Society/Culture Japan population crisis

[Zidane98]

Alarming figures coming out of Japan

Japan's new births fall to record low, while fewer couples marry

The number of babies born in Japan falls for an eighth straight year to a record new low last year, according to government data and a top official says the country must reverse the trend in the coming years.

www.abc.net.au

Pretty much many families in Japan are only having 1 child and are waiting until later in life to do so. This is the effect of uber high living standards. Career standard are high, everyone wants to be successful in a job. Have visited Japan myself and can't believe just how well run everything is. Everyone, down to the most mundane of jobs, does everything with complete pride.


Unfortunately if things don't change Japan's population is set to decline to around 87 million by 2070 from 125 million right now. By then if things don't change 4 out of every 10 citizens in Japan will be aged 65 or older. That obviously isn't sustainable.


This is very relevant to Australia with Japan being such a huge trading partner.

 

[Jazny]

They can choose to have children or not, it's up to them. I guess they will just have to invent ways for their younger people to be more productive in the future. AI and other technologies can do the same jobs a lot of people are doing now in maybe 10 or 20 years. What is the solution, force Japanese people to have children? Why should we worry about this?

 

[Zidane98]

They can choose to have children or not, it's up to them. I guess they will just have to invent ways for their younger people to be more productive in the future. AI and other technologies can do the same jobs a lot of people are doing now in maybe 10 or 20 years. What is the solution, force Japanese people to have children? Why should we worry about this?

Sounds like they're going to start putting out baby bonuses, free childcare etc.


Also sounds like they've started up an immigration program from China.



Not sure if that's enough by itself.

 

[ShanDog]

They can choose to have children or not, it's up to them. I guess they will just have to invent ways for their younger people to be more productive in the future. AI and other technologies can do the same jobs a lot of people are doing now in maybe 10 or 20 years. What is the solution, force Japanese people to have children? Why should we worry about this?

It's never a question of force, it's about incentives, which is where government policy is hugely influential. Population pyramids need to be managed or there are significant negative effects for a country.

 

[Jazny]

It's never a question of force, it's about incentives, which is where government policy is hugely influential. Population pyramids need to be managed or there are significant negative effects for a country.

People should be brought into existence because their parents love them and want children, not because they are incentivized by a government who are worried about a diminishing work force!

 

[ShanDog]

People should be brought into existence because their parents love them and want children, not because they are incentivized by a government who are worried about a diminishing work force!

Sure, at the individual/family level, that's correct. At the macro level, that's where these issues require careful government planning to produce the desired outcomes. It's two separate things.

 

[Zidane98]

People should be brought into existence because their parents love them and want children, not because they are incentivized by a government who are worried about a diminishing work force!

Japanese government are not worried about a diminishing workforce, they are worried about the future of the nation.

 

[ferball]

Sounds like they're going to start putting out baby bonuses, free childcare etc.


Also sounds like they've started up an immigration program from China.



Not sure if that's enough by itself.

My understanding is China has a similar demographic problem that's starting to rear its head and will as bad or worse for them as what will happen in Japan (and other places, like here.)

 

[barreness]

Largely a good thing, less resource/energy use. People are doing pop restrictions voluntarily because of their environment(material conditions), most species do this. Japanese pop approx; 1CE=300,000 1600=12mil 1945=71mil. It's a smallish set of islands, without fossil fuels the pop is gonna be in the low tens of millions

Those that freak out about this are asking the wrong question. Our economies only work within a growth paradigm, so change the paradigm, Ponzi doesn't last forever

 

[Rabman]

South Korea just as bad.

In South Korea, world's lowest fertility rate plunges once again

South Korea's fertility rate, already the world's lowest, is dramatically declining, as women concerned about their career advancement and the financial cost of raising children decide to delay childbirth or to not have babies.

www.abc.net.au

 

[nut]

It’s a crisis because of how capitalisation works.
It’s not sustainable unless you increase growth via an increase population …

Capitalism is a Ponzi scheme…

 

[Cyber_punk]

My understanding is China has a similar demographic problem that's starting to rear its head and will as bad or worse for them as what will happen in Japan (and other places, like here.)

Younger Chinese, even those in their 30s have the lying flat or let it rot attitude and don't see the juice is worth the squeeze...why break your back for some CEO who doesn't give a s**t about you, only to just scrape by.

You cannot have infinite growth on a finite planet.. At some point there will be a tipping point and that's what Japan among others is coming to terms with.

 

[nut]

Younger Chinese, even those in their 30s have the lying flat or let it rot attitude and don't see the juice is worth the squeeze...why break your back for some CEO who doesn't give a s**t about you, only to just scrape by.

You cannot have infinite growth on a finite planet.. At some point there will be a tipping point and that's what Japan among others is coming to terms with.

It’s why capitalism will kill its self, and probably the planet along the way.

 

[kranky al]

Largely a good thing, less resource/energy use. People are doing pop restrictions voluntarily because of their environment(material conditions), most species do this. Japanese pop approx; 1CE=300,000 1600=12mil 1945=71mil. It's a smallish set of islands, without fossil fuels the pop is gonna be in the low tens of millions

Those that freak out about this are asking the wrong question. Our economies only work within a growth paradigm, so change the paradigm, Ponzi doesn't last forever

This.

It’s a finite funking planet.

 

[ShanDog]

It’s a crisis because of how capitalisation works.
It’s not sustainable unless you increase growth via an increase population …

Capitalism is a Ponzi scheme…

It's not as simple as needing only population growth. Communist and socialist countries can run into the same issue of economic stagnation and birth rates problems, so pointing to capitalism as the root cause is folly.

 

[nut]

It's not as simple as needing only population growth. Communist and socialist countries can run into the same issue of economic stagnation and birth rates problems, so pointing to capitalism as the root cause is folly.

Sustainability is the enemy of capitalism .

 

[barreness]

It's not as simple as needing only population growth. Communist and socialist countries can run into the same issue of economic stagnation and birth rates problems, so pointing to capitalism as the root cause is folly.

Yes socialism a la USSR/China, so state capitalism, also has the issue. There's a few schools of thoughts like degrowth, ecosocialism, half earth.

Stagnation is another way of saying stabilised, so the way we measure(and what we measure) is also important. 3% a year or whatever and we consume the sun in a few hundred years, the capitalist model can't deal with anything else though.

Trading financial debt for enviromental debt, can't declare bankruptcy or do jubilees with one of these

8 billion or 10 or whenever it stops is simply too much at once, we could do billions over thousands of years but not like this, this only ends in tragedy

 

[Frank Grimes]

Japan birth rates are one of the worst, but except for India and some of the African counties, there are no countries above the 2.1 replenishing birth rate.

While financial reasons are a fair part of why people are not having many children, it is not only reason. After all Africa and India are largely impoverished and they have the highest birth rates.

The main reason is "time" in modern society. Time is More important in raising a child than money (not saying money isn't important, but isn't as important). Back 40 years ago it was possible for person to get a good job with less education and support a household on a single income, leaving one of the patents having more time to raise a child.

Due to being being able to get a good job with less education (and being able to support a household on a single income) meant that the time window of the couple having children was typically started in their early 20's giving them approximately 15 year window to have children.

These days a person typically goes to University to get an okayish job (though I'd argue it's more beneficial these days to do a trade but everybody wants to go down the university route for some reason). When they finish Uni they have a HECS debt in the 10s of thousands. They then have to contend with very expensive housing. The statistics show that most people are not marrying until their late 20's-early 30's. This is giving people only approximately a 7-10 year window to have children.

Both patents typically need to work in order to provide for their child and keep a roof over their heads. Which is bit of a paradoxical situation. If both parents need to work then there is no time to raise a child.

This is where childcare is very important in society. It allows both patents to work, but at the same time the child is being looked after and developed. However, childcare can be expensive and therefore a couple may decide not to have that extra child depending how expensive the childcare is. For myself and my wife we were $800 out of pocket every month after government subsidies (full price would have been about $110 a day without subsidies).

Anyway, in Summary due to financial pressures of today there is less time to raise children compared to 40 years ago. As a result we are seeing a birth rate less than the replenishing rate 2.1 in most of the world.

 

[Frank Grimes]

A video that might be related to t his threads topic.

 

[Frank Grimes]

My understanding is China has a similar demographic problem that's starting to rear its head and will as bad or worse for them as what will happen in Japan (and other places, like here.)

For China they tend to work 9am-9pm 6 days a week to keep their heads above water. Not sure how they expect people to have the time and energy to raise a child.

Also the one child policy was a disaster and unnecessary (the birth rate was already falling in China in the 7 years before it was implemented).

 

[Frank Grimes]

Just one more observation and future prediction of falling birth rates. With falling birth rates it will mean the population demographic will continue to have more elderly people. More elderly people means more pension. More pension means more taxes the younger people need tyo pay. The more taxes younger people need to pay means they can't afford to have more children. The young workers grow old and then rinse and repeat.

 

[ferball]

Just one more observation and future prediction of falling birth rates. With falling birth rates it will mean the population demographic will continue to have more elderly people. More elderly people means more pension. More pension means more taxes the younger people need tyo pay. The more taxes younger people need to pay means they can't afford to have more children. The young workers grow old and then rinse and repeat.

Yeah, its a feedback loop that has serious economic consequences.

 

[Seeds]

It’s a crisis because of how capitalisation works.
It’s not sustainable unless you increase growth via an increase population …

Capitalism is a Ponzi scheme…

Aging population problems dont exist because of capitalism. Capitalism deals better with aging population then any other system.

 

[Seeds]

Yeah, its a feedback loop that has serious economic consequences.

It's not a feedback loop at all. By this argument birth rates would of sky-rocketed over the second half of 20th century across the western world as tax rates crashed. And yet birth rates fell sharply over this period.

Even if tax rates rise they won't outpace economic growth per capita and thus Japanese people will continue to get richer just as they have been.

Low birth rates are driven by changing social norms and better access to fertility prevention measures. It has nothing to do with taxes. Zip.

 

[ferball]

It's not a feedback loop at all. By this argument birth rates would of sky-rocketed over the second half of 20th century across the western world as tax rates crashed. And yet birth rates fell sharply over this period.

Even if tax rates rise they won't outpace economic growth per capita and thus Japanese people will continue to get richer just as they have been.

Low birth rates are driven by changing social norms and better access to fertility prevention measures. It has nothing to do with taxes. Zip.

What are you on about?