Prediction Swans Team in Four Years Time.

[Lakeside Swan]

We find ourselves in some pretty exciting times at the moment as Swans supporters. In particular we have some great youths coming through, including the players we are hoping to get our hands on.

I thought some strategic discussion on our team in say four years time would make things interesting. I thought that five years was just a little too far in the future to predict.

Here's my suggestion but I'm sure that others will have some very different opinions. Of course it's hit and miss but it should create some interesting discussions.

B: Jones, Aliir, Newman.
HB: Dunkley, Melican, Rampe.
C: Mills, Mitchell, Hannebery.
HF: Rohan, Franklin, Lloyd.
FF: Rose, Nankervis, Kennedy.
F: Naismith, Heeney, Parker.
I/C & fringe: McLaren (swingman), Davis, Perris, AJ?, Smith, Hewett, Towers, Robinson, X.Richards, Hiscox, Reid?, Cunningham, Bird.

 

[vonn]

$100 Mitchell won't be in.

 

[RUNVS]

This sort of threads never go well as it is so hard to predict what is going to happen in 4 years time but in saying that so far the demographics of our list is not bad. The guys whose careers will be ending within the next 4 years are all replaceable. There is no one over 28 at the moment who I am thinking "how the hell are we going to be able to replace them when they retire".

Our big issues at the moment are

Key defence
Ruck

That is the only holes I see in our list if we are not able to replace our current players in those positions.

 

[S120]

Not including Nick Smith, 13 players from round four 2011 played on the weekend against GWS. That's a fair indication that nearly half of the people in your 22 are likely to not only not be in the best 22 but also not on the list at all in four years time.

 

[Lakeside Swan]

Not including Nick Smith, 13 players from round four 2011 played on the weekend against GWS. That's a fair indication that nearly half of the people in your 22 are likely to not only not be in the best 22 but also not on the list at all in four years time.

That's right. 13 on my list played last weekend so it may not be that far out.

Also there will be a few new players recruited between now and then that will be playing.

 

[The King!]

Whered tippett go
If reid is still a maybe in four years time ill scream

Not enough poached players

Fyfe, dangerfield and co

 

[MarkP]

How is Perris?

 

[swansfan51]

We find ourselves in some pretty exciting times at the moment as Swans supporters. In particular we have some great youths coming through, including the players we are hoping to get our hands on.

I thought some strategic discussion on our team in say four years time would make things interesting. I thought that five years was just a little too far in the future to predict.

Here's my suggestion but I'm sure that others will have some very different opinions. Of course it's hit and miss but it should create some interesting discussions.

B: Jones, Aliir, Newman.
HB: Dunkley, Melican, Rampe.
C: Mills, Mitchell, Hannebery.
HF: Rohan, Franklin, Lloyd.
FF: Rose, Nankervis, Kennedy.
F: Naismith, Heeney, Parker.
I/C & fringe: McLaren (swingman), Davis, Perris, AJ?, Smith, Hewett, Towers, Robinson, X.Richards, Hiscox, Reid?, Cunningham, Bird.

Many of the spots will be filled by players who are not currently on our list. You can't just name every player under 25 and assume they are all AFL quality. Several are list cloggers and a lot will have been delisted by then.

Lets try a different exercise - which players on our list are good enough to be playing AFL in 4 years time, identifying the gaps where we need to recruit or develop players.

B: Smith, ??? , Laidler
HB: Rampe, Waite, Rohan
C: Hannebery, Parker, Jetta
HF: ???, Franklin, Lloyd
F: ???, Tippett, ???
R: ???, Kennedy, Heeney
Int: Jack, Bird, Jones, ???

That's a pretty good position. If one of Naismith or Nankervis proves a competent ruckman, and one of Aliir, Richards and Melican proves a competent key defender, it is a very good position. Tippett in 4 years is the same age guys like Waite and Riewoldt are now, he's a decent chance but not a certainty. Jetta will be 29 in 4 years, not sure why you've pensioned him off. I haven't included Mills or Dunkley but if signed they are a good chance to fill 2 of the empty spots. Even though I've tried to be conservative, inevitably a couple of the guys I've named will fall apart. Inevitably a couple of the draftees will have stepped up, but most will no longer be on the list.

 

[The King!]

snuck a waite in

 

[The King!]

Probably also worth looking at what changes in 4 years

Round 4 4 years ago

Still playing or on list
Kennedy
Jack
Shaw
Mcglynn
Grundy
Mcveigh
Goodes *
Bird
Smith
Richards
Hannebery
Jetta
Reid (was a promising swingman i believe)
Johnson*
Rohan


Gone

Mumford
Bevan
Okeefe
Bolton
Mattner
Everitt
White

Goodes and johnson are questionable going forward.

We were a season off a flag and the "window" is still open so we are pretty settled over the last few years but even just comparing starting 22s 4 years apart there are 7 or more changes

Bet other sides have a lot more, you just cant predict who goes home, who gets injured, who fades etc

 

[MarkP]

You missed Harry

 

[The King!]

Many of the spots will be filled by players who are not currently on our list. You can't just name every player under 25 and assume they are all AFL quality. Several are list cloggers and a lot will have been delisted by then.

Lets try a different exercise - which players on our list are good enough to be playing AFL in 4 years time, identifying the gaps where we need to recruit or develop players.

B: Smith, ??? , Laidler
HB: Rampe, Waite, Rohan
C: Hannebery, Parker, Jetta
HF: ???, Franklin, Lloyd
F: ???, Tippett, ???
R: ???, Kennedy, Heeney
Int: Jack, Bird, Jones, ???

That's a pretty good position. If one of Naismith or Nankervis proves a competent ruckman, and one of Aliir, Richards and Melican proves a competent key defender, it is a very good position. Tippett in 4 years is the same age guys like Waite and Riewoldt are now, he's a decent chance but not a certainty. Jetta will be 29 in 4 years, not sure why you've pensioned him off. I haven't included Mills or Dunkley but if signed they are a good chance to fill 2 of the empty spots. Even though I've tried to be conservative, inevitably a couple of the guys I've named will fall apart. Inevitably a couple of the draftees will have stepped up, but most will no longer be on the list.

Dermott would have franklin retired

 

[RUNVS]

Many of the spots will be filled by players who are not currently on our list. You can't just name every player under 25 and assume they are all AFL quality. Several are list cloggers and a lot will have been delisted by then.

Lets try a different exercise - which players on our list are good enough to be playing AFL in 4 years time, identifying the gaps where we need to recruit or develop players.

B: Smith, ??? , Laidler
HB: Rampe, Waite, Rohan
C: Hannebery, Parker, Jetta
HF: ???, Franklin, Lloyd
F: ???, Tippett, ???
R: ???, Kennedy, Heeney
Int: Jack, Bird, Jones, ???

That's a pretty good position. If one of Naismith or Nankervis proves a competent ruckman, and one of Aliir, Richards and Melican proves a competent key defender, it is a very good position. Tippett in 4 years is the same age guys like Waite and Riewoldt are now, he's a decent chance but not a certainty. Jetta will be 29 in 4 years, not sure why you've pensioned him off. I haven't included Mills or Dunkley but if signed they are a good chance to fill 2 of the empty spots. Even though I've tried to be conservative, inevitably a couple of the guys I've named will fall apart. Inevitably a couple of the draftees will have stepped up, but most will no longer be on the list.

Minus Waite (not sure why he is there ha) that is not a bad team to have. The holes are there but it is nothing to be too concerned with though I would go with

B: Smith, ??? , Laidler
HB: Rampe, ???, Rohan
C: Hannebery, Parker, Jetta
HF: ???, Franklin, Lloyd
F: ???, Tippett, ???
R: ???, Kennedy, Heeney
Int: Jack, Bird, ???, ???

as I don't think Jones has shown enough yet at an AFL level to say he is a certainty. So going by that we have 8 spots to fill, 2 of which will very likely be Mills and Dunkley, I also like to think we will still have Mitchell and he will be in the team so that is 3 spots. Then we add one of our upcoming ruckman so hopefully that is 4 of the 8 right there.

The problem for us is CHB and FB. We need at least one of Aliir, X.Richards, McLaren, Melican or Davis to come good, ideally 2. Given that there are 5 players there it is not unreasonable to think 1 or 2 of them will make it at an AFL level as a key defender.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Dermott would have franklin retired

What is with this bizarre call that Franklin has like one more season left in him after this?

More bizarre is that noone has corrected him.

Does Franklin have a disease or something

 

[The King!]

What is with this bizarre call that Franklin has like one more season left in him after this?

More bizarre is that noone has corrected him.

Does Franklin have a disease or something

Its dermott people tune him out they know he is a flog

 

[Lakeside Swan]

[QUOTE="RUNVS, post: 38071935, member: 36535]
The problem for us is CHB and FB. We need at least one of Aliir, X.Richards, McLaren, Melican or Davis to come good, ideally 2. Given that there are 5 players there it is not unreasonable to think 1 or 2 of them will make it at an AFL level as a key defender.[/QUOTE]
Agreed, the key defender is our biggest concern. I'm extremely confident that we'll get 2 or 3 out of those. I've been impressed by McLaren in particular so far. We recruited him as a defender but he's been doing well up forward. Could make a great swingman.

 

[Nool Carpenna]

Whered tippett go
If reid is still a maybe in four years time ill scream

Not enough poached players

Fyfe, dangerfield and co

For sure Fyfe, maybe even Ablett for a last chance at a career-icing flag, but Danger? He'd wanna harden up a bit after his performance last weekend

 

[MF]

We find ourselves in some pretty exciting times at the moment as Swans supporters. In particular we have some great youths coming through, including the players we are hoping to get our hands on.

I thought some strategic discussion on our team in say four years time would make things interesting. I thought that five years was just a little too far in the future to predict.

Here's my suggestion but I'm sure that others will have some very different opinions. Of course it's hit and miss but it should create some interesting discussions.

B: Jones, Aliir, Newman.
HB: Dunkley, Melican, Rampe.
C: Mills, Mitchell, Hannebery.
HF: Rohan, Franklin, Lloyd.
FF: Rose, Nankervis, Kennedy.
F: Naismith, Heeney, Parker.
I/C & fringe: McLaren (swingman), Davis, Perris, AJ?, Smith, Hewett, Towers, Robinson, X.Richards, Hiscox, Reid?, Cunningham, Bird.

What happened to Jack?

 

[Grongey]

In four years time, hate to say it, but there's a strong chance that Mitchell, Reid, Tippett and Jetta won't even be at the club, due to

- trades, we need KPDs, and we're going to have to give something up to get them. If we get Mills and Dunkley, where does that leave Mitchell in the pecking order

- potential for injuries

 

[Lakeside Swan]

What happened to Jack?

I assumed that he would be retired by then.

 

[MF]

I assumed that he would be retired by then.

Fair enough. He'll only be 31 though.