Global energy crisis unfolding

[Kwality]

Is a global energy crisis unfolding as we sleep:

Wall Street Breakfast: Global Energy Crisis

Energy prices continue to surge to fresh records as renewed fears stoke panic of the worst shortage in decades. India has warned it has only four days of coal reserves left, German power plants are running out of fuel and China just unloaded an Australian coal shipment despite an import ban and icy relations. Supply is just not there as economies rebound from a pandemic-induced lull, while problems like logistical logjams and transport bottlenecks are adding to the pressure.

Bigger picture: OPEC+ didn't come to the rescue yesterday as the group decided to continue its original plan of gradually releasing 400,000 additional barrels of oil per month. That's despite calls from world leaders, including the White House, to bring more crude on to the market and keep a lid on prices. According to the EIA, average daily crude production in the U.S. has been 6.7% lower than last year, while commercial stockpiles of crude, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, are off by 15% compared to 2020.

That's helping send oil prices to their highest levels in three years, with Brent (CO1:COM) and WTI crude (CL1:COM) touching $82 and $78 a barrel, respectively. High natural gas prices (NG1:COM) are also prompting American utilities to switch to coal this year, but their supply is constrained by miners that have cut capacity by 40% over the last six years. This past week, coal from the central Appalachia region rose $2.20 to $73.25, up 35% YTD and the highest level since May 2019.

Thought bubble: "Investors are underappreciating the structural changes that have taken place in the North American energy landscape that could lead to these higher prices persisting for some time," wrote Lucas Pipes, an analyst with B. Riley Securities. Some are even calling the current situation the first major energy crisis of the clean power transition, with President Biden setting a goal to decarbonize the economy by 2050 (power demand is expected to increase 60% by then). "It is a cautionary message about how complex the energy transition is going to be," added Daniel Yergin, author of The New Map: Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations

Wall Street Breakfast: Global Energy Crisis

Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Stitcher and Spotify.

seekingalpha.com

 

[Kwality]

The next several decades could see more periods of energy-driven inflation, fuel shortages and lost economic growth as electricity supplies are left vulnerable to shocks.
October 5, 2021, 3:01 PM GMT+11 Updated on October 5, 2021, 8:40 PM GMT+11



The world is living through the first major energy crisis of the clean-power transition. It won’t be the last.

The shortages jolting natural gas and electricity markets from the U.K. to China are unfolding just as demand roars back from the pandemic. But the planet has faced volatile energy markets and supply squeezes for decades. What’s different now is that the richest economies are also undergoing one of the most ambitious overhauls of their power systems since the dawn of the electric age -- with no easy way to store the energy generated from renewable sources.

The transition to cleaner energy is designed to make those systems more resilient, not less. But the actual switch will take decades, during which the world will still rely on fossil fuels even as major producers are now drastically shifting their output strategies.

The pain hitting Europe is an ominous sign of the types of shocks that could strike more of the globe. Even as solar and wind power become increasingly plentiful and cheap, many parts of the world will for decades still depend on natural gas and other fossil fuels as backups. And yet, investor and company interest in producing more of them is waning.

Global Energy Crisis Shows Fragility of Clean-Power Era

Energy-driven inflation. Fuel shortages. Lost economic growth. Here's what to expect as electricity supplies are left vulnerable to shocks.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Balls In]

Quick, lets sign up to net zero!

 

[Kwality]

As coal stocks shrink, India faces growing energy shortage crisis
Coal-fired power stations have an average of four days’ worth of fuel, while more than 50 percent of plants are on outage alert.


India is grappling with an escalating crisis as stockpiles of coal, the fuel used to generate about 70% of the nation’s electricity, dwindle to the lowest in years just as power demand is set to surge.

Coal-fired power stations have an average of four days’ worth of stock of the fuel, according to the latest data, and more than half the plants are already on alert for outages. Power Minister Raj Kumar Singh has warned that the nation could be handling a supply squeeze for as long as six months.

As coal stocks shrink, India faces growing energy shortage crisis

Power stations only have average of four days’ worth of fuel while more than 50 percent of plants are on outage alert.

www.aljazeera.com

India could run out of coal soon. So why is a country with such big reserves facing shortages?

More than half of India's coal plants will run out of energy by the end of the week, according to government sources, leaving the world's second-most populous country in crisis. We explain the factors leading to India's alarming coal shortage.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Kwality]

China turns to stranded Australian coal to combat power crunch

After sitting in warehouses on China's coast since Beijing's unofficial ban began last October, an estimated 1 million tonnes of Australian coal is now being put to use, according to traders.

www.abc.net.au

Key points:

• About 1 million tonnes of Australian coal have been stranded in Chinese warehouses
• China has been accessing the coal since "the end of last month", a trader says
• Surging demand from China and India has pushed coal prices to record highs

"China has been pushing other suppliers to meet its demand. However, there are challenges, such as rains in Indonesia, and Russian coal being more in demand in Europe."

 

[Kwality]

The view of the renewables flagship in Aus:

https://reneweconomy.com.au/china-has-stuffed-up-its-economy-and-now-the-world-will-pay-the-price/

'On the one hand, from a carbon emissions perspective, it’s wonderful that the 40% expansion in coal electricity and steel has only led to a 9% increase in coal consumption.

On the other hand, the ability to take from other sectors to feed the thermal electricity industry has clear limits, and I’d argue it’s showing up in 2021.'

 

[Kwality]

The Conversation: In-depth analysis, research, news and ideas from leading academics and researchers.

Curated by professional editors, The Conversation offers informed commentary and debate on the issues affecting our world. Plus a Plain English guide to the latest developments and discoveries from the university and research sector.

theconversation.com

chinas-energy-crisis-shows-just-how-hard-it-will-be-to-reach-net-zero-169478

'So how did China get into this situation, and what does it mean for the world’s efforts to reach net zero?

China has a so-called dual control target for national environmental protection, which is about cutting both energy consumption and the amount of energy that goes into each unit of GDP (known as energy intensity).

To this end, China has been cracking down on coal, which still generates around two-thirds of its electricity. The state has been shutting down small and inefficient mines and putting restrictions on coal production. Consequently, coal output has been falling in many months in 2021, while coal imports were also low.

But this drove up the price of coal, and electricity-generating companies could not pass on the costs to consumers because of national price caps. Faced with generating electricity at a loss, major players have simply stopped producing.'

Q: will Australia be facing that scenario some time soon ?

Causes, Effects and Solutions to Global Energy Crisis - Conserve Energy Future

The global energy crisis is the concern that the world’s demands on the limited natural resources that are used to power industrial society are diminishing as the demand rises.

www.conserve-energy-future.com

 

[Kwality]

Lebanon not looking good: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-10/lebanon-main-power-plants-shut/100527430

Lebanon's two main power plants were forced to shut down after running out of fuel, leaving the small country with no government-produced power.

Key points:

• The state electricity company says a power plant in the south was shut because of a fuel shortage
• Electricite De Liban says the shutdown reduces the total power supply to below 270 megawatts
• The country's electricity minister says Lebanon will use military supplies of fuel for power

The government has gradually raised prices of fuel and diesel as the central bank cut back on subsidising dollars for imports ...

 

[Kwality]

11.10

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-rust-belt-province-warns-

more-power-shortages-energy-crisis-2021-10-11/

The drop in output from power plants followed tightening supply and sky-rocketing prices for coal, used to generate more than 70% of electricity in the region. Wind farms have also been idled due to slow wind speeds. Wind power made up 8.2% of Liaoning's power generation in 2020.

A global energy crisis is coming. There's no quick fix

Astronomical increases in natural gas prices. Skyrocketing coal costs. Predictions of $100 oil.

edition.cnn.com

 

[Kwality]

As demand increases amid the pandemic, there is a shortage of supply – and prices are rising rapidly.

Global energy crisis: how key countries are responding

As demand increases amid the pandemic, there is a shortage of supply – and prices are rising rapidly

www.theguardian.com

France and Spain are leading calls to reform the bloc’s liberalised energy market, although EU officials have signalled a mixed response to any sweeping changes. The EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson expects gas prices to “gradually decrease” from spring. Officials will also be hoping Russia follows through on its promise to increase gas supplies on the short-term market, further easing the pressure.

 

[Seeds]

Oil prices were as high as 160 dollars per barrel 13 years ago.

80 dollars is no big deal. Especially given there has been 13 years of inflation since 2008.

 

[Kwality]

EU:

Energy prices have hit record highs for various reasons, including high demand for natural gas as economies recover from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The European Commission has been under pressure to act on the price crunch.
The wholesale price of gas has increased by 250% since January, triggering a knock-on spike in costs for consumers and businesses.
On Wednesday the Commission's energy chief, Kadri Simson, said the EU's executive was responding to calls for action by unveiling an "energy price toolbox".

Russia denies weaponising energy amid Europe gas crisis

The Russian president says his country is not to blame for high gas prices elsewhere in Europe.

www.bbc.com

The toolbox outlines steps member states can take to reduce energy bills in their countries without breaching EU law. It mostly confirms the measures national governments can already use, but considers what more the Commission can do.

Ms Simson said member states were best placed to ease the burden of rising energy prices as winter approaches.

She urged EU countries to consider emergency income support for vulnerable households, state aid for companies, and targeted tax reductions.

She also advised member states to temporarily pause bill payments where necessary, and put in place safeguards to avoid disconnections from the grid.
"Rising global energy prices are a serious concern for the EU," Ms Simson said. "As we emerge from the pandemic and begin our economic recovery, it is important to protect vulnerable consumers and support European companies."

 

[Kwality]

Some people have seen this crisis coming:

Fundies realise riches from energy crisis they saw coming

Australia’s leading fund managers have made the most of the energy crisis, reaping the rewards of soaring gas, coal and oil prices.

www.afr.com

S&P Global Platts’ Japan-Korea-Marker – widely used as a benchmark for spot LNG contracts – has risen 153 per cent in the past three months; US Henry Hub Natural Gas has climbed 49 per cent over the same period.

In oil, Brent crude prices are up 14 per cent during the past three months. Newcastle 6000 kilocalorie thermal coal is up 70 per cent.

Investors say most energy stocks on the local sharemarket are still trading at a steep discount relative to commodity prices because of investor reluctance to back fossil fuels, and the capex burden that energy businesses typically face.

UBS concludes that most of the local energy producers are trading at levels that imply an oil price of less than $US60 a barrel. But on Friday, Brent crude was trading at $US84 a barrel.

“What was very clear is globally, the oil stocks didn’t follow the commodity and even more curiously, the Australian names lagged even that,” Mr Maple-Brown said.

“They were absolutely in the gutter and that’s where we like to look.”
“The signal these companies have been getting is not to invest and that always leads to less supply and if demand even pops a little bit, then there’s going to be a squeeze,” said Mr Maple-Brown.

“OPEC has been a bit slow to respond and while Woodside has a couple of projects, globally, the capital expenditure has been poor.”

 

[Kwality]

We've never been immune from the movements in the price of fuel:

Melbourne petrol prices at highest ever seen in Australia

www.9news.com.au

Petrol prices in Victoria are the highest the country has ever experienced, just as the state prepares to get out of lockdown.
Petrol has been priced at a staggering $1.84 per litre in Sandringham in Melbourne's south-east today.
Across the city, prices varied a huge 37 cents, but the average unleaded price per litre was $1.79.

 

[Kwality]

'UK steel manufacturers have made a fresh appeal for urgent government intervention in the energy crisis, warning they are the laughing stock of Europe after being forced to pause production on multiple occasions recently.

It comes a day after the Scottish Power chief executive, Keith Anderson, said Britain’s energy market faced an “absolute massacre” that could force at least 20 suppliers into bankruptcy in the next month unless the government reviews the energy price cap.'

UK steel: European rivals laughing at us over energy crisis

Manufacturers repeat call for urgent government action after pausing production on multiple occasions

www.theguardian.com

'Trade bodies are now warning it is not just gas but also electricity price hikes that are causing a crisis in manufacturing. Gareth Stace, the director of UK Steel, said the cost of electricity jumped from an average of £250 a megawatt hour to £1,000 last Friday, with similar spikes happening erratically for more than a month.'

Not a lot of joy in Scotland with COP26 due in Glasgow next weekend ...

 

[Kwality]

Supply Chain Crisis Risks Taking the Global Economy Down With It

It’s not just a problem of moving stuff around. The world is still struggling to make enough stuff too.

www.bloomberg.com

The outlook is not good.

 

[Kwality]

Why the energy crisis could scupper the global economic revival | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News

Traffic lights turned off in China. People in Europe worried they won’t have enough gas to last the winter. Surging electricity bills in Japan. A sweeping energy crisis has emerged as a serious threat to the global economy just as it starts to recover from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

www3.nhk.or.jp

Why the energy crisis could scupper the global economic revival
China’s power crunch is partly the result of a feud with the country that once supplied roughly a third of its coal. Beijing banned imports of the fuel from Australia after Canberra backed calls for an inquiry into China’s early handling of the COVID-19 outbreak.

.... New policies to fight climate change have led to smaller supplies of high-emission sources of energy. But renewable energy production is not yet sufficient to make up for this shortfall.

Many oil importers are now calling on major producers, such as OPEC+ members, to ramp up production in the short-term. But analysts say those countries are reluctant to do so as the current high prices will help them make up for losses incurred during the pandemic.

Economists are worried the crisis will lead to a period of stagflation that would derail the post-coronavirus recovery.

 

[Kwality]

Woodside seals oil, gas megadeals

The company will be transformed by a $41 billion merger with BHP Petroleum and a $16.5 billion LNG project as new boss Meg O’Neill secures 30 years of exports.

www.afr.com

'Woodside Petroleum is set to be transformed by a $41 billion merger deal with BHP Petroleum and a $16.5 billion LNG project as new CEO Meg O’Neill secures another 30 years of gas exports the company is adamant will be needed despite the transition to low-carbon energy.

The binding deal creates a top-10 global oil and gas producer, with production across Australia, the US, Africa and the Caribbean with the financial firepower to both invest in near-term growth projects and fund investments in new energy, Ms O’Neill said.'

 

[Kwality]

Coal power stations fire up as wind fails to blow

Hourly power prices are set to surge on Tuesday evening as low wind levels mean more expensive coal-powered plants will need to be fired up.

www.telegraph.co.uk

India criticised over coal at Cop26 – but real villain was climate injustice

Experts say country’s watering down of fossil fuel pledge reflected its lack of choices

www.theguardian.com

The Brits went the early crow on coal & needs more coal power not NIL as previously claimed.

 

[Kwality]

Australia sees energy shortages driving record resource export earnings

Australia has raised its outlook for mining and energy export earnings to a record $272 billion.

www.mining.com

Annual mining and energy export revenue is expected to jump 22% in the year to June 2022, up from a previous forecast of A$349 billion.

“Coal is the star performer. Australia’s high-quality coal is finding new markets across Asia, including India, with Australian producers enjoying record price increases across all grades of coal,” Resources Minister Keith Pitt said in a statement.

Rising consumption in China, India and the United States could bring global coal-fired power demand to an all-time high this year, undermining efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

The government raised its forecast for thermal coal export earnings to A$35 billion for 2021-22, more than double last year’s revenue and up from its previous projection of A$24 billion. Prices have been buoyed by utilities racing to stock up for winter.

“With energy inventories lower than normal, the severity of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere winter will have a critical influence on energy markets in the short term,” the department said.

Coal and gas price gains have more than offset a drop in iron ore prices, Australia’s top commodity export, to an 18-month low.

 

[Kwality]

Indonesia secures coal supplies amid hopes of end to export ban

The world’s top exporter of the coal used in power plants banned exports to avoid power outages.

www.aljazeera.com

The world’s top exporter of the coal used in power plants banned exports to avoid power outages.

Indonesia’s state utility secured an extra 7.5 million tonnes of coal supplies on Tuesday, helping to avert power outages, boost stocks and increase the chances of the government lifting its export ban soon.

The island country, the world’s top exporter of the coal used in power plants and China’s largest overseas supplier, on Saturday announced a ban on exports during January to avoid outages at domestic generators.


UK energy crisis needs fighting on multiple fronts
Failure of energy market regulation is giving way to a cost of living crisis with no easy fix

UK energy crisis needs fighting on multiple fronts

Failure of energy market regulation is giving way to a cost of living crisis with no easy fix

www.ft.com

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2022/01/03/

how-europes-energy-crisis-could-force-the-eu-to-adopt-more-sensible-policies/?sh=13944e4d3ed3
As of Jan. 1, Bloomberg reporter Sergio Chapa had identified 49 U.S. LNG cargoes bound for Europe to help the continent avoid a full-fledged energy crisis as winter sets in. It is the largest flotilla of U.S. vessels with the goal of saving Europe from its own folly since the D-Day invasion of June 6, 1944.


Europe’s energy crisis deepened during December, as various EU member countries, along with Great Britain, resorted to burning more coal and fuel oil due to under-performance by wind power. It is a crisis created almost entirely by efforts by these governments to force a premature energy transition using wind and other renewable energy sources that are not ready to bear the load of retiring coal, nuclear and natural gas-fired power plants.

 

[Mateyman]

Coal power stations fire up as wind fails to blow

Hourly power prices are set to surge on Tuesday evening as low wind levels mean more expensive coal-powered plants will need to be fired up.

www.telegraph.co.uk

India criticised over coal at Cop26 – but real villain was climate injustice

Experts say country’s watering down of fossil fuel pledge reflected its lack of choices

www.theguardian.com

The Brits went the early crow on coal & needs more coal power not NIL as previously claimed.

Yep egg on their face using coal for a couple percent of their energy needs

 

[Kwality]

The prospect of conflict in Ukraine has caused Europe to consider the energy coming out of Russia :

If Russia invades, sanction its oil and gas | Brookings

If Russia invades Ukraine, the U.S. and European Union should target muscular sanctions at Moscow's energy exports and earnings, Michael E. O'Hanlon and David G. Victor argue.

www.brookings.edu

'the Biden administration and Europe, alike, have deliberately excluded oil and gas trade from threatened sanctions.'

Over the short term, there are worries that an invasion could cause a shutoff of Russian gas that flows across Ukraine to Western customers — especially those in places like Austria and Slovakia that don’t have enough other sources of fuel.

 

[awaremind]

I wonder how high fuel prices would go if Russian energy sources were cut off to western nations?

 

[ChampRevesby]

I wonder how high fuel prices would go if Russian energy sources were cut off to western nations?

It's all trending in the same direction regardless, the EU are sabotaging their own energy independence and security, we should learn and learn quickly from their mistakes.