentially only paying one likely to be late first rounder next year. Pick 18 is a nothing pick for us.

The deal will go through, and it'll be a good deal for both clubs. I don't see it not happening. It would have been great if they took 18 and a future second but 18 and a future first with some late pick swaps will be a good deal for both.

 

[devize]

The difference between a 26 and 29 are neglable as a professional athlete.

Yep, look at Shaun Higgins. Had a horrible run with injuries and put together a career best season this year. He's almost 31 now.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

The difference between a 26 and 29 are neglable as a professional athlete.

It’s when you’re 31/32 you notice it.
Pendles I expect will slow down next year. Beams becomes that temp replacement.

Ugh.



So if we traded for a 26 year old we would get 5 years before he “noticed it”.

Get a 29 year old and it’s two years before he “noticed it”.

5 years of a top player is worth more than 2 years.

I can’t believe I’m having to post this.

 

[TKiL]

Ugh. ......
.... So if we traded for a 26 year old we would get 5 years before he “noticed it”. Get a 29 year old and it’s two years before he “noticed it”.
5 years of a top player is worth more than 2 years. I can’t believe I’m having to post this.

I know how you feel - it's lonely here sometimes - posting pearls of wisdom...

 

[MarkT2]

Was a jet. Now he’s just an accumulator of the plenty of those around and at 29 he’s going to be on the decline very soon. Maybe get a year or two from him if he doesn’t get injured. A pick 18 could get so much more.

2-3 years probably. If our time is now then 2-3 years is worth 7. We were a midfielder OR a key back from a flag. I'd love to snag one of each. Whether we land Beams or not it doesn't look like we'll land a quality key back. We are forced into hoping Moore and/or Reid can play enough games and be fit in September. At least Beams gives us a better midfield. Our mids were beaten 3 from 3 against the premiers and 2 from 3 against last years premiers with the 3rd being when their best player (mid) was on one leg. The GF was a 1 goal game in the end but they could (should?) have kicked a couple more through the last quarter. We were hanging on by our fingernails.

Beams improves our chances of winning a flag.

May would as well but that looks remote so we should take the player we can get. I agree that 2 firsts is on the high side without something meaningful coming back and I am always concerned that we fold in trade poker but if we win a flag with Beams playing his part I wont care what we paid. I'm sick of not being quite good enough. We have to make our list good enough.

 

[DaVe86]

I believe we're of the thought we already have enough points, hence being happy to trade out the first round pick.

If you take out our pick 18, by my calculations we will fall a long way short points wise.

Getting some 2nd/3rd round picks back with Beams would be a great win...even if it costs us next years 1st.

If we fall into deficit this year, next years first could slip anyway

 

[TKiL]

May must be off the cards if we are offering pick 18 for beams. With the priority picks, and points system it be that we take beams because we were going to have to use pick 18 on Quaynor anyway

We can use pick 18 for Quaynor - rookie him when he's not looking, trade next year's round 1 for May, use the FS pick to draft Kelly, swap next year's points for this year's 3rd round - use the leftover points to go into deficit and get Wingard while Clarkson is making peace with Jeff K.

While this is happening we can trade live on draft night ensuring we get Beams, May, Wingard and upgrade next year's 2nd round to this year's 1st and do a salary dump on the Dees.

 

[MarkT2]

5 years of a top player is worth more than 2 years.

I can’t believe I’m having to post this.

2 years when you are contending is worth more than 5 years when your not. Pendlebury won't be around forever and Beams is from the same draft as Sidebottom. If Stevenson can develop which seems probable, De Goey can improve his tank and Moore & Elliot can get fit which seems less probable then we are seriously fighting to win flags in the next 2-4 years. We carried a few into the GF that need to make way if we are going to win 1 or heaven forbid 2.

I am more than happy to pay a small premium for talent that will serve us well for 3 years or so. It worked with Ball and Jolly. Whatever we paid for them was the biggest recruiting bargain in my life watching Collingwood because it got us our second flag in more than half a century.

 

[left at home]

I know how you feel - it's lonely here sometimes - posting pearls of wisdom...

Really, can you quote them.

 

[TKiL]

Really, can you quote them.

I'm a bit busy just now ....

 

[The Royal Sampler]

2 years when you are contending is worth more than 5 years when your not.

No kidding. Tell me more.

 

[PIEWITHSAUCE]

If you take out our pick 18, by my calculations we will fall a long way short points wise.

Getting some 2nd/3rd round picks back with Beams would be a great win...even if it costs us next years 1st.

If we fall into deficit this year, next years first could slip anyway

Or 2nd if Quaynor bid comes 2nd round

 

[Frankmagpie]

We can use pick 18 for Quaynor - rookie him when he's not looking, trade next year's round 1 for May, use the FS pick to draft Kelly, swap next year's points for this year's 3rd round - use the leftover points to go into deficit and get Wingard while Clarkson is making peace with Jeff K.

While this is happening we can trade live on draft night ensuring we get Beams, May, Wingard and upgrade next year's 2nd round to this year's 1st and do a salary dump on the Dees.

What did i just read??

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

No kidding. Tell me more.

He already did. You partially quoted.

 

[TKiL]

What did i just read??

Makes as much sense as some of the other BS posted here

 

[The Royal Sampler]

He already did. You partially quoted.

Sarcasm detector malfunctioning today, Timmy?

 

[Pie eyed]

Really, can you quote them.

Outside of a Dog, a book is mans best friend.
Inside a dog it's too dark to read.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Sarcasm detector malfunctioning today, Timmy?

Its in the shop for its 250,000 km service. The courtesy sarcasm detector isnt the same.

 

[Pie eyed]

Not everything that counts can be counted and not everything that can be counted counts.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Its in the shop for its 250,000 km service. The courtesy sarcasm detector isnt the same.

250,000km ain’t bad though. My wife’s sarcasm detector blew up after about 50m.

 

[Pie eyed]

This guy gets it. People are failing to realise that even if we give away our first two picks we still essentially get a first round pick if we get enough points to pick up Quaynor (and Kelly). As long as we get some late picks back to regain enough points for the above then we're essentially only paying one likely to be late first rounder next year. Pick 18 is a nothing pick for us.

The deal will go through, and it'll be a good deal for both clubs. I don't see it not happening. It would have been great if they took 18 and a future second but 18 and a future first with some late pick swaps will be a good deal for both.

Dave is no slouch.
His greatest asset is being able to explain what he thinks.

 

[Pie eyed]

Its in the shop for its 250,000 km service. The courtesy sarcasm detector isnt the same.

 

[Boris the Contradiction]

I think some assume we would have to use pick 18 on Quaynor and/or Kelly and therefore, that we would not worsen our draft position by trading out pick 18, provided we trade in the equivalent number of points and get those two players with those points. This is not necessarily the case, especially in a very strong draft year.

If nobody bids on either player before pick 18, we can use pick 18 on someone else and this is a very real possibility. In fact, we would be stupid to use pick 18 on either player knowing we'd have a play on them anyway.

Most draft experts have Quaynor somewhere in the teens to 20s, with Kelly looking more like a 20s to 40s pick. They may very well still be on the draft board after pick 18 and this is why comparing trade options based on net points gain is flawed.

Fewer early picks is always better to have than several later picks worth the same points. This is because in the worst case scenario (another team bids on your player early), their value is equal, but in the best case scenario (no team bids), you have the ability to obtain an early drafted player in addition to the academy/FS player. It's the same fallback position without the upside.

Note that I want Beams back at the Pies and would be happy to trade out pick 18 to get him. I just think that some people misunderstand the system.

 

[mike123]

I fitted both Elliott and Thomas in to my best 22 yesterday

I’ve fitted them both in all of my 100 best 22s

 

[mike123]

I can’t help but think we are putting a lot on the line, if we can’t win a flag with Pendles and Beam next year, we probably never will.

You have to put it all on the line for ultimate success.