Position Sub Watch 2013

[ashley12]

Long time lurker, first year I really want to get involved in the board

Anyway, after some discussions last week about who would potentially be the sub in the Port game, someone (cant remember who) claimed that there was no chance that Kane Mitchell would be the sub again, and with who else was named on the bench, it was likely Wines would get the green. It turns out he didn't, but the point being I thought it would be interesting to track how often the sub is named from the bench, in particular the last listed, as well as any other trends when it comes to who gets the green each week, as well as picking up which teams are more or least likely to call up a sub from the field rather then from the pine.

Tonights game vests were

SYD: Mitch Morton (4th listed)
GEE: Josh Caddy (3rd listed)

Would be cool if someone more technologically advanced could possibly set up a spreadsheet to track this as well, as well as what % of the time the sub comes from 4th bench, first three on the bench, and the field.

As an aside, the 4th listed for the rest of the games this week

HAW: Guerra
FRE: D.Pearce

RICH: Grigg
COLL: J.Thomas

STK: Ray
ESS: Myers

WCE: Sinclair (gets the vest maybe 2% of the time though)
CAR: White

GC: O'Meara
PORT: Cassisi

MELB: Pederson
GWS: Whitfield

ADEL: Lynch
WB: Cross

NM: Hansen
BRIS: Paparone

As per http://www.afl.com.au/news/teams

As an aside, if there is already a thread or external resource that shows sub stats would be sweet to link...

 

[Krujan]

O'Meara better not be sub.

 

[Butler]

Round 1

Nahas: Named in forward pocket
Joseph: Named 3rd on bench

Clay Smith: Named last on bench
Clay Beams: Named first on bench

Taylor Adams: Named first on bench
Tony Armstrong: Named first on bench

Brandon Matera: Named on half forward flank
Trent Dennis Lane: Named second on bench

Sam Blease: Named first on extended bench
Kane Mitchell: Named 4th on extended bench

Sam Dwyer: Named second on extended bench
Liam Anthony: Named first on extended bench

Jed Anderson: Named first on extended bench
George Horlin-Smith: Named 5th on extended bench

Round 2

Brandon Ellis: Named first on bench
Adam Schneider: Named on wing

Craig Bird: Named first on bench
Jared Brennan: Named 3rd on bench

Koby Stevens: Named on the wing
Cameron Sutcliffe: Named last on bench

Jason Porplyzia: Named in forward pocket
Patrick Karnezis: Named second on bench

David Rodan: Named as an emergency
Nick Kommer: Named in forward pocket

Will Hoskin Elliot: Named on wing
Kane Mitchell: Named 3rd on bench

Matthew Stokes: Named 3rd on bench
Ben Jacobs: Named second on bench

Paul Seedsman: Named on wing
Brock Mclean: Named as follower

Brad Dalziel: Named second last on extended bench
Shane Savage: Named 4th on extended bench

Round 3

Cameron Sutcliffe: Named last on bench
Travis Colyer: Named at half forward

Sam Wright: Named first on bench
Craig Bird: Named second on bench

Jimmy Toumpas: Named first on bench
Jamie Cripps: Named second on bench

Sam Reid: Named first on bench
Farren Ray: Named as an emergency

Josh Caddy: Named 3rd on bench
Dylan Buckley: Named 3rd on bench

Luke Russell: Named 3rd on bench
James Polkinghorne: Named 3rd on bench

Brandon Ellis: Named first on bench
Clay Smith: Named on wing

Alex Fasolo: Named last on bench
Isaac Smith: Named 3rd on bench

Kane Mitchell: Named 2nd on bench
Bernie Vince: Named last on bench

Summary of season so far:

Named on field: 11
Named 1st on bench: 12
Named 2nd on bench: 7
Named 3rd on bench: 9
Named last on bench: 6
Named 5-8 on extended bench: 2
Named as emergency: 2

Interesting that although so many people get paranoid about a player being named last on the bench, only 6 have been named from that spot. Where as the "safer" bet of a player being named on the field has the second highest with 11 subs named.

Now personally, I don't really believe that it matters where a player is named but it is brought up an awful lot on these forums so I thought I might as well put up some numbers.

Note: The first two games of round 1 are missing as I couldn't find the original team sheets.

 

[Krujan]

Yikes...wouldn't want one of your players to be named on the Wing! (5 green vests)

 

[Butler]

Yikes...wouldn't want one of your players to be named on the Wing! (5 green vests)

From memory, Embley was named on the wing round 1 as well (not too sure though). That would make it 6.

 

[Jessbek]

O'Meara better not be sub.

Won't.

 

[Krujan]

I benched Libba because I had a gut feeling just before lockout that he would be sub this week. He'll of course play the whole game and pump out a 120 though. Perfect example why you should not start drinking until AFTER lockout!

 

[ashley12]

Solid work

Most dogs fans are sure stringer has the green this week

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I benched Libba because I had a gut feeling just before lockout that he would be sub this week.

No way Gingy...it's almost definitely Stringer's. Still unfit and Libba is far too important to us.

 

[Fitzey]

I have D.Pearce and J.O'Meara!!!! FMDT

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I have D.Pearce and J.O'Meara!!!! FMDT

Pearce is far too important to Freo. Would be incredibly surprised if he's the sub.

 

[JDWCE]

Libba sub!?!? You're crazy Gingy

 

[Krujan]

No way Gingy...it's almost definitely Stringer's. Still unfit and Libba is far too important to us.

I didn't look at the final team sheet closely enough. Thought that Stringer was an emergency for some stupid drunken reason.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I didn't look at the final team sheet closely enough. Thought that Stringer was an emergency for some stupid drunken reason.

Ahh alcohol...the destroyer of many a Dream Team.

I would tell you that I hope Libba spuds it up, but in actual fact I hope he blasts out a 150, so this is awkward...

 

[WCEprod]

Ahh alcohol...the destroyer of many a Dream Team.

I would tell you that I hope Libba spuds it up, but in actual fact I hope he blasts out a 150, so this is awkward...

I ended up dropping him so he probably will

 

[CrozaN]

Gingy benched Libba and made Danger Captain.....notsureifsrs.jpg.

 

[ashley12]

Cant find the data from AFL.com, (will only give me teams from Round 5) and other sources sometimes list the interchange players in an order different then what they were first written

Butler where did you get the earlier information from?

Anyway, using the previous data and what we know from this week, there is definitely very little value in automatically assuming last place = sub, though I guess once you take out reasonably illogical sub options (such as Sinclair in the Eagles system) perhaps the number is a little better...