Why do you think it's so impossible for him to go back to the Force? The whole coaching team has changed there.
I doubt he'd go to Japan at this stage in his career. He'd be more likely to go to league.
I think he'll stay in Australian rugby though. While not a 10, he is still a gun player. Surely the reds have space for him with Ioane leaving?
For the same reason the Rebels let him go, the Force know exactly what JOC brings on and off the field. The kid is a disruptive influence. The off field stuff outweighs the on field and that's saying something considering how talented he is.
The Reds head coach will be Richard Graham and a certain Quade Cooper has been incident free for a good year. I think that's enough to rule out the Reds.
The Brumbies have publicly ruled out going after JOC after they were linked to him. Even if they were interested, it really wouldn't be worth it Toomua, Lilo and Mogg occupy the positions he would potentially play, unless he wants to play wing. I don't think there's a chance JOC would be willing to play on the wing at Super rugby level.
The Waratahs are the only viable option. They've already made clear they're going after Beale and if they get him, JOC is sure as hell not following him. Folau's price has also gone up considerably so salary could be a potential sticking point.
JOC could very well end up in league, but a year in the wilderness to burst that ego of his will be good for him, if it comes to that.