Sub vest gone and the new Interchange Cap.

[Here2tellyouwhy]

To add to the mess caused by the Essendon bans and top up players this year, we have no one player starting or finishing in a bloody vest.
Plus the biggest change to this years SC, a 25% reduction in interchanges.

Not a lot has been mentioned about the influence the interchange cap will have to this years scores, contested players, outside players, the gut runners, resting forwards, ruckman, rookies...

Personally I think it's hard to read. Players will tire. A 25% reduction must have some influence.
What will coaches do? 25% less rotations so I'll just given them all a longer rest?

The massive possesion numbers racked up by midfielders has a lot to do with their ability to go in short bursts, put in that massive gut run then run stright to the bench.
Players will rest in the forward lines so alot of people on here are looking at the guys who can kick a goal or two. (Grey, Swan, Rocky, Beams etc)
I can see the endurance freaks who can stay out there longer getting more of the footy but will it effect their scores all that much? (Gaff might not stop running and start getting 40 touches)

I also think there will be less ball ups and more long kicks down the line. This gives the AFL the desired result of removing the rolling scrum. (Freo and Sydney might suffer)
This also suits the teams that zone instead of running a man on man set up. Players who take intercept marks will be like seagulls on a chip. (McGovern, Wood, Gibson)

Do contested ball numbers go up or down? More ball ups or less?
More tap outs for Goldy or will a reduction in ball ups kill his scoring potential?
Will rucks like NicNat and Martin who are like large cats at ground level have a scoring advantage over the big slow tap ruckman?

Rookies and players who have had sub effected careers will go nuts, just need to pick the right ones.
Players who are priced cheap but have been in the system for a few years and have a decent tank should score well. (Kerridge, Anderson)

I've looked at players scores and TOG numbers from 2015 and the Premo scorers aren't always the best performers when it comes to PPM (points per minute)
CD inflate their scores due to their specialness, DE, tackle numbers or influence late in a game during a close win. (The Rioli factor)

So many if's and but's. So what are peoples thoughts?

 

[croweyrocks]

Great topic. One thing I know is goalkicking mids and forwards/defenders that can rotate through the middle are going to be like gold. Listening to Hinkley on the radio and he reckons it won't be a huge difference- he thinks mids will be rotating the same but kpp will spend more time on the ground which in essence in his opinion means there will be more stay at home forwards.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Great topic. One thing I know is goalkicking mids and forwards/defenders that can rotate through the middle are going to be like gold. Listening to Hinkley on the radio and he reckons it won't be a huge difference- he thinks mids will be rotating the same but kpp will spend more time on the ground which in essence in his opinion means there will be more stay at home forwards.

Port wise this was my thinking on Grey who I like but might not start with and Wingard.
Wingard is already a top10 FWD. Can't see that changing so I'm starting with him. Should see alot more centre bounces and kick a heap of goal if Port show up again this year.

One thing based on what Hinkley has said is that maybe Westoff will be back up ruck with Ryder gone and go forward and play along the wing, more TOG. Could be a massive POD early. Always starts the season well.

 

[croweyrocks]

Port wise this was my thinking on Grey who I like but might not start with and Wingard.
Wingard is already a top10 FWD. Can't see that changing so I'm starting with him. Should see alot more centre bounces and kick a heap of goal if Port show up again this year.

One thing based on what Hinkley has said is that maybe Westoff will be back up ruck with Ryder gone and go forward and play along the wing, more TOG. Could be a massive POD early. Always starts the season well.

I like your thinking. Personally Trengove is a much better ruckman than Westhoff and Dixon. I'll be watching the nab games closely to see who chops out in the ruck for Lobbe. On Lobbe he ran a 10min 3k time trial which is very very impressive.

 

[Super Hans]

Would be interesting to see some data on who was the most subbed player.

I think the interchange cap helps someone like Dustin Martin. Players who can go forward instead of the bench.

 

[catstragic]

Basically the prediction is the endurance/running players are going to be advantaged by the rule, whereas impact players are going spend more time off the ball resting. If the game opens up this will probably help the KPP's as well, since they will have more room to work with and spend more time playing on part timers.

Another side is that its gonna push the small fwds/defenders into the mids more often. This should help players like Motlop/Wingard/J Martin scoring wise.

Its an interesting point about a reduction in ball ups, that should definitely impact on the pure ruckmen's numbers-i'm looking at you Sandilands.
I've been tossing up between a Goldy/Martin/Blicav ruck combo, And now i'm thinking that i may just go Martin/Blicav as they are the premo ruckmen who benefit the least from HOTA.

The game should also slow down which is going to give contested players an edge later in games, which may well help players like Mcdonald/Rance relative to players like Shaw/Simpson.

Either way, i'm really looking forward to this season.
The sub rule was crap, and i'm hoping that the games will open up a bit and give players some more room to show their stuff in.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Basically the prediction is the endurance/running players are going to be advantaged by the rule, whereas impact players are going spend more time off the ball resting. If the game opens up this will probably help the KPP's as well, since they will have more room to work with and spend more time playing on part timers.

Another side is that its gonna push the small fwds/defenders into the mids more often. This should help players like Motlop/Wingard/J Martin scoring wise.

Its an interesting point about a reduction in ball ups, that should definitely impact on the pure ruckmen's numbers-i'm looking at you Sandilands.
I've been tossing up between a Goldy/Martin/Blicav ruck combo, And now i'm thinking that i may just go Martin/Blicav as they are the premo ruckmen who benefit the least from HOTA.

The game should also slow down which is going to give contested players an edge later in games, which may well help players like Mcdonald/Rance relative to players like Shaw/Simpson.

Either way, i'm really looking forward to this season.
The sub rule was crap, and i'm hoping that the games will open up a bit and give players some more room to show their stuff in.

I reckon the game will definately slow down. Will give the KPP's more time to make a lead, shut someone down and the loose man in defense will relish the conditions, especially late in the game.

Last years games were played at a very quick pace. Freo finished top by zoning space and causing stopage after stopage. If the players can't track the ball as well then it stays fluid untill the next turnover or goal.
Not a lot of stopage downtime would have to hurt the ruckman and possibly the players who live at the ruckmans feet. JPK, Priddis, Libba, Neale, Ward.

 

[shielberight]

Would be interesting to see some data on who was the most subbed player.

I think the interchange cap helps someone like Dustin Martin. Players who can go forward instead of the bench.

Going forward isn't a rest though like going to the bench is. So while going forward keeps him on the ground, in the end I think it will mean less time in the midfield and probably less impact due to fatigue.

 

[Hazey1977]

I heard an interesting piece on the radio where they discussed the reduced interchange not being as drastic as everyone perceives it to be. There are allowed to be 4 changes at each break which are not included in the cap, so there's an extra 12 to take it back to 102. This means a real reduction of only 18.

I'm not sure if in previous seasons changes in the breaks were included in the cap, but the way they were speaking it sounded like they were.

 

[joop]

It won't result in more kicks down the line. Coaches have said they put more numbers around the ball to slow it down and give there players a rest.

 

[toxic]

I heard an interesting piece on the radio where they discussed the reduced interchange not being as drastic as everyone perceives it to be. There are allowed to be 4 changes at each break which are not included in the cap, so there's an extra 12 to take it back to 102. This means a real reduction of only 18.

I'm not sure if in previous seasons changes in the breaks were included in the cap, but the way they were speaking it sounded like they were.

Changes at breaks were not included previously.

 

[Krujan]

Basically the prediction is the endurance/running players are going to be advantaged by the rule, whereas impact players are going spend more time off the ball resting. If the game opens up this will probably help the KPP's as well, since they will have more room to work with and spend more time playing on part timers.

This is why I'm considering spending premo-rookie $$ on young Charlie Curnow if he has a decent NAB and named for Rd1. He's rates elite for contested marking and endurance. Finished 3rd in Carlton's 3.2km time trial last week and is competing strongly in one on one marking. Bolton said the other day that Charlie will be playing forward and midfield this year. (He was a midfielder before his growth spurt) 173k price very expensive for a 1st year rookie, especially for a KP forward, but he's a different kind of cat. Playing style will be more NRoo or Stringer as he has the size & power but with endurance to roam far up the ground, will surely burn opponents if they put a KP player on him or out-muscle running types.

 

[PowerDrafter]

I think we've overestimating the reduction. KP defenders will once again spend as much time on ground. Tom McDonald, Alex Rance, Alipate Carlisle, Daniel Talia I think lead the league in TOG last season. I just think maybe KP forwards will also do the same, Josh Kennedy, Jack Riewoldt, Jarryd Roughead, Kurt Tippett, Jay Schulz and Jesse Hogan will also spend a lot more time on the ground. It'll be interesting to see if clubs go with 2 ruckman, I know from a Port perspective Ken Hinkley has said he wants 2 ruckman regardless. But surely guys like Goldstein, Martin and Blicavs spend more time on the ground with their superior fitness. Guys like Robbie Gray, Chad Wingard, Brett Deledio, Dustin Martin, Luke Dalhause, Marcus Bontempelli (if he recovers from his injury) and the like, midfielders capable of spending 40% of games up forward will maximise their percentages spent in the forward half to be as dangerous as possible. Midfielders like Daniel Hannerbury, Rory Sloane, Jack Macrae I think will burden heavy work loads, not because they have to but because they can. It'll be interesting to see how much work the clubs are doing to improve the general players fitness. Not that I think it will change too much. Everyone I have mentioned had wonderful TOG last season.

80 interchanges works out to just over 3 and a half per player. Take Richmond as an example. If you have 4 maybe 5 players per team having less than 1 interchange per match aka Rance, Deledio, Martin, Riewoldt and Chaplin. Then you can have burst players like Yarran having 5 or 6 breaks a game. This is exactly the same as this year with the cap.

Game speed may slow a tad, we will see more contested 1 on 1's and the ends of games, especially late in the season will be very close. I'd be interested to see why you think there will be less ball ups? Does that mean you see the ball movement flowing end to end? Wouldn't that make the players more tired?

I'm very thankful and I think the whole of football is thankful too that we have gotten rid of this ridiculous rule. I think coaches felt obliged to make all 120 rotations last year when a few of them were just absolutely pointless. I remember 4 games maybe where the sub was made in the last 3 minutes of the game. That has no impact. This will create a move even feel to a game, more contributors per team. I think skills will be tested and improve on last year. Players won't feel the pinch till late in the year but on a whole I don't think it will affect our game too much. We did survive a long time with no interchanges, then 1, then 2 then 3 and 4 before the sub rule came in. I'm sure the players will be able to cope just fine.

The sub rule was bought in to help the teams not be at a disadvantage if they got an injury. It definitely didn't work like that. But now it's gone I think the only ramification will be is teams who do get 1, 2 injuries in a game will be disadvantaged. But isn't that always the case I guess?

Some of that probably made no sense

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Well I missed the bit about the interchanges during the breaks.
But it is interesting that they are now allowed 4 interchanges during the quarter and half time breaks. I bet the clubs had a sook so the AFL met them half way. 102 is not even half way from 120 to a reduced 80.
Pathetic by the AFL once again. Althought the removal of that bloody sub vest is the best thing they have done in living memory.

 

[Goats]

Well I missed the bit about the interchanges during the breaks.
But it is interesting that they are now allowed 4 interchanges during the quarter and half time breaks. I bet the clubs had a sook so the AFL met them half way. 102 is not even half way from 120 to a reduced 80.
Pathetic by the AFL once again. Althought the removal of that bloody sub vest is the best thing they have done in living memory.

The end of quarter interchanges weren't included last year either, so the reduction is the same.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

I think we've overestimating the reduction. KP defenders will once again spend as much time on ground. Tom McDonald, Alex Rance, Alipate Carlisle, Daniel Talia I think lead the league in TOG last season. I just think maybe KP forwards will also do the same, Josh Kennedy, Jack Riewoldt, Jarryd Roughead, Kurt Tippett, Jay Schulz and Jesse Hogan will also spend a lot more time on the ground. It'll be interesting to see if clubs go with 2 ruckman, I know from a Port perspective Ken Hinkley has said he wants 2 ruckman regardless. But surely guys like Goldstein, Martin and Blicavs spend more time on the ground with their superior fitness. Guys like Robbie Gray, Chad Wingard, Brett Deledio, Dustin Martin, Luke Dalhause, Marcus Bontempelli (if he recovers from his injury) and the like, midfielders capable of spending 40% of games up forward will maximise their percentages spent in the forward half to be as dangerous as possible. Midfielders like Daniel Hannerbury, Rory Sloane, Jack Macrae I think will burden heavy work loads, not because they have to but because they can. It'll be interesting to see how much work the clubs are doing to improve the general players fitness. Not that I think it will change too much. Everyone I have mentioned had wonderful TOG last season.

80 interchanges works out to just over 3 and a half per player. Take Richmond as an example. If you have 4 maybe 5 players per team having less than 1 interchange per match aka Rance, Deledio, Martin, Riewoldt and Chaplin. Then you can have burst players like Yarran having 5 or 6 breaks a game. This is exactly the same as this year with the cap.

Game speed may slow a tad, we will see more contested 1 on 1's and the ends of games, especially late in the season will be very close. I'd be interested to see why you think there will be less ball ups? Does that mean you see the ball movement flowing end to end? Wouldn't that make the players more tired?

I'm very thankful and I think the whole of football is thankful too that we have gotten rid of this ridiculous rule. I think coaches felt obliged to make all 120 rotations last year when a few of them were just absolutely pointless. I remember 4 games maybe where the sub was made in the last 3 minutes of the game. That has no impact. This will create a move even feel to a game, more contributors per team. I think skills will be tested and improve on last year. Players won't feel the pinch till late in the year but on a whole I don't think it will affect our game too much. We did survive a long time with no interchanges, then 1, then 2 then 3 and 4 before the sub rule came in. I'm sure the players will be able to cope just fine.

The sub rule was bought in to help the teams not be at a disadvantage if they got an injury. It definitely didn't work like that. But now it's gone I think the only ramification will be is teams who do get 1, 2 injuries in a game will be disadvantaged. But isn't that always the case I guess?

Some of that probably made no sense

Good point on the KPP. A lot spent 95% TOG or more. This makes me happy to start with Heater. I think he was one of the highest last year from memory.

As for the reduced number of ball ups. I don't see the ball moving up and down the ground more, as it did in the 90's, like a bloody yoyo.
More a decision by tired players to kick it sideways or short in order to retain possession and have a few seconds rest before jogging off into space to become another option.
This is also why I see the gut runners thriving. They will hand it off and still sprint pass to recieve it back.

This Hawthorn style of retaining possession (besides being the winning gameplan of late) gives players a bigger rest than a hard running game plan and also denies the other team the chance to tackle or spoil causing a turnover or a ball up.
As teams tire I think they will try to retain possession, bringing a reduction in ball ups.

The Hawks have never had great ruckman and don't like the ball to be in dispute. This is why Geelong always spanked the Hawks.
They would turn it into a contest and cause as many ball ups they could, backing themselves to win it out the pack compared to just retaining possession.
But if teams want to run themselves silly and kick it long into a contest that's fine to, the Hawks will just need a bigger cabinet thats all.

 

[RobZombie]

The end of quarter interchanges weren't included last year either, so the reduction is the same.

Except that there were 3 interchanges per break last year, 4 this year. So 129 down to 102.

 

[RobZombie]

And of course the best endurance players (or at least time trial champs) at NM are

Sam Gibson (can't kick)
Mason Wood (can kick but can't stay in the seniors)
Will Fordham (can't get off the rookie list)
Mitch Hibberd (draftee)
Declan Mountford (draftee)
Ryan Clarke (draftee)
Goldy (is quite good).

 

[Krujan]

And of course the best endurance players (or at least time trial champs) at NM are

Sam Gibson (can't kick)
Mason Wood (can kick but can't stay in the seniors)
Will Fordham (can't get off the rookie list)
Mitch Hibberd (draftee)
Declan Mountford (draftee)
Ryan Clarke (draftee)
Goldy (is quite good).

Time trials are overrated. Patrick Cripps came dead last at the draft combine time trial. That's right, last, out of all the players drafted that year. 3 year later, he's an elite runner.

 

[dlanod]

Going forward isn't a rest though like going to the bench is. So while going forward keeps him on the ground, in the end I think it will mean less time in the midfield and probably less impact due to fatigue.

Especially in this day and age of demanding forward pressure from those "resting" midfielders. They won't cover as much ground while resting, but there'll still be plenty of intensive bursts for them compared to being off the field.

Time trials are overrated. Patrick Cripps came dead last at the draft combine time trial. That's right, last, out of all the players drafted that year. 3 year later, he's an elite runner.

Do you know what his result is these days? Three year old time trials probably don't mean much, but if he's finishing top five (hypothetically) at the club this year it suggests current ones are somewhat relevant.

 

[RobZombie]

Time trials are overrated. Patrick Cripps came dead last at the draft combine time trial. That's right, last, out of all the players drafted that year. 3 year later, he's an elite runner.

Is 79%TOG really an elite runner? It's midway between the likes of Cunnington and Ziebell at 74%-75% and Heppell/Dangerfield/Pendlebury at 84%-85%. Gaff and Cross hit 90%, McVeigh and Mitchell 88%. He's big and carrying that much bulk around takes its toll. FWIW, Gibson, Wood, Fordham and Goldy have all shown they can use their endurance in game to good effect, albeit only the G's regularly at senior level.

 

[Krujan]

Is 79%TOG really an elite runner? It's midway between the likes of Cunnington and Ziebell at 74%-75% and Heppell/Dangerfield/Pendlebury at 84%-85%. Gaff and Cross hit 90%, McVeigh and Mitchell 88%. He's big and carrying that much bulk around takes its toll. FWIW, Gibson, Wood, Fordham and Goldy have all shown they can use their endurance in game to good effect, albeit only the G's regularly at senior level.

You're not looking at it objectively. He ranked 2nd out of all the Rising star (under 22 mids) last year for TOG% (behind Touk Miller's 83%)

Yes, 79.60% TOG is great when you take into account that he was drafted overweight and had a few injuries in his 1st year. He played 10 VFL games in his rookie year (which was good enough for 2nd in the Northern's BnF) and 3 senior games that were sub affected. (Also he was subbed out injured early in Rd1 2015, so that TOG would have been 80+ otherwise)

Fast forward to the off-season at the end of 2014, Cripps went home to W.A worried that he would come back to the club overweight and not get games, so off his own bat he hired an experienced running coach and sprinted up sand dunes every day during his break while other players were snorting coke of strippers tittays in Vegas. He came back in phenomenal shape due to losing 4kgs of puppy fat and putting on lean muscle and the results were evident by playing 20 games in 2015 and running out games well.

This pre-season he did the same with his running coach in W.A during the break and has taken his training to another level. Yes he's heavier now than when he was drafted, but that weight is now lean muscle.

Before Nov 2013 draft

Nov 2015

I'm pretty confident that he will greatly improve on his 79% TOG from 2015

 

[Kadog]

Impressive build over last two years. Kids got all the right tools for sure.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Yep. If his TOG goes up you would expect his average to follow suit.

 

[Hairy Lager]

Nov 2015

I'm pretty confident that he will greatly improve on his 79% TOG from 2015

You're doing a wonderful job with the kid, is he homesick yet?