Triple J Hottest 100 2023 - Betting Thread.

[ye olde mole]

I'm interested in the thoughts of others regarding this head-to-head matchup - Kill Bill vs Not Strong Enough. NSE has drifted out to $2.85.

Full disclosure - I can't place bets into these markets, but I like keeping my eye on them.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Fred Again to have 6 songs in Countdown $5, to have the most songs in countdown $6……

 

[JT_the_Man]

Fred Again to have 6 songs in Countdown $5, to have the most songs in countdown $6……

Doesn’t even have 6 songs in the voting list to top it all off.

 

[Engimal v3]

Probably the first year that I don't have a clue of even any songs that'll chart. Getting old I guess haha

 

[freo_leo29]

Probably the first year that I don't have a clue of even any songs that'll chart. Getting old I guess haha

It feels like a weird year tbh

Tiktok is kind of changing the landscape of this thing too, as someone that still doesn't have tiktok it makes it a lot harder to bet on

 

[anabac]

Probably the first year that I don't have a clue of even any songs that'll chart. Getting old I guess haha

It happens to us all... Then you get a bit more older and think you'll get back into listening to triple j but you just can't do it

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

Don’t mind the look of one BYO, Billie Eilish to finish above Doja Cat, G Flip, Olivia Rodrigo, Peggy Gou and Benee @4. Its a bit iffy but it’ll be close.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Don’t mind the look of one BYO, Billie Eilish to finish above Doja Cat, G Flip, Olivia Rodrigo, Peggy Gou and Benee @4. Its a bit iffy but it’ll be close.

Was about to go that one until I saw Doja Cat.

If you think anything not named Rhyme Dust/Rush/Paint The Town Red wins they have a BYO for all of them to finish between 2-100. $15, better odds than you can get for The Worst Person Alive to win at least.

 

[ye olde mole]

If you think anything not named Rhyme Dust/Rush/Paint The Town Red wins they have a BYO for all of them to finish between 2-100. $15, better odds than you can get for The Worst Person Alive to win at least.

This was $17...briefly
Not without a chance

 

[ye olde mole]

For those of us keen to have a punt on this - I wanted to highlight the Warm Tuna results from last year. Below are his five songs that he tallied with the most votes, and in brackets are the actual results:

1. Gang of Youths (887 votes) - finished 9th
2. Ball Park Music (807 votes) - finished 8th
3. Flume (746 votes) - finished 1st
4. Spacey Jane (704 votes - finished 3rd
5. Gorillaz and Tame Impala (591 votes) - finished 13th

The song that finished 2nd was tallied to finish 9th and the song that finished 4th was tallied to finish 14th.

I don't want people to think I'm having a go at the Warm Tuna - what he does is utterly awesome and the best guide we have. I just wanted to remind people that were keen to throw some cash at things that it's far from perfect.

 

[JT_the_Man]

This was $17...briefly
Not without a chance

If you’re going to go against the main 3, might as well just back it and give yourself a couple of chances.

 

[JT_the_Man]

For those of us keen to have a punt on this - I wanted to highlight the Warm Tuna results from last year. Below are his five songs that he tallied with the most votes, and in brackets are the actual results:

1. Gang of Youths (887 votes) - finished 9th
2. Ball Park Music (807 votes) - finished 8th
3. Flume (746 votes) - finished 1st
4. Spacey Jane (704 votes - finished 3rd
5. Gorillaz and Tame Impala (591 votes) - finished 13th

The song that finished 2nd was tallied to finish 9th and the song that finished 4th was tallied to finish 14th.

I don't want people to think I'm having a go at the Warm Tuna - what he does is utterly awesome and the best guide we have. I just wanted to remind people that were keen to throw some cash at things that it's far from perfect.

It’s best to use with the normal biases in mind and becoming aware of what normally over/underpolls. For example, Boygenius might be second right now on Tunas but they’ll be lucky to crack the top 10 imo.

Also 5th last year was 16th on Tunas, while 7th was 20th - just to add to your point.

(12th was 53rd and 20th was at checks notes 157th)

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Is it just me or is Rhyme Dust a pretty s**t song.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

It’s best to use with the normal biases in mind and becoming aware of what normally over/underpolls. For example, Boygenius might be second right now on Tunas but they’ll be lucky to crack the top 10 imo.

Also 5th last year was 16th on Tunas, while 7th was 20th - just to add to your point.

(12th was 53rd and 20th was at checks notes 157th)

Warm Tunas definitively overpolls the more Australian indie stuff. The og truiple j demographic if you will

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Is it just me or is Rhyme Dust a pretty s**t song.

There isn’t much in that WT 100 that isn’t s**t. I’d probably put 5 songs out of that 100 on repeat.

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

Is it just me or is Rhyme Dust a pretty s**t song.

I don’t mind my bangers and stuff but yeah it does nothing for me. Doesn’t really feel like a big time number 1 song, I think it’s just the hype around Dom Dolla and the festival crowd that have put it high.

 

[freo_leo29]

Is it just me or is Rhyme Dust a pretty s**t song.

Goes well at a festival

Dom did the festival season so he will poll a bit higher

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

Not bad, we saw how much SZA rose from her predicted spot last year.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

These 2?

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

Looking at 2021s WT predictions, similar vote count (2021 was a few thousand less) and similar numbers towards the top of the count. Comparing favourites, percentages are in fact the same, with Wiggles and Troye Sivan both sitting at 18%, and Kid Laroi and Dom Dolla at 12%.

It’s only one other count at a similar enough size to compare, but it’s interesting. We all know who won that year. Was also the year I won my most money in all the years doing this.

 

[Spanish Sahara]

Looking at 2021s WT predictions, similar vote count (2021 was a few thousand less) and similar numbers towards the top of the count. Comparing favourites, percentages are in fact the same, with Wiggles and Troye Sivan both sitting at 18%, and Kid Laroi and Dom Dolla at 12%.

It’s only one other count at a similar enough size to compare, but it’s interesting. We all know who won that year. Was also the year I won my most money in all the years doing this.

Troye $4.5 on B365 ($4.75 on SB) and Rhyme Dust $5 (B365)

Seem like reasonable odds.

I still fee like Adore you is overs at $19. Everyone I have seen has voted for it.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Troye $4.5 on B365 ($4.75 on SB) and Rhyme Dust $5 (B365)

Seem like reasonable odds.

I still fee like Adore you is overs at $19. Everyone I have seen has voted for it.

I’m starting to get the the feeling adore u has received a massive chunk of votes from the non-WT population. Could easily surpass expectations.

 

[notarobot]

Looking at Sportsbet. Byo options mainly all jokes with no chance except for a handful at low odds, who are requesting these? Position bands for a few songs seem like decent odds and a few head to heads are easy money.

Looking at warm tunas I wouldn't be surprised if the top 5 is actually completely different.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Sprinter vs Lovin On Me, Sprinter was fav up until a couple days ago when it randomly blew out to $2.85. Literally every prediction I’ve seen has Sprinter ahead.

 

[Tandy]

Can't get a read on it at all. I think, sadly I'm ageing out of the station. But I still should be able too hand pick 20 or so songs from the 100 that I enjoy and will then listen to for the next few months.