Daily Special - May

[iluvparis]

Interest dropped off a bit in April so lets see if we can get a bit more participation and perhaps some new faces joining the fun in May.

All you have to do is find a best bet somewhere in the world each day - not that hard!

 

[iluvparis]

Sha Tin - Race 7 - 12.Thewizardofoz @ $10.00

Chat is obviously the hot fave but to me looks a ridiculous price for a horse (and stable) that have basically never traveled horses. That and the fact he has shown he is plenty beatable suggests to me he has to be a lay - and he has generated some great prices for the local horses who often proven extremely hard to beat over the shorter trips.

Of those I've settled on the Wizard from the Moreira/Size camp who has two dominant wins from his last 3 over 1400. In between that he was beaten by some of HK's best in the Classic Mile. The 1200m might be a bit sharp but he has a couple of dominant wins at the trip and at double figure odds looks a great bet.

 

[iluvparis]

Sha Tin - Race 7 - 12.Thewizardofoz @ $10.00

Mornington - Race 7 - 9.Airlie Magic @ BT

This lightly raced filly appeals in a race now decimated with scratchings - and there has been support for her already this morning. She has been competitive at most of her starts to date and finally got off the market on the synthetic last time out. Has been in the market at every run this prep suggesting there is some talent there - so hopefully the win gives her confidence to go on with it today.

 

[iluvparis]

Mornington - Race 7 - 9.Airlie Magic @ BT

0-2, -2 (57-137, +31.09)

Warrnambool - Race 6 - 9.Danzadoozie @ BT

Dominant winner on his steeple debut back at Hamilton just under a month ago which followed on from his Maiden hurdle win. That suggests to me he might be better over fences than hurdles. As a relatively lightly raced jumper he gets in on the limit here, although is actually terribly off at the weights given the limited weight spread. Hoping he is the improver here and can notch up his 3rd jumps win in a row.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Bool r10

Labuan star best tote

 

[FallingLiefs]

Bool r10

Labuan star best tote

0-1 -1.0

r2 Belmont Ellora May $2.2

started doing form and found this standout. then decided to do the rest of the card before backing anything and in that 35mins it went $2.60 to $2 on sportsbet.

still a ripping bet at 2.2 though.

 

[iluvparis]

Warrnambool - Race 6 - 9.Danzadoozie @ BT

0-3, -3 (57-138, +30.09)

Warrnambool - Race 6 - 1.Thubian @ BT

I know Thubian was donkey licked in the Brierly but I think the winner is every inch a 2-miler. Out to the 3.5 miles here which is Thubian's stopping ground I think he can turn the tables. He's had the measure of Payne's horse in the past too so think he should be third fave. They are completely different races and I think the market has overreacted to Tuesday's result.

 

[iluvparis]

Warrnambool - Race 6 - 1.Thubian @ BT

0-4, -4 (57-139, +29.09)

Wagga - Race 7 - 7.Adirondack @ BT

4 from 8 since changing stables this 5yo gelding has found a new lease on life. Continued his rich vein of form with a dominant win at Caulfield last time out when he cruised home by 5 lengths in open company. Slightly disadvantaged at the weights given the compressed spread but most above him are complete non-winners and this guy is in such good form he might be able to pinch some black type here.

 

[FallingLiefs]

r8 Flem - Supido. Tote.

if I had to guess a winning margin i'd say 2.5L.

 

[iluvparis]

Wagga - Race 7 - 7.Adirondack @ BT

Pretty sure that was 4 straight thirds in a row

0-5, -5 (57-140, +28.09)

Morphetville - Race 7 - 18.Don't Doubt Mama @ BOB

Massive win last start in a race that really should have been too short for her. That was admittedly against fillies only but there are hardly any super mares that have turned up here to take her on. Huge field so she will be going right back from the wide gate but hopefully that means there is plenty of pace on. If she gets a chance to have a crack at them I think she shapes as a great EW bet.

 

[iluvparis]

Morphetville - Race 7 - 18.Don't Doubt Mama @ BOB

0-6, -6 (57-141, +27.09)

Thread going beautifully

Ballarat - Race 5 - 2.Liten Prinsessa @ BT

Lightly raced mare who has made the top 5 in 9 of her 10 career starts. First up here and the 1100m may be a query but she recorded a pair of wins last spell including in the class. Down in class from her last two starts in the spring and she has form around some decent horses, better than she'll face here. Gate 1 so hopefully can settle nicely before producing a nice finish in the straight.

 

[iluvparis]

Geelong - Race 6 - 1.Kansas Sunflower

 

[iluvparis]

Ballarat - Race 5 - 2.Liten Prinsessa @ BT

Geelong - Race 6 - 1.Kansas Sunflower

0-8, -8 (57-143, +25.09)

Line currently at 11.5 losers before the drought breaks

 

[FallingLiefs]

r8 Flem - Supido. Tote.

if I had to guess a winning margin i'd say 2.5L.

Did lol at best tote/SP. 3mins pre race got bet on 1.8. SP 1.55. That's a solid move.

1-2 -1.45

R4 Belmont - Marchand 3.5

Just about last chance for this guy. Struggling to win against our best Saturday horses but only being outgunned very late after leading. If he can't beat Roman Fighter who looks next best it's probably the last time he gets my money.

 

[iluvparis]

Sandown - R6 - 4.Tap That @ BT

 

[iluvparis]

Sandown - R6 - 4.Tap That @ BT

0-9, -9 (57-144, +24.09)

 

[iluvparis]

Doomben - Race 7 - 8.Malaguerra @ BOB

Desperately unlucky in the TJ and guessing that wasn't a true reflection of his true form. Fave is getting ridiculously short for a horse that fell in in 3yo company last time out and Fell Swoop wasn't all that impressive in his last win in QLD. Shapes as the value runner at the top of the market if he can bounce back.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Doomben - Race 7 - 8.Malaguerra @ BOB

Desperately unlucky in the TJ and guessing that wasn't a true reflection of his true form. Fave is getting ridiculously short for a horse that fell in in 3yo company last time out and Fell Swoop wasn't all that impressive in his last win in QLD. Shapes as the value runner at the top of the market if he can bounce back.

Honestly don't understand the drift.

I will go r8 Scone Inz'n'out TOTE/SP.

 

[iluvparis]

Doomben - Race 7 - 8.Malaguerra @ BOB $10.10

Honestly don't understand the drift.

Oh hai there bookies

1-9, +0.10 (58-144, +33.19)

 

[iluvparis]

Pakenham - Race 6 - 2.Admireabeel @ BT

Thought highly enough to be thrown into the Stutt Stakes at just his second career start after winning his Maiden. Failed there but was put straight out afterwards. Well supported first up when only third but should appreciate the step up to 1400 to day and be all the fitter for it.

 

[iluvparis]

Moe - Race 7 - 8.Speedy Franzalis @ 11.00

Unless it's lost a leg in the paddock this looks completely the wrong price

 

[iluvparis]

Pakenham - Race 6 - 2.Admireabeel @ BT

Moe - Race 7 - 8.Speedy Franzalis @ 11.00

1-11, -1.9 (58-146, +31.19)

 

[iluvparis]

Geelong - Race 6 - 5.Rivers Gift @ BT

Happy to risk the fave on synthetic

 

[iluvparis]

Geelong - Race 6 - 5.Rivers Gift @ BT

1-12, -2.9 (58-147, +30.19)

 

[iluvparis]

Randwick - Race 1 - 1.Flow @ $2.10