Ballarat FL 2012

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It was closer than many probably expected, but the Marsh never threatened - despite what they make think. Second time this year they've played a terrible brand of football against Darley, rather than back their 'super' talented youngsters they keep banging on about.
 
James Kerr said:
It was closer than many probably expected, but the Marsh never threatened - despite what they make think. Second time this year they've played a terrible brand of football against Darley, rather than back their 'super' talented youngsters they keep banging on about.
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they kept banging on about the youngsters when i was heading into the clink. The more things change, the more they stay the same
 
James Kerr said:
It was closer than many probably expected, but the Marsh never threatened - despite what they make think. Second time this year they've played a terrible brand of football against Darley, rather than back their 'super' talented youngsters they keep banging on about.
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I wouldn't say never threatened, there were some poor mistakes made by the Marsh at crucial times which cost them dearly. Also have a few passengers which were clearly exposed. Darley were the better side for most of the day but their flaws were shown. Poor kicking for goal has been their Achilles heal all year and again it was on the weekend. This is because they take low percentage shots for goal (from pockets and from too far out) and do not look to make the extra pass to get higher percentage shots for goal. Also I seriously question their ability to go deep into the finals when the pace and the intensity of the game is at another level. Minns, Saul Grenfell and Tuddy Edwards are slow and will get found out like in the finals against North City, full strength Sunbury and Redan.
 

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Cameron here - Just running a eye over this weeks games and what a cracker week we have ahead of us, some real hard predictions if you ask me.

SUNBURY Vs Cobras - The reigning have been coasting along lately doing just enough, that will happen again with little fanfare. The carpet pythons had the heart ripped out last week and now can't make the finals, so much like a saturday night at the pub after they find out there girlfriend kissed a Darley boy, they will roll over and refuse to fight. Lions by 54

DARLEY Vs Burra - After two big wins and 2 byes Darley showed a bit of weakness against the local rivals. In what was surely a wake up call that they may be getting a bit ahead of themselves they grabbed the points and a valuable lesson. Sebas have been valiant all year but they just don't have the troops to match it at the business end of the season with a finals bound side even though they have matched Darley at stages in each game over the last few years. Devils by 48

Bloods Vs LAKERS - A true battle of who really cares. Melton showed last week that they can kick goals when it opens up and Lakers proved that they are competitive but down right boring. Both sides are lucky that GWS plays Melbourne this weekend or this would easily be the least anticipated contest in the entire country. The upside for the Lakers will be a win that may help recruiting in the offseason but that isn't nearly as important as the new facilities they will be getting, the only realistic offseason target otherwise would of been Shrek. Lakers by 16

East Vs NORTH - the big bald magnet is banging them in left right and center and the Roo boys juggernaut is gaining momentum. The only downside is the North wagon has not slowed down yet and it refuses to yield for anything in it's path and it is heading a hell of a lot quicker. This is one very good football team right here and one that i am looking forward to seeing match up against the finals version of Sunbury and Redan (yes they are different sides come september). City by 34

Due to the lack of flow on this site in recent years i have decided to place my predictions on here the morning of the games so i can simply amend them after the fact and none of you muppets will be any wiser. If you catch me out then I'll just send my mate Abe Kur around to set things straight.
 
ab Rodriguez said:
Darley didnt even have a terribly bad side in 2011. They just hung Learmonth out to dry.
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please explain?

half the side was injured all year, they recruited Porter and he did his knee round 2, Jarrod Edwards was injured all year, Jake went to Port Melbourne and won a flag, numerous others were injured. No fault of Gary, and the club didn't think so either. But was time for a change.

Big game this week v East. All of East, Redan, and Darley can still finish 3rd and get double chance.
 
The saviour of all that is still good in the world is back again with last minute predictions.

BALLARAT Vs South - The swans will have a decent test today but are a bit better of a side then the panthers and up in the rat should be a notch above. Swans by 14

DARLEY Vs East - the two surprise form sides in the comp right now. East conquered the impossible last weekend and between the two sides they have slayed the 3 unbeatable sides the comp thought it possessed in City, and the two lions. Darley played there worst game against east early in the year and will be out for vengeance. The rounds top blockbuster should be one to pay attention to and i have the home side taking the points.....just. Darley by 4

Melton Vs CITY - Time to pick up the pieces after a wake up call last week. It's by no means the derailment that every other side hopes, North are still a very good side and will make a statement against the lowly bloods. What happened to this once strong club in Melton? City by 78.

REDAN Vs Lakers - Good sides like Redan don't drop these games at this stage of the season. I couldn't care less about this game to be honest so no need to worry about a synopsis. Lake Wendouree provide me with no form of passion whether is be in the form of hatrid, pity, or love whatsoever. Please find something interesting about your club and stop being a "meh" to the rest of the comp. Redan by 34

BYE vs Sebas - very close game in this, tipping a low scoring affair. 0-0 draw

Cameron.......just here to show you god does exist.
 

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So after 12 months the landscape is the same in the Bfl top 6. Question: do people think the gap has gotten bigger this year? It seems like 6th at end of home away will be very clear of 7 and the gap to the big 5 is even greater. The top 5 looks very competitive though.
 
The bottom two are statistically worse but overall the bottom 5 are going to only be one win worse than last year, or exactly the same if there's an upset in this last round to get them to 18 wins.

However even if BM lose this weekend the gap from 6th to 7th will be a game closer than last year.

2012 bottom five -
MS 6-10, 101
BM 5-11, 74
LW 3-13, 63
ME 3-13, 63
SE 1-15, 53
Total - 18-62, 69%

2013 bottom five with a round to go -
BM 6-9
MS 5-10
LW 5-11
ME 1-14
SE 0-15
Total - 17-59, 65%
 
TP86 said:
The bottom two are statistically worse but overall the bottom 5 are going to only be one win worse than last year, or exactly the same if there's an upset in this last round to get them to 18 wins.

However even if BM lose this weekend the gap from 6th to 7th will be a game closer than last year.

2012 bottom five -
MS 6-10, 101
BM 5-11, 74
LW 3-13, 63
ME 3-13, 63
SE 1-15, 53
Total - 18-62, 69%

2013 bottom five with a round to go -
BM 6-9
MS 5-10
LW 5-11
ME 1-14
SE 0-15
Total - 17-59, 65%
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As far as useless statistics go you have just taken the cake with this lot. You do realise that between the 5 of them they must have some wins, we don't play in a league where the top 6 only play the bottom 5.
The more logical fact to point out is how many of the 17 wins have come against top 6 opponents. the staggering statistic comes to a grand total of, drumroll..........1. Melton South upsetting Ballarat way back in round 5.
The gulf in class is definitely present. South and Marsh have made progress forward yet are still a bit away from challenging the good sides. The bottom 3 have regressed further, with Lake Wendouree the most likely to pull themselves out of the mess.
 
Cameron Poe said:
As far as useless statistics go you have just taken the cake with this lot. You do realise that between the 5 of them they must have some wins, we don't play in a league where the top 6 only play the bottom 5.
The more logical fact to point out is how many of the 17 wins have come against top 6 opponents. the staggering statistic comes to a grand total of, drumroll..........1. Melton South upsetting Ballarat way back in round 5.
The gulf in class is definitely present. South and Marsh have made progress forward yet are still a bit away from challenging the good sides. The bottom 3 have regressed further, with Lake Wendouree the most likely to pull themselves out of the mess.
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Agreed. There are 4 tiers in this comp.
Flag Favorites - Sunbury, North City and Redan - Clearly better than the rest of the comp when healthy. Sunbury has elite players, solid team culture and structure. North City dont quite have the talent level of Sunbury but have an elite coaching and team structure. While Redan has a high quality list and again has a elite team structure and culture.

Flag Pinchers - Darley and East Point - Very good sides who could beat the top 3 on their day but aren't able to have 3 great games in a row to win a flag. East need 1 or 2 more elite players on the other hand Darley's bottom 6 are the issue for them.

Pretenders - Ballarat, Bacchus Marsh, Melton South, Lake Wendouree - These sides can compete with the sides above for 3 quarters or half a game but lack the class and depth to win against the better sides. Need to recruit 4 to 5 high quality players and get improvement from the young players within to compete with top 3 sides. South seem to have gone backwards. Ballarat have a decent side but lack the high end talent of the sides above. Marsh have a young side (too young) that lacks elite and experienced players. Lake Wendouree lacks talent but play with good structure and have a good culture, They just need an infusion of talent and some new clubrooms to be finals bound.

Rabbles - Melton, Sebastopol - These clubs have a significant talent gap with most other sides in the comp. Also do not have a strong culture to develop their own players and lack finances to recruit heavily to make up that gap.
 
MR. T said:
Rabbles - Melton, Sebastopol - These clubs have a significant talent gap with most other sides in the comp. Also do not have a strong culture to develop their own players and lack finances to recruit heavily to make up that gap.
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While Sebas are terrible, they have a small loyal fan base that attend every week and keep the club running by volunteering on game day for training, canteen, bar duties. For me, Melton are the club in big trouble.
 
The concern is really for any club outside the 6 that is recruiting players if they are. The bottom 5 are clearly a fair way off so you hope they are just trying to build with local kids for the future if any spending then in trouble IMO. Ballarat finish 6th but even themselves seem a fair way behind the top 5.
Redan freaks, rebuilt yet finish 2nd I am sure they did not go in thinking this could be a GF year.
Prediction for GF to play against North City? Darley on day can get anyone, if DJ gets a hold of any defence they can and sunbury injury interrupted all year will that cost them chance to defend their crown?
 
Jarman03 said:
The concern is really for any club outside the 6 that is recruiting players if they are. The bottom 5 are clearly a fair way off so you hope they are just trying to build with local kids for the future if any spending then in trouble IMO. Ballarat finish 6th but even themselves seem a fair way behind the top 5.
Redan freaks, rebuilt yet finish 2nd I am sure they did not go in thinking this could be a GF year.
Prediction for GF to play against North City? Darley on day can get anyone, if DJ gets a hold of any defence they can and sunbury injury interrupted all year will that cost them chance to defend their crown?
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Any side that is outside the top 6 should be building towards a point in time where they can recruit high quality players and have a crack at top 4 spot. Sebas and Melton need to build from within first (like lake wendouree and Bacchus) and also build finances so in 2 or three years time they can go out and recruit the right players. no point spending for them to spend cash next year to recruit 4 or 5 players to get them semi competitive and then have them leave after 2 years. Bacchus, lakers and Ballarat and in positions where they are not going to improve significantly and compete with top teams unless they do recruit high quality talent.
 
MR. T said:
Agreed. There are 4 tiers in this comp.
Flag Favorites - Sunbury, North City and Redan - Clearly better than the rest of the comp when healthy. Sunbury has elite players, solid team culture and structure. North City dont quite have the talent level of Sunbury but have an elite coaching and team structure. While Redan has a high quality list and again has a elite team structure and culture.

Flag Pinchers - Darley and East Point - Very good sides who could beat the top 3 on their day but aren't able to have 3 great games in a row to win a flag. East need 1 or 2 more elite players on the other hand Darley's bottom 6 are the issue for them.

Pretenders - Ballarat, Bacchus Marsh, Melton South, Lake Wendouree - These sides can compete with the sides above for 3 quarters or half a game but lack the class and depth to win against the better sides. Need to recruit 4 to 5 high quality players and get improvement from the young players within to compete with top 3 sides. South seem to have gone backwards. Ballarat have a decent side but lack the high end talent of the sides above. Marsh have a young side (too young) that lacks elite and experienced players. Lake Wendouree lacks talent but play with good structure and have a good culture, They just need an infusion of talent and some new clubrooms to be finals bound.

Rabbles - Melton, Sebastopol - These clubs have a significant talent gap with most other sides in the comp. Also do not have a strong culture to develop their own players and lack finances to recruit heavily to make up that gap.
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I wouldn't necessarily agree with the bolded, I'd say they're pretty even.
 
BlueJet said:
I wouldn't necessarily agree with the bolded, I'd say they're pretty even.
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And what a compelling argument you have put forth to support your statement.
I agree that the sunbury list is better then that of North City. North are an incredibly well drilled side and there structure is second to none....Sunbury on the other hand Horwood at the helm. Big difference
 
Cameron Poe said:
And what a compelling argument you have put forth to support your statement.
I agree that the sunbury list is better then that of North City. North are an incredibly well drilled side and there structure is second to none....Sunbury on the other hand Horwood at the helm. Big difference
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I didn't think that I really needed to argue, it all comes down to peoples opinions and perceptions of things, we see things differently which is fine.
 
Who is everyone's tips for the Flag? Have North got it wrapped up or can Redan or Sunbury knock them off? Have Sunbury now got most of their players back from injury or do they still have some significant outs?

Are the other clubs happy to have North in the league still or is there a fear that they will become too dominant with the VFL connection?

Whatever happened to Jarrod Edwards, injured or just lost interest? What was made of his clearance activity early in the year?
 
Ganymede said:
Who is everyone's tips for the Flag? Have North got it wrapped up or can Redan or Sunbury knock them off? Have Sunbury now got most of their players back from injury or do they still have some significant outs?

Are the other clubs happy to have North in the league still or is there a fear that they will become too dominant with the VFL connection?

Whatever happened to Jarrod Edwards, injured or just lost interest? What was made of his clearance activity early in the year?
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Redan or North to win it imo.
The other clubs were never happy that North came back..
& Jarrod Edwards was cleared back to Redan,
 
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