Bank the Pick

[Final Siren]

I heard somewhere we are planning to bank our end-of-1st-round pick (the one we got from Adelaide, and they got for losing Bock to Gold Coast).

If true, this is a GREAT sign.

So often we have sold out the future chasing short-term results. I see this happening now with other clubs, e.g. Geelong giving up a mid-1st-round compensation pick, which would be #11 in the uncompromised 2012 draft, for #15 in this one.

Yep, it gets a kid in sooner -- but that kid will age and retire two years sooner, as well. In the end, all you've done is shift forward the window of time you get to use him. You've bought short-term results by paying over the odds with your future.

Clubs truly committed to long-term success should maximize the value of their picks, regardless of which year they get to use them. I'm very happy to hear Richmond really is looking to the long-term.

 

[TOOs_Finest]

I heard somewhere we are planning to bank our end-of-1st-round pick (the one we got from Adelaide, and they got for losing Bock to Gold Coast).

If true, this is a GREAT sign.

So often we have sold out the future chasing short-term results. I see this happening now with other clubs, e.g. Geelong giving up a mid-1st-round compensation pick, which would be #11 in the uncompromised 2012 draft, for #15 in this one.

Yep, it gets a kid in sooner -- but that kid will age and retire two years sooner, as well. In the end, all you've done is shift forward the window of time you get to use him. You've bought short-term results by paying over the odds with your future.

Clubs truly committed to long-term success should maximize the value of their picks, regardless of which year they get to use them. I'm very happy to hear Richmond really is looking to the long-term.

If they identify that there will be enough quality in the draft around that pick this year, then use it I say. In particular if they have their eyes on a couple of kids who they expect to be available around that mark.

 

[The Cotch]

It's also very good trade bait.

 

[TOOs_Finest]

It's also very good trade bait.

Agree, was hoping we might get a good offer from GC to trade to them this year. But maybe next year with GC or GWS, we can upgrade a pick or get a decent established young player.

 

[tigers_of_old_08]

I agree with the club banking this pick as this years draft picks have been pushed forward by 10 picks.

 

[Wallaby]

It's a common strategy in the NFL to trade future draft picks - sometimes up to 3 years ahead. So sometimes clubs that are in a bit of a downswing may trade a first-round-pick in this year to another club for two first-round picks in future years.

This leads sometimes to 'double tanking' - if team A loses to team B, team A will finish lower and get a better draft pick. But if they also own the rights to team B's pick, beating team B will make that pick higher.

Sounds like were heading down that path in the AFL.

 

[popcap]

I heard somewhere we are planning to bank our end-of-1st-round pick (the one we got from Adelaide, and they got for losing Bock to Gold Coast).

If true, this is a GREAT sign.

So often we have sold out the future chasing short-term results. I see this happening now with other clubs, e.g. Geelong giving up a mid-1st-round compensation pick, which would be #11 in the uncompromised 2012 draft, for #15 in this one.

Yep, it gets a kid in sooner -- but that kid will age and retire two years sooner, as well. In the end, all you've done is shift forward the window of time you get to use him. You've bought short-term results by paying over the odds with your future.

Clubs truly committed to long-term success should maximize the value of their picks, regardless of which year they get to use them. I'm very happy to hear Richmond really is looking to the long-term.

I think Geelong trading out their mid-round pick is actually quite a good decision for them long-term. They'll be able to pick up a good kid from a strong draft, and start getting games into him straight away whilst at the same time putting him into an environment which still has champions like scarlett, bartel, champan, corey, enright, etc. floating around at the peak of their powers to show him the ropes and help his development along faster. Horses for courses, really - we're clearly not in the same situation, but you shouldn't necessarily always value future draft picks ahead of current ones.

 

[_RT_]

If Luke Mitchell and Ben Jacobs look to be around where our compo pick and 2nd round pick will be, I'd like to see us use the pick and get a quality KPF and a kid who could slot into HB or midfield.

 

[tugga]

If Luke Mitchell and Ben Jacobs look to be around where our compo pick and 2nd round pick will be, I'd like to see us use the pick and get a quality KPF and a kid who could slot into HB or midfield.

Don't we need to make a decision whether we use it or not beforehand?

 

[Tiger_Stripes]

Don't we need to make a decision whether we use it or not beforehand?

Yes we do, however I think he means based on our mock draft predictions we'll decide.

 

[Final Siren]

I think Geelong trading out their mid-round pick is actually quite a good decision for them long-term. They'll be able to pick up a good kid from a strong draft, and start getting games into him straight away whilst at the same time putting him into an environment which still has champions like scarlett, bartel, champan, corey, enright, etc. floating around at the peak of their powers to show him the ropes and help his development along faster.

This is the only valid reason I can think of for doing it -- believing that there's something special about the club's current environment that it won't have in two years' time. Although I still think that's a stretch.

Horses for courses, really - we're clearly not in the same situation, but you shouldn't necessarily always value future draft picks ahead of current ones.

I'm not saying delaying is better for the sake of it; what I object to is placing a premium on a pick just because you get to use it earlier. Geelong, by swapping 2012's pick #11 for 2010's pick #15, is valuing a pick today much more than a pick in two years' time.

If you view things objectively, the timing is irrelevant. You're always going to get a player for the length of his career, no matter when you use it. So you should always choose pick #11 over pick #15. Or, in our case, pick #19 (or thereabouts) in 2012 over pick #28 (or thereabouts) now.

 

[The BRICKSTER]

Bank it.

 

[_RT_]

Don't we need to make a decision whether we use it or not beforehand?

Yes we do, but the way I look at it we know whats on offer this year and where they will likely fall. Getting in 3 kids from the top 30 this year might just fast track our ability to play finals sooner rather than later. Lets say we add Caddy Jacobs and Mitchell. We get 2 kids that can learn the ropes off a flank with occasional runs in the midfield. We also get another KPF that we can start to groom for when our window opens in 2-3 years time.

In the 2012 'superdraft' while our pick will be at the end of the first round it would appear that the rest of the compo holders might just be saving their picks for then as well and depending on ladder position our pick might not be 19, it might drift out to 22, which means the kid we may have had our eye on could have already been taken.

Like I said, spend it now that we've got it, get in early and fast track some more kids along with the rest of the kids we picked up last year.

 

[folester41]

initially i wanted to use it so we could add more young players while the majority of our list is young, but the pick's value in two years time will almost double, instead of being worth pick 27-30, on top of a dozen 17 year olds being taken out of the draft that would be worthy of atleast top 30 picks.

so its pretty much worth around pick 40 or so in a normal draft, compared to about 20 or so in 2012

 

[LOZWILDA]

I would be more inclined to use it this year after looking at the available possibles around the 30 mark. I would trust in DH to do what he deems most beneficial going forward!

 

[Azzleberry]

I agree Bank it.. Some very good posts in this thread. If our recruiters are keen on the 2012 draft, we could see another trade next year, which will net us another 2st round compo pick. As I expect, we will probably finish bottom 6 next year, hence would be a good building ground in 2012 to have 3 picks in the top 30 of the 'superdraft' although didn't work out too well for us last time we did something like this (Pattison, Meyer, Polo etc.)

 

[The Rusty Trombone]

We need at least another 2 years to make some decisions on our current players and where they are sitting , at least we'll have a clearer picture of what we need to draft.

 

[richoatthedisco]

Bank it. Can be used or traded any time up to 2014. Gives us great flexibility.

 

[Cutty]

Bank it in a term deposit so we aren't tempted to use it as a trade sweetener

 

[DerpWerls]

Won't a bunch of other clubs be using their 'saved' picks from GWS and GC in 2012?

 

[Mr Magic]

Won't a bunch of other clubs be using their 'saved' picks from GWS and GC in 2012?

Never be a sheep. Followers will lose all their lives. The picks can be traded at any time and 2013/2014 is not outside our window!