The Case for Tasmania

[Kynge of Begrem]

How can being an Aussie rules state count against getting our own team??? If we didnt support the Fly in clubs you would probably say the Tassie shouldnt get a team because we dont support Football. You cant have it both ways.
No its AFL politics, selfish politics at that.

Again, I pose the question 'Why do you think the AFL put new teams into New South Wales and Queensland?'

 

[Tazwegian]

Where do you actually base this information on? The economics behind a Tasmanian team are extremely sound and the club is more financially viable than either of the current expansion teams and a number of existing teams in Melbourne.

I've seen the economic modelling put forward to the AFL and the club would not require AFL assistance to survive unlike a third of the competition now. The would have a ground deal similar to Geelong ($1 rent per year). York Park would be the main ground and would be upgrade to 35,000 which would make it large than Metricon (25,000) and only just smaller than the Gabba (40,000). membership numbers would be substantially higher than either GC or GWS and higher than Brisbane. The estimate was for 27,500 in 5 years. These numbers would also be far more stable than in the northern states.

As far as talking about population growth it is a false statistic. Of the population growth on the Gold Coast how many are actually interested in AFL, let alone would actually turn up to a match? Tasmania is staunchly AFL to a larger extent than any other state in Australia as a percentage of population.

So please provide your economics, because in a national competition where a third of the clubs would be placed into receivership if it wasn't for AFL guarantees Tasmania is a must for a side. My opinion though is that it needs to be a true Tasmania side not a relocation, so merge North Meblourne and the Dogs and bring in a new Tasmanian side.

This guy just destroyed everyone in this thread.

 

[madmug]

Again, I pose the question 'Why do you think the AFL put new teams into New South Wales and Queensland?'

Its called expansion. I dont believe the choice of expansion was between GWS & Tasmania. I see the choice as keeping with 10 teams in Victoria as against having one in Tasmania. A Political decision IMO.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

yes, expansion into predominantly non-australian rules states...

 

[Team DJ]

Melbourne Kangaroos
St Kilda Bulldogs
Tassie Devils
17 team comp
22 Round Season, each team plays 20 games and has 2 byes.
Will strengthen the comp, less draining on players, and 50 less s**t blokes on lists.

 

[Admiral Byng]

I've seen the economic modelling put forward to the AFL and the club would not require AFL assistance to survive unlike a third of the competition now. The would have a ground deal similar to Geelong ($1 rent per year). York Park would be the main ground and would be upgrade to 35,000 which would make it large than Metricon (25,000) and only just smaller than the Gabba (40,000). membership numbers would be substantially higher than either GC or GWS and higher than Brisbane. The estimate was for 27,500 in 5 years. These numbers would also be far more stable than in the northern states.

Soundsa a bit optimistic to me. The population around Launceston and surrounding areas is only around 150,000. That number of members from such a small population base is around 18-20% of the population signing up for memebrships. Seems a bit high to me. 35,000 bums on seats out of a population of 150,000 is nearly a quarter of the whole population. I can understand the argument that Tasmanians are passionate about AFL footy, but I still think those numbers are optimistic.

Unless that 27,500 is split between Hobart and Launcestion with a half membership for each city - it would be the equivalent of 13,750 full memberships over the season.

 

[madmug]

yes, expansion into predominantly non-australian rules states...

Interestingly the GC Suns team is the 2nd AFL try in that area. The Bears failed to make a go of it on the GC despite the large number of southern expats who live & visit the place. I wish them all the luck for their 2nd club.
Its a bit rough that Tasmania cant even get a first go at having a club.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

This guy just destroyed everyone in this thread.

economic modelling put forward by proponents of proposal shows that proposal will work

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

your arguing against one bf posters opinion and assuming then getting riled up that it's the AFLs stance on the matter, which im entirely sure it isn't.

Actually, it does seem to be the AFL's stance. And it is sound reasoning.

The AFL has been looking at clubs to expand the reach of the sport, and increase TV revenues. A Tasmanian team does not do that. More is already taken out of Tasmanian than the state can afford, TV viewing numbers are already higher (per capita) than any other state, and any marginal potential increase that may exist is cut back by incomes being substantially lower than any mainland market and being served by regional networks which of itself lowers the returns.
The complete dearth of sizeable potential secondary sponsors (Gunns was the last ASX200 company to have its base, or any of its decision makers that make corporate boxes a sound investment, in Tasmania).
If the AFL was looking at places to go where there was already solid support, Tasmania's case would be a little stronger (but I still believe fundamentally flawed due to the economics and division of the state). With the AFL looking at growth of both the game and its own revenues rather than stabilisation, Tasmania isn't even an option.

 

[Slax]

Soundsa a bit optimistic to me. The population around Launceston and surrounding areas is only around 150,000. That number of members from such a small population base is around 18-20% of the population signing up for memebrships. Seems a bit high to me. 35,000 bums on seats out of a population of 150,000 is nearly a quarter of the whole population. I can understand the argument that Tasmanians are passionate about AFL footy, but I still think those numbers are optimistic.

Unless that 27,500 is split between Hobart and Launcestion with a half membership for each city - it would be the equivalent of 13,750 full memberships over the season.

There are people who do drive up to Launceston from the Hobart region for matches currently (2 hour drive). All membership figures the AFL publish include partial membership (ie. 4 games memberships) and interestate memberships. If it was a pure Tasmanian team I have no doubt that they would get that number between local and interstate members. Remember Hawthorn has just under 10,000 Tassie members and I'd be willing to bet a vast majority would switch.

As for bums on seats remember the Green Bay Packers have a 75,000 seat stadium, yet the population of the greater Green Bay Wisonsin area is just over 300,000. So with a population in the Launceston area of 150,000 they can support a 35,000 seat stadium.

 

[madmug]

Soundsa a bit optimistic to me. The population around Launceston and surrounding areas is only around 150,000. That number of members from such a small population base is around 18-20% of the population signing up for memebrships. Seems a bit high to me. 35,000 bums on seats out of a population of 150,000 is nearly a quarter of the whole population. I can understand the argument that Tasmanians are passionate about AFL footy, but I still think those numbers are optimistic.

Unless that 27,500 is split between Hobart and Launcestion with a half membership for each city - it would be the equivalent of 13,750 full memberships over the season.

I have always argued that it is really best done by playing games at both Aurora & Boot park. Especially now that Boot Park is to get an upgrade to 20k. That makes membership & attendance at games for the locals much more appealing to many more of them by being closer to the bulk of the population. I think it would attract more interstate visitors as well.
Sydney have quite a few members in Melbourne, As do Brisbane. In the same way a lot of Tasmanians working & living around the nation could become Tasmanian club members as well.

 

[papabear]

If Tasmanians have zero chance of following other sports, why spend AFL money there and use up a spot in the competition for no net gain of supporters when they could get a lot more support by going into new areas.

Tasmanians get what they deserve imo, if you blindly pay the piper dont bitch when the piper doesnt want to feed you.

 

[madmug]

If Tasmanians have zero chance of following other sports, why spend AFL money there and use up a spot in the competition for no net gain of supporters when they could get a lot more support by going into new areas.

Tasmanians get what they deserve imo, if you blindly pay the piper dont bitch when the piper doesnt want to feed you.

Your mixed metaphor & logic astounds me
I think you're confused with, 'he who pays the piper calls the tune' which is the opposite to what you seem to indicate.
In the case for Tasmania & interstate in general, me thinks the AFL want their cake & eat it. ie Run the competition like the old VFL & put up with few interstate hangers on to develop players for the draft & pay the bills!!!

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

if you blindly pay the piper dont bitch when the piper doesnt want to feed you.

lulz.

 

[blaze036]

Your mixed metaphor & logic astounds me
I think you're confused with, 'he who pays the piper calls the tune' which is the opposite to what you seem to indicate.
In the case for Tasmania & interstate in general, me thinks the AFL want their cake & eat it. ie Run the competition like the old VFL & put up with few interstate hangers on to develop players for the draft & pay the bills!!!

do you seriouslly think that or are you just trying to rile up people who dont agree with you about the case for tasmania?...

 

[The_Reaper]

do you seriouslly think that or are you just trying to rile up people who dont agree with you about the case for tasmania?...

Most non Victorians think this.

I wonder why?

 

[madmug]

do you seriouslly think that or are you just trying to rile up people who dont agree with you about the case for tasmania?...

I think its fairly obvious, especially when you stand back a little way, or a long way, from Victoria & have good look at things.
It wasnt too many years ago that the AFL tried to get clubs to amalgamate because their were obviously too many local teams in the growing national competition.
The fact the AFL became shy & gutless over the issue was unfortunate & a missed opporunity for the national game IMO
If that upsets you, thats also unfortunate. But thems the facts as I see 'em.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Most non Victorians think this.

I wonder why?

Poor education standards?

 

[blaze036]

I think its fairly obvious, especially when you stand back a little way, or a long way, from Victoria & have good look at things.
It wasnt too many years ago that the AFL tried to get clubs to amalgamate because their were obviously too many local teams in the growing national competition.
The fact the AFL became shy & gutless over the issue was unfortunate & a missed opporunity for the national game IMO
If that upsets you, thats also unfortunate. But thems the facts as I see 'em.

how on earth can you think killing victorian teams is even remotely good for the competition!??!

 

[madmug]

how on earth can you think killing victorian teams is even remotely good for the competition!??!

If you havent read, or taken any notice of what I & others have said on BF, then I'm not going through it all again.
If you dont think selling games interstate is a sign of severe financial stress on Victorian clubs, then fine, ignore the bleeding obvious.
You still have the VFL, let 1 or 2 of them go & play in that.

 

[blaze036]

If you havent read, or taken any notice of what I & others have said on BF, then I'm not going through it all again.
If you dont think selling games interstate is a sign of severe financial stress on Victorian clubs, then fine, ignore the bleeding obvious.
You still have the VFL, let 1 or 2 of them go & play in that.

Yeah, lets kill saint kilda and north melbourne... what a great decision, you should be the CEO.

The AFL would lose NOTHING and gain SO MUCH thank to this decision.

There are victorian clubs under financial stress, so what? victoria is growing and these clubs all have healthy support and have enough money to be competitive sustaintably. You're tryign to tell us that we should remove clubs when they are under severe financial stress? So i guess we should of removed collingwood and hawthorn who in the past were under huge financial stress in the past? we should also remove GC GWS port bulldogs north saints dees richmond too?

I really hope you become ceo, your idea's will be fantastic for the game.

 

[The_Wookie]

Interestingly the GC Suns team is the 2nd AFL try in that area. The Bears failed to make a go of it on the GC despite the large number of southern expats who live & visit the place. I wish them all the luck for their 2nd club.
Its a bit rough that Tasmania cant even get a first go at having a club.

Not entirely true. The first attempt was a privatgely run consortium that based itself at Carrara and still called itself Brisbane. They were moved to Brisbane by the AFL almost as soon as it came into AFL/club hands permanently (the second time at least).

 

[Kwality]

Yeah, lets kill saint kilda and north melbourne... what a great decision, you should be the CEO.

The AFL would lose NOTHING and gain SO MUCH thank to this decision.

There are victorian clubs under financial stress, so what? victoria is growing and these clubs all have healthy support and have enough money to be competitive sustaintably. You're tryign to tell us that we should remove clubs when they are under severe financial stress? So i guess we should of removed collingwood and hawthorn who in the past were under huge financial stress in the past? we should also remove GC GWS port bulldogs north saints dees richmond too?

I really hope you become ceo, your idea's will be fantastic for the game.

You can do better than this emotional brain burst ... at what cost would you consider reviewing the future of a non performing group of clubs?

 

[Rob]

Where do you actually base this information on? The economics behind a Tasmanian team are extremely sound and the club is more financially viable than either of the current expansion teams and a number of existing teams in Melbourne.

www.abs.gov.au

Knock yourself out.

I've seen the economic modelling put forward to the AFL and the club would not require AFL assistance to survive unlike a third of the competition now. The would have a ground deal similar to Geelong ($1 rent per year). York Park would be the main ground and would be upgrade to 35,000 which would make it large than Metricon (25,000) and only just smaller than the Gabba (40,000). membership numbers would be substantially higher than either GC or GWS and higher than Brisbane. The estimate was for 27,500 in 5 years. These numbers would also be far more stable than in the northern states.

Firstly, i'll point out that i'm not personally opposed to a Tassie team. The point of my recent posts in this thread is to show how much of a mountain they're trying to climb, because these are the things the AFL Commission look at. It's not just about now, it's about 20 or 50 years into the future.

Now, economic modelling is - to put it simply - a hypothetical. Consequently those figures will show whatever you want them to show. You're just inventing figures that are plucked out of thin air. It's fine to say that they'll get 27,500 members, but that doesn't make it fact. Will you really get 27,500 members prepared to pay an average of $350 each? Will you be able to sell 100+ corporate boxes at an average of $50,000 a year? Who knows. But the facts are Tasmanians earn substantially less than anyone else in Australia, and the economy is in a much worse condition than any other state. Sure, you might find 27,500 people prepared to pay $150 for a membership, but would they cough up over double that? Where are the businesses that have the sort of dosh that could pay for a corporate box for the year? Die hard fans might travel from Hobart to Launceston to watch footy, but suits won't. And suits are a massive revenue stream for most clubs - the viable ones anyway.

And one thing is pretty sure - you won't be able to convert many new fans to the game. That's a critical factor when the Commission looks at expansion.

As far as talking about population growth it is a false statistic. Of the population growth on the Gold Coast how many are actually interested in AFL, let alone would actually turn up to a match? Tasmania is staunchly AFL to a larger extent than any other state in Australia as a percentage of population.

So please provide your economics, because in a national competition where a third of the clubs would be placed into receivership if it wasn't for AFL guarantees Tasmania is a must for a side. My opinion though is that it needs to be a true Tasmania side not a relocation, so merge North Meblourne and the Dogs and bring in a new Tasmanian side.

I wish you luck, and genuinely hope you succeed. You're going to need it.

 

[papabear]

Your mixed metaphor & logic astounds me
I think you're confused with, 'he who pays the piper calls the tune' which is the opposite to what you seem to indicate.
In the case for Tasmania & interstate in general, me thinks the AFL want their cake & eat it. ie Run the competition like the old VFL & put up with few interstate hangers on to develop players for the draft & pay the bills!!!

Lol, obviously I changed the metaphor to suit my argumen. Surely your highly logical mind has put that together.

In any event the point remains and you have yet to rebut it.

Use a different company, say coca cola, if they have 100% market share of victoria and victorians have signed in blood that they wont ever drink another cola, where do you think coca cola is going to direct its marketing budget/push, I imagine NSW/QLD/WA/TAS, as there is no point to pump more money into Victoria as they already have the market and it is no threat of going anywhere.

Tasmania wont be getting an AFL team, and considering its small population and pissant growth prospects I cant see any other major competition going there either. Anyways best of luck with your local competitions and everything else you have going for you!