Game Day Round 15 Discussion - MND Challenge Round - Play On

[A Bit Dusty]

Get a room you two

 

[gutsroy]

Every year that I've played I've got at least 2-3 starting premo's wrong. I used to sideways them out when I first started playing but that would nearly always end up biting me on the arse later in the year when I'd run out of trades early and fade badly during SC finals. Then the last few years I've held my dud premo's all year, didn't run out of trades early and finished with pretty decent ranks...but not great ranks due to carrying said duds. It doesn't help matters when you don't nail all your Rd1 rookie selections and you end up using 3-4 early trades on rookie corrections which just means you have fewer trades to sideways/upgrade under performing premo's because there's never enough cash gen. I really need to nail those rookies picks one of these years and the rest will hopefully sort itself out.

I understand what you’re saying and it makes sense.
You got done in by some extreme variance which was basically unidirectional, they all went low.
Sometimes that’s all it is, random variance.
Don’t think it points to any systematic flaw in the way you go about it, you’d be easily top 100 across the last 3-4 years, wouldn’t you?
That’s a more reliable indicator than a single round.
Bad luck, it’s awful when it happens

 

[gutsroy]

2358 saw me drop 250 odd places. Still hanging just outside 1000 and cant seem to get back in.

Did you have the two Dog mids or one and Zorko?
If you didn’t have them and had Stewart, Bolton or crazily even Lloyd this week, that’s kind of all it took, think Botn/ Zorko ownership at the top is fairly high.
If Bont and Zorko keep outperforming their already sky-high prices, others will not be making inroads, I guess.

 

[TempletonTheRat]

think Botn/ Zorko ownership at the top is fairly high

Zorko just under 50% of the top 100 and top 1000

Bont - 54% top 1000 - 61% top 100

 

[Juzzomac]

Every year that I've played I've got at least 2-3 starting premo's wrong. I used to sideways them out when I first started playing but that would nearly always end up biting me on the arse later in the year when I'd run out of trades early and fade badly during SC finals. Then the last few years I've held my dud premo's all year, didn't run out of trades early and finished with pretty decent ranks...but not great ranks due to carrying said duds. It doesn't help matters when you don't nail all your Rd1 rookie selections and you end up using 3-4 early trades on rookie corrections which just means you have fewer trades to sideways/upgrade under performing premo's because there's never enough cash gen. I really need to nail those rookies picks one of these years and the rest will hopefully sort itself out.

I really liked your starting structure this year, and think the overall rank is reflected by it's sound structure. Extra trades doesn't help with that structure though, as one of the main benefits is the trades in the bank come the end of the season which doesn't matter nearly as much now.

This year has been a bit abnormal tbh, between the mid pricers running riot and the extra trades it's made sideways trading very easy.

 

[Andrew Birch]

I understand what you’re saying and it makes sense.
You got done in by some extreme variance which was basically unidirectional, they all went low.
Sometimes that’s all it is, random variance.
Don’t think it points to any systematic flaw in the way you go about it, you’d be easily top 100 across the last 3-4 years, wouldn’t you?
That’s a more reliable indicator than a single round.
Bad luck, it’s awful when it happens

Currently sitting 53rd on HoF 3 year ranking after that shocker round. No data to support it, but I reckon I'd be Top5 over the last 4 years just going by the ranking variance between seasons of the other Top100 HoF teams over the past 3 year average. Doesn't mean there isn't a fundamental flaw in my SC game though, that while consistent doesn't allow for a Top10-100 type season as I'm not a huge risk taker. It's weird because I even changed it up this year by going pure GnR (apart from Ziebell) something I haven't done since my rookie year as I've played MPM/Hybrid for a number of years yet my ranking is almost identical to the previous 3 years playing MPM & Hybrid.

 

[TempletonTheRat]

Currently sitting 53rd on HoF 3 year ranking after that shocker round. No data to support it, but I reckon I'd be Top5 over the last 4 years just going by the ranking variance between seasons of the other Top100 HoF teams over the past 3 year average. Doesn't mean there isn't a fundamental flaw in my SC game though, that while consistent doesn't allow for a Top10-100 type season as I'm not a huge risk taker. It's weird because I even changed it up this year by going pure GnR (apart from Ziebell) something I haven't done since my rookie year as I've played MPM/Hybrid for a number of years yet my ranking is almost identical to the previous 3 years playing MPM & Hybrid.

I was having a look through the HoF the other day

It was very noticeable that it is not easy to continually finish in the Top 1000 year after year - I don't recall how many teams had done it over the last 3 years but it was a lot less than I thought it would be.

 

[Andrew Birch]

I really liked your starting structure this year, and think the overall rank is reflected by it's sound structure. Extra trades doesn't help with that structure though, as one of the main benefits is the trades in the bank come the end of the season which doesn't matter nearly as much now.

This year has been a bit abnormal tbh, between the mid pricers running riot and the extra trades it's made sideways trading very easy.

Thanks Juzz. I stuck to my GnR structure and didn't use any trades on the Jiath's, Tex's, Impey's early on and came into the byes well placed around 500 with trades in hand and an even spread of players across the 3 rounds which would have given me 19 in each round...then the fixture change happened and messed up all my trade plans. I ended up trading out players I hadn't planned to trade out and kept ones i wanted to turf but since their bye suited the amended bye splits. I managed 18 starters and a good score last round, unfortunately in doing so I've also ended up with a less than satisfactory team. That Rd14 bye fiasco really kiboshed my season as I think I was heading towards a personal best season up until then.

 

[gutsroy]

Currently sitting 53rd on HoF 3 year ranking after that shocker round. No data to support it, but I reckon I'd be Top5 over the last 4 years just going by the ranking variance between seasons of the other Top100 HoF teams over the past 3 year average. Doesn't mean there isn't a fundamental flaw in my SC game though, that while consistent doesn't allow for a Top10-100 type season as I'm not a huge risk taker. It's weird because I even changed it up this year by going pure GnR (apart from Ziebell) something I haven't done since my rookie year as I've played MPM/Hybrid for a number of years yet my ranking is almost identical to the previous 3 years playing MPM & Hybrid.

That's where I get what you're saying, but think you're too focused on the downside of not entertaining riskier plays and not on the upside.
You possibly wouldn't be in the range you're in if you more consistently pushed riskier strategies
Think it makes sense to do what is consistently landing you amongst the top handful in the country (top 0.25% sort of range, I guess) than to get too loose in the hope of having a single spike season with a higher likelihood of leaner years in between and the possibility that even when you land the spike, there are just enough other teams out there that put together a year out of the box that you still land just short.
Think your consistent finishes are more evidence that sound decision making wins out in the end over the starting configuration on the MPM vy GNR vs ... front.
SC is basically Steve Bradbury's race spread out over 22 laps, the good decision makers end up on top, the loose units tend to get rekt.
Anyway, I'm meandering again.

 

[dUkezz]

Did Dale just run like 40m without bouncing it? GAGF ya high vis wearing maggots.

Didnt he have like 4 bounces?

He actually had 6 lol

Watch it again. He runs a mile.

 

[mochacinolatte]

Zorko just under 50% of the top 100 and top 1000

Bont - 54% top 1000 - 61% top 100

Im stop gonna stop watching games cause I can't handle coaches not tagging zorko/bont.

 

[TempletonTheRat]

Im stop gonna stop watching games cause I can't handle coaches not tagging zorko/bont.

I'm pretty happy to watch the Bont run around as he pleases - helps my SC side too.

 

[Andrew Birch]

That's where I get what you're saying, but think you're too focused on the downside of not entertaining riskier plays and not on the upside.
You possibly wouldn't be in the range you're in if you more consistently pushed riskier strategies
Think it makes sense to do what is consistently landing you amongst the top handful in the country (top 0.25% sort of range, I guess) than to get too loose in the hope of having a single spike season with a higher likelihood of leaner years in between and the possibility that even when you land the spike, there are just enough other teams out there that put together a year out of the box that you still land just short.
Think your consistent finishes are more evidence that sound decision making wins out in the end over the starting configuration on the MPM vy GNR vs ... front.
SC is basically Steve Bradbury's race spread out over 22 laps, the good decision makers end up on top, the loose units tend to get rekt.
Anyway, I'm meandering again.

Thanks man, I appreciate that. I reckon if I started with 3 teams, 1 GnR, 1 MPM & 1 Hybrid all 3 would finish Top500-600 lol. I can't explain it but I use similar tactics throughout the year in all 3 SC/AF/DT and over 4 years I've only ended up with 1 out of 12* final ranks higher than 1k and that was a 2.8k AF rank in 2019 so there must be must be doing something right, although I hardly ever watch TV or go to games so I often miss players that 'pass the eye test' that you and others talk about and don't catch the breakouts when they're happening.

There was a young fella who won both SC & DT in the same season about 7-8 years ago, won in a landslide...by 1k points IIRC who apparently didn't even like footy and was a bit of a maths geek. Then there's Selby? who won AF 2 years in a row, so there is definitely a secret formula to success in Fantasy footy however the magic formula changes from year to year.

 

[hoddo]

View attachment 1166347

He may not have scored a goal or behind but for SC he may as well have. Those bounces should have netted him 12 points. No sure how much the handball would have added, being backwards.

 

[Santoz]

Anyone interested in hearing how I finish around 10-15k each and every season?

 

[A Bit Dusty]

Thanks man, I appreciate that. I reckon if I started with 3 teams, 1 GnR, 1 MPM & 1 Hybrid all 3 would finish Top500-600 lol. I can't explain it but I use similar tactics throughout the year in all 3 SC/AF/DT and over 4 years I've only ended up with 1 out of 12* final ranks higher than 1k and that was a 2.8k AF rank in 2019 so there must be must be doing something right, although I hardly ever watch TV or go to games so I often miss players that 'pass the eye test' that you and others talk about and don't catch the breakouts when they're happening.

There was a young fella who won both SC & DT in the same season about 7-8 years ago, won in a landslide...by 1k points IIRC who apparently didn't even like footy and was a bit of a maths geek. Then there's Selby? who won AF 2 years in a row, so there is definitely a secret formula to success in Fantasy footy however the magic formula changes from year to year.

When did you trade out Grundy?

 

[Andrew Birch]

When did you trade out Grundy?

In Rd13 for Whitfield then used the 120k profit to turn May into Merrett in Rd14. Will trade him back in this week for Heppell.

 

[A Bit Dusty]

In Rd13 for Whitfield then used the 120k profit to turn May into Merrett in Rd14. Will trade him back in this week for Heppell.

Heppell has been great the last 5 rounds I don't know what to do with him I had him at M9 this week with 120 just sitting there FFS. I want to trade out Taranto and maybe keep Hep at M8 but I have bigger problems at the moment up forward and not sure what to do. I am actually considering doing 2 trades this week Taranto>Isaac Smith and Impey>Danger. Smith seems to be getting more of the ball with Duncan out of the picture.

 

[JuddgementDay]

Anyone interested in hearing how I finish around 10-15k each and every season?

I am, how do you achieve such lofty rank and so consistently too?

 

[Andrew Birch]

Heppell has been great the last 5 rounds I don't know what to do with him I had him at M9 this week with 120 just sitting there FFS. I want to trade out Taranto and maybe keep Hep at M8 but I have bigger problems at the moment up forward and not sure what to do. I am actually considering doing 2 trades this week Taranto>Isaac Smith and Impey>Danger. Smith seems to be getting more of the ball with Duncan out of the picture.

Smith's been good but his ceiling is still pretty low.

I would do Hepp > Danger this week if I were you.

 

[Andrew Birch]

Anyone interested in hearing how I finish around 10-15k each and every season?

Cocktailing benzo's and booze? Starting with Hunter Clark and Brodie Smith types?

 

[TheRednWhite]

Losing hope this season....is it even possible for me to move up in ranks anymore? I was KOTD this week: no LLoyd, no Stew, no Gimpey, got a good Steele VC, SP Highmore delivered, benched Crippled.

Only real shockers were Peeney and Weightman

But still only scored 2357 and went down 100 spots.

No Zorko and the real killer, no Bont....Bont just taking the piss now, and I can't get him.

Team below for reference, after doing Weight to Danger via Cripps downgrade

D: Whit, May, Short, Helmet, Ridley, SP Highmore
M: Crae, Steele, Oliver, Laird, Zerrett, Jelly, Neale, Taranto
R: Gawn, Grundy
F: Hall, Ziegull, Dusty, Danger, Peeney, CCJ

Flynn to Marshall final upgrade

Currently ranked a measly 9.5k, am I going up at all if I don't have Bont or Zorko?

edit: after getting Marshall, I still need to upgrade SP Highmore to Lloyd

 

[JuddgementDay]

That's where I get what you're saying, but think you're too focused on the downside of not entertaining riskier plays and not on the upside.
You possibly wouldn't be in the range you're in if you more consistently pushed riskier strategies
Think it makes sense to do what is consistently landing you amongst the top handful in the country (top 0.25% sort of range, I guess) than to get too loose in the hope of having a single spike season with a higher likelihood of leaner years in between and the possibility that even when you land the spike, there are just enough other teams out there that put together a year out of the box that you still land just short.
Think your consistent finishes are more evidence that sound decision making wins out in the end over the starting configuration on the MPM vy GNR vs ... front.
SC is basically Steve Bradbury's race spread out over 22 laps, the good decision makers end up on top, the loose units tend to get rekt.
Anyway, I'm meandering again.

The starting team matters and how you set it up, also reflect how you end up trading too.

If you are going MPM, you are generally more risky of a player vs a GNR team.
So you end up burning more trades, as you try to get more potential BO players.

Of course, luck has a lot to do with it as well.
As injuries and team selection often influences your trades - well, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

I'm a bit confused by Andrew Birch - I'm not too sure how he switches his thinking from one season to another and still get the results; and all of that without watching too much footy!

 

[CROW in BALI]

.

Anyone interested in hearing how I finish around 10-15k each and every season?

No , but haven’t had a good gif from you for a while

 

[Andrew Birch]

I'm a bit confused by Andrew Birch - I'm not too sure how he switches his thinking from one season to another and still get the results; and all of that without watching too much footy!

footywire for stats and bigfooty sc forum for "the vibe" is all you need JD!