Preview Horse Racing - Spring Carnival 2016

[Temploar]

True.
Whilst I'm in the camp they are racehorses so they should race, she had a slight soreness so missing the $2 m Stakes race on last day is understandable.

Yeah I heard about that.

Props to all connections involved looking after the horse's welfare instead of having their eyes solely on the prize.

(Also now everyone else gets a chance at the emirates stakes!)

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Yeah I heard about that.

Props to all connections involved looking after the horse's welfare instead of having their eyes solely on the prize.

(Also now everyone else gets a chance at the emirates stakes!)

Good decision.

 

[Leviathan Pie]

Where Maybe Diva has an advantage over Winx was she has done the three peat so Winx has to do that still, she might at that.
Plus Makybe Diva also won the Cox Plate as well plus the BMW.
Plus Australia Cup in world record time for grass.

Then there was Black Caviar.....

We've seen the greatest ever sprinting mare, middle-distance mare, and staying mare all within the last 15 years.

Comparing them is null and void, in my opinion. All three are champions (and the greatest in their categories) and yet entirely different.

 

[Leviathan Pie]

3 in a row is Kingston Town territory. Do that and she's gotta be in the conversation. I didn't have a punt on the Cox Plate. Just watched and hoped that I would see exactly what she did. A smashing. It was an awesome sight. Up there with Might & Powers 97 (?) Caulfield Cup. Breathtaking.

Here's putting it into perspective what she did Saturday, there were TWO 2040m races on the card.

The second was won by Sacred Elixir in a nice Derby trial (don't think he wins it though), chased the line in good fashion recording 36.39 L600m split (overall 2.10.94).

Winx won the Cox Plate in 2.06.35, and came home off murderous tempo in 37.31 L600m. Despite a slower 600m by 6 lengths, she overall would have beaten Sacred Elixir by THIRTY (30) LENGTHS!

It's just unbelievable the ratings/numbers she produces, it defies belief.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

And since we've done the best female sprinter, middle distance and stayer in our period whom are the male equivalents?

Of the last few decades, so I don't recall VAIN, I'd go for something like:

Sprinting: Manikato
Middle Distance: Kingston Town
Stayer: Might And Power

something like that, but be interesting what people think say 70s onwards....

 

[Temploar]

Woo! Godolphin are in form!

Set me up with some nice little play money for Saturday.

Spewin' I took the fixed though.

 

[theprospect]

Going to Derby Day this Saturday, I'm more of a casual punter and mainly just look at recent form when betting on horses, anyone have any good tips for any of the races though? Or any that might be good value? I like He's Our Rokkii in Race 8, outside of that I'm not too sure who to jump on though (apart from Sacred Elixir in the Derby). Cheers!

 

[Temploar]

Going to Derby Day this Saturday, I'm more of a casual punter and mainly just look at recent form when betting on horses, anyone have any good tips for any of the races though? Or any that might be good value? I like He's Our Rokkii in Race 8, outside of that I'm not too sure who to jump on though (apart from Sacred Elixir in the Derby). Cheers!

I'll write up a form guide and my selections when I get time. Next couple of days.

I had a great time punting on derby day last year. My favourite day for punting!

Hope you have a great time going.

 

[theprospect]

I'll write up a form guide and my selections when I get time. Next couple of days.

I had a great time punting on derby day last year. My favourite day for punting!

Hope you have a great time going.

Thanks man, keen to see what you think! Cheers, yeah I've been the last couple of years, no real luck on the punt though - won $700 from bonus bets on Oaks Day last year though, that set me up perfectly for Falls Festival so I'm hoping Derby Day can set me up nicely for something this year

 

[Temploar]

Well this is a joke.

Put a lot of money on D B Pin in happy valley, Hong Kong. because I had strong mail from a mate I met online who closely follows HK racing. and the horse won easy by 5 lengths.

Then they realise the barriers didn't open properly for all horses and made the race a false start and voided my win!

They realise this AFTER the race!

When does this ******* happen?

Now I've got $150 floating in my account that I can't withdraw at all. How dare they take a ******* win away after the race has been done....

Don't think I'll bet in Hong Kong again lol

 

[Leviathan Pie]

Well this is a joke.

Put a lot of money on D B Pin in happy valley, Hong Kong. because I had strong mail from a mate I met online who closely follows HK racing. and the horse won easy by 5 lengths.

Then they realise the barriers didn't open properly for all horses and made the race a false start and voided my win!

They realise this AFTER the race!

When does this ******* happen?

Now I've got $150 floating in my account that I can't withdraw at all. How dare they take a ******* win away after the race has been done....

Don't think I'll bet in Hong Kong again lol

I feel your pain (was watching and staked 3 in the race), Temploar.

Unfortunately, they deem not every runner to have had equal opportunity. Its a terrible experience when you're on the eventual winner on to find out the race has been deemed a non-event!

 

[Leviathan Pie]

Going to Derby Day this Saturday, I'm more of a casual punter and mainly just look at recent form when betting on horses, anyone have any good tips for any of the races though? Or any that might be good value? I like He's Our Rokkii in Race 8, outside of that I'm not too sure who to jump on though (apart from Sacred Elixir in the Derby). Cheers!

HEY DOC in R1 is a ratings moral, his Caulfield Guineas run was just enormous and is easily good enough to account for an even bunch.

DONT DOUBT MAMMA (R6) has been set for Myer, plenty of speed engaged and wide draw suits her pattern. She'll get back and be rocketing home over the top of them.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Well this is a joke.

Put a lot of money on D B Pin in happy valley, Hong Kong. because I had strong mail from a mate I met online who closely follows HK racing. and the horse won easy by 5 lengths.

Then they realise the barriers didn't open properly for all horses and made the race a false start and voided my win!

They realise this AFTER the race!

When does this ******* happen?

Now I've got $150 floating in my account that I can't withdraw at all. How dare they take a ******* win away after the race has been done....

Don't think I'll bet in Hong Kong again lol

The punt giveth
The punt taketh away
Blessed be the punt

 

[vjknight]

Well this is a joke.

Put a lot of money on D B Pin in happy valley, Hong Kong. because I had strong mail from a mate I met online who closely follows HK racing. and the horse won easy by 5 lengths.

Then they realise the barriers didn't open properly for all horses and made the race a false start and voided my win!

They realise this AFTER the race!

When does this ******* happen?

Now I've got $150 floating in my account that I can't withdraw at all. How dare they take a ******* win away after the race has been done....

Don't think I'll bet in Hong Kong again lol

https://www.newspapers.com/newspage/124654257/

Share my pain.

 

[Maggie5]

Well this is a joke.

Put a lot of money on D B Pin in happy valley, Hong Kong. because I had strong mail from a mate I met online who closely follows HK racing. and the horse won easy by 5 lengths.

Then they realise the barriers didn't open properly for all horses and made the race a false start and voided my win!

They realise this AFTER the race!

When does this ******* happen?

Now I've got $150 floating in my account that I can't withdraw at all. How dare they take a ******* win away after the race has been done....

Don't think I'll bet in Hong Kong again lol

Yuk, watched that race, saw that the horse in the inside gate missed the start but switched channels so didn't realise what had happened. The winner was miles too good.
You deserve a good Saturday.
http://www.racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/AllForm.aspx?Key=2016Oct29,VIC,Flemington&recentForm=N
Found this link from another forum, very extensive form guide.

 

[Temploar]

Yuk, watched that race, saw that the horse in the inside gate miss the start but switched channels so didn't realise what ha happened. The winner was miles too good.
You deserve a good Saturday.
http://www.racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/AllForm.aspx?Key=2016Oct29,VIC,Flemington&recentForm=N
Found this link from another forum, very extensive form guide.

Haha thanks Maggie. Last night was awful. I woke up with it being the first thing on my mind.

It's not often that the $450 you've won on a horse race ceases to exist because of a bloody false start. Especially a flat thoroughbred race.

I normally have my Saturday selections done by Friday afternoon.

I promised nagnator I'd post them here.

Hopefully we can all clean the bookies up on Saturday! Cmon!

 

[Saintly Viewed]

The way the field would look if it was declared all up today, I've adjusted the weight to what it will be currently by raising them all by 1 kg, noting the Lexus winner can be bumped into the field.

Melbourne Cup 2016

1. BIG ORANGE 57
2. OUR IVANHOWE 57
3. CURREN MIROTIC 56.5
4. BONDI BEACH 56
5. EXOSPHERIC 56
6. HARTNELL 56
7. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN 56
8. WICKLOW BRAVE 56
9. ALMOONQITH 54.5
10. GALLANTE 54.5
11. GRAND MARSHAL 54.5
12. JAMEKA 54.5
13. HEARTBREAK CITY 54
14. SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD 54
15. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE 53.5
16. TALLY 53.5
17. REAL LOVE 53
18. ALMANDIN 52
19. ASSIGN 52
20. BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE 52
21. GREY LION 52
22. SECRET NUMBER 52
23. PENTATHLON 51.5
24. QEWY 51.5

******************************************************

OCEANOGRAPHER 51
ROSE OF VIRGINIA 51
VENGEUR MASQUE 51

----------------------------------
Not qualified need to run top 3 in Lexus to qualify but need a win which gets them in automatically

DE LITTLE ENGINE 51
THE BANDIT 51
TOM MELBOURNE 51

 

[Saintly Viewed]

The way the field would look if it was declared all up today, I've adjusted the weight to what it will be currently by raising them all by 1 kg, noting the Lexus winner can be bumped into the field.

Melbourne Cup 2016

1. BIG ORANGE 57
2. OUR IVANHOWE 57
3. CURREN MIROTIC 56.5
4. BONDI BEACH 56
5. EXOSPHERIC 56
6. HARTNELL 56
7. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN 56
8. WICKLOW BRAVE 56
9. ALMOONQITH 54.5
10. GALLANTE 54.5
11. GRAND MARSHAL 54.5
12. JAMEKA 54.5
13. HEARTBREAK CITY 54
14. SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD 54
15. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE 53.5
16. TALLY 53.5
17. REAL LOVE 53
18. ALMANDIN 52
19. ASSIGN 52
20. BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE 52
21. GREY LION 52
22. SECRET NUMBER 52
23. PENTATHLON 51.5
24. QEWY 51.5

******************************************************

OCEANOGRAPHER 51
ROSE OF VIRGINIA 51
VENGEUR MASQUE 51

----------------------------------
Not qualified need to run top 3 in Lexus to qualify but need a win which gets them in automatically

DE LITTLE ENGINE 51
THE BANDIT 51
TOM MELBOURNE 51

Folks for those interested in such things, the order of saddlecloth is determined by weight carried ie the higher the weight the smaller number saddlecloth so if only one horse carries say 58kg they are the top weight and carry the Number One saddlecloth (in America it's the barriers by the way.)

But if say there are two horses on the same weight the order is then

For handicaps (like the Melbourne Cup) its simple alphabetic placement.

Eg:

1. BIG ORANGE 57
2. OUR IVANHOWE 57

As B is before O in the names Big Orange carries the top weight saddlecloth 1.

I'd prefer it to be like weight for age (Cox plate) or set weight (vic Derby) based on applicable prize money.

 

[Maggie5]

Okay guys, need some tips for Saturday, please.
Only proviso I have because I bet each way and don't like losing, needs to be 4/1 or better, thanks in advance.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Okay guys, need some tips for Saturday, please.
Only proviso I have because I bet each way and don't like losing, needs to be 4/1 or better, thanks in advance.

Can not promise no losing

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Can not promise no losing

Maggie5 really like Astern tomorrow in the Coolmore but I imagine will be favourite.
The logical favourite in Derby is Sacred Elixar but for athrow at the stumps Prized Icon might go ok too. Was dissapointed for a run last week and when he did get to run, went ok.

Promises to be a great days racing tomorrow

 

[The Dawes]

Okay guys, need some tips for Saturday, please.
Only proviso I have because I bet each way and don't like losing, needs to be 4/1 or better, thanks in advance.

I'm really on a hiding to nothing doing this, but with that disclaimer out of the way, my strategy tomorrow involves trying to find horses at odds between $10-$25 and backing them each way. There's huge depth in most races and you often find horses winning at double figure odds on these sorts of days.
Maybe even one decent priced winner = profit.

Race 1 - wraps on the Sydney horse Bezel @ $7.5, but I reckon Violate @ $21 can also run well.
Race 2 - Bella Sorellastra @ $11 - also part-owned by former pies premiership player Michael Christian.
Race 3 - keen on Chloe in Paris @ $13, also Vezelay $17 has a sneaky chance
Race 4 - not fussed by the race but Pentathlon @ $26 looks overs based on last week's run.
Race 5 - high quality field but given the strategy would have to back Russian Revolution @ $10.
Race 6 - keen on Don't Doubt Mamma, but for extra value try Heavens Above @ $17 - very tough race though
Race 7 - favourite aside it's incredibly open & I still like Captain Duffy on his huge Geelong win - should stay the trip @ $18 and maybe Kent for the place @ $8.50 ($31 win if you're keen)
Race 8 - another toughy. Don't mind Thunder Fantasy @ $17, also Hopfgarten @ $15 and Stratum Star looks overs @ $26
Race 9 - if you're not busking at the front gates, maybe We've Got This @ $7.50, bit short for me, but the place betters friend Dibayani might sneak into third and is currently $5 the place.

Apologies for naming so many, but with the depth in each race, I'd be very surprised if it was a favourite's day so it makes sense to me to look for some longer priced neddies... although I have been wrong once or twice before.

Note to self, must remember to bring harmonica for potential post-races busking gig.....

 

[Maggie5]

I'm really on a hiding to nothing doing this, but with that disclaimer out of the way, my strategy tomorrow involves trying to find horses at odds between $10-$25 and backing them each way. There's huge depth in most races and you often find horses winning at double figure odds on these sorts of days.
Maybe even one decent priced winner = profit.

Race 1 - wraps on the Sydney horse Bezel @ $7.5, but I reckon Violate @ $21 can also run well.
Race 2 - Bella Sorellastra @ $11 - also part-owned by former pies premiership player Michael Christian.
Race 3 - keen on Chloe in Paris @ $13, also Vezelay $17 has a sneaky chance
Race 4 - not fussed by the race but Pentathlon @ $26 looks overs based on last week's run.
Race 5 - high quality field but given the strategy would have to back Russian Revolution @ $10.
Race 6 - keen on Don't Doubt Mamma, but for extra value try Heavens Above @ $17 - very tough race though
Race 7 - favourite aside it's incredibly open & I still like Captain Duffy on his huge Geelong win - should stay the trip @ $18 and maybe Kent for the place @ $8.50 ($31 win if you're keen)
Race 8 - another toughy. Don't mind Thunder Fantasy @ $17, also Hopfgarten @ $15 and Stratum Star looks overs @ $26
Race 9 - if you're not busking at the front gates, maybe We've Got This @ $7.50, bit short for me, but the place betters friend Dibayani might sneak into third and is currently $5 the place.

Apologies for naming so many, but with the depth in each race, I'd be very surprised if it was a favourite's day so it makes sense to me to look for some longer priced neddies... although I have been wrong once or twice before.

Note to self, must remember to bring harmonica for potential post-races busking gig.....

Cheers for these, will buy the paper and consider them all.

At this stage I am liking the following, so might add yours for quinella.

R2 Sebring Dream
R4 De Little Engine
R7 Saracino

Let me know where you will be busking if things go wrong and I will drop around, hopefully it is not the case though.

I love this time of year.

 

[Temploar]

Alright! A little later than I usually do it but I've been busy today.

Better late than never. nanganator

My thoughts and selections for Saturday @ Flemington.

Track: Likely Good(4)

Race 1: 11:45AM The Carbine Club Stakes (1600 METRES)

Lots of Sydneysiders in this race. Most of them are among the chances.

HEY DOC is in top form, ran a strong race in the Caulfield Guineas last start. But that also means he gets a top weight in this handicap, 1.5kg up from his last start where he carried 56.5kg. The rest of the field in this race are carrying 56kg. Barrier 12 is a worry too, he'll have to try to cross over early or risk being caught out as he likes to race on speed. Can't knock his form though.

BEZEL has a bit of value to it, highly respected Godolphin stable with James McDonald on board. Barrier 6 no issue, JMac will take him to around 4th spot and he'll get a nice sit on the outside. Bred for this distance and a good win at Randwick 2 weeks ago when carrying 61kg. Gets a 5kg relief on that effort and with a good run behind the leaders, he is my top selection.

ACATOUR had a tough run last start. Forgive. His best is good enough here. Prior to that he was running very well in Sydney.

MORTON'S FORK got a shocking run last race, forgive that. Talented horse, could surprise here.

Lots of money coming for COMIN' THROUGH, starting at $8.50 and now into $5. Respect the Waller stable's betting moves. First time at this distance, trained here though. Look for any more money on race day.

Verdict: Close between BEZEL, ACATOUR and HEY DOC, I've gone with BEZEL as my top pick in a wide open affair.

MORTON'S FORK could surprise. Keep safe.

Race 2: 12:20PM Mumm Wakeful Stakes (2000 METRES)

Not very enthusiastic about this race.

MISSROCK has been disappointing this prep. Is the classiest runner and think she'll be at her fittest for this run. Her best is over 1200-1400m. Not sure she can do this distance. Has been going for longer distances every race lately. Think this is out of her league again but I wouldn't be surprised if she does something special.

TIAMO GRACE should have won last start, gets a decent barrier and if she can stay in touch with the leaders throughout the race she will be strong on the turn.

I like SEBRING DREAM, her form this prep reads poorly but I think she will be strong at this distance getting back in the field from her wide gate and expect to see her strong at the finish line.

Verdict: Backing in SEBRING DREAM each way.

Race 3: 1:00PM Sensis Stakes (1100 METRES)

Geez, many chances in this race.

SHEIDEL burned me 2 starts ago where she just got nabbed. Much much better last start.

PALAZZO PUBBLICO has value to it. Won at similar odds last start and Steven Arnold retains the ride. I like it for value.

CHLOE IN PARIS likes Flemington. 3rd up she'll be at her fittest. Big watch.

WILD RAIN, RULE THE RIVER, SUPER CASH, VIDDORA all chances.

Verdict: In a wide open race I'm putting SHEIDEL on top but will probably stay out of this race.


Race 4: 1:40PM Lexus Stakes (2500 METRES)

The first of the big ones!

TOM MELBOURNE has been disappointing lately, expecting him to be back to his best here with a bold run last start.

REAL LOVE can beat this field. Drops back in grade a fair bit and was not disgraced in the Caulfield cup, just copped a poor ride.

However, OCEANOGRAPHER is my best bet of the day. Was flying in the last 200m in the Geelong cup. Ridden a touch closer in this race, with the extra 100m, on a wide flemington track, he will get there. Gets Kerrin McEvoy who has been riding in peak form, and the Godolphin stable is also in peak form. It's a sweet combination and OCEANOGRAPHER will enjoy this track too. Shame he's fallen into $2.40, would have loved to of loaded up on him when he was $3.00. Best of the day like I said.

Verdict: Load up on the Godolphin horse, OCEANOGRAPHER!

Race 5: 2:25PM Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200 METRES)

I am disappointed that CAPITALIST got scratched, I would have loved to of seen him run. I like him.

It's a cracker of a race though.

EXTREME CHOICE looks set for this off a dominant win against older horses first up. Hard to knock. In fact, can't knock him.

ASTERN, RUSSIAN REVOLUTION, STAR TURN, FLYING ARTIE will all be up there.

Verdict: Pretty confident with Extreme Choice though. Get into him! Great horse and Mick Price has him set to take this one out.

Race 6: 3:05PM Myer Classic (1600 METRES)

WHISPERING BROOK has been toiling away with huge weights for a Filly yet she hasn't disgraced herself as of late. With 49kg in this race she will not know herself. Expecting a big big big run.

Think EURO ANGEL has been showing a lot of promise lately and gets Zac Purton on board who is in form right now. Will fight out the placings.

FIRST SEAL will be at her peak and looks to be at the right age to take this race out. Expect her to be a warm favourite.

Verdict: After picking 2 favourites in a row the last 2 races, going for some value here with EURO ANGEL @11/3.6 each way. Too good odds to knock.

Race 7 - 3:50PM AAMI Victoria Derby (2500 METRES)

THE BIG ONE! (Until Tuesday at least)

Sticking with my original bet of SWEAR. Glad I got him at $13 as he has tumbled into $8.50 the last few days. Ran very strongly only just beaten by Yankee Rose last start, and we know how good her run was in the Cox Plate. The form line holds up for this. He'll be in the finish and might still be worth a punt each way for anyone looking at that path.

SACRED ELIXIR is the favourite for a reason, back to his best, super 3 year old and has been set up for this race all prep. Going to be very hard to beat and I can justify his favouritism. Big run last start and will be at his fittest.

Think that WINE BUSH can surprise into the placings, Joao Moreira is in top form and gets the ride here for Chris Waller. He worked hard last start so you can forgive him for the run. Will enjoy the space of this track. Watch.

BEACH LIFE went way too early last start, if he gets a better run he will be thereabouts.

Verdict: I have already had a punt on SWEAR, And I really think it's either him or SACRED ELIXIR that will take this one out.


Race 8: 4:35PM Cantala Stakes (1600 METRES)

THE UNITED STATES was withdrawn out of the Melbourne Cup for a crack at this, suggesting he's ready to win it. Super effort last start and he must have pulled up OK to go around again.

HE'S OUR ROKKII has the jets on this prep, cannot knock him at all. Needs cover from the wide gate but if he gets it, then geez he will be there all the way I reckon.

PALENTINO good win 2 runs back and then was awful in Sydney last start. Willing to forgive, he loves Flemington and is 2-2-0-0 at this track/dist combo. We know what he is capable of. BIG WATCH.

I like these three, however there's also VOODOO LAD, SEABURGE, and MACKINTOSH that can give a sight.

Verdict: Box Trifecta 1-2-4 but if I had to pick one then I'll go for the flying HE'S OUR ROKKII

Race 9: 5:20PM TAB.com.au Stakes (1200 METRES)

The get out stakes. Load up on KEEN ARRAY should you need to risk it.
Both horse and Jockey are in the form of their lives.

COUNTERATTACK has been very disappointing lately but gets the blinkers back on I believe and could surprise.

Think that SOUTHERN LEGEND can run a big race with the 54.5kg

Verdict: KEEN ARRAY all day.

 

[Temploar]

Keen to see Miss Vista go around tonight at the Valley.

Beautiful looking horse.