News The Rain and Floods

[koshari]

Power stayed on. Funny because we've lost it from much smaller storms several times over the last couple of years. I'm all good but I don't know about the brushcutter and some other stuff in the garage. Went down to Melbourne today by driving backroads I've never used before. Saw the Maribyrnong, it's completely cactus, flooded on both sides where the trains to North Melbourne cross. I'd never seen flooding that bad before there.

our power stayed on, was more concerned it could have gone out with the winds, but they have done a lot of work over the last 12 months and were on the main feeder to willow grove.

 

[Gasometer]

Goulburn rose about 30cm the past 13 hours or so. On track for Moderate flood. Should know by lunchtime tomorrow I suppose.

 

[The Big O]

Road into work a bit damp!

On SM-S901E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Tas]

Glaciers have melted and s**t is going down. How much time do you spend outside?

Yes, it is changing. My point is the ice will go even without humans, so it is an inevitability unless we plan to freeze the oceans. We are speeding up the process, it would be desirable if we stopped speeding it up. We are making half-arsed attempts to try and slow our impact but those that generate the most CO2 aren't required to even slow down their emissions so I can't see how we are going to slow it down let alone stop it based on current efforts.

My point is not to panic every time it rains or we have a drought and say this is global warming and the end is nigh. If we didn't have three consecutive La Nina's it wouldn't have been as bad. Consecutive La Ninas have over-saturated the land. They don't expect more frequent occurrences of La Ninas based on current knowledge as a result of climate change, they just expect them to become more intense with the rise in temperature.

Attribute the parts that science attributes to climate change, we don't need to make up the rest.

We've known for decades that we are going to get larger more intense weather events because of climate change. What preparations have we made? Nothing. We know we are more prone to dangerous fire seasons, especially during drought, what have we done to reduce the risk and minimise the damage when it occurs? Nothing.

The result is people die, a lot of damage is done. It is easier to just blame climate change and do nothing rather than say, okay, this is the s**t we have to deal with, how are we going to deal with these events.

Yes I know how the climate works.

Do you? Even the experts don't know exactly how everything works, they still do a lot of research to try and figure stuff out.

Why don't you analyse the amount of precipitation over the last 50 years and the changes as well as the changes in flood height this century. Its been one record after another in many parts of the country.

And what is the point of me doing that? Yes it has, and it is going to get worse especially when we get periods of consecutive La Ninas, but there are things we can do to reduce the impact of flooding. We've known a long time about the s**t we will have to deal with, we haven't done anything about it. This government doesn't do pro-active s**t until we get a royal commission to say c'mon man, do something. The sad reality is the opposition is even worse than Do Nothing Dan, they don't even believe in climate change.

Yeah I read this sort of s**t 30 years ago and the predictions that were made have happened.

The last research is two years ago and the knowledge base is constantly changing/evolving and some of the NOAA scientists also work on the IPCC report assessments. Do you think they are climate change deniers or something? Our knowledge of how the climate works is far from complete, 10 years ago they didn't know it was possible for the wind patterns around the Antarctic to change, it did and resulted in record levels of sea ice occurring, before changing back. Will the ENSO cycle change with climate change, they don't believe so, to the best of their current understanding. They expect them to get more intense with the temperature increase but science is really the expanding of knowledge over time.

Two - three years ago. Remember when severe fire seasons came every decade or two and didn't cause humungous losses in multiple states. you should cos you're old enough. We are unable to effectively "clean the fuel". Pre Invasion fire management was one of the major drivers of indigenous culture. Failure to manage fuel loads could be a cause for war between neighbours. If its properly managed we shouldn't even have crown fires any more. Modern forms of fuel reduction usually make the problems worse. Wytalibah was wiped out less than three years ago. It was one place where fuel reduction was an ongoing, well managed (or so we thought) process. It was destroyed within a few months of its last hazard reduction burning.

Yes, and in NSW, QLD and VIC in particular they do not allow indigenous communities to manage the land like they used to, where the fires were worst was on government land where they had stopped burn-off because putting CO2 into the atmosphere is bad... well, how bad is putting half our forests and a billion animals into the atmosphere? I am guessing even worse.

Fine, don't burn that s**t off, you can gather that s**t up and mulch it, it is going to magnitudes more expensive to deal with it that way but they chose to do nothing instead so we got the colossal *up that we got. We will not have the same problems for some time afterwards because all that fuel is gone.

Who took responsibility? Nobody, they just blamed climate change when it was the change of policy that exacerbated the problem. If we don't manage the land properly than it is going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

How long do you think humans have been here? As your graph shows ice has been on the planet for about a third of the last 500 million years. Humans evolved during the last ice age, after 1.5 - 2 million years of cooling. We are dependent on a planet with ice caps and its not a sure thing we can survive on one without them. Its certainly not a sure thing that our modern infrastructure can. I'd bet it can't.

Best theory is around 200,000 years ago. Mankind has not known a world that hasn't had ice on it.

It is why why I said we have never known what "normal" is, we are not just trying to stop our contribution to climate change, we have to overcome natural change as well if we don't want water levels to rise.

But there is all sorts of s**t going on we have no control over, the earth's core is cooling much more rapidly than anticipated and the Earth's crust is getting a lot thinner for reasons we do not understand, we have become way overdue for major fault line earthquakes and major volcanic eruptions. There are a lot of wild theories about what is going on and what is coming but we really have nfi what is going on or why, it is all beyond our control or ability to impact regardless.

But yeah, assuming nothing else adds to the woes, I imagine it wouldn't be very nice to live on Earth with no glaciers. On the plus side, plants will love it.

We are seeing manifest changes.

Absolutely.

They probably wouldn't matter so much if we weren't so dependent on fragile infrastructure and leveraged systems. The weather/climate is a dynamic system. Small inputs into dynamic systems can cause major changes in output in areas because those systems don't distribute energy evenly, they distribute it unevenly. So the average temperature may increase a small amount but the fluctuations (ie extreme events) can vary wildly. It doesn't take alot of warming to remove nearly 10,000 homes from the East Coast. As we've seen in the lst three years.

Definitely.

Just how long do you think humans have been around for?

there wasn't any ice on this planet before humans - Tas upthread.

Not sure I articulated myself well there. I mean before humans were around there were very long periods where we had no glaciers, so it is not a natural state for the planet to have glaciers, they are a result of an event that triggered a global ice age and we are nearing the end point of it. Given our planet's proximity to the sun and the makeup of our atmosphere, it isn't able to retain ice indefinitely. It has been melting away since the event occurred and had we never appeared it would have done it regardless.

We're already dealing with it.

Where I live over the last 15 years we've had four so called "one in a thousand year" floods and a bunch of record breaking fire seasons that got exponentially worse until very recently when records were broken smashed to pieces and places burned that hadn't for thousands of years. People already die because of climate change, economies and agriculture are already being impacted by it. Its not going to stop and we have * all control over which generation gets to experience it because we already are.

Getting wiped out isn't dealing with it. It is like Brisbane getting flooded every few years isn't dealing with it either. We know what volumes of water our water systems can handle receiving, we can significantly increase the capacity.

Our grand plan by the Victorian Government is to almost double the state's population by the 2050s, we are going to need substantially more water than we have at present to accommodate those kind of numbers. When the opportunity arises during drier periods, we need to execute plans to expand the capacity of water storage and the ability of our waterways to push what are expected to be distant future amounts of flood water. We don't want to turn our towns into lakes and we don't want to wash off our topsoil either.

If we do nothing we are constantly be going to deal with things as victims.

 

[Only Forwards]

 

[ferball]

Power stayed on. Funny because we've lost it from much smaller storms several times over the last couple of years. I'm all good but I don't know about the brushcutter and some other stuff in the garage. Went down to Melbourne today by driving backroads I've never used before. Saw the Maribyrnong, it's completely cactus, flooded on both sides where the trains to North Melbourne cross. I'd never seen flooding that bad before there.

It looked as bad or (more likely) worse than the 80s floods.

At least you're okay and your house is.

 

[ferball]

Yes, it is changing. My point is the ice will go even without humans, so it is an inevitability unless we plan to freeze the oceans. We are speeding up the process, it would be desirable if we stopped speeding it up. We are making half-arsed attempts to try and slow our impact but those that generate the most CO2 aren't required to even slow down their emissions so I can't see how we are going to slow it down let alone stop it based on current efforts.

Yes. Its a bit of an issue.

My point is not to panic every time it rains or we have a drought and say this is global warming and the end is nigh. If we didn't have three consecutive La Nina's it wouldn't have been as bad. Consecutive La Ninas have over-saturated the land. They don't expect more frequent occurrences of La Ninas based on current knowledge as a result of climate change, they just expect them to become more intense with the rise in temperature.

There are people who panic every time it rains because they have PTSD from repeated flooding over the past decade or so.

I think you're mistaking panic with frustration and annoyance from people like me tho. Because every time we have a drought or rain event it is made worse by climate change. Ie climate change drives increases in the intensity of these events over time. So not every event is caused by climate change but they'd all be easier to deal with if it wasn't happening.

Some disasters are obviously attributable to climate change now tho. Its been going on long enough that you can point to certain changes in weather behaviours and sometimes to events associated with them and say this stuff is new in our experience. Its not a long time record but its long enough.

Attribute the parts that science attributes to climate change, we don't need to make up the rest.

We've known for decades that we are going to get larger more intense weather events because of climate change. What preparations have we made? Nothing. We know we are more prone to dangerous fire seasons, especially during drought, what have we done to reduce the risk and minimise the damage when it occurs? Nothing.

This isn't true. A whole lot more is done to reduce fuel loads and prevent serious fires. But there are limits to what can be done once it gets dry.

There is alot of country that needs to be burnt. Unless you have people devoted to doing it all the time it doesn't get done. That's impossible given how we organise society.

Do you? Even the experts don't know exactly how everything works, they still do a lot of research to try and figure stuff out.

Well enough yes. No one will ever know exactly how anything works but there are plenty of models that work well enough for anyone to understand... its only the level of detail and complexity that gets refined or increased.

And what is the point of me doing that? Yes it has, and it is going to get worse especially when we get periods of consecutive La Ninas, but there are things we can do to reduce the impact of flooding. We've known a long time about the s**t we will have to deal with, we haven't done anything about it. This government doesn't do pro-active s**t until we get a royal commission to say c'mon man, do something. The sad reality is the opposition is even worse than Do Nothing Dan, they don't even believe in climate change.



The last research is two years ago and the knowledge base is constantly changing/evolving and some of the NOAA scientists also work on the IPCC report assessments. Do you think they are climate change deniers or something? Our knowledge of how the climate works is far from complete, 10 years ago they didn't know it was possible for the wind patterns around the Antarctic to change, it did and resulted in record levels of sea ice occurring, before changing back. Will the ENSO cycle change with climate change, they don't believe so, to the best of their current understanding. They expect them to get more intense with the temperature increase but science is really the expanding of knowledge over time.

You came across completely differently in that other post. I agree with most of of this.

Yes, and in NSW, QLD and VIC in particular they do not allow indigenous communities to manage the land like they used to, where the fires were worst was on government land where they had stopped burn-off because putting CO2 into the atmosphere is bad... well, how bad is putting half our forests and a billion animals into the atmosphere? I am guessing even worse

Fine, don't burn that s**t off, you can gather that s**t up and mulch it, it is going to magnitudes more expensive to deal with it that way but they chose to do nothing instead so we got the colossal *up that we got. We will not have the same problems for some time afterwards because all that fuel is gone.

Who took responsibility? Nobody, they just blamed climate change when it was the change of policy that exacerbated the problem. If we don't manage the land properly than it is going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Its been way too dry this century to successfully burn enough country to manage fuel loads properly. Its not a question of stopping burning because of CO2 emissions. There aren't enough people and the safe window hasn't been open long enough to burn enough. One of the other reasons we do less burning off is that the limits on what and when you can burn have tightened up. Alot of damage was done by prescribed burns that got out of control this century, partly cos people planning the burns weren't taking account climate change and the way things were changing.

The ground seems to be drying faster than it used to. That may be a false impression because of the long term dry over most of this century, we'll definitely know in about five years tho because things are properly saturated for the first time in as long as i can remember. RH is lower and curing rates seem higher.

Best theory is around 200,000 years ago. Mankind has not known a world that hasn't had ice on it.

It is why why I said we have never known what "normal" is, we are not just trying to stop our contribution to climate change, we have to overcome natural change as well if we don't want water levels to rise.

Yeah, yeah the climate is always changing. What's important in this situation is the rate of change isn't beyond our ability to cope with. We're actually driving that right now tho.

But there is all sorts of s**t going on we have no control over, the earth's core is cooling much more rapidly than anticipated and the Earth's crust is getting a lot thinner for reasons we do not understand, we have become way overdue for major fault line earthquakes and major volcanic eruptions. There are a lot of wild theories about what is going on and what is coming but we really have nfi what is going on or why, it is all beyond our control or ability to impact regardless.

We can act on the things we can control. Its stupid not to cos some thing we can't control might * us up later.

Not sure I articulated myself well there.

NO probably not.

I mean before humans were around there were very long periods where we had no glaciers, so it is not a natural state for the planet to have glaciers, they are a result of an event that triggered a global ice age and we are nearing the end point of it. Given our planet's proximity to the sun and the makeup of our atmosphere, it isn't able to retain ice indefinitely. It has been melting away since the event occurred and had we never appeared it would have done it regardless.

Humans have never known a world without ice caps. We probably don't survive as a species without them. So we should moderate our behaviour if it is destroying them faster than they would otherwise go.

We might go but whatever happens life will be fine on earth. Evolution has been happening for a long time and dealt with all sorts of nasty crap. But as a species we might not be able to.

If we do nothing we are constantly be going to deal with things as victims.

My point is that we just need to *en deal with them.

We aren't.

 

[Jimmy's Hot Dogs]

Rain and Floods is looking like War and Peace

 

[Gasometer]

Rain and Floods is looking like War and Peace

Isn’t it?!

It’s gone the same pathway as the COVIDs threads

Water heading towards doorways or already there and there’s a side argument about Global Warming

Meanwhile I can hear the Ambulance Chopper warming up to take some poor soul to Melbourne out of harms way in case the power goes off

Do you blokes sit around at a footy game watching a fight in the crowd discussing the philosophical and scientific reasoning around aggression?

Plenty of threads elsewhere for the great debate

Victorian Premier visits Shepparton amid major flood warning for Goulburn River

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews visited Shepparton’s Incident Control Centre (ICC) on Friday afternoon and said the next couple of days were going to be “a very cha...

www.sheppnews.com.au

 

[koshari]

Road into work a bit damp!View attachment 1536377

On SM-S901E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Looks like a weir rather than a road,

 

[Hojuman]

Isn’t it?!

It’s gone the same pathway as the COVIDs threads

Water heading towards doorways or already there and there’s a side argument about Global Warming

Meanwhile I can hear the Ambulance Chopper warming up to take some poor soul to Melbourne out of harms way in case the power goes off

Do you blokes sit around at a footy game watching a fight in the crowd discussing the philosophical and scientific reasoning around aggression?

Plenty of threads elsewhere for the great debate

Victorian Premier visits Shepparton amid major flood warning for Goulburn River

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews visited Shepparton’s Incident Control Centre (ICC) on Friday afternoon and said the next couple of days were going to be “a very cha...

www.sheppnews.com.au

Shut-up and pick up a mop !

 

[Gasometer]

Shut-up and pick up a mop !

Just gone past 10m

 

[Hojuman]

You got evacuation orders Gasometer ?

 

[Nate7]

Hey all the best mate. Good luck.

Safe, but not out of it yet.

 

[blackshadow]

My old man's uncle stayed to defend his property with a couple of blokes in Carisbrook and that seems to have worked out but haven't heard anything since this morn; me grandad lives near a creek in Castlemaine which also copped it but seems to have escaped the worst of it, and my uncle's estate was cut off in Marong but not actually threatened so they're just awaiting it out but can't go anywhere. Seems like it's all okay so far though thankfully.

Wait your uncle has an estate?

 

[Gasometer]

You got evacuation orders Gasometer ?

Nope. A few mates.

Jy’s town is basically cactus; flooded in and probably tomorrow will be in a spot of bother.

Currently sitting at 11.54m

I got about 15 sandbags this afternoon and bagged one low lying door and the rest went on inside drains and the last minute toilet in case they come up.

The main Lake has spilt over and is now joined up with the River and both are spilling out into the Main Street Wyndham.

I just loaded the car with suitcase of all our docs and photos. I don’t expect to be evacuated but if they come knocking at 4am what do you do?

I really have no idea wat I am doing nor do many of us. If it was a fire it’s a no brainer to leave but this is different

 

[Gumble Frankieton]

Wait your uncle has an estate?

Maybe Uncle Rippersnipper was watching a bit of YouTube and got sucked in by the established titles.com sales pitch and so he is now Lord Rippersnipper. Naturally enough he is now referring to his property as an estate.

Name of the Title Holder

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Discount price$41.99

---

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[Gasometer]

I lold

 

[Rod Stroker]

Who are the current owners of the Anglers Tavern? Didn’t Corey McK own it once? Underwater atm

I grew up in that area.

Before flooding:


Now:



View attachment WhatsApp Video 2022-10-14 at 11.26.12 AM.mp4

 

[Gasometer]

Shepparton Floods 2022
On Facebook has the images of woe

 

[ferball]

Nope. A few mates.

Jy’s town is basically cactus; flooded in and probably tomorrow will be in a spot of bother.

Currently sitting at 11.54m

I got about 15 sandbags this afternoon and bagged one low lying door and the rest went on inside drains and the last minute toilet in case they come up.

The main Lake has spilt over and is now joined up with the River and both are spilling out into the Main Street Wyndham.

I just loaded the car with suitcase of all our docs and photos. I don’t expect to be evacuated but if they come knocking at 4am what do you do?

I really have no idea wat I am doing nor do many of us. If it was a fire it’s a no brainer to leave but this is different

Make sure you have change of clothes incl. undies and socks, toothbrushes etc, computer/laptop/devices and chargers other things that make you feel comfortable. Think of it as going camping for a week and maybe coming home to everything else being trashed.

Good luck, hope you don't need to go anywhere.

 

[Tectonic]

Anyone know how long it'd take to repair a pub like that??

I could use the chefs

 

[Gasometer]

Make sure you have change of clothes incl. undies and socks, toothbrushes etc, computer/laptop/devices and chargers other things that make you feel comfortable. Think of it as going camping for a week and maybe coming home to everything else being trashed.

Good luck, hope you don't need to go anywhere.

And Passports because be stuffed if I am going through that drama or updating them like I have this year

 

[Rod Stroker]

Anyone know how long it'd take to repair a pub like that??

I could use the chefs

I'd give them a call and ask the management if their chefs are looking for work during the clean up period

 

[Lomas]

I have been away for work since Tuesday, but had family watching my place. Took them seven hours to do the usual two hour trip back on Saturday with all the roads cut off. Property is in good shape, but the fencers and road crews will be busy for months.