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Recent content by dclaz

  1. dclaz

    AFL Power Rankings 2014

    So true :D
  2. dclaz

    Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

    Love the work Final Siren. Next year I'm going to have a bash at modelling offence and defence to see if I can estimate victory probabilities.
  3. dclaz

    AFL Power Rankings 2014

    I applaud your efforts Final Siren, but I'm afraid there is no room for logic in this thread.
  4. dclaz

    AFL Power Rankings 2014

    rofl :rolleyes:
  5. dclaz

    AFL Power Rankings 2014

    Indeed. However your table is far more interpretable than my silly graph. I should work on that :)
  6. dclaz

    AFL Power Rankings 2014

    You can definitely get higher than the 'optimal tipping rate' but that just means you got lucky OR the season had lots of easier to predict matches. Or maybe both. The optimal tipping rate represents how much you can 'expect' to get right.
  7. dclaz

    AFL Power Rankings 2014

    I've done a little experimental work, and it looks like ~75% or so is pretty much the optimal tipping rate. See http://greenovalfund.wordpress.com/optimal-tipping-rates-or-how-random-are-afl-match-outcomes/
  8. dclaz

    Who will round out the 8? (6-8)

    http://greenovalfund.wordpress.com/final-8-predictions-2014/ My simulations suggest North, Pies and GC is the most likely. West Coast have no chance.
  9. dclaz

    AFL Power Rankings 2014

    So he's legit posting a profit?
  10. dclaz

    AFL Power Rankings 2014

    The one thing about those predictions is that I think the model hasn't caught up with how good Sydney might really be at the moment. :o
  11. dclaz

    AFL Power Rankings 2014

    I thought maybe this might be of interest to some. Given the current ladder and future fixture, I used my model to make predictions on the remaining games. This was done 10^5 times to obtain a good distribution of results. The current ratings: http://i.imgur.com/N8U4XRZ.png The predicted...
  12. dclaz

    AFL Power Rankings 2014

    My simple model which only really cares about current rating and home/away got 145/198. A lot of the stuff you consider important is just noise, or not larger in effect size than the inherent randomness in football.
  13. dclaz

    AFL Power Rankings 2014

    I thought so too.
  14. dclaz

    AFL Power Rankings 2014

    so how many did you tip correctly last year?
  15. dclaz

    AFL Power Rankings 2014

    swiftdog, have you ran the Colley system through all of last seasons matches to see what sort of results it gives? Or rather, train it on 2012 data, and run it though 2013 data and checked the classification rate (or binomial deviance if you're stats/mathematically inclined)
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