Since 1995 We have had 11 premiers

[bomberswarm2]

I disagree.
1. Carlton were one game from being top 4 with 17-18 wins from memory, and they've fallen away a little. But they have more than enough superstars to win a flag.
2. Richmond are only starting to come good, again they have more than enough stars to head up a GF in the next few years.
3. Melbourne made some horrible decisions, had they got the trades and decisions right, they may not be in the mess they are in.
4. Essendon should make a huge shot at a GF in the next few years.
4. North Melbourne have a pretty good list. I'd expect them to be contenders in the next few years.
5. Sides like Geelong and Hawthorn and Collingwood have earnt their spots through years of hard work and team rebuilding.

You've also included a very small sample size of a mere 4 years. Extend it over 10-15 years and you might get a better reflection of the state of the AFL.

Well the sample space is only so small. When it takes 9 years for every club to play in the Prelim, and we have 5 years for 9 clubs to do it.

 

[Winter]

The OP's post is proof the salary cap works, it doesn't mean the fixture is fair.

 

[doppleganger]

I'm not quoting the OP, Doppelganger, I'm quoting you.

You're talking about fairness and equity and probably can't give a clear definition of exactly what that is. The vast majority of people here who go on about this say either full home and away, or just cycle through the roster once...as it stands that means a 17 or 34 game season...

If you're talking conferences, though, then it's the Yanks who have the models. You could play everyone else a lot, hence the baseball and basketball comparisons. You'd put a group together of full home and away matches, and then you match up against a certain number of opponents. In the NFL, the closest scenario to us being a football code, you play 13 other teams in the 17 week season, and you won't see the other 19 at all...

Skip to the end. Go back and find the Four Conference Model thread from about ten months ago, for the best possible model of a conference system. Then tell me how fair and equitable it is...at least in the current scenario, you won't find a premier that hasn't deserved their flag. You'd actually be hard pressed to find a team who has really benefitted from the draw in terms of even making the eight, truth be told. It just makes a great conspiracy theory story, which not only doesn't statistically stand up, but is also easly explained by the 100 page book the AFL releases every year detailing what the CLUBS asked for in this draw, and how much of it the AFL was able to accomodate...

??
Again I don't get what you are trying to say.
The draft and salary cap are the measures in place to ensure the AFL system isn't like the EPL in terms of clubs can just buy whomever they want.

The fixture is compromised, and it has a big impact on the ladder.
Hawthorn this year dbl up against 5 teams who made the finals last year.
Essendon only dbl up against 2 teams who made finals
Richmond only dbl up against 1 team who made finals
Gold Coast don't play any finals teams twice
North dbl up against 4 teams who made finals last year

The AFL fixture handicaps teams, it is ridiculous and is compromising the integrity of the game.

Conferences offer a mechanism to ensure that the teams in your conference/division all face the same draw....ie it is equitable...and then the only thing that matters is who has the best team

 

[Final Siren]

??
Again I don't get what you are trying to say.
The draft and salary cap are the measures in place to ensure the AFL system isn't like the EPL in terms of clubs can just buy whomever they want.

The fixture is compromised, and it has a big impact on the ladder.
Hawthorn this year dbl up against 5 teams who made the finals last year.
Essendon only dbl up against 2 teams who made finals
Richmond only dbl up against 1 team who made finals
Gold Coast don't play any finals teams twice
North dbl up against 4 teams who made finals last year

The AFL fixture handicaps teams, it is ridiculous and is compromising the integrity of the game.

Conferences offer a mechanism to ensure that the teams in your conference/division all face the same draw....ie it is equitable...and then the only thing that matters is who has the best team

It would be MORE equitable, but it still wouldn't be equitable. There will be 6-day breaks vs 8-day breaks, and sometimes a team will be weakened with a few stars missing and other times not. Plus we're no longer in a world where everyone plays their home game at their home ground, so sometimes "away" might mean a trip to Tasmania or Darwin or wherever, whereas other teams get to play them in Melbourne.

No doubt the current fixture is uneven, but conferences won't be perfectly even, either.

 

[RobbieGray17]

??
Again I don't get what you are trying to say.
The draft and salary cap are the measures in place to ensure the AFL system isn't like the EPL in terms of clubs can just buy whomever they want.

The fixture is compromised, and it has a big impact on the ladder.
Hawthorn this year dbl up against 5 teams who made the finals last year.
Essendon only dbl up against 2 teams who made finals
Richmond only dbl up against 1 team who made finals
Gold Coast don't play any finals teams twice
North dbl up against 4 teams who made finals last year

The AFL fixture handicaps teams, it is ridiculous and is compromising the integrity of the game.

Conferences offer a mechanism to ensure that the teams in your conference/division all face the same draw....ie it is equitable...and then the only thing that matters is who has the best team

Last year doesn't guarantee the same results this year. Games against the Crows, West Coast and Port adelaide aren't the same.

 

[RobbieGray17]

So excluding GWS and GCS, every team has featured in a Prelim final.

So now, the only teams not to feature in a Grand Final are

Richmond
Bulldgods

Proof that the system works, and is fair.

 

[Gibbke]

Between 2000 and 2008, every team made the Preliminary Finals at least once.

4: Brisbane, Port Adelaide
3: Adelaide, Collingwood, Geelong, St. Kilda, Sydney
2: Essendon, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, West Coast
1: Carlton, Fremantle, Melbourne, Richmond, Western Bulldogs

The last 4 years from 2009-2012 though:

4: Collingwood
3: Geelong
2: St. Kilda, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs
1: Adelaide, Sydney, West Coast
0: Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond

8 of the 16 clubs have played in a Preliminary Final, compared to 11 from 2000 to 2003.
Is the game becoming less fair? Seeing as only 2 teams over 9 years who made 4 Prelimenary Finals, and over 4 years there is one who made 4 and one who made 3 already, it would seem it is becoming a bigger gap between the good and bad teams.

All of the teams on the bottom line either made the eight last year, or were disqualified from it, or did exactly what they had to do in Round 23 to make it providing Carlton lost...or they were named Melbourne...

 

[RobbieGray17]

All of the teams on the bottom line either made the eight last year, or were disqualified from it, or did exactly what they had to do in Round 23 to make it providing Carlton lost...or they were named Melbourne...

Also, the 4 year period is not worth using as an argument, because clubs that get that premiership window, usually sit high for 3-5 years. The next cycle is the one we need to look at, from 2013-2018

and we need to be mindful of incompetence within clubs, like Melbourne re drafting.

 

[Final Siren]

So excluding GWS and GCS, every team has featured in a Prelim final.

So now, the only teams not to feature in a Grand Final are

Richmond
Bulldgods

Proof that the system works, and is fair.

That makes no logical sense. If we draw names out of a hat at the end of each season to decide the premiership, that will give you a nice spread of teams, but prove nothing about how "fair" the system is, unless you think "fair" means "give everyone a premiership no matter how good they are."

 

[HawkBurger]

??
Again I don't get what you are trying to say.
The draft and salary cap are the measures in place to ensure the AFL system isn't like the EPL in terms of clubs can just buy whomever they want.

The fixture is compromised, and it has a big impact on the ladder.
Hawthorn this year dbl up against 5 teams who made the finals last year.
Essendon only dbl up against 2 teams who made finals
Richmond only dbl up against 1 team who made finals
Gold Coast don't play any finals teams twice
North dbl up against 4 teams who made finals last year

The AFL fixture handicaps teams, it is ridiculous and is compromising the integrity of the game.

Conferences offer a mechanism to ensure that the teams in your conference/division all face the same draw....ie it is equitable...and then the only thing that matters is who has the best team

I don't really agree with the bit about the fixture and teams doubling up against finalists. Hawthorn supposedly had the toughest draw last year in terms of opposition, because it played so many games against the previous year's finalists. But those finalists weren't the ones of 2013.

Similar story this year - we have a supposedly hard draw in terms of opposition. But the teams that make up the eight this year are going to be different from those of last year.

Teams that get Gold Coast and GWS twice this year probably won't be particularly grateful. It was already mooted that the Swans had a fairly easy draw, but they lost to GWS in round 1.

 

[RobbieGray17]

That makes no logical sense. If we draw names out of a hat at the end of each season to decide the premiership, that will give you a nice spread of teams, but prove nothing about how "fair" the system is, unless you think "fair" means "give everyone a premiership no matter how good they are."

What I'm saying is, that the system of draft picks works for our game. In the cases it hasn't, the club is to blame for poor selection, among other reasons. There is a lot of power in the first 5 draft picks, even more so today, than 10 years ago, but equally important in winning a premiership, is the players in the 2,3,4,5th rounds.

If you look at the best Elite players in the competition today, the majority are 1st round picks. The system ensures, that the best players go to the weakest club of the time, rather than the best club.

Collingwood/Hawthorn/Bulldogs/St Kilda/Fremantle all go to the late finals series through this system.

 

[gbatman]

the system works. free agency will work against it.

 

[frenchfri12]

Game's ****ed. Premiers should be banned from playing the next season.

 

[RUNVS]

1995 really is not a good comparison as the game wasn't particularly professional back then. I would say the mid 2000's is when it became professional, at least in terms of behind the scenes.

 

[Tas]

It probably would have been a bit more even had the AFL got rid of father son and the crap load of priority picks.

 

[manboob]

1995 really is not a good comparison as the game wasn't particularly professional back then. I would say the mid 2000's is when it became professional, at least in terms of behind the scenes.

Not to mention that flag was won on the back of cap cheating.

 

[RUNVS]

Not to mention that flag was won on the back of cap cheating.

That too. I mean even in the early 2000's players went out for beers after a game instead of getting in an ice bath.

 

[John Dough]

2007 was the beginning of the modern era, and the year that the AFL became a fully professional league.

Up until the end of 2006 the AFL was only semi professional.

Since the league became fully professional, the 9 premierships have been shared between 4 clubs, and the 18 grand final spots have been shared between 8 clubs.

So much for equalisation

 

[catstorm]

2007 was the beginning of the modern era, and the year that the AFL became a fully professional league.

Up until the end of 2006 the AFL was only semi professional.

Since the league became fully professional, the 9 premierships have been shared between 4 clubs, and the 18 grand final spots have been shared between 8 clubs.

So much for equalisation

Well let's discount GC and GWS for now, what your saying is over a 9 year period 07-15 fully half the clubs in the AFL made a GF and a another 3 made it to prelims.

That's 11 of 16 legitimate clubs in massive contention, I can't see what else you want

Let's look at the last 5 that haven't gotten there.

Essendon- Derped themselves, probably would have contended hard if not for the drugs scandal.

Carlton- Complete basket case of a club, even so they have made it to 2 Semis.

Melbourne- Ditto but seem to be turning it around

Brisbane- horrible horrible player management under Voss set this club back, they still haven't recovered.

Richmond- Not sure it just hasn't come together for them at the pointy end of the year, but they have finished 5th in 2 of the last 3 years.

What I'm trying to say is all the equalization in the world won't help clubs determined to sabotage themselves.

 

[Underdog]

2007 was the beginning of the modern era, and the year that the AFL became a fully professional league.

Up until the end of 2006 the AFL was only semi professional.

What's your justification for the above statements?

 

[catstorm]

What's your justification for the above statements?

It fits the narrative better, if he took it back even 4 more years it would add 3 more premiers to the list.

It's cherry picking stats to fit a narrative such as from 03-10 we had 7 unique premiers in only 8 years proving equalization works.

The funny thing is you can find stretches like the current one throughout the history of the game from 96-03 we only had 4 unique premiers.

This one is good from 1981 to 1995 we only had 5 teams win flags over a 15 year period.

You can't have a new premier every year great teams win multiple flags and hang around for awhile, it's the way it is in all sports.

 

[RUNVS]

It fits the narrative better, if he took it back even 4 more years it would add 3 more premiers to the list.

It's cherry picking stats to fit a narrative such as from 03-10 we had 7 unique premiers in only 8 years proving equalization works.

The funny thing is you can find stretches like the current one throughout the history of the game from 96-03 we only had 4 unique premiers.

This one is good from 1981 to 1995 we only had 5 teams win flags over a 15 year period.

You can't have a new premier every year great teams win multiple flags and hang around for awhile, it's the way it is in all sports.

10 years is a good sample size though and in those 10 years we have had 5 premiers.

 

[The_Reaper]

10 years is a good sample size though and in those 10 years we have had 5 premiers.

Less than the NRL who don't have a draft?

 

[Schauermann]

Have to agree that is working pretty good. German soccer main league had like 6 Premiers since 1995 (and two of those 6 have won 12 and 5 times)

 

[Halftimehero]

Every club has its chance to be successful if they are good enough, some do it a lot better than others.