Not bottoming out – have we made a mistake?

[A FEW GOOD MEN]

No, that was someone else. That was someone who gave a s**t what you thought. Me on the other hand, don't.

Learjet mate, then Megan and I can fly off on our honeymoon.

I thought it must be a different Alex, the old Alex would never have come back with his tail between his legs after declaring that he would never return.

Life can be difficult if you have nothing to focus your anger upon. Have you considered changing to a Melbourne supporter?

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

We haven't played West Coast yet - and playing them on our turf (or neutral turf for that matter) doesn't hold any particular fears. Heck, a lot of people are saying that West Coast are overrated because they're top having only played 3 of the top 8 teams so far.. At least we've played 5 of them and won 3. I'm tipping that we'll beat them when we do eventually play them, given that we'll have the home ground advantage.

That's laughable. Lets wait until the week of the West Coast game and some bright sparks brings up the West Coast curse or some shizzen like that. Playing West Coast in Melbourne isn't a worry, playing a preliminary finals to make the grand final in Adelaide or Perth is. Last time we played West Coast in Adelaide they beat us by just on 40 points and the last preliminary finals, the less said the better.

Hawthorn are vastly overrated and the odds of us meeting them in Melbourne would be fairly low. I'm quite confident that we could account for them if we were to play at Football Park. Unless we suffer an upset loss, then the only way we'll play them in Melbourne is if they make the GF - in which case we won't have to worry about Collingwood!

If my glass is perpetually half empty kind of guy, you're an arrogant and condescending muppet. The last time we played Hawthorn they flogged us, they were also only 3 seconds away from playing in a GF; where as we were a dead set rabble. Show them some respect. Go and do a ladder predictor, take your beer goggles off and you will see that Hawthorne have a very good chance at making the top 4 with West Coast, Collingwood and us. We may meet them in the first week of the finals. However, if we do lose, it won't be because we have played a better side and our own expectations were so far up someone rear end it will be nothing but an upset. Like the St kilda upset in 05 or Collingwood in 08 and 09 and every other final we have played in the past few years.

Collingwood are the only team who are capable of worrying us both home & away. Most people are tipping Adelaide & Collingwood to finish 1st & 2nd on the ladder, so the odds are that we won't see them until the GF. Any team making it to the GF must surely be considered a premiership contender, no?

I don't care where we finish, the draw and therefore the ladder positions of teams will be skewed in favor of that outcome. The real results occur when teams mean in finals. The best against the best and that is when you will find out of we are a contender or not. As I said, come 3/4 time of the preliminary finals and we are within 1 goal or leading will indicate if we are a true contender.

You're not so much a "glass half full" kind of guy, as a "my glass is perpetually empty" kind of guy then?

More like having a realistic view of things and then creating that change when that change is demanded by positive performances. Not make shift performances against B grade sides. Until we beat a Hawthorn, Collingwood, Geelong in Melbourne I don't believe we are a real contender. Until we can beat West Coast, I don't believe this year we can look any further than the preliminary finals.

 

[Carmo]

I'm a contender to marry Megan Fox. Is it going to happen in reality, no it's not.

Well, with a negative attitude like that of course its not.....glad the crows dont think that way!

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

I thought it must be a different Alex, the old Alex would never had come back with his tail between his legs after declaring that he would never return.

Whatever floats your boat and allows you to sleep at night.

Life can be difficult if you have nothing to focus your anger upon. Have you considered changing to a Melbourne supporter?

So, I'm not allowed to be pessimistic based on past performances regarding a number of factors?

I'm not allowed to hold that permissive until they team I supports gives me enough reason to change that to being optimistic?

Go back to March and you will see I tipped us to finish 4th or 5th but this year we are not going to be good enough to contend for the premiership. We are following West Coasts time time. Next year we will improve and then have that added ability to match Collingwood, Hawthorn and West Coast and will have gone past Geelong.

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

Well, with a negative attitude like that of course its not.....glad the crows dont think that way!

Ok Little engine that could.

 

[Carmo]

• Most importantly, our team is playing a "brand" of football which is designed to win finals.

Pedantic I know but at this point in time we have to say our team WAS playing a brand of football etc etc. We had it really well against geelong and carlton, even against collingwood, but it definitely wasn't present against fremantle or st kilda. Bit of a concern really....

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

• Most importantly, our team is playing a "brand" of football which is designed to win finals.

Unless we suffer a massive form reversal we should finish in the top 2. Any team which finishes that high deserves to be rated as a premiership contender.

Let me ask you this; back in 2005 and more importantly 2006 you would have said the exact same thing and look how that turned out. It's been proven that the formula that Neil Craig tried to play with, wasn't conducive to finals football. How can you say the same thing with this formula?

I like Brenton Sanderson and expect us to show that same improvement next year but what we are playing now, didn't stand up against Hawthorn and didn't stand up against Collingwood. We have to wait and see how it will go against West Coast but it's only June. Way too early to make that call yet.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

Were Port Adelaide a contender in 2007?

Not really, they made the game but didn't really deserve to be there.

They played in the Grand Final. The bookmakers I would suggest had them at shorter odds than the Crows in 1997/1998.

Were we contenders then?

 

[Vader]

That's laughable. Lets wait until the week of the West Coast game and some bright sparks brings up the West Coast curse or some shizzen like that. Playing West Coast in Melbourne isn't a worry, playing a preliminary finals to make the grand final in Adelaide or Perth is. Last time we played West Coast in Adelaide they beat us by just on 40 points and the last preliminary finals, the less said the better.

I'd be very concerned if we had to play a final against the Weagles in Perth.. but anywhere else? We've won 2 of our last 3 games against the Weagles at home. That PF is ancient history - only 6 players in our current team were involved that day (Johncock, Rutten, VB, Doughty, Thompson & Reilly) and West Coast's numbers aren't much different.

Yes, they beat us twice last year. We were awful last year and anyone who didn't beat us is/was a running joke themselves. Go back to 2010 and it was our turn to win both games that year. All games in 2008 & 2009 were won by the home team.

If my glass is perpetually half empty kind of guy, your an arrogant and condescending muppet.

Get over yourself. All I'm saying is that your posting, particularly in this thread, is 100% negative - which it is.

The last time we played Hawthorn they flogged us, they were also only 3 seconds away from playing in a GF where as we were a dead set rabble. Show them some respect. Go and do a ladder predictor, take your beer goggles off and you will see that Hawthorne have a very good chance at making the top 4 with West Coast, Collingwood and us. We may meet them in the first week of the finals. However, if we do lose, it won't be because we have played a better side and our own expectations were so far up someone read end it will be nothing but an upset. Like the St kilda upset in 05 or Collingwood in 08 and 09 and every other final we have played in the past few years.

Hawthorn have lost to Geelong, West Coast, Sydney & Richmond already this year. Their run home includes return games against three of these teams (Geelong, West Coast & Sydney) plus Collingwood (who haven't lost since R3). The odds on them finishing in the top-4 wouldn't be all that great. If they finish outside the top-4 then they probably won't make the PF and we won't have to worry about them.

Even if they do make the top-4, they haven't beaten us at home since 2008. Yep, they whip our butts at York Park, but we almost always return the favour on our own deck.

I don't care where we finish, the draw and therefore the ladder positions of teams will be skewed in favor of that outcome. The real results occur when teams mean in finals. The best against the best and that is when you will find out of we are a contender or not. As I said, come 3/4 time of the preliminary finals and we are within 1 goal or leading will indicate if we are a true contender.

Actually, it makes a whole world of difference. Right now, I'm tipping that Adelaide & Collingwood will finish 1st & 2nd. That means that our first final will be played in Adelaide. Win that - and we'll start favourites against anyone other than Collingwood - and we host our PF as well. We won't have to travel to Melbourne until the GF.

More like having a realistic view of things and then creating that change when that change is demanded by positive performances. Not make shift performances against B grade sides. Until we beat a Hawthorn, Collingwood, Geelong in Melbourne I don't believe we are a real contender. Until we can beat West Coast, I don't believe this year we can look any further than the preliminary finals.

Your view isn't "realistic" it's unremittingly bleak and negative, failing to take into account any positives at all.

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

They played in the Grand Final. The bookmakers I would suggest had them at shorter odds than the Crows in 1997/1998.

Were we contenders then?

up until the point of my timeline, I'd suggest no.

I don't believe we came a legitimate contender until 3/4 of that preliminary final.

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

Your view isn't "realistic" it's unremittingly bleak and negative, failing to take into account any positives at all.

The rest of your post should have gone out last night.

Really?

I've not said we will finish top 4?

I've not said we are not following the same time line as West Coast and next year we will be better and a contender.

Gee's louse, I guess they are not positives.

 

[Bacon8]

When was the last time we played Geelong in Melbourne?

I know we've been to Geelong most time recently, but not Melbourne.

 

[Vader]

Let me ask you this; back in 2005 and more importantly 2006 you would have said the exact same thing and look how that turned out. It's been proven that the formula that Neil Craig tried to play with, wasn't conducive to finals football. How can you say the same thing with this formula?

That style may well have worked in 2005 & 2006, were it not for injuries & suspensions at the wrong time in the season. Shoulda, coulda, woulda, didn't. That game plan's time had been and long since gone before it's author departed the scene. Time to move on..

I like Brenton Sanderson and expect us to show that same improvement next year but what we are playing now, didn't stand up against Hawthorn and didn't stand up against Collingwood. We have to wait and see how it will go against West Coast but it's only June. Way too early to make that call yet.

The style of footy we're playing now is a proven finals winner, being borrowed almost directly from Geelong - the team who have played in 4 of the last 5 Grand Finals, winning 3 of them. It's also similar at its core to that used by the Brisbane Lions in the first half of the last decade - when they contested 4 Grand Finals in a row, winning 3.

Craig's game plan involved standing off the opposition and waiting for them to make a mistake. This doesn't work overly well when you're playing finals - because the teams you're up against are the hardest & best skilled in the competition. They don't make mistakes like that unless you force them into making them.

Sando's game plan involves winning the clearances & contested ball (giving us first use of the footy). When the opposition have the ball, our players are instructed to tackle & harass them into turning it over. The key difference is that Craig's plan was reactive, while Sando's is proactive. That's not to say that Sando's plan doesn't need a bit of refining between now and September. It has clear & obvious weaknesses, as we all saw on Friday night. It is, however, fundamentally sound at its core.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

The rest of your post should have gone out last night.

Really?

I've not said we will finish top 4?

I've not said we are not following the same time line as West Coast and next year we will be better and a contender.

Gee's louse, I guess they are not positives.

I agree on paper we should be better next year and even the year after again.. But football does not work like that. Hawthorn were always going to peak in 2009-2010... But they won a flag in 2008... They were no where in 09-10... Dont mess with footballing fate

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

That style may well have worked in 2005 & 2006, were it not for injuries & suspensions at the wrong time in the season. Shoulda, coulda, woulda, didn't. That game plan's time had been and long since gone before it's author departed the scene. Time to move on..

Wrong, it didn't work for Rodney Eade at the swans in the mid 1990's, it didn't work for Terry Wallace at the Western Bulldogs in the last 1990's, it didn't work against for Rodney Eade at the Western bulldogs in the mid 2000's and it didn't work for Neil Craig. It has nothing to do with bashing Neil Craig legacy, it's about identifying a football system that has been indented as a failure. That's why you can not say injuries were the resulting factor in 2005 or 2006.

The style of footy we're playing now is a proven finals winner, being borrowed almost directly from Geelong - the team who have played in 4 of the last 5 Grand Finals, winning 3 of them. It's also similar at its core to that used by the Brisbane Lions in the first half of the last decade - when they contested 4 Grand Finals in a row, winning 3.

Like any sport, playing systems and structures are very good on paper but you need to the correct players and personal to execute them.

Craig's game plan involved standing off the opposition and waiting for them to make a mistake. This doesn't work overly well when you're playing finals - because the teams you're up against are the hardest & best skilled in the competition. They don't make mistakes like that unless you force them into making them.

So it wasn't injury and suspension?

It was system and structure?

Sando's game plan involves winning the clearances & contested ball (giving us first use of the footy). When the opposition have the ball, our players are instructed to tackle & harass them into turning it over. The key difference is that Craig's plan was reactive, while Sando's is proactive. That's not to say that Sando's plan doesn't need a bit of refining between now and September. It has clear & obvious weaknesses, as we all saw on Friday night. It is, however, fundamentally sound at its core.

Brenton Sanderson system and structure is very good, a very positive game plan to build on and develop but at this stage, I still believe we are 12 months away from executing it to the same extend as Geelong did (2007-2011) which brings us back to the very first pint, we will not be a contender for 12 months yet.

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

I agree on paper we should be better next year and even the year after again.. But football does not work like that. Hawthorn were always going to peak in 2009-2010... But they won a flag in 2008... They were no where in 09-10... Dont mess with footballing fate

Nothing to do with fate.

It's about applying the constructivist learning theory. You ask the players to build on past experiences by getting better at future experiences and skills they learn.

He will tweek the game plan 5% next year but it will have similarity and when you add one or two new players with the current group we have, that natural progression (Dangerfield, Slaone, Walker, Tippett, Jacobs, Talia, Shaw, et el) will demonstrate, will be that improvement we need.

Look, I'm noit saying don't aim for a GF. Of course do that as you aim from the state and you can reach anywhere but don't be expected a GF or nothing as we are not at that stage yet.

 

[Vader]

Brenton Sanderson system and structure is very good, a very positive game plan to build on and develop but at this stage, I still believe we are 12 months away from executing it to the same extend as Geelong did (2007-2011) which brings us back to the very first pint, we will not be a contender for 12 months yet.

In a season as even as this, I don't think there is any clear distinction between who is a contender and who is not. I agree that we're probably 12 months off hitting our peak, but unlike you I can't see any reason to suggest that we can't win the flag this year (which is not to say that we will).

• Collingwood's shocking run of injuries have brought them back to the pack. However, I still see them as being the competition leaders.
• West Coast's position on top of the ladder is largely a reflection of the easy run they had in the first half of the season, while Adelaide had the 2nd hardest start to the season. They have more than their share of injury problems and a much harder draw in the second half of the season.
• Essendon are in a similar position to West Coast, having had a dream start to the season they now face a much harder run home.
• Hawthorn made a mess of us on the MCG, but have been made to look deadset ordinary by several of the teams in the top-8 (particularly Sydney). They do not have an easy run home and would be no sure thing if they don't finish in the top 4.
• Sydney are our bunnies and I'd definitely back us against them in a home final.
• Geelong are past it and into their terminal decline.
• St Kilda don't have the consistency required to win the flag from the bottom half of the top 8.

Looking at all those other teams, there is nothing there to suggest that Adelaide are not a genuine contender. Those teams with better & more mature lists have been brought back to the pack through injuries. The rest of them are no better than us, as our results would already indicate.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

We have a gun draw and have had a fantastic run so far with unjuries. Two things I can almost guarantee we wont have next year. Make the most of it when you can

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

I guess we have to wait and see.

Either way, should we make the GF - I will be at the MCG (cheers for the lift in the Learjet AFGM) cheering my guts out hoping for a win. I'm just not counting my chickens yet.

 

[amer]

Beaten Collingwood, Hawthorn or West Coast yet?

Didn't think so. Until then, we're not a real contender.

Another one!

You religious by any chance?

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

Another one!

You religious by any chance?

Atheist for what it's worth.

 

[SydCrow]

worst case scenario is WC finish first, we finish second and Collingwood third. We play Collingwood week 1 at home, and if we lose and win the next week, we have WC in Perth in the PF.

Best case scenario is we beat Collingwood and then WC at home in the PF and meet Sydney in the GF

 

[Paladin]

worst case scenario is WC finish first, we finish second and Collingwood third. We play Collingwood week 1 at home, and if we lose and win the next week, we have WC in Perth in the PF.

Best case scenario is we beat Collingwood and then WC at home in the PF and meet Sydney in the GF

Would love to get West Coast at Footy Park in a final this year. West Coast will finish behind us and Collingwood at least if not lower.

 

[Carmo]

Some major chicken counting going on in here!

 

[Freddy Bassett]

Would be happy for anyone, anywhere except West Coast in Perth....