Do you usually pick the GF winner?

[BigPond101]

I was just thinking if someone bet $100k on the GF winner each year and no other game would it be easy to make a big profit?

2000 to 2003 I have right

2004 wrong

2005-06 I'd back Eagles both time so splitting no loss

2007 yes

2008 no

2009 to 2015 only hawks losing to Sydney I got wrong

2016 wrong sydney bias

2017 yes

2018 no

2019 - 2023 yes

 

[jwint43]

I am 29 so my experiences are limited of having a true opinion on the games

2004 - No
2005 - No
2006- Yes
2007- Yes
2008 - No
2009 - No (kills me we lost this one)
2010 - Yes
2011 - No
2012 - No
2013 - No (thought Lyon had peaked with this team)
2014 - No (Sydney looked unstoppable, biggest lowkey GF choke job)
2015 - Yes
2016 - No
2017 - No
2018 - No
2019 - Yes
2020 - Yes
2021 - No
2022 - Yes
2023 - Yes

7/20, god damn

 

[Xtreme]

EVERY SINGLE TIME
(I wish lol)

92 - YES
94 - YES
96 - NO
97 - YES
98 - YES
00 - 03 YES
04 - NO
05-06 - Neutral and didn't care
07 - NO
08 - NO (lol didn't think Hawthorn were a chance until half time)

09 - NO
10 - NO
11 - YES (Felt a Geelong win would tell a better story with the Mick/Eddie/Nathan divorce)

12 - NO
13 - 15 YES
16 - 17 NO
18 - Neutral and kept switching alliances mid match

19 - NO
20 - YES
21 - YES
22 - HELL NO lol
23 - Neutral but veered toward wanting the Lions... so NO lol.

15ish out of 31

 

[PenrithGWS]

I was just thinking if someone bet $100k on the GF winner each year and no other game would it be easy to make a big profit?

2000 to 2003 I have right

2004 wrong

2005-06 I'd back Eagles both time so splitting no loss

2007 yes

2008 no

2009 to 2015 only hawks losing to Sydney I got wrong

2016 wrong sydney bias

2017 yes

2018 no

2019 - 2023 yes

If you put a bet on that size at LADBROKES and it won there is no chance you would ever be seeing that money again.

You would have to choose any other Sports book first.

 

[Rotayjay]

I think I got:

• 2011 right
• 2012 wrong
• 2013 right
• 2014 wrong
• 2015 wrong
• 2016 wrong
• 2017 wrong
• 2018 wrong
• 2019 right
• 2020 right
• 2021 right
• 2022 right
• 2023 right

Even some of those 'tips' are line ball, so in 2016 my head said Swans but my heart said Bulldogs. Had I placed a bet, I would have bet with my head.

Every year I usually get sucked into the narrative that the underdogs are in with a big shot, but it doesn't eventuate that often.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

2000 -
2001 -
2002 -
2003 -
2004 -
2005 -
2006 -
2007 -
2008 -
2009 -
2010 -
2011 -
2012 -
2013 - (Had the Hawks as likely premiers all season through but changed GF week on the back of Freo’s demolition job on Sydney
2014 -
2015 -
2016 -
2017 -
2018 -
2019 -
2020 -
2021 -
2022 -
2023 -

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

50-50 I'd imagine

 

[MisterMarcus]

If it's not involving Geelong, I usually go for the underdog.

So mostly "No".

 

[Tandy]

Na because I'm always going for the underdog. Usually ends up disappointed

 

[Jugada]

I was just thinking if someone bet $100k on the GF winner each year and no other game would it be easy to make a big profit?

No. It would not

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I was just thinking if someone bet $100k on the GF winner each year and no other game would it be easy to make a big profit?

2000 to 2003 I have right

2004 wrong

2005-06 I'd back Eagles both time so splitting no loss

2007 yes

2008 no

2009 to 2015 only hawks losing to Sydney I got wrong

2016 wrong sydney bias

2017 yes

2018 no

2019 - 2023 yes

No - odds are set so you cannot beat them in the long run. Very very few people do.

 

[BigPond101]

No - odds are set so you cannot beat them in the long run. Very very few people do.

Yeah, that applies if you are betting on multiple games every weekend the bookies odds will get you "in the long run"

If you only bet on 1 game per year and you usually get it right, and the odds are inflated because both teams won their prelim to make it to the GF which leads to people overrating the underdog. Best ever example of this is Hawks vs Freo. As far as I remember by the time of the match Freo were almost favourites from people piling money onto them because of their preliminary win. In reality anyone with the tiniest brain could logically work out there was no way in hell Freo were going to beat the hawks in their first ever GF at the MCG

 

[Jugada]

Yeah, that applies if you are betting on multiple games every weekend the bookies odds will get you "in the long run"

If you only bet on 1 game per year and you usually get it right, and the odds are inflated because both teams won their prelim to make it to the GF which leads to people overrating the underdog. Best ever example of this is Hawks vs Freo. As far as I remember by the time of the match Freo were almost favourites from people piling money onto them because of their preliminary win. In reality anyone with the tiniest brain could logically work out there was no way in hell Freo were going to beat the hawks in their first ever GF at the MCG

It makes no difference if you are betting one game a year. Infact you are far more heavily relying on variance to be on your side even if you had an edge over the market.

Both teams winning there prelim doesn't equal odds are inflated either. They're set to pretty much exactly the same margin.

Cherry picking a single match result after the fact means * all really. The odds were $1.65 vs $2.40 on that day anyway

 

[Mitchell Madness]

As a kid I picked every winner from 1995-2008 at the start of the season.
Of course, as soon as I hit betting age that streak ended...

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Yeah, that applies if you are betting on multiple games every weekend the bookies odds will get you "in the long run"

If you only bet on 1 game per year and you usually get it right, and the odds are inflated because both teams won their prelim to make it to the GF which leads to people overrating the underdog. Best ever example of this is Hawks vs Freo. As far as I remember by the time of the match Freo were almost favourites from people piling money onto them because of their preliminary win. In reality anyone with the tiniest brain could logically work out there was no way in hell Freo were going to beat the hawks in their first ever GF at the MCG

Well, if you literally place one bet for your entire life then yes, I guess you’re right.

And if you genuinely stop when you’re ahead, then sure.

But even betting once a year, unless you are one of the very very very few punters that are at the very cutting edge, the market will eventually get you.

The market gets it right. That’s just how the wisdom of crowds and probability works.

 

[Rusty Brookes]

52% of the time. They don't call me Smooth Jimmy Apollo for nothing.

 

[99cents]

Save your cash for when a Melbourne/ Vic team plays an interstate side- load up when that interstate side hasn't played in one before.
Win 9, lose 2 since 2007

 

[maskmcgee]

Yes it's usually the team I don't want to win, every year since 2013 except 2018. Already bet on them every year, make a fortune.