Lamaros' Footy Bets 2013-15

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lamaros

lamaros

Norm Smith Medallist
Veteran
Oct 15, 2007
7,247
3,064
Sydney
AFL Club
Essendon
I did this all in a spreadsheet last season, but I dunno if I'm going to be that keen this time around so I'll put them in here instead.

I worked $30 up to ~$110 last season and I'm starting with $97.55 from here (foolishly bet on the NAB cup).

I'm betting with Betfair so my lowest bets are going to be $5. Once I get to $150 I'll probably look at taking half out and putting it down somewhere else, so I can work the odds a bit better.

I'll be putting in most of my bets here before each game, with the odds taken, but I'm not trying to prove anything much so if some are a bit late you'll just have to take me on my word.

At the moment I like the look of North, Richmond, Port and St. Kilda, but I'm going to wait for teams before I dip into the second part of round one.
 
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Busy Easter weekend meant I couldn't get the bets up here before the games, but oh well.

They were as follows:

1U WB @ $4.20 = WIN $16
1U Port @ $2.08 = WIN 5.40
1U Hawks over 15.5 @ $2.42 = LOSE $5

Account is up to $112.88
 

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balmainforever said:
I'd be careful about posting bets after the fact lamaros
It's against the rules here. :mad:
Click to expand...

I can't even do it in my own tracking thread? :(

I guess when I miss a chance to post in the future I'll just say "I made some bets, the changed the balance from X to Y".

Anyhow, won't do so in future if them the rules: here's the record from those three.

bets30mar.jpg
 
Liking the look of St. Kilda. -11.5 @ $5.70. Will wait for their ins, but if Montagna, Fisher, Schnieder and Dempster all come up I'll be on it.

Will very likely have 2U on Adelaide and 1U on Carlton.

Everything else is a bit meh. Will wait to see some more lines, but I'm not enamored.
 
Actually $5.70 is too good for me, not going to wait on the team for this one.

Confirmed Bets

1U Saints -11.5 @ $5.70
 
Well, none of the longer shots got up this week, but the two H2H choices did, moving me up to $120.07.

+4.504U YTD.

For round three my current thoughts are:

Essendon are good value anywhere north of $2 in what looks to be a line-ball match to me.
Geelong has flattered themselves with results, but sooner or later they're going to start losing these games where they go 30 points behind. Carlton will stay hungry and I'd take them north of $2.
Do I write off Brisbane again? GC might be worth a look if they sneak towards $4.
St. Kilda are good value at $1.30 - get on now or hope for better odds?
Melbourne are better value against an injury ravaged WC than Essendon, but it's still probably throwing money away.
Not touching North games with a barge pole - they will pinch one eventually.
Wait for team for Collingwood v Hawks.
Adelaide are great value against a Port team that has been flattered by shocking opponents so far.
If WB get past $4 I'm on them again.
 
2U Essendon @ $2.66
2U Sydney @ 1.71
1U WB @ 4.10
2U Carlton @ 2.60

Jumped in early this week. Hopefully no regrets. Think I will get on a few others when the line odds come.
 
anabac said:
"Not touching north games with a barge pole"

Fast forward 3 days

"2 units Sydney $1.71"

Good luck though Lam, I'm just pullin the piss
Click to expand...

Yeah, I got carried away when I saw 1.71, didn't think Swans would be that high.

Hope I don't get burnt!
 
I went way too early this week. Essendon, Carlton, Sydney all gone out even more.

Tempted to jump on Essendon over 15.5 at $4.40, but with all the bleh about Hird I'm probably not going to.
 

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lamaros said:
2U Essendon @ $2.66
2U Sydney @ 1.71
1U WB @ 4.10
2U Carlton @ 2.60

Jumped in early this week. Hopefully no regrets. Think I will get on a few others when the line odds come.
Click to expand...

All my odds have gotten better since I placed them. Damn you! Essendon now $3, Sydney now $1.80, WB, $4.20 and Carlton $2.74.

I think I might have to follow Sydney and Essendon in for another unit.
 
A further look at the teams has got me considering Freo my favourite to win now, so I'll put another unit on them later tonight. Collingwood will likely get 1U if the odds continue to look good. I might re-check the Port odds too - could be worth another unit.
 
lamaros said:
A further look at the teams has got me considering Freo my favourite to win now, so I'll put another unit on them later tonight. Collingwood will likely get 1U if the odds continue to look good. I might re-check the Port odds too - could be worth another unit.
Click to expand...

Well, I didn't end up doing either of these - no biggie in the end, would have been no real loss or gain from it.

Thanks to Carlton actually doing the job this week I've finished with another handy effort, but I might put a few on tomorrow so no summary yet. Though only Melbourne looks even halfway close to value.
 
Tempted by Freo, WC and Carlton (2U bets). Will wait for some better odds before I jump though.

Given Richmonds outs though maybe I should jump on Freo earlier... Gah!

Hmm, Melb probably worth 1U too... Decisions...
 
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