eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Essendon: Had a small loss against Port Adelaide in a promising display. Brent Stanton was impressive for Essendon, gathering the ball 32 times, and defender cum forward Cale Hooker kicked 3 goals in an impressive marking display.
Western Bulldogs:
Head to Head (Last 5)
Essendon 5-0 Western Bulldogs
Sportsbet odds
Essendon $2.40
Western Bulldogs $1.55
Line $1.92 +/-10.5 points.
Possible Sides
Essendon vs Western Bulldogs
B: Baguley - Hooker - Gwilt
F: Hunter - Redpath - Crameri
HB: Goddard - Hurley - Hibberd
HF: Dahlhaus - Stringer - Daniel
C: J Merrett - Hocking - Stanton
C: Macrae - Bontempelli - Dickson
HF: Zaharakis - McKernan - Z Merrett
HB: Murphy - Morris - Wood
F: Edwards - Daniher - Howlett
B: Johannisen - Roughead - M Boyd
R: Giles - Kavanagh - Heppell
R: Campbell - Wallis - Picken
I: Langford - Gleeson - Browne
I: Darley - Biggs - Prudden
S: Laverde
S: Dale
Essendon defence vs Western Bulldogs forward line
This is an area of concern for the Bulldogs, having a goals per inside 50 percentage of 23%, a bit below the league average. Their mark per inside 50 is the worst in the league, only taking a mark 18% of the time when they enter the forward 50, well below the league average. Essendon are good in this area, averaging 23% goals per inside 50 conceded and at 21% for marks per inside 50, both below the league average . When it comes to match-ups, Jack Redpath will likely be the #1 KPF, which is a tough ask for an 8 game player who's only averaging 1 goal/game across his career and will likely come up against All Australian key defender in Cale Hooker. Michael Hurley kept former team mate Stewart Crameri to 1 goal in his 2 games last year and will likely try to replicate that form again, against a guy who's only averaging 1 goal/game this season in his 11 games so far. Jake Stringer was on fire the last time these sides met, but James Gwilt has never been disgraced since removing the white from his jumper and will likely be able to contain the key forward. Mark Baguley is likely to combat Luke Dahlhaus, who has kicked 7 goals the last 3 times he's played Essendon and has a knack of playing well against the boys in red and black.
Midfield battle (including rucks).
An area of the game Essendon have struggled in this season and conversely Western Bulldogs have excelled in. Essendon's clearance differential this season is second last, only ahead of Geelong. Western Bulldogs on the flipside have a top 8 ranking of it. In terms of contested possession differential, Essendon are 16th and Bulldogs are 10th, but still a significant gap between them. Essendon will be welcoming back Heath Hocking this week which should help this area, with his blocking and nudges important for the likes of Dyson Heppell inside, who has had a lack of support there for the most part this season. Hocking will also be able to tag someone like Liam Picken, who has been in red hot form this season, averaging a tad under 24 disposals, including 3 games of 30 disposals or more. Western Bulldogs inside stocks have some strength in there, with Marcus Bontempelli and Mitch Wallis also likely to play roles inside. The latter will probably try to tag Heppell inside, as that's where a lot of Essendon's drive comes from. On the outside, Jackson Macrae and Brent Stanton look to be an interesting head to head battle, with Macrae having some comparisons to a young Stanton in his attributes. The ruck battle will be one to watch, with both sides struggling in that department, Essendon likely to bring Jonathon Giles into help out Shaun McKernan after another dominant display in the VFL and Tom Campbell coming into his 3rd game of the year, likely to be supported by Redpath or Jordan Roughead.
Essendon forwards vs Port defence
Essendon's forward line has struggled again this season for a multitude of reasons. Their goals per inside 50 ratio is well below the league average, a tad under 21%. Their marks per inside 50 ratio is a below the league average at 20%. Bulldogs concede a goal 23% of the time they enter the forward 50, a bit below the league average but are the 2nd worst in terms of marks per inside 50, averaging over 25%, only better than Brisbane. Joe Daniher will be the main danger for the Dogs, with Roughead a possibility to split time between ruck and defence it will be important for him to make those periods count for something against Dale Morris most likely. McKernan and Giles should also take advantage of this period, with their next tallest defender being captain Robert Murphy, who gives away 10 cm to McKernan and 14 cm to Giles. Shaun Edwards will likely be matched up against Easton Wood, who's having an excellent year so far and likely to make the AA side, but Edwards is a tricky customer and Wood will need to keep an eye on him.
X-Factor
Martin Gleeson has been quietly improving so far this season, even without a rising star nomination he's shown some attacking flair and speed every time he plays, especially with his foot skills delivering inside 50.
Key stat
Essendon: Hitouts to advantage. Essendon's midfield can hardly touch the ball because the rucks haven't provided them well enough.
Western Bulldogs: Uncontested possessions. The Bulldogs are usually strong on the inside but they struggle on the outside.
Tip.
Essendon are on a 6 game winning streak, but have fallen into a hole recently and as such I'm going with Western Bulldogs by 13
Essendon: Had a small loss against Port Adelaide in a promising display. Brent Stanton was impressive for Essendon, gathering the ball 32 times, and defender cum forward Cale Hooker kicked 3 goals in an impressive marking display.
Western Bulldogs:
Head to Head (Last 5)
Essendon 5-0 Western Bulldogs
Sportsbet odds
Essendon $2.40
Western Bulldogs $1.55
Line $1.92 +/-10.5 points.
Possible Sides
Essendon vs Western Bulldogs
B: Baguley - Hooker - Gwilt
F: Hunter - Redpath - Crameri
HB: Goddard - Hurley - Hibberd
HF: Dahlhaus - Stringer - Daniel
C: J Merrett - Hocking - Stanton
C: Macrae - Bontempelli - Dickson
HF: Zaharakis - McKernan - Z Merrett
HB: Murphy - Morris - Wood
F: Edwards - Daniher - Howlett
B: Johannisen - Roughead - M Boyd
R: Giles - Kavanagh - Heppell
R: Campbell - Wallis - Picken
I: Langford - Gleeson - Browne
I: Darley - Biggs - Prudden
S: Laverde
S: Dale
Essendon defence vs Western Bulldogs forward line
This is an area of concern for the Bulldogs, having a goals per inside 50 percentage of 23%, a bit below the league average. Their mark per inside 50 is the worst in the league, only taking a mark 18% of the time when they enter the forward 50, well below the league average. Essendon are good in this area, averaging 23% goals per inside 50 conceded and at 21% for marks per inside 50, both below the league average . When it comes to match-ups, Jack Redpath will likely be the #1 KPF, which is a tough ask for an 8 game player who's only averaging 1 goal/game across his career and will likely come up against All Australian key defender in Cale Hooker. Michael Hurley kept former team mate Stewart Crameri to 1 goal in his 2 games last year and will likely try to replicate that form again, against a guy who's only averaging 1 goal/game this season in his 11 games so far. Jake Stringer was on fire the last time these sides met, but James Gwilt has never been disgraced since removing the white from his jumper and will likely be able to contain the key forward. Mark Baguley is likely to combat Luke Dahlhaus, who has kicked 7 goals the last 3 times he's played Essendon and has a knack of playing well against the boys in red and black.
Midfield battle (including rucks).
An area of the game Essendon have struggled in this season and conversely Western Bulldogs have excelled in. Essendon's clearance differential this season is second last, only ahead of Geelong. Western Bulldogs on the flipside have a top 8 ranking of it. In terms of contested possession differential, Essendon are 16th and Bulldogs are 10th, but still a significant gap between them. Essendon will be welcoming back Heath Hocking this week which should help this area, with his blocking and nudges important for the likes of Dyson Heppell inside, who has had a lack of support there for the most part this season. Hocking will also be able to tag someone like Liam Picken, who has been in red hot form this season, averaging a tad under 24 disposals, including 3 games of 30 disposals or more. Western Bulldogs inside stocks have some strength in there, with Marcus Bontempelli and Mitch Wallis also likely to play roles inside. The latter will probably try to tag Heppell inside, as that's where a lot of Essendon's drive comes from. On the outside, Jackson Macrae and Brent Stanton look to be an interesting head to head battle, with Macrae having some comparisons to a young Stanton in his attributes. The ruck battle will be one to watch, with both sides struggling in that department, Essendon likely to bring Jonathon Giles into help out Shaun McKernan after another dominant display in the VFL and Tom Campbell coming into his 3rd game of the year, likely to be supported by Redpath or Jordan Roughead.
Essendon forwards vs Port defence
Essendon's forward line has struggled again this season for a multitude of reasons. Their goals per inside 50 ratio is well below the league average, a tad under 21%. Their marks per inside 50 ratio is a below the league average at 20%. Bulldogs concede a goal 23% of the time they enter the forward 50, a bit below the league average but are the 2nd worst in terms of marks per inside 50, averaging over 25%, only better than Brisbane. Joe Daniher will be the main danger for the Dogs, with Roughead a possibility to split time between ruck and defence it will be important for him to make those periods count for something against Dale Morris most likely. McKernan and Giles should also take advantage of this period, with their next tallest defender being captain Robert Murphy, who gives away 10 cm to McKernan and 14 cm to Giles. Shaun Edwards will likely be matched up against Easton Wood, who's having an excellent year so far and likely to make the AA side, but Edwards is a tricky customer and Wood will need to keep an eye on him.
X-Factor
Martin Gleeson has been quietly improving so far this season, even without a rising star nomination he's shown some attacking flair and speed every time he plays, especially with his foot skills delivering inside 50.
Key stat
Essendon: Hitouts to advantage. Essendon's midfield can hardly touch the ball because the rucks haven't provided them well enough.
Western Bulldogs: Uncontested possessions. The Bulldogs are usually strong on the inside but they struggle on the outside.
Tip.
Essendon are on a 6 game winning streak, but have fallen into a hole recently and as such I'm going with Western Bulldogs by 13
