
tl:dr - Does anybody create AFL models?
Hey guys, I just thought it was interesting that there is a punting board on an AFL site that doesn't have a lot of in-depth discussion on making predictive models for the AFL. I realise that this could be because the AFL is notoriously hard to model. I mean, if Roby's thread on the main board is anything to go by then maybe it'd be wise to steer clear of creating a system to predict at all
As for me, I haven't done a lot of gambling this year as I've been working away furiously creating a system that may never see the light of day. One thing I learnt from the on-going creation of this model is how naive it would be to gamble on 'gut feelings' - even if those gut feelings are in part made up subconsciously of the ins and outs or how Essendon travel to W.A last time etc.
I've come to this conclusion from learning more about the bookies and their odds and lines and I've concluded that only the smallest percentage of people could ever beat these odds over the long term without some sort of handicapping/value identifying betting system.
Personally I get my own AFL lines down to about the same accuracy as the major bookie lines at the bounce. For example I can predict an AFL game to within around 26pts in 2013 - I don't know anyone that can predict a game closer than me but how would I know anyone else? I'd be keeping quiet too if I had a system that could beat the bookies and their vig. Despite being slightly better at predicting an AFL game than the bookies, it still isn't low enough to make any decent return but it doesn't lose money and if I 'shop for odds' I might get up a few more %. But it's a lot of work for little return. Especially at my hobby amounts.
Anyway, sorry for the essay. I just frequently visit this board and am constantly surprised that there isn't any quantitative discussion ever going on.
Is there anybody out that does this? I'd love to hear from you guys.
Hey guys, I just thought it was interesting that there is a punting board on an AFL site that doesn't have a lot of in-depth discussion on making predictive models for the AFL. I realise that this could be because the AFL is notoriously hard to model. I mean, if Roby's thread on the main board is anything to go by then maybe it'd be wise to steer clear of creating a system to predict at all
As for me, I haven't done a lot of gambling this year as I've been working away furiously creating a system that may never see the light of day. One thing I learnt from the on-going creation of this model is how naive it would be to gamble on 'gut feelings' - even if those gut feelings are in part made up subconsciously of the ins and outs or how Essendon travel to W.A last time etc.
I've come to this conclusion from learning more about the bookies and their odds and lines and I've concluded that only the smallest percentage of people could ever beat these odds over the long term without some sort of handicapping/value identifying betting system.
Personally I get my own AFL lines down to about the same accuracy as the major bookie lines at the bounce. For example I can predict an AFL game to within around 26pts in 2013 - I don't know anyone that can predict a game closer than me but how would I know anyone else? I'd be keeping quiet too if I had a system that could beat the bookies and their vig. Despite being slightly better at predicting an AFL game than the bookies, it still isn't low enough to make any decent return but it doesn't lose money and if I 'shop for odds' I might get up a few more %. But it's a lot of work for little return. Especially at my hobby amounts.
Anyway, sorry for the essay. I just frequently visit this board and am constantly surprised that there isn't any quantitative discussion ever going on.
Is there anybody out that does this? I'd love to hear from you guys.