Preview Round 18, Richmond vs Hawthorn @ MCG - Fri 31 Jul 7:50pm

[no orange peeler]

We'll win

 

[_RT_]

I am at work guys the full preview will be written tonight and updated
View attachment 156640

tl:dr

 

[_RT_]

Richmond by 13 goals.

 

[Hawk Hawkins]

Before the Freo game I put $50 on us to win by 1-39 points. After the Freo game I put another $100 on us to just simply win. We will be out for redemption. Watch Dusty smash out a BOG.

"Smash out a bog" I love your turn of phrase.

 

[Ralll]

We're in trouble here I think, without Buddy the Hawks changed to using speed against us in their forward line, it worked well last season and Im tipping Clarko will be setting them up the same way again, we have alot of slow backs they will exploit...

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooo me!

 

[Groupie_]

Richmond by 13 goals.

Needs to be over 20

 

[Juke]

Just can't see how Hawthorn will be able to kick a winning score.

 

[Bird Man]

couldnt have picked a worse time to be playing the hawks in there current form... maybe 4 rounds ago would have been better

 

[Truetiger]

Yeh hawks by 250pts lol nah no thanks

 

[Tiges1229]

If we beat the hawks fri the lid is coming off .

 

[Tiges1229]

Just can't see how Hawthorn will be able to kick a winning score.

Hahah , thry have like 500 goal kickers every week .

 

[DontArgue4]

Hahah , thry have like 500 goal kickers every week .

I sincerely hope he was taking the piss (my sarcasm detecter said he was)

 

[SplintWhisky]

updated. You can tell this is the first one i have done of these

 

[WWSD]

Hawthorn 3rd
12 wins - 4 losses (170.1%)
Points For: 1857 (116.1)
Points Against: 1092 (68.25)
Form: WWWWW


Richmond 5th
10 wins - 6 losses (111.5%)
Points For: 1340 (83.75)
Points Against: 1202 (75.12)
Form: WWWWL


Recent Encounters
Round 6 2014: Hawthorn 18.10.118 defeated Richmond 7.10.52 - MCG
Round 19 2013: Richmond 16.11.107 defeated Hawthorn 9.12.66 - MCG
Round 9 2012: Richmond 21.11.137 defeated Hawthorn 10.15.75 - MCG
Round 3 2011: Hawthorn 17.13.115 defeated Richmond 6.16.52 - MCG
Round 8 2010: Hawthorn 13.11.89 defeated Richmond 12.14.86 - MCG


2015 Stats

Hawks - Tigers

399 Disposals 358
227 Kicks 206
172 Handballs 152
105 Marks 92
11 Contested Marks 11
15 Marks Inside 50 13
46 Hit-outs 37
41 Clearances 36
64 Tackles 60
13 Tackles Inside 50 7
59 Inside 50s 50


Likely team changes for Richmond


IN: Ty Vickery, Reece Conca

OUT: Shaun Hampson, Taylor Hunt


Tigers line-up
B: Dylan Grimes, Alex Rance, Jake Batchelor

HB: Bachar Houli, Troy Chaplin, Nick Vlastuin

C: Brandon Ellis, Anthony Miles, Kamdyn McIntosh

HF: Dustin Martin, Ty Vickery, Ben Lennon

F: Chris Newman, Jake Riewoldt, Ben Griffiths

R: Ivan Maric, Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio

INT: Reece Conca, Shaun Grigg, Kane Lambert, Sam Lloyd


Hawthorn

IN: James Frawley, Ben Stratton, Liam Shiels

OUT: Matthew Spangher, Jonathan O'Rourke, Angus Litherland


Hawks line-up
B: Ben Stratton, Brian Lake, Josh Gibson

HB: Grant Birchall, James Frawley, Luke Hodge

C: Bradley Hill, Shaun Burgoyne, Isaac Smith

HF: Luke Breust, Ryan Schoenmakers, Cyril Rioli

F: Jack Gunston, Jarryd Roughead, Paul Puopolo

R: Ben McEvoy, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis

INT: Liam Shiels, David Hale, Matthew Suckling, Billy Hartung


Some Key match-ups:


Alex Rance vs Jarryd Roughead - These two have played on each other before with Rance getting the points twice. Jarryd Roughead is a difficult match-up given his athleticism and agility at ground level but Rance himself is just as good and can match Roughy in that area. Alex Rance is one of a number of Richmond players potentially in line for an All-Australian jumper in 2015.

Dylan Grimes vs Jack Gunston - Third tall defender vs third tall forward. Almost certain they'll go head to head. I rate Grimes highly. An underrated defender who plays his role in this Richmond team beautifully and is having a career best season. Jack Gunston after a slowish start to the season is now hitting his best form kicking 10 goals in the past two weeks. This will be a great dual.

Brandon Ellis vs Isaac Smith - Two gun wingmen likely to match-up on each other at the MCG. Brandon Ellis was one of Richmond's best last week and is in career best form averaging 27 disposals, 7 marks, 3 tackles, 3 inside 50s per game and may even find himself in the 2015 All-Australian team. Isaac Smith is also in career best form averaging 27 disposals, 7 marks, 5 inside 50s, 3 tackles and 1 goal per game.

Trent Cotchin vs Sam Mitchell - The two runner up players in the 2012 Brownlow medal will likely cross paths at some point on Friday night. Trent Cotchin along with Jack Riewoldt and Alex Rance, are leading the race in Richmond's best and fairest award in 2015. Expect to see Cotchin to poll well in this years Brownlow medal voting. If Cotchin plays well against Hawthorn, Richmond are a good chance of beating the Hawks. Both Cotchin and Mitchell are ranked number one at their clubs for center clearances.

Jack Riewoldt vs James Frawley - When Richmond beat Hawthorn in 2012 & 2013, Riewoldt has been the most dangerous forward kicking 9 goals in those two games. Currently sits equal third in the Coleman medal race with 42 goals for the season. Stopping his supply will be one of Hawthorn's main focus if they are to nullify the Tiger full forward from dominating and potentially kicking a bag. If Riewoldt gets good delivery and is on early, he will be very hard to stop for the rest of the game.

Dustin Martin vs Luke Hodge - Two players who love a contest. Dustin Martin is a bull around the ball and has the confidence to back his ability in every time. He's a game changer. When he plays well, so do Richmond. Averaging over 27 disposals and 1 goal per game Martin is influential for the Tigers when he's on. If he fires, Tigers will win.

Brett Deledio vs Jordan Lewis - How time flies by. It felt like yesterday when Deledio and Lewis were both drafted back in the 2004 national draft. Brett Deledio after a slow start to the season has slowly found his best form again and was in the best in Richmond's wins against Fremantle earlier in the year. One of Richmond's most skilled dual-sided players, Deledio is a difficult match-up for the opposition as he can push forward and he's also quite good overhead taking marks and is reliable in front of goal.


Hawthorn can't afford to give the Tigers a sniff early. First quarter will tell us a lot for both sides as to who's switched on and who's not. Richmond will fancy their chances against another top four team. Ivan Maric has dominated the Hawthorn rucks over the past two years in Richmond's recent wins against the Hawks. If he plays well on Friday night and gives the Tigers midfield first use out of the middle, then Richmond could be headed for their 11th win of the season. With a top 2 spot up for grabs for Hawthorn and a top four spot still potentially within reach for Richmond if they win, expect to see both sides to play at their best in front of a big crowd. Hawthorn's bottom six players are better/more experienced then Richmond's bottom six at this stage and that could prove to be the difference.


Prediction: Hawthorn by 14 points

 

[Tigez 4 Life]

Hawthorn can't afford to give the Tigers a sniff early. First quarter will tell us a lot for both sides as to who's switched on and who's not. Richmond will fancy their chances against another top four team. Ivan Maric has dominated the Hawthorn rucks over the past two years in Richmond's recent wins against the Hawks. If he plays well on Friday night and gives the Tigers midfield first use out of the middle, then Richmond could be headed for their 11th win of the season. With a top 2 spot up for grabs for Hawthorn and a top four spot still potentially within reach for Richmond if they win, expect to see both sides to play at their best in front of a big crowd. Hawthorn's bottom six players are better/more experienced then Richmond's bottom six at this stage and that could prove to be the difference.


Prediction: Hawthorn by 14 points

Pretty good read as a whole, i think if we can present a challenge and keep it tight i'll be pretty happy.

 

[rideclutch]

On paper, we just don't win the game. Would have to restrict Hawks to less than 80 and I just don't see that happening. Even blitzing them early won't necessarily work, because 5-6 goals over 3 qtrs is nothing for them.

As others have said, our only chance is to kick a score. Either Jack or Ty is gonna have to have a blinder, combined with Lids/Dusty/Cotch all with goals. Not asking much then, kick one of our biggest scores of the year against the best side in the comp

 

[GoTigers2015]

Hawks have had a weakness in the past against key forwards, if we can get clean ball to our forwards we can exploit this. That's a big if as the Hawks apply a very effective zone (press) and will be hard to create openings.

For me one change this week.

Out: Hampson (inj)
In : Vickery

 

[GoTigers2015]

****en joke
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-07-27/gibson-walking-a-tightrope

 

[Tiger71]

Richmond vs Hawthorn
Friday 31st July
@Home of Football


It could have been the match of the round, nay the season. Richmond v Hawthorn. The passion, the sweat, the tears. For one group, winning meant more than just the four points, it would have been validation. For the others, a win would have given them the greatest launching pad to making it into the history books as the greatest AFL team of all time. But it was not to be. Wayward kicking meant that the dream died a painful death. The game should have made a promoter giggle with girlish glee. Gil would have been counting dollars. Two of the biggest clubs in the league fighting it out. One for respect, the other for greatness.

For Richmond the question remains, what are we made of? When Mundy, who had visions of the Geelong game, snatched victory it broke the Tigers. Houli felt the weight of the world fall onto his shoulders. Riewoldt threw his arms in the air in an emotional display of frustration and exasperation. The players knew that the dream became just a little harder, just a little further from reach. The flickering light has all but been extinguished.

Or has it?

This isn't the same Richmond that has been seen through the years. This one has the heart and fight of a Tiger. Lead by a new man, a new animal. Trent Cotchin a man who was previously seen as a gentlemen on and off the field has turned. He has a fight and aggression. The rest of streak are responding. Jack Riewoldt, a man who has spent more time displaying undue emotion has become a professional. Shane "Titch" Edwards, a small no one a few years ago, now? He is a vital cog to the side. But it also the lesser lights who are beginning to snarl and bare their teeth. Shaun Hampson a man who was written off as being not physical enough, not quick enough and not clean enough. He is no mere timid tiger. In the last few rounds we have seen him attack the games with a level of ferociousness and vigor that those who were writing him off are now writing his praises. This Friday night at the Colosseum of football, we get another chance to relight the candle, another chance to attone.

The opponent? The all conquering, ultra-professional Hawks.

The previous six weeks have been kind to them. Favour fortunes the brave and there has been few braver clubs. At the bye questions were asked. Could they do it again? Did they have the heart or desire? Within six weeks they went from a club that looked to be in a fight for a top four position to an unstoppable juggernaut dismantling and embarrassing all those in their way. Last week, hot off the back of methodical murder of the Swans, Hawthorn decided to massacre a weak and feeble Carlton. It was merciless and brutal. But as a professional kettle of Hawks they did what needed to be done. The wiped the mess away and buried the body and began to look for their next major victim to hang on the mantle.

This Friday they may have found it.

The Tigers are out looking for redemption, to attone for the sins of the past and to keep, what felt impossible, alive. The Hawks are looking for another kill to intimidate all onlookers. One club looking to solidify a position in the Top Four, another fighting to get there. I don't know about you, but I am salivating at the thought of this one.


The Match

This is a hard game to predict. The Tigers through Damien Hardwick have sought to emulate the Hawthorn game style with a few key tweaks. I think a main area that is going to determine the game is going to be the headspace of the players. Over the last few weeks Hawthorn has been professionally dismantling their opponent and making them look second rate. Richmond on the other hand has been just doing enough to win, and last week we saw how that didn't work out. But to look at the players after that game. All I can do is hope that they have the maturity to recover and fight back. A win here and Top Four is not a pipe dream.

The Forwards
Richmond's forward line had been working. It is generating shots on goal, however not converting them. We have seen it throughout this season. When we miss shots we will lose with a terrible scoreline. Hopefully this week they have practised hard on accuracy. The Griffiths/Vickery/Hampson issue will be an interesting one to work out and one that I will talk about later.

Hawthorn on the other hand has been flying. Jack Gunston has had a great few weeks and is really starting to blossom. Even though he is down on weight and just got half his face cut out Jarryd Roughhead isn't hanging around to ease back into the game. Rioli? he is finally starting to show that he is able to impact games longer and not just be a "highlights" player.

Over the last few weeks I would have to give the edge to Hawthorn, who since the bye have not kicked less than 15 goals.

Mids
This is where the Tigers have really improved for mine. The midfield group has begun to gel together and is starting to look formidable. Ellis is starting to get back into his 2014 form with his great run and carry. Martin is getting more impactful touches, Griggs in great form, and Cotchin. He has turned me around. I wanted to see fight and I am beginning to see it. It is what I always wanted to see.

Hawthorn however are close to brilliant in terms of roundness. They have tough extractors and great run and dash. Hodge, Lewis and Mitchell are to be envied as is the dash and clean disposal of Smith and Breust. There is really not much I can say about their midfield that has yet to be said. Just awesome

Although I have given a ringing endorsement to the Hawks, I do this feel this one is close. Our midfield group is just behind Hawthorns. But not by much.

Backs
This is where Richmond has clawed a lot of respect from the competition. Our back six, a group that was once the laughing stock of the AFL are now one of the most cohesive. Rance...what can I say? In sentence that would make McAvaney blush, Rance "is a handsome man who makes a lot of handsome plays". Batchelor and Grimes, two players seemingly playing for their careers have never looked so settled down back. Houli and Chaplin may have their doubters but I have always loved their contribution to structures, and in Houli's case his attacking run.

Hawthorn on the other hand created a game on a great solid defence and unsociable football. Gibson is one that comes to mind. Like Rance he likes to work off his opponents. One thing i would say that he would have over Rance is that I think Gibson's in air work is better. He looks a little better when jumping for a pack mark. Add to that the recruits of Frawley and Lake and their defence looks like it is able to take on anyone.

For this one I have to give it to the Tigers. The defense has only really looked bad when it has been let down by the midfield.

Possible Line Ups
HAWTHORN
B James Frawley, Brian Lake, Sam Mitchell
HB Grant Birchall, Josh Gibson, Ben Stratton
C Luke Hodge, Shaun Burgoyne, Isaac Smith
HF Cyril Rioli, David Hale, Ryan Schoenmakers
F Jack Gunston, Jarryd Roughead, Luke Breust
FOL Ben McEvoy, Paul Puopolo, Jordan Lewis
I/C Matthew Suckling, Liam Shiels, Bradley Hill

RICHMOND
B Dylan Grimes, Jake Batchelor, Troy Chaplin
HB Nick Vlastuin, Alex Rance, Bachar Houli
C Brandon Ellis, Brett Deledio, Kamdyn McIntosh
HF Ben Lennon, Tyrone Vickery, Dustin Martin
F Ben Griffiths, Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin
FOL Ivan Maric, Shaun Grigg, Kane Lambert
I/C Chris Newman, Anthony Miles, Taylor Hunt, Steven Morris

What I would like to see*

RICHMOND
B Dylan Grimes, Jake Batchelor, Troy Chaplin
HB Nick Vlastuin, Alex Rance, Bachar Houli
C Brandon Ellis, Brett Deledio, Ben Griffiths
HF Ben Lennon, Shaun Hampson, Dustin Martin
F Tyrone Vickery, Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin
FOL Ivan Maric, Shaun Grigg, Kane Lambert
I/C Kamdyn McIntosh, Anthony Miles, Taylor Hunt, Steven Morris

This here is what I would purely like to see. My reasoning is that Steven Morris blankets Rioli. Apart from 2014 when the entire team wasn't playing well Rioli hasn't really impacted the game and I don't think Vlastuin, Houli or Hunt could keep him out of the game like Morris can. We don't need touches from Morris we just don't need Rioli to get them. Furthermore I think Griffiths could do a Richo and play a good game on the wing. He has the height and athleticism to run the game out and also allows a three tall forward line without sacrificing a ruckman. What I also like is that he would have the ability to run down back and stand in front of their firing forward line. We need him to drop back and stand in front of Rough or Gunston. Not going to happen but just something I hope to happen.

Main Match ups

V

Frawley has always had the upper hand on Jack. I have no idea what it is but Frawley has always been able to limits Jack influence. For us to win this duel Jack needs to take Frawley on a tour of the G'.

V

Look at that beauty on the right. This match up really is Beauty and the Beast, however it could prove pivotal. With Gunston playing well Roughead may decide to take Rance away from the contest to sacrifice his own game to limit Rance's influence. Richmond need to be wise to this and allow him to go back and cover Gunston if needed

V

This is the one that could decide the match if Hawthorn is smart. Sydney failed to do it and it cost them. You need to isolate Chaplin one out on a bigger body. Chaplin will either give the free away or he will be out marked. Chaplin can't take the bigger gorilla forwards but with Gunton being so mobile and with Roughead as the real threat that Rance will have to take, Richmond may just have to bite the bullet

V

On the other hand this could be a match up we would be after. Lake is a great pack mark and his ability to out muscle an opponent is next to none. Coupled with his elite read of the flight he is a great defender. However Vickery is not the big pack mark type. He plays better as a leading to the ball forward. If we can get this match up Vickery may have a decent game with a solid contribution.


What we need to do

We have to play smart football. We need to constrict their run and carry and give ourselves time to have a good defence. We need to play like we did against Fremantle over in Perth. Slow the game down and all marginal kicks need to put close to the boundary line to be punched over allowing for a reset. It also goes without saying that the forwards and midfield need to hit the scoreboard with goals. Inaccuracy against the Hawks will cost us and it will cost us bad. Furthermore Deledio needs to force his running back player to defend him. Personally if Brett plays from the goal square against a Stratton or Birchall, I would consider that a win.

Prediction

This is where I put my balls on the line. Win this game and Hawthorn would need nothing short of a terror attack to miss out on Top Four. The Tigers on the other hand are hurting from a bad loss, one that was taken from them. To see the players hurt the way they did makes me feel that they will come out snarling and full of vigor. They should also take comfort in the knowledge that apart from last year (during our god aweful form) we have been competitive against the Hawks and have lined up well against them. This is all going to boil down to who wants it more. To be honest I hope it is us, but nonetheless I will be watching

Richmond by 39 points

Well worth the wait mate, great review.

I like most felt our top 4 chance was dead Saturday night simply due to penciling the hawks game as a loss. If we can win this, it restores our chance to actually make the Top 4. If any side needed a doubble chance in a final its us. If we can win this via, grit, hart, and skill, it will go a long way in confirming to the playing group that they are one of the better sides in the competition now, win this and I can easily see us winning our remaining games, yes, even the game against Norf.

lose this by a bad margin however, get bullied and smashed and it could very well mean we struggle just to get into the eight, the damage could be that great.

We just need to press the hawks, force them to kick while under pressure. We need to strangle them and get under there skin. We have the ability to do it but in saying that we need to be clean with the ball and actually score goals instead of points. People bag our forward structure but we are generating shots on goal, we are just missing.

If we can convert our chances and force rough and gunsten wide, we are a chance.

 

[Frustrated Tiger]

No chance......happy to be proven wrong though.

 

[RICHOLEGEND12]

Agree with others don't think we have the scoring power to take this one out. Frawley usually nullifies Jack. Griff and Vickery really have to stand up and we're going to need the mids to kick goals as well. Who do you think they'll put on Dusty if he goes forward?

 

[WATiger86]

5 - 6 goal loss coming up IMO... Think the bookies have the line spot on

 

[Tiger71]

We're in trouble here I think, without Buddy the Hawks changed to using speed against us in their forward line, it worked well last season and Im tipping Clarko will be setting them up the same way again, we have alot of slow backs they will exploit...

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooo me!

Remember last time we played them in round 6 we did not have ivan, Rance, Lids, Tyrone or Ellis playing.

If we can match there aggression, be first to the ball and beat them at stoppages, we can win this. We just need to be clean with the ball, slow the game down and hit targets, basically throw there game plan back at them.

 

[leekok]

Recent Encounters
Round 6 2014: Hawthorn 18.10.118 defeated Richmond 7.10.52 - MCG
Round 19 2013: Richmond 16.11.107 defeated Hawthorn 9.12.66 - MCG
Round 9 2012: Richmond 21.11.137 defeated Richmond 10.15.75 - MCG
Round 3 2011: Hawthorn 17.13.115 defeated Richmond 6.16.52 - MCG
Round 8 2010: Hawthorn 13.11.89 defeated Richmond 12.14.86 - MCG

Hmmm, clever move that, helps you forget we smashed you twice before last years abberation. We will be at our peak next week and it scares you.
hahahahahaha.

 

[Koze]

It was only three weeks ago when Collingwood almost beat this mob. I think we're a chance.