Analysis The Rebuilds Of Hawthorn and Geelong and their Future Prospects

[Juddernaut08]

A topic sure to be discussed throughout the coming years is in relation to Geelong and Hawthorn and which club’s future looks to be better positioned to make another tilt for a flag.

Similarities
Both clubs were powerhouses of recent times who have achieved sustained success and multiple flags.

Both clubs have had a changing of the guard, with almost all of those Premiership heroes now retired, or even coaching.

Both clubs have tried to prolong their dynasties by trading out draft picks for mature stars.

Recent Approach
Hawks have recently embraced a traditional rebuild, taking the majority of their picks to the draft and even sought to trade out stars for picks (unsuccessfully).

Cats have continued to double down each year on veterans, and have miraculously been able to money ball themselves into basically being a top 6 team for the entire decade since their last flag in 2011.

Future - Short and Long
Geelong once again seem poised to be a strong team in 2022, although they will probably need a lot of luck to knock off the likes of Melbourne/Port/Brisbane who are still young and improving. Hawks will likely miss finals again, but will be blooding youth as they embrace the rebuild.

Where to from here? Will Geelong be able to forever stay in the top 6 using their strategy and pinch a flag here and there? Or will the Hawks with their well-run club complete the rebuild and be back in the top 4 in a few years time?

With an eye to the future and with the current state of each team’s lists, which one would you say is positioned better at the moment?

 

[deedog2]

 

[Jack Green]

A topic sure to be discussed throughout the coming years is in relation to Geelong and Hawthorn and which club’s future looks to be better positioned to make another tilt for a flag.

Similarities
Both clubs were powerhouses of recent times who have achieved sustained success and multiple flags.

Both clubs have had a changing of the guard, with almost all of those Premiership heroes now retired, or even coaching.

Both clubs have tried to prolong their dynasties by trading out draft picks for mature stars.

Recent Approach
Hawks have recently embraced a traditional rebuild, taking the majority of their picks to the draft and even sought to trade out stars for picks (unsuccessfully).

Cats have continued to double down each year on veterans, and have miraculously been able to money ball themselves into basically being a top 6 team for the entire decade since their last flag in 2011.

Future - Short and Long
Geelong once again seem poised to be a strong team in 2022, although they will probably need a lot of luck to knock off the likes of Melbourne/Port/Brisbane who are still young and improving. Hawks will likely miss finals again, but will be blooding youth as they embrace the rebuild.

Where to from here? Will Geelong be able to forever stay in the top 6 using their strategy and pinch a flag here and there? Or will the Hawks with their well-run club complete the rebuild and be back in the top 4 in a few years time?

With an eye to the future and with the current state of each team’s lists, which one would you say is positioned better at the moment?

Short term next season or two the Cats IMO are better placed. Don't see them pinching a flag , but do see them winning more than half their games [ with 9 at home] to be therabouts.
Hawks less in the win column for the next couple of seasons but then [if they have fully embraced the rebuild with Clarkson's departure which they appear to have done] will pass the Cats on the slide. It's impossible to stay up forever!

 

[Millsie69]

Said in the 2022 predictions thread that Geelong will continue to win enough games at their kidney ground to finish top 8 and potentially even top 4, but as shown by the Qualifying and Prelim finals, they're as much chance of winning a flag anytime soon, as we are.

 

[HairyO]

Said in the 2022 predictions thread that Geelong will continue to win enough games at their kidney ground to finish top 8 and potentially even top 4, but as shown by the Qualifying and Prelim finals, they're as much chance of winning a flag anytime soon, as we are.

They are almost hurt by the home ground advantage given they will rarely get top 5 draft picks.

They need to hope for gems in the rough like Kelly but convert the draft picks wisely.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Hawks for sure..

Eventually Geelong will have to pay the piper for years of neglecting blooding fresh young talent into their club (probably around 2023 or 24)
If they can pinch a flag between now and then it would be worth if, but it's doubtful they will.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Can see this thread turning to crap but on topic...

The answer seems to be fairly obvious in that Cats appear better positioned short term and Hawthorn for the longer term.

What I will say, contrary to expectation, is that Geelong are a fair way ahead now and are in contention for a flag still whilst Hawthorn are working toward being in contention for a flag. Had Hawthorn continued to remain in contention, we too would have likely topped up and lept going as we have been rather than 'embrace the rebuild'. The rebuild happened because our onfield results gave us no choice. Given you can't really predict anything at all more than a couple of years ahead, Geelong are definately in a better position and may in fact remain so.

With that said, one does get the impression Geelong need to win a flag in the very near future as their list is becoming more and more imbalanced in terms of age demographics.

 

[schmuttt]

Geelong will make finals next year, isn’t a rebuild until they stop trying to win the flag.

 

[Jack Green]

Can see this thread turning to crap but on topic...

The answer seems to be fairly obvious in that Cats appear better positioned short term and Hawthorn for the longer term.

What I will say, contrary to expectation, is that Geelong are a fair way ahead now and are in contention for a flag still whilst Hawthorn are working toward being in contention for a flag. Had Hawthorn continued to remain in contention, we too would have likely topped up and lept going as we have been rather than 'embrace the rebuild'. The rebuild happened because our onfield results gave us no choice. Given you can't really predict anything at all more than a couple of years ahead, Geelong are definately in a better position and may in fact remain so.

With that said, one does get the impression Geelong need to win a flag in the very near future as their list is becoming more and more imbalanced in terms of age demographics.

Can see this thread turning to crap.... oh, really
In full agreement there, but it is a great thread.
Suspect like the Hawks at the start of 2020, the Cats will go right to the cliff face trying to snatch a flag, before the inevitable and going back down the long rebuild road! Your right - its the system and in the end your on-field results give you no choice.
Not a question of if but when. When exactly , no -one knows for sure

 

[Sphynx]

Cats will probably finish top 4 again, not sure they have the cattle to overthrow Melbourne and Dogs, both sides only likely to get better.

They are hamstrung a bit by their better senior players being better than Hawthorns current group. There's probably an obligation to "go for it" whilst Danger is still playing OK and obviously after just recruiting someone like Cameron.

The Kelly deal had the potential to supercharge a quick rebuild, however they went and spent most of that draft collateral on Cameron.

A throw at the stumps which if unsuccessful might earn them a stint at the bottom (finally)

Almost incredibly they've gotten older over the trade period. IMO they were the sort of side that should of have a crack at Cerra, an opportunity to improve still, but also start building for the future.

They only have 7 x u/23 players on their list. That has to be very close to an AFL record. On the flip side, they will have 14 x players 30+ next season.


If they jag another flag, they probably wont care, but one of the biggest crash and burns is coming in recent history...

 

[Juddernaut08]

Cats will probably finish top 4 again, not sure they have the cattle to overthrow Melbourne and Dogs, both sides only likely to get better.

They are hamstrung a bit by their better senior players being better than Hawthorns current group. There's probably an obligation to "go for it" whilst Danger is still playing OK and obviously after just recruiting someone like Cameron.

The Kelly deal had the potential to supercharge a quick rebuild, however they went and spent most of that draft collateral on Cameron.

A throw at the stumps which if unsuccessful might earn them a stint at the bottom (finally)

Almost incredibly they've gotten older over the trade period. IMO they were the sort of side that should of have a crack at Cerra, an opportunity to improve still, but also start building for the future.

They only have 7 x u/23 players on their list. That has to be very close to an AFL record. On the flip side, they will have 14 x players 30+ next season.


If they jag another flag, they probably wont care, but one of the biggest crash and burns is coming in recent history...

Will their crash be any worse than Carlton/North/Pies?

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Also, I understand its a theme in a series of threads but I'm not sure "the rebuild of Geelong" has any meaning (yet) given they have not commenced a rebuild (as it is typically understood in a footy sense) in any shape or form. IN fact, they've pretty much gone as hard in the opposite direction as possible.

 

[Jack Green]

Also, I understand its a theme in a series of threads but I'm not sure "the rebuild of Geelong" has any meaning (yet) given they have not commenced a rebuild (as it is typically understood in a footy sense) in any shape or form. IN fact, they've pretty much gone as hard in the opposite direction as possible.

Yep, rebuild will start when the cliff hits like the Hawks . I'm thinking the end of 2022 but it is hard to confidently predict . Their old players are still playing good footy but that can change very quickly.

 

[Sphynx]

Will their crash be any worse than Carlton/North/Pies?

Refer to my previous post.

They have 7 players u/23 on their list and their first pick this season is in at 22.

Jordan Clark was their highest pick (at #15) in the last 8 years.

Nakia Cockatoo was their next earliest from 2013 at #10.

Both gone.

They haven't had a pick inside the top 10 since Selwood 16 years ago.

Speaks volumes for how long they have stayed up through trade and the base they originally built, however most of those sides had a solid base of young players.

The cupboard is literally bare at Geelong, the only way will be to trade their way out of it, if they dip into the draft, it will have to be a full blown rebuild.

 

[Sphynx]

Yep, rebuild will start when the cliff hits like the Hawks . I'm thinking the end of 2022 but it is hard to confidently predict . Their old players are still playing good footy but that can change very quickly.

2023 imo.

2022 will be Selwood's last year, but I doubt they can tell Danger and Cameron they are stripping everything back unless is absolutely obvious. Probably if they miss finals after 2023.

 

[Desync]

Cats will be competitive for the next 2-4 years IMO but I can't see them winning a flag with their current list ( It's a really ******* good list ) but they are only getting older and there are a lot of other really ******* good lists.

Hawthorn aren't as bad as people make it out to be IMO but they are still a long way off, Still closer than Geelong though.

 

[blitzer]

Geelong aren't rebuilding at all. They have rebuilt on the run many times but the upcoming cliff seems a bit different to the ones they've faced before. I believe they will have to do a proper rebuild this time (something that resembles what North did). I don't think they'll get another in prime Dangerfield that opts to go to Geelong on the cheap to keep them as challengers this time around. Also there simply isn't the same quality in players aged 21 to 28 that they had in years previous when they faced similar obstacles.

That being said they may still be able to challenge for a flag next year. I'd bet against it but if you can make top 4 you never know what will happen from there and they have a bloody good record of making top 4.

Hawthorn have only really just committed to a rebuild in the last year. There are some pretty big question marks over them. They have just ousted the most successful coach of the current era in favour of the untried Mitchell. They also went on to suggest senior players were up for grabs in the trade period but there didn't seem to be any serious offers nor any serious interest from those players to leave. Hawks fans would be excited by what they saw towards the end of this year but its hard to say if that was in large part inspired by the players really playing for Clarkson prior to him leaving.

My assessment would be they are just another rebuilding side (so could be better or worse than expected based on the kids development) and the parallels with a side like Collingwood would be closer than a side like Geelong.

 

[Pessimistic]

Is a ‘hard rebuild’ a ‘traditional rebuild as mentioned by the OP?

it’s one form of rebuild but certainly wasn’t traditional before reduced list sizes and priority picks etc. hawks in the eighties just went out and got the best talent they could, it was finances which slowed them down in the nineties

It’ll be interesting to see how hawk, crows, kangas and even pies go in the next few years. None of these teams has intentionally instituted a run at the bottom of the ladder, bu they find themselves there and are making the most if the drafting opportuniity

Sydney didn’t intentionally rebuild and haven’t done for years. They seem to be on the way up

 

[Stratton_Gun]

Cats aren't in as bad a position as most think. Last game of the home and away they were 6 goals up against the Dees. Sure after that it went downhill quickly but still in a better position than the Hawks

Next year Hawthorn will likely be bottom 5
Expect Geelong around the 3-6 mark

 

[HolyWars]

I'm happy we've started to go to the draft over the last couple of seasons. I think we have done well with rebuilding the forward line, and probably one big defender short down back that needs addressing.

The midfield will be what will need to be worked on, over the next couple of seasons imo.

Geelong will make finals over the next couple of years but I feel this year was their last real chance given how even the competition was. I can see Melbourne, Bulldogs, and Port being the clearly in front of them next season with Brisbane again being a good chance. Unfortunately Brisbane has struggled in finals but I think they can turn those fortunes around.

 

[CobberRodgers]

Cats aren't in as bad a position as most think. Last game of the home and away they were 6 goals up against the Dees. Sure after that it went downhill quickly but still in a better position than the Hawks

Next year Hawthorn will likely be bottom 5
Expect Geelong around the 3-6 mark

Depends on what you define as a bad position.

Will Geelong finish higher than Hawthorn in 2021? Absolutely.
Will either team win the flag in 2021? Absolutely not.

You then need to ask if the Cats are a realistic chance of the flag in 2023 or 2024, IMO that's a no as well. Combine that with a severe lack of talented youth on the current list, and slim draft picks this season (likely to be next season as well as they will win enough games to not get a decent pick) and you can understand why people think it.

Absolutely Hawthorn has it's own issues, and seem to have identified them and are planning on rebuilding the list, the Cats I think have backed themselves into a position where they have to go for a flag (you can't sell it to the older players on the list any other way) but are no real chance of it, this then delays the needed list rebuild and digs a deeper hole.

 

[RUNVS]

I think Hawthorn/Sydney/Fremantle are better comparisons as all three were top teams in the 2012 to 2016 period and all three teams have begun a full rebuild. Geelong was also a top team in the above mentioned time frame but they have not even begun their rebuild yet, and they are going to fall hard very soon.

 

[The 747]

Oh another thread on Geelong are going to fall off a cliff...

We aren't rebuilding so pointless comparing us to Hawthorn. just another premise for everybody to post the same old stuff we have been reading since 2011, eventually these posters will be right and crow about it like they managed to predict rain in winter.

 

[Farm Boy]

Hawks are in for a long rebuild. Geelong will remain competitive till 2024-25, then face a decade of pain.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jack Green]

Depends on what you define as a bad position.

Will Geelong finish higher than Hawthorn in 2021? Absolutely.
Will either team win the flag in 2021? Absolutely not.

You then need to ask if the Cats are a realistic chance of the flag in 2023 or 2024, IMO that's a no as well. Combine that with a severe lack of talented youth on the current list, and slim draft picks this season (likely to be next season as well as they will win enough games to not get a decent pick) and you can understand why people think it.

Absolutely Hawthorn has it's own issues, and seem to have identified them and are planning on rebuilding the list, the Cats I think have backed themselves into a position where they have to go for a flag (you can't sell it to the older players on the list any other way) but are no real chance of it, this then delays the needed list rebuild and digs a deeper hole.

From a neutral who supports neither team I think the above is pretty accurate. Is Geelong rebuilding - well not really but put that aside, look at both clubs short to mid term prospects.
Think nearly all neutrals would have their hard earn't on Geelong placing higher on the ladder than the Hawks for the next couple of seasons. 2024 on-wards however , I suspect my $ would be on the Hawks edging past the Cats. In 18 - 24 months months [ maybe sooner] the Cats just have too many players they will have to replace.