Strategy Embrace The Journey

[Jeremias]

Bump.

Discussion in another thread reminded me of this, which I haven't updated over the past few years.

The below is purely superficial and hypothetical, but if we're to apply the 76ers winning percentages to our next few years, we get the following:

2016 - 7 wins, 15 losses (.318)
2017 - 6 wins, 16 losses (.273)
2018 - .122 = 2-3 wins
2019 - .341 = 7-8 wins
2020 - .634 = 13-14 wins

Note: In years one and two of our rebuild our winning % was slightly higher, and I expect each season to be similar - so instead of 2-3 this year, we may be looking more at 3-5.

I know there is much doom and gloom surrounding our performances this year, but next year looks right to me. I have consistently said I expect to see significant improvement starting next season, and I have not wavered from that. 7-9 wins is realistic, but it is not unreasonable to suggest we may win more.

2020 I fully expect to make the finals.

Long way to go yet, but this is looking scarily accurate at the moment.

2018
Projected: 2-3 wins (.122)
Actual: 2 wins

2019
Projected: 7-8 wins (.122)
Actual: 7 wins

2020
Projected: 13-14 wins (.634)
Actual: TBD

A shorter season has all but ensured we won't be reaching the 13-14 wins predicted, but if we use that .634 guide across a 17 game season we get...

10-11 wins

Given we have matched the bottom end of each prediction, let's run with 10 wins.

That will see us playing finals as per my original post quoted above.

Let's see if the accuracy continues.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Bump.

Discussion in another thread reminded me of this, which I haven't updated over the past few years.



Long way to go yet, but this is looking scarily accurate at the moment.

2018
Projected: 2-3 wins (.122)
Actual: 2 wins

2019
Projected: 7-8 wins (.122)
Actual: 7 wins

2020
Projected: 13-14 wins (.634)
Actual: TBD

A shorter season has all but ensured we won't be reaching the 13-14 wins predicted, but if we use that .634 guide across a 17 game season we get...

10-11 wins

Given we have matched the bottom end of each prediction, let's run with 10 wins.

That will see us playing finals as per my original post quoted above.

Let's see if the accuracy continues.

Bloody fantastic post.

Even more coincidental, Sam Hinkie who was the 76ers General Manager (our version of SOS) and oversaw the rebuild was replaced by Elton Brand just before the 76ers started climbing...

 

[thylacine60]

Another similarity was the long term injured stars ie Doc & Charlie.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Both have an aussie coach!

 

[chelseacarlton]

All I know is that our entire organisation were a pack of dribblers until Doc and Cripps became co-captains and Teague to the reigns.

 

[Wickzki]

Really wish I'd seen this before that. Brett was my first mentor in the world of professional sport. I can definitely see the correlation and the work you've done. I can also see where both have veered in different directions at times.

I'd like to say that it's easier to build a team for the NBA playoffs than it is to do the same in the AFL. Despite the fact that we don't have an AFL Draft Lottery like the NBA I'd suggest that in any one year a quarter of the NBA (about 7-8 teams) has their sights set on the following year's draft before the season has even began while I think by and large there's about half that in the NBA. As a somewhat logical consequence an AFL season isn't really over halfway through the season unlike the NBA. This is punctuated more with in-season trading where a team can basically sink their season (without consequence) through trades while it's rarer for borderline playoff teams to really try and bolster their playoffs chances. Obviously, the AFL doesn't really have this.