Analysis A statistical look at list management

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Bazz_27

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Sep 14, 2009
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I read a tweet this morning that north are the 8th most experienced side this week and it made me curious as to where our team sits (considering our inability to stop big flows of goals against this season especially). So I thought I would look at the data:




Age yearsAge MonthsAge rankGamesGames rank
Tigers
27​
172​
1​
131.6957​
1​
Cats
27​
88​
2​
131​
2​
Dees
26​
177​
4​
123.6522​
3​
Pies
27​
38​
3​
121.087​
4​
Eagles
26​
100​
7​
115.3913​
5​
Lions
26​
169​
5​
113​
6​
Port
25​
264​
8​
102.8696​
7​
North
25​
199​
9​
101.2174​
8​
Dogs
26​
169​
6​
99.86957​
9​
Swans
24​
262​
16​
93.30435​
10​
Saints
24​
332​
14​
83.91304​
11​
Blues
25​
139​
10​
83.34783​
12​
Suns
25​
39​
13​
82​
13​
Freo
25​
66​
11​
80.6087​
14​
Dons
24​
293​
15​
77.86957​
15​
Giants
25​
63​
12​
77.3913​
16​
Crows
24​
169​
17​
74.91304​
17​
Hawks
24​
80​
18​
60.95652​
18​

There was a few surprise packets there and to me there isn't a standout, apart from perhaps the hawks being bottom for both and looking every bit like it on the field too. Interestingly there is a lot of heat on them about if they cut too deep yet they are 89 days younger on average & 14 games less played than us... The bombers are certainly one that I'm sure we all look at and think how we should be above and they have a similar spread to us. I think it's important to also consider who they have played (Hawks, suns)

In terms of the breakdown of players that have played certain brackets of games, this is where you can see our clear deficiency :




0-5051-100101-150150-200200+

North
6​
8​
4​
1​
4​
Saints
7​
5​
4​
6​
1​
Blues
8​
8​
4​
2​
1​
Suns
7​
10​
2​
4​
0​
Freo
6​
10​
5​
1​
1​
Dons
10​
6​
4​
1​
2​
Giants
11​
5​
3​
3​
1​
Crows
13​
6​
0​
0​
4​
Hawks
14​
3​
4​
1​
1​

I did the clubs that are closest to us and compared the brackets of games played. The players that have played between 100-200 games in our team are 0, in fact we only have Crouch (136) on our list that fits into this category with Dawson (88) & Keays (92) to enter this season. From the weekends side we have Doedee (73), Murphy (77) & ROB (79) who will be close to this mark at the start of next season. This is a very clear gap in our experience & lets be honest Murphy, ROB and to some extend Keays are not really the guys taking us to the next success.

The other thing to stand out here is our 200+ game experienced players look to be on their last legs, Sloane is not the player he once was and we should not be offering him anther contract, Smith looking pretty cooked as well. Tex can't go on for many more years and Laird looks to be the only player we will keep long term.

Moving into next season I would say our max 200+ should be 3, our 150-200 will be 0 & our 100-150 will be 2, still far behind all the other clubs. All the while we can't really afford to offload our recent early draft picks due to a lack of talent overall.

For reference our 2017 grand final match up had the below split of games:

2017 AFL GFAge yearsAge MonthsGames0-5051-100101-150150-200200+
Crows
25​
340​
108.6818​
3​
8​
5​
4​
2​
Tigers
25​
43​
104.0909​
7​
4​
4​
5​
2​

This shows me we are years away from any sort of meaningful success, most likely when our current 0-50 is the 101-150 range which is 100 games (4.5 years).

Stats are only useful to a point and obviously the players you have in these splits can effect your success as well. To me it just shows we have a long way to go.... Bring on 2027 :straining:
 
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Even free agents and trading won't help us imo. We need a core group of players to gain experience together
Well we have a bunch of players at around the 50 game mark.

Problem is nearly all of them are s**t so we have to start again with a new batch of kids.
 
The 100-200 gap is kind of glaring really. That's your engine room of what should be good reliable players, the mortar that holds the bricks that are your inconsistent oldies and youth together.
 
Well we have a bunch of players at around the 50 game mark.

Problem is nearly all of them are s**t so we have to start again with a new batch of kids.
Our players close to 50 games:

Chayce Jones
Sam Berry
Izak Rankine
Shane McAdam
Ned McHenry
Harry Schoenberg
Darcy Fogarty
Jordan Butts
Elliott Himmelberg
Lachlan Sholl

Not real happy reading at the moment. Need a decent number of these to make it.
 
Our players close to 50 games:

Chayce Jones
Sam Berry
Izak Rankine
Shane McAdam
Ned McHenry
Harry Schoenberg
Darcy Fogarty
Jordan Butts
Elliott Himmelberg
Lachlan Sholl

Not real happy reading at the moment. Need a decent number of these to make it.
McAdams age doesn't fit with when we are likely to be good, need him to have a good year to up his trade value imo.
EH shouldn't get another contact. Rankine, Berry, FOG have shown they can perform at the level and the jury is out on the rest
 
So is it worth us looking at trading in a few bottom 10 best 22 players from other clubs as a stop-gap between the 100 and 200 game mark in order to stem the bleeding, or wait it out for 2-3 more years until our current core get experience?
No quick fixes for me. Take the quality free agents, keep adding quality draft picks.
 
Walker 250+ and 33 end of season heading to 34 in the first month of next season. CONTRACT END OF 2023

- does he get a cameo contract for next year or do we bite the bullet?

Walker provides a contest either up the ground or as the forward ruck - 13 hitouts in 5 games . 41 kicks for 10.9 - some very easy misses in that lot with some disposals up the ground. Works hard and has still looked dangerous taking the best defender if not the 2nd. I still dont like his FF/FA of 4/9 because I think its more aggression rather than technical

I guess for me its the intangibles - I mentioned biting the bullet and going with Fogarty, Thilthorpe and maybe Gollant/HH next year with our smaller forwards . It means Fogarty gets the number 1 defender - but I think he is ready . It means RT becomes the forward ruck though a HH could do that and it means we lose a leader.

Sloane - 250+ 33 and 34 right at the start of next season . CONTRACTED END OF 2023.
Is currently doing ok after his knee injury last year. 19 disposals a game plus under 4 tackles a game suggests he is going ok. He isnt getting tagged anymore and he and Laird provide the grunt for the mercedes in Dawson and Rachele .

But the temptation is to clog up CBA time from other developing players. He started on a wing and has now moved into the midfield . While I have called for Sloane to spend time in the middle it was more for those moments when sides were on top and he could provide leadership and drive from the centre bounce.

I know people will point out Berrys struggles and Schoenbergs disappointing start but I feel we must persist with them. Berry 38 and Schoenberg 49 are in that sweet spot for games played

Smith - 240 and 32 at the start of next year. CONTRACT END OF 2024.
Brodie to the eye struggled early and would have been dropped in my team but golden tickets paid off with a return to form in the last 2games. I'm not going to spend a lot of time on Brodie as I think he should be phased out and if the Redman stories have legs he may play a lot of SANFL next year.

With Milera and Jones I think we have cover though both these players also have had and continue to have targets on their backs . Its going to take 1 or 2 bad games for the knives to come out on these 2 But between the 3 I think we can manage the year well

As this is primarily a List Management discussion I will end by saying - I would NOT rush these 3 in to sign new contracts. Certainly start talks and work out details but I would wait till very late in the year ie round 22 etc and making my decisions based on ALL knowledge ie injuries and players coming INTO the club.
 
Walker 250+ and 33 end of season heading to 34 in the first month of next season. CONTRACT END OF 2023

- does he get a cameo contract for next year or do we bite the bullet?

Walker provides a contest either up the ground or as the forward ruck - 13 hitouts in 5 games . 41 kicks for 10.9 - some very easy misses in that lot with some disposals up the ground. Works hard and has still looked dangerous taking the best defender if not the 2nd. I still dont like his FF/FA of 4/9 because I think its more aggression rather than technical

I guess for me its the intangibles - I mentioned biting the bullet and going with Fogarty, Thilthorpe and maybe Gollant/HH next year with our smaller forwards . It means Fogarty gets the number 1 defender - but I think he is ready . It means RT becomes the forward ruck though a HH could do that and it means we lose a leader.

Sloane - 250+ 33 and 34 right at the start of next season . CONTRACTED END OF 2023.
Is currently doing ok after his knee injury last year. 19 disposals a game plus under 4 tackles a game suggests he is going ok. He isnt getting tagged anymore and he and Laird provide the grunt for the mercedes in Dawson and Rachele .

But the temptation is to clog up CBA time from other developing players. He started on a wing and has now moved into the midfield . While I have called for Sloane to spend time in the middle it was more for those moments when sides were on top and he could provide leadership and drive from the centre bounce.

I know people will point out Berrys struggles and Schoenbergs disappointing start but I feel we must persist with them. Berry 38 and Schoenberg 49 are in that sweet spot for games played

Smith - 240 and 32 at the start of next year. CONTRACT END OF 2024.
Brodie to the eye struggled early and would have been dropped in my team but golden tickets paid off with a return to form in the last 2games. I'm not going to spend a lot of time on Brodie as I think he should be phased out and if the Redman stories have legs he may play a lot of SANFL next year.

With Milera and Jones I think we have cover though both these players also have had and continue to have targets on their backs . Its going to take 1 or 2 bad games for the knives to come out on these 2 But between the 3 I think we can manage the year well

As this is primarily a List Management discussion I will end by saying - I would NOT rush these 3 in to sign new contracts. Certainly start talks and work out details but I would wait till very late in the year ie round 22 etc and making my decisions based on ALL knowledge ie injuries and players coming INTO the club.
Happy to revisit this

Walker yes a new 1 year contract - do it AFC

Smith - leave it until 2024

Sloane - well we all know the answer but Thanks Rory see ya
 

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Happy to revisit this

Walker yes a new 1 year contract - do it AFC

Smith - leave it until 2024

Sloane - well we all know the answer but Thanks Rory see ya
Also really important to not lose too many of these guys at one time. Sloane this year, one of tex and Smith the year after and the last in 25
 
Walker 250+ and 33 end of season heading to 34 in the first month of next season. CONTRACT END OF 2023

- does he get a cameo contract for next year or do we bite the bullet?

Walker provides a contest either up the ground or as the forward ruck - 13 hitouts in 5 games . 41 kicks for 10.9 - some very easy misses in that lot with some disposals up the ground. Works hard and has still looked dangerous taking the best defender if not the 2nd. I still dont like his FF/FA of 4/9 because I think its more aggression rather than technical

I guess for me its the intangibles - I mentioned biting the bullet and going with Fogarty, Thilthorpe and maybe Gollant/HH next year with our smaller forwards . It means Fogarty gets the number 1 defender - but I think he is ready . It means RT becomes the forward ruck though a HH could do that and it means we lose a leader.

Sloane - 250+ 33 and 34 right at the start of next season . CONTRACTED END OF 2023.
Is currently doing ok after his knee injury last year. 19 disposals a game plus under 4 tackles a game suggests he is going ok. He isnt getting tagged anymore and he and Laird provide the grunt for the mercedes in Dawson and Rachele .

But the temptation is to clog up CBA time from other developing players. He started on a wing and has now moved into the midfield . While I have called for Sloane to spend time in the middle it was more for those moments when sides were on top and he could provide leadership and drive from the centre bounce.

I know people will point out Berrys struggles and Schoenbergs disappointing start but I feel we must persist with them. Berry 38 and Schoenberg 49 are in that sweet spot for games played

Smith - 240 and 32 at the start of next year. CONTRACT END OF 2024.
Brodie to the eye struggled early and would have been dropped in my team but golden tickets paid off with a return to form in the last 2games. I'm not going to spend a lot of time on Brodie as I think he should be phased out and if the Redman stories have legs he may play a lot of SANFL next year.

With Milera and Jones I think we have cover though both these players also have had and continue to have targets on their backs . Its going to take 1 or 2 bad games for the knives to come out on these 2 But between the 3 I think we can manage the year well

As this is primarily a List Management discussion I will end by saying - I would NOT rush these 3 in to sign new contracts. Certainly start talks and work out details but I would wait till very late in the year ie round 22 etc and making my decisions based on ALL knowledge ie injuries and players coming INTO the club.

Literally Walker is a top 5 forward in the comp - he isn’t getting silver service or an over supply of insides 50’s and being carried. Age is just a number. I am sure the Lakers aren’t going to sack Le Bron because he is 100 years old!

Not even a discussion - he gets signed

Brodie - I disagree with a few on this as I think Brodie has had an excellent year. Statistically near career best numbers and has looked like it most weeks. Seems to me to be an easy whipping boy as a senior player

Rory - to me his spot depends on list spots. Obviously Crouch, Brown should go as midfield depth, maybe Hateley - and there lies Rory’s future (my view). If you delist 3-4 midfielders he probably holds his spot - I don’t believe any of the aforementioned guys deserve a spot anymore than he does


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
Literally Walker is a top 5 forward in the comp - he isn’t getting silver service or an over supply of insides 50’s and being carried. Age is just a number. I am sure the Lakers aren’t going to sack Le Bron because he is 100 years old!

Not even a discussion - he gets signed

Brodie - I disagree with a few on this as I think Brodie has had an excellent year. Statistically near career best numbers and has looked like it most weeks. Seems to me to be an easy whipping boy as a senior player

Rory - to me his spot depends on list spots. Obviously Crouch, Brown should go as midfield depth, maybe Hateley - and there lies Rory’s future (my view). If you delist 3-4 midfielders he probably holds his spot - I don’t believe any of the aforementioned guys deserve a spot anymore than he does


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
I wrote that post in April
 

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