AFL round 3

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Overrated teams at the moment:

Carlton- I like them but have only beaten middle run teams lions/tigers to date and had an avg pre season.

Richmond- Talked up alot but still unconvincing, shouldnt be 1.27

Port Adelaide- Swans should be shorter than 1.48 to beat them. Have improved on last season but still a bottom 6 team.

Fremantle- A good tam but will be inconsistent

Essendon- Beaten no one special yet and are not top 8 locks in my opinion.

West Coast- great team but yet to prove their legitimacy. wooden spooners ony 18months ago...

Hawthorn- great team but a long way to go yet to win a flag.

Teams not mentioned are either underrated or about right with the public/media.

Agree?
 
Bets im looking to go big on, give me your thoughts...

Collingwood 1-39 $2.80
Sydney h2h in to Geelong h2h $1.73
Brisbane +44.5 $1.91
Gold Coast +58.5 $1.91
West Coast -105.5 $1.91
 
bballscout said:
Overrated teams at the moment:

Carlton- I like them but have only beaten middle run teams lions/tigers to date and had an avg pre season.

Richmond- Talked up alot but still unconvincing, shouldnt be 1.27

Port Adelaide- Swans should be shorter than 1.48 to beat them. Have improved on last season but still a bottom 6 team.

Fremantle- A good tam but will be inconsistent

Essendon- Beaten no one special yet and are not top 8 locks in my opinion.

West Coast- great team but yet to prove their legitimacy. wooden spooners ony 18months ago...

Hawthorn- great team but a long way to go yet to win a flag.

Teams not mentioned are either underrated or about right with the public/media.

Agree?
Click to expand...

How can we not agree, with the evidence that the first two rounds have thrown up you are spot on with everrything.
 

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bballscout said:
Bets im looking to go big on, give me your thoughts...

Collingwood 1-39 $2.80
Sydney h2h in to Geelong h2h $1.73
Brisbane +44.5 $1.91
Gold Coast +58.5 $1.91
West Coast -105.5 $1.91
Click to expand...

I like your Swans into Geelong and I would also throw Brisbane at the line into that multi.
 
i think adelaide have a shot this week against the hawks, line looks tasty...

and if i had $10m, id somehow go long on the weagles... make a cool $100k
 
If Ayce doesn't play this week we are no chance. It would allow Jones to play CHF and give us an option. We should have lost by 10 goals last week. It was only the Crows' poor kicking at goal that kept us in it. We played 1 good quarter.

I can't work out how the Saints lost to Port. Their bottom end players seem to have improved. Geary looks like a whole new player. Milera looks AFL standard. Stanley looks capable.

We're well and truly tanking this year to make sure the Ward compo pick is worth it.
 
My opinion is Fremantle could smash Brisbane by 60+. Getting back Brown means Brisbane will be predictable with their attack. Mc Pharlin will have Brown covered. Black is a "huge" out, Rocklift to get most of the attention now. Barlow will have his 1st start. Nick lower has served his 2 games suspension, also Mundy is most likely will play this week but probably a sub. I will say Merett will go to PAv and MAtguire to Bradley but Brisbane have no one to go with Fyfe. We all know how good a player he is. Freo will win most of the clearance and win the game by a lot.
 
Parlay of the week for me:

Collingwood +9.5
Richmond -16.5
Sydney Win
Melbourne Storms -5.5

@ 6.31

$50 to win 315

Any thoughts?
 
redwallis said:
Elaborate please
I am open to advice, no arrogance here
Click to expand...

Rich 1-39 ($2.20)
Freo 25+ ($1.33)
Hawks 25+ ($1.72)

I know you're a Tigers supporter, but I just couldn't touch that game from a betting perspective. Richmond are probably a 1-39 point better team than Melbourne, but you just don't know with these two teams. Melbourne have been so disgraceful that Richmond could win by 40+. They can also lift and turn things around when it's least expected, and have been known to upset the Tigers before (round four, 2010). On the flip side, Richmond have been competitive in their two losses and could be set for a huge game. They might want to inflict some serious damage on Melbourne and come out with a big, big win. Melbourne also coming back from Perth. Melbourne with a lot more injury problems than Richmond. It could very well spell danger signs for a 1-39 bet.

You're only getting odds of $1.33 on Freo to win by 25+? That is a terrible bet. If I were to do my predictions, I'd only tip Freo to win by three goals. Brisbane with an extra two days break. Freo will be bringing in a couple of underdone players. Brown, although lacking match fitness, usually dominates first game back. In fact, I think he always dominates first game back (not 100%, but I know for a fact he has an excellent record first up). Maybe if you were getting odds of $2 it would be worth a go, but definitely not $1.33. I'd much prefer Brisbane +63.5 if you're after odds of $1.33.

Adelaide have been flying this season. Hawthorn with a mentally and physically exhausting round two match with two fewer days to recover than Adelaide. I just can't see Hawthorn winning by much. Again, you're only getting odds of $1.72 at that line - definitely not worth it. I reckon Hawks will win this one by one goal. Be very wary when backing against a side with their tails up. Hawthorn have been known to get a fright playing at home against interstate sides. Two games that spring to mind are the games against the Perth sides last year.
 
a_fighting_fury said:
IMO Tigers will win this one, Demons losses in Rnds 1 & 2 had nothing to do with Jimmy's funeral that week or WCE smashing sides in the west. They (the Demons) are still learning their new game plan hence likely to be uncompetitive against most sides this season. Add to this their injury list - Jurrah, Sylvia, Moloney (test). By comparison, the Tigers are into their 3rd season now with coach & game plan and with a healthier list (King OUT). This should translate into a win.

Worth betting on.
Click to expand...

Melbourne lost by 170 in a game last year and still beat us. I don't think anyone can be realistically confident enough to take us at $1.25. I'll believe we've improved enough to beat teams like this when I see it.
 
The question to ask about Melbourne is, have they bottomed out yet? In my opinion they really can't get much worse, last week was terrible on all fronts for the club. At some point, they'll trend upwards.

Is it likely to be this week? Nobody knows, but $1.25 for Richmond is very, very short.
 

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Gimp said:
I'd take geelong 100+ before trusting north. We just crumble against quality teams (except hawthorn), until we show something against the big boys, avoid it.
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more with this. North for mine are still an unproven team, and I could easily see this being a blowout. It could also very well be close. I'll be steering clear of this one, that's for sure.
 
Fremantle -17.5 $1.22 (Should account for Brisbane at home comfortably, even a rallied Brisbane shouldnt be able to get within 3 goals of an avg freo)
Essendon -58.5 $1.92 (Gold Coast dont seem capable of kicking scores, although I think home ground here will help them a touch mentally, I still think the Dons are bullish enough to get this line covered easily, could be another blowout. Theyve made it clear the Bombers wont be going soft)
Hawthorn -11.5 $1.36 (I think the Crows romance ends here. I have admired them so far, but a busting Hawks team wanting to get back on the winners list and at home, 2 goals would be a dissapointing win for them)
Geelong WIN $1.20 (It seems like theres quite a bit going against Geelong this week when you compare their game against North, but Geelong are all class and should consolidate this one. Havent touched the line just in case Geelong are a touch worn out and North put a fight, even then I think Cats class will overcome)

My first multi of the week for 2 units, will have a shorter multi once teams come out.

Paying roughly $3.80 but sportsbet dont show odds once the bets placed (if anyone can advise otherwise that'd be great)
 
My main bet for round 3,

Rich Over 15.5pts
with the following to lead at Half Time & Full Time
Essendon
Fremantle
Geelong

@ 2.81, pretty confident in doubling my money and some here, any thoughts?
 
-collingwood under 39.5 @$2.80
-melbourne +50.5 @$1.26
-sydney @$1.47
-fremantle @$1.08
-essendon -20.5 @$1.13
-st kilda @$1.50
-west coast -66.5 @$1.11
-hawthorn @$1.18
-geelong @$1.17

multi at $14.51
 
Jobe Watson said:
TAB Sportsbet offering 6.50 for Fremanlte 60+ in the Exact Winning Margin odds (bet #1875).

Must be a mistake because you can only get $2.50 for the 60 point line in the Winning Margin market (bet #1840).
Click to expand...

Have you placed any bet?
 
iluvparis said:
Can't agree with this - if the Tigers midfield doesn't win the ball then there defence gets absolutely shredded. I don't rate their backline at all. They gave up a ton of cheap goals against the Blue.

Having said that they should easily account for Melbourne this week.
Click to expand...

Defensively as a team i meant.

eg: Hawthorn and Carlton defensively as a team are probably the two best now. However there back 6 (so to speak) aren't considered strong.
 
Jobe Watson said:
TAB Sportsbet offering 6.50 for Fremanlte 60+ in the Exact Winning Margin odds (bet #1875).

Must be a mistake because you can only get $2.50 for the 60 point line in the Winning Margin market (bet #1840).
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's an error.
 
GWS +70.5 @ $5.05

Worsfold said he'd be happy with a 25 point win. He's obviously thinking a week ahead for the Hawthorn game at home. Even if WCE get 85 points clear they should ease up.

One and possibly only game @ Blacktown International which is small and windy.

I can't see "blowout" written all over this.
 
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