Round 5, 2013
Carlton vs Adelaide Crows
Saturday 27th April, 4:40pm
The MCG
Carlton vs Adelaide Crows
Saturday 27th April, 4:40pm
The MCG
Head to Head
Played 31 games
Won 16
Lost 15
Past 5 Encounters
2012 - CAR vs ADE (Etihad) - ADE 69 Points
2011 - CAR vs ADE (Etihad) - CAR 6 Points
2010 - ADE vs CAR (AAMI) - CAR 48 Points
2009 - CAR vs ADE (Etihad) - ADE 72 Points
2009 - ADE vs CAR (AAMI) - ADE 44 Points
Last Game
CARL 8.7.55
ADE 19.10.124
The last time the Blues and the Crows played it was a bruising affair with an extremely convincing win to the Crows. The crows dominated stoppages winning the clearances 47 to 41 and controlled the game with an intensity and physicality the Blues just couldn't match. On the day there were too few contributors for the Blues and with the likes of Carrazzo missing and Murphy being subbed out of the game with a shoulder injury in the second the crows midfield ran rampant. In the end the crows piled on the goals to win by 69 points in a game they controlled from quarter time onwards finishing with 110 marks to Carlton's 54. As a reflection of the superiority of the crows midfield Dangerfield, Thompson and Sloane all received Brownlow points.
Preview
Adelaide had a fantastic 2012 season under Brenton Sanderson, where they moved from 14th in 2011 to finish 2nd at the end of the home and away season with 17 wins and 5 losses, only edged out by Hawthorn as the minor premiers on percentage. The crows under Sanderson played an exciting contested and fast paced brand of football with the likes of Thompson and Dangerfield dominating the midfield stoppages and the lethal forward combination in Walker and Tippett proving tough to keep quiet up forward. The crows went deep into September missing out on the grand final by less than a kick late in the final term of the Preliminary final against the Hawks.
So far in 2013 the crows have struggled to show the type of play and form that saw them rise so promptly in 2012 with losses to Essendon and Port Adelaide after going in as favourites. They have one win on the board against Brisbane away however Sanderson has been unhappy with his teams attack on the ball and hardness which was such a feature of their 2012 campaign.
Carlton having had a difficult start to the season so far and is sitting in a precarious position as they adapt to the new style of game plan under Malthouse. The Blues have come very close in every game so far however when they have had the ascendency and run of play they have let their opposition back in and conceded quick goals which have cost them games. Another loss to WCE or ADE would most likely kiss their finals aspirations good bye as only 4 teams in VFL/AFL history have made the finals after a 0-4 start to the season.
This match looms as a pivotal game for both clubs lagging behind in the race to the 8 as both consider themselves genuine finals contenders.
For the Blues 15 players are likely to remain from last year's encounter against the Crows with the likes of Duigan, Betts, Kreuzer, Thornton, Bower and Ellard to be those who will not feature this year. Carlton will sorely miss Waite, Betts, Kreuzer from their best lineup while the Crows only have skipper van Berlo missing from their best 22.
Team selection this week will be critical given Adelaide play with 3 tall forwards in Henderson, Jenkins and Walker which will mean the Carlton team will need 3 genuine talls in their back half. The Adelaide team utilises a high number of running players through the forward and backline which is a feature of their play. Thankfully Carlton's midfield depth bats quite deep so this game is likely to be won and lost in the midfield. Last year Dangerfield, Thompson and Sloane dominated however this year we can safely expect Carrazzo to minimise the impact of at least one of those 3 leaving the other 2 to go head to head with the likes of Judd, Murphy or Gibbs.
Up forward Carlton has struggled for goals from their key position forwards with only 7 of the 44 goals so far this year coming from tall's (4 Rowe, 2 Kreuzer, 2 Hampson, 1 Henderson). The Crows back 6 is a relatively inexperienced back 6 with the exception of Rutten and Reilly so hopefully the Blues tall's can get on top and reduce the reliance on our midfielders and smalls to kick goals. That said, Carlton should play with 3 tall's in the forward line at all times to stretch the Crows backs 6 as after Rutten and Talia they fall away for defensive tall's.
Likely Teams
Carlton will have a 7 day turn around along with a long trip back from the west. The majority of the team should stay the same with Mick stating his preference for leaving the team unchanged where possible unless it is for match ups. For me this week 2 changes should be made based on matchups (this is before the WCE game) which should be the replacement of Curnow and Joseph for Bell and Laidler.
Last year the crows physically battered us and the larger body of Bell would be best utilised in the midfield throwing his weight around, crashing into packs and filling the hole that Kreuzer has left in blocking for his team mates. The crows currently only have the 1 small forward in Petrenko which I believe Tuohy should be able to shut down leaving Joseph without a match up. The introduction of Laidler provides us with flexibility at both ends of the ground through himself or the likes of Walker/White moving forward.
FB: Tuohy, Jamison, White
HB: Walker, Henderson, Scotland
C: Lucas, Carrazzo, Simpson
HF: Gibbs, Rowe, Robinson
FF: Garlett, Hampson, Yarran
FOL: Warnock, Murphy, Judd
INT: McLean, Laidler, Bell
SUB: Armfield
Adelaide has a very healthy list at the moment with only their skipper missing through injury. They have a number of players in Smith, Callinan, Johncock, Vince, Lyons and McKernan who will all need to play good football in the SANFL this week to earn a recall. Bernie Vince is the most notable absentee and will need a big game to earn his spot back with the likes of Jaensch, Lynch, Kerridge and Laird those in the crosshairs and likely to make way for any recalls to the team.
Lineup for Round 4
FB: Brown, Rutten, Ottens
HB: Mackay, Talia, Reilly
C: Sloane, Thompson, Kerridge
HF: Wright, Jenkins, Douglas
FF: Petrenko, Walker, Henderson
FOL: Jacobs, Dangerfield, Crouch
INT: Laird, Jaensch, Porplyzia, Lynch
Likely ins and outs.... Lynch & Laird for Vince & Smith.
Key Matchups
Midfield vs Midfield
This is where the game will be won and lost. Carlton will have Judd, Murphy, Carrazzo, Gibbs, Simpson, McLean, Robinson and Scotland all rotating through the middle which is a much larger and experienced group than the crows with Thompson, Dangerfield, Sloane, Crouch, Wright and Mackay. So far this season Judd & Robinson have done well together in the centre clearances and should be used more often in this game. Robinson has the physicality to match it with the crows on ball brigade and add some hardness at the stoppages. That said, Dangerfield and Thompson are two of the competitions best and if they win their match ups it is likely the Crows will win the game. The blues will need to put significant effort into curtailing their influence and if successful should most likely win the clearances and stop the Crows feeding it out to their runners. The crows game plan is based on running and carrying in waves and if the Carlton team can deny them first use of the ball and crowd their space and force more stoppages, the crows should struggle to adjust in the midfield battle.
Jamison vs Walker
During the preseason Walker kicked 5 goals against the blues to win the game for his side. Jamison had a very quiet night conceding goals to Walker and other forwards. Since this time Jamison has started to look at his best again whilst Walker has struggled albeit due to poor service. Jamison should win the tussles when closer to the goals however Walker is quite content to lead up the ground and is more likely to win the contents against Jamison then. Although Walker can kick it a mile if most of his positions are up the ground outside 50 its likely to mean the Blues midfield and defense are on top, thus forcing the less skilled likes of Henderson and Jenkins to mark and goal inside 50.
Petrenko vs Tuohy
Petrenko was quite damaging last time we played and has good vision within the forward half of the ground. He often disposes of the ball intelligently in the forward half and works quite well as a bail out forward. Tuohy had a much better game against the cats last week and will need to stay very close to Petrenko exerting constant physical pressure and touch to keep him under wraps. If he can do this a lot of the creativity up forward for the crows will be quashed.
Walker vs Ottens
My hope is that they play Walker as a lead up forward and expose Andy Ottens inability to defend against leading players. Walker has been one of our best so far this year and should have the confidence to out-mark, out-run and out-jump Ottens and any other player they throw at him. If we can make Walker our main forward target, with the 2 KPP's leaving space for Walker to run into we should be able to exploit a key matchup in our favour. That said, Malthouse will just probably play him back again to annoy us all!
My tip... Carlton by 25 points with Juddy polling 3 votes!
