AFL Round 23

[balmainforever]

FRIDAY, 30TH AUGUST
7.50pm: Sydney ($2.25) vs Hawthorn ($1.65) Line 8.5

SATURDAY, 31ST AUGUST
1.45pm: St.Kilda ($5.75) vs Fremantle ($1.14) Line 37.5
2.10pm: Geelong ($1.06) vs Brisbane ($9.00) Line 55.5
4.40pm: Port Adelaide ($1.70) vs Carlton ($2.14) Line 6.5
7.40pm: Essendon ($2.90) vs Richmond ($1.40) Line 21.5
8.10pm: West Coast ($1.96) vs Adelaide ($1.82) Line 2.5

SUNDAY, 1ST SEPTEMBER
1.10pm: Gold Coast ($1.14) vs G-W Sydney ($5.50) Line 35.5
3.20pm: Collingwood ($1.53) vs North Melbourne ($2.50) Line 13.5
4.40pm: Western Bulldogs ($1.11) vs Melbourne ($6.50) Line 40.5

Odds courtesy Sportsbet.com.au (as at 2.50pm on 26/8/13)

 

[phz10]

Freo - Hawks - Adelaide looking real nice.

 

[the_big_sav]

freo over 40
geel over 40
gc over 15
wb over 40
rich 1st to 25
port under 40

 

[the_big_sav]

anyone think wc a chance? home ground advantage, finals up for grabs, no walker/lynch/talia?, kennedy a coleman chance, send off embley/nicoski/selwood

 

[TheKanga]

Call me crazy but i'm liking

St Kilda
GWS

@ 30.25

- Milneys farewell game, i get the feeling they will be fired up.
- Gold Coast look spent to me, i think there is value with GWS.

 

[the_big_sav]

do you think a 30pt head start is enough for the kangas?

also if Richmond win against the dons by a fair margin (they are already 6% ahead of Collingwood) will Collingwood go through the motions and rest players seeing as they wont move from 6th

 

[daniel_4tw]

anyone think wc a chance? home ground advantage, finals up for grabs, no walker/lynch/talia?, kennedy a coleman chance, send off embley/nicoski/selwood

Home ground advantage counts for zero for West Coast this year. They lack speed in the midfield and get killed on the bigger grounds (eg. Subi). Check their record in WA this year for proof.

West Coast put the cue in the rack weeks ago and I can see them losing by 50+ points on Saturday.

I will be jumping on the Crows this weekend, as they to have finals ambitions. Mind you, I am a tad bias

 

[the_big_sav]

yeh ive looked at their home record. I just thought maybe they have been saving themselves for one last effort in front of the home crowd to give hope to next year and send off the retirees.

first to 25 or first 1/4? wc is 13 and 8 and Adelaide are 7 and 12 (2 draws). although wc have been smashed in the first 15mins the last 2 games

 

[Khatt]

freo over 40
geel over 40
gc over 15
wb over 40
rich 1st to 25
port under 40

I had the same thought about Geelong 40+ as they play very well at Simonds. The only game this year that Geelong played at Simonds which wasn't 40+ was the game against Port Adelaide where they gave up their 58 point lead in the last quarter.

 

[Blueboy3]

Y

Call me crazy but i'm liking

St Kilda
GWS

@ 30.25

- Milneys farewell game, i get the feeling they will be fired up.
- Gold Coast look spent to me, i think there is value with GWS.

You're crazy

But in all seriousness - you'd think freo would have the saints covered without getting out of 2nd gear.

Gws probably overs but without seeing a lot of their game yesterday (apart from the 71pt to 1 2nd quarter) I suggest they are pretty spent too.

 

[balmainforever]

Really do think that you can't do anything until after tonight's decision about Essendon.
If 9th does get into finals, Essendon will be great value.
They'll treat the Richmond game like their GF.

 

[Jason223]

anyone think wc a chance? home ground advantage, finals up for grabs, no walker/lynch/talia?, kennedy a coleman chance, send off embley/nicoski/selwood

Yes I think west coast can win. They beat Adelaide at aami by a goal earlier this year. I'll be going to the game

 

[Willzzz]

Gone Early for the WCE/Adelaide Game.
1U - Adelaide Crows SU @ $2.00 (Sportingbet)
WCE have been terrible the last 2 weeks and it isn't so much an effort thing but more a structural thing.

 

[GROTTO]

Gone Early for the WCE/Adelaide Game.
1U - Adelaide Crows SU @ $2.00 (Sportingbet)
WCE have been terrible the last 2 weeks and it isn't so much an effort thing but more a structural thing.

Im in a tipping comp and have no idea who to tip let alone punt on!

There is too many games that could go either way and Im not sure what to do?

So many teams may just rollover for finals preservation.

 

[Sunny_]

Definite value is GWS. So many Suns injured at the moment. Likely won't be much in that game at all with the team we put on the park.

 

[X_box_X]

The only reason I can see GWS winning is if they continue to follow in the Dockers' 2001 footsteps. The '01 Dockers went 0-17 before winning their first game, and then won their second game for the year in the final round to finish 2-20. GWS also started the season 0-17, before winning their first game against Melbourne, and their second game in the final round (perhaps).

Apart from that, Gold Coast should romp it in.

 

[Willzzz]

Im in a tipping comp and have no idea who to tip let alone punt on!

There is too many games that could go either way and Im not sure what to do?

So many teams may just rollover for finals preservation.

These would be my picks for the weekend.

Hawks
Freo
Geelong
Carlton
Richmond
Adelaide
GCS
Collingwood
Western Bulldogs

 

[GROTTO]

These would be my picks for the weekend.

Hawks
Freo
Geelong
Carlton
Richmond
Adelaide
GCS
Collingwood
Western Bulldogs

Thanks mate much appreciated.

Query on the Blues, is it because Port will roll over or that the Blues are the better team?

What if Freo decide to rest a group of players? Are they still better than the Saints?

I also worry about the Pies, they may roll over and take it easy - 6 day break for first final?? What if the Roos can make the finals by beating the Pies, surely that would factor into the equation.

I think importantly the selected teams on Thursday night should play a major part in selecting the winners.

 

[Khatt]

These would be my picks for the weekend.

Hawks
Freo
Geelong
Carlton
Richmond
Adelaide
GCS
Collingwood
Western Bulldogs

I'm surprised you picked Carlton over Port Adelaide, especially when the game is on their home ground, AMMI Stadium. Form wise, I think Port Adelaide is better than Carlton.

 

[schnoods]

The only reason I can see GWS winning is if they continue to follow in the Dockers' 2001 footsteps. The '01 Dockers went 0-17 before winning their first game, and then won their second game for the year in the final round to finish 2-20. GWS also started the season 0-17, before winning their first game against Melbourne, and their second game in the final round (perhaps).

Apart from that, Gold Coast should romp it in.

Cheers for that, just when i thought i had forgotten that horror...


I think GWS is good for a line bet, they will start with a bit of vigour especially after their performance on the weekend.

 

[somethingrandom]

Really do think that you can't do anything until after tonight's decision about Essendon.
If 9th does get into finals, Essendon will be great value.
They'll treat the Richmond game like their GF.

 

[Rourke]

West Coast vs Adelaide Over 174.5 is $1.91 at bet365.

West Coast matches average 191, Adelaide's 181. That's the baseline.

• If Carlton loses, each team will know it has to smack the other by a certain number to reach 9th. Recipe for an open game.
• If Carlton wins, they will get the news just before they run out that they can't make it. Flat all round. Defensive efforts are the first thing to drop off when you're not 100% committed.

Personally I'll be staggered and shocked if this one is below 190, even with the forecast of 40kmh winds and a possible shower.

 

[Rourke]

Call me crazy but i'm liking
St Kilda
- Milneys farewell game, i get the feeling they will be fired up.

It's going to be a veteran's parade with Koschitzke & Blake too; you can't bring players past their prime into a battle against Freo, they are too good right now.

 

[DragzLS1]

I like the GWS line
North melbourne win (as they would be 9th on % if Carlton and Brisbane loose which is highly likely imo)
Geelong over 40
Dogs over 40 or Gia most goals for his 250th/possible farewell game.

 

[The_Doctor]

Brisbane at the line. I had a very interesting, talkative passenger in my cab this morning - can't say anything more than get on the Lions.

That pesky driver/passenger confidentiality?