My official betting thread

Remove this Banner Ad

Status
Not open for further replies.

Log in to remove this ad.

I had no play on the SB. It's my dead zone time (no bets apart from steam), and I'm working daily on upgrading AFL, NRL and S15.

AFL was finished last week (took me 3 months). NRL will be done before the season starts, S15 might be a week or two into the season.

AFL should be the strongest model (I have access to game variable history on the cheap from ProWess sports; Champion Data are mongrels). I was gonna do down to the player vs player level in my modelling, but I'm running out of time.

Not so sure about NRL and S15. When the NRL's/S15's official data provider is quoting you $30K minimum for a match variable database, you're left with a lot less to work with. The mainstay of the NRL/S15 models is a neural network of ATS trends, combined with some HFA stuff and a composite blend of a few power ratings. However I'll still be working with some NRL heads from Sydney and Brisbane, so I'm hoping we do OK.

I'm also expecting the downward trend of MSE to continue on the NRL line, making it harder to find profits. Whoever starting slamming the NRL market in the 2008 season I'd assume will continue to do so (there's a distinct kink and concerted downward move in MSE starting from 2008, I don't exactly know who they are, but I can see the effect of what they do to the market).
 
Brett, I'm bloody happy you're alive. I genuinely mean that. I absolutely thought there was a chance some wack jobs had taken you for whatever reason. All I have to say is this: Glad you're oK, genuinely, and hope that whatever stopped you from posting for that recent period, it's all dissolved. I, and I say this with complete seriousness, enjoy reading what you have to say, and reading your opinion; and this forum is the lesser for you being gone.

(Turn around.... every now and then I get a little bit lonesone and you're never comin round....)

But Brett it seems you've given into the plebs. Man, surely you're smarter/stronger than the plebs. To fire you up, I have a song for you to listen to:



KardiniaPark
 
Glad you're oK, genuinely, and hope that whatever stopped you from posting for that recent period, it's all dissolved.
Click to expand...

It's called working nearly every waking hour to figure out how to crush the spread. My life is gym, sleep, eat, sports modelling. No time for tail (I just got burned my one, those conniving snakes of things). I'm FT in this now. I rarely even smash piss with the boys anymore (having most of them getting married off doesn't help either). Fortunately steam is doing excellently for me, although Sportsbet have essentially restricted me to peanuts on everything now though; so i'm not so stressed.

Nice choice on the song. Love Jimmy and love Chisel. Right now i'm more like "Cheap wine and a 3 day growth". Haha.
 
That's because people like you do not really believe they can ever beat the market long term. When you don't believe you really can, you don't put in the effort. And effort is what seems to be evidently lacking around here from most people (bar I think Duritz and maybe a couple of others).

If you think you can look up a few ATS trends (useless in major international sports), check out a few previews, and read up up on a few forums, you are kidding yourself if you believe that modelling methodology has long term edge. Funnily enough I had a few meetings with a tout service that charge a substantial amount to its clientele, and as with the process as I described above, that was all they did (that actually blew my mind, they won't be in business for long).

If you ever listen to 2/5th's of f*ck all from what every chump had to say, you get no where in life.
 
That what you have (only) recently learnt about tout services has "blown your mind" says more about your naivete than anything else.

You berate others for not putting in as much effort as you (i.e. 99% of the population), and summise that the "tout" won't be in business too long.

What keeps a tout in business? Idiots. Lemmings. People looking for shortcuts. People who don't have time/inclination to put in effort - i.e. 99% of the population.


The tout will have plenty of business come his way. And he won't even have to bet Kelly.
 
That what you have (only) recently learnt about tout services has "blown your mind" says more about your naivete than anything else.
Click to expand...

What's so naive about expecting some ability in what a business provides when they are a charging a client a handsome figure? That's what I call wanting to stay in business for the long term.

The tout will have plenty of business come his way. And he won't even have to bet Kelly.
Click to expand...

There's tout services, and then there's tout services. When I think of a decent tout service, I think of RAS or Dr Bob. I expected some semblance of modelling ability when speaking to these guys, they had zero. I think they now know they are already clutching at straws and are sweating on this fact daily.

I have been in this semi-seriously (and now seriously) for three years, I've watched probably two dozen tout services come and go in that time, most of these become fly-by-night operations when they realize they can't beat the market.
 
brett128 said:
That's because people like you do not really believe they can ever beat the market long term. When you don't believe you really can, you don't put in the effort. And effort is what seems to be evidently lacking around here from most people (bar I think Duritz and maybe a couple of others).

If you think you can look up a few ATS trends (useless in major international sports), check out a few previews, and read up up on a few forums, you are kidding yourself if you believe that modelling methodology has long term edge. Funnily enough I had a few meetings with a tout service that charge a substantial amount to its clientele, and as with the process as I described above, that was all they did (that actually blew my mind, they won't be in business for long).

If you ever listen to 2/5th's of f*ck all from what every chump had to say, you get no where in life.
Click to expand...

Yeah Lenny29 you JERK.

Did you know there was also a lenny07 and Lenny08 and lenny20 ? I wonder if they just ******* scrape through life like you and don't put in the effort.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

brett128 said:
That's because people like you do not really believe they can ever beat the market long term. When you don't believe you really can, you don't put in the effort. And effort is what seems to be evidently lacking around here from most people (bar I think Duritz and maybe a couple of others).
Click to expand...

well, no. i mean i'm not betting zillions of dollars but i've turned my original bankroll into almost 24x that bankroll in about 5 years on a fairly gradual improvement. 23x in 5 years is nothing worth quitting my job over or anything like that but from a base of not much i'm pretty pleased with how I've gone (inb4 "yeah but you've won $50k in free bets ho ho ho" from KP). maybe eventually the market will beat me. but i'm pretty comfortable that what i do is robust and generally going in the right direction albeit with peaks and troughs along the steady incline

i've put in lots of effort in my spare time, and even in my "work" time when things are slow. but i keep a happy balance and don't obsess about it. it's a nice earner but not my life.

that you have freely shown that you do nothing but eat/sleep/gym/punt (or whatever word you want to use in place of punt) and cutting out chasing women and drinking with your mates, especially in the context of this thread where you've lost most of your bankroll and clearly are obsessing about getting it back is probably as clear a sign of being a bad gambler in need of help as anyone's likely to see
 
I either have built, am building, or know how to build everything that you could build yourself, so lay it on.

Regression models, logistic regression models, discriminant analysis, MCMC models, neural networks, decision trees, SVM's, naive Bayesian methodologies, vector based approaches, short term ATS approaches, situational ATS approaches, HFA approaches, the list goes on.

The only other industries that use these methodologies extensively for capital gain are financial and insurance markets (which sports betting has much in common with).

So prey tell, which one do you do?

And if you don't know what I am talking about, you do not have any hope of edge.
 
brett128 said:
I either have built, am building, or know how to build everything that you could build yourself, so lay it on.

Regression models, logistic regression models, discriminant analysis, MCMC models, neural networks, decision trees, SVM's, naive Bayesian methodologies, vector based approaches, short term ATS approaches, situational ATS approaches, HFA approaches, the list goes on.
Click to expand...
LOL. so unless i have all this textbook bullshit i can't have an edge? do me a favour then: use all these advanced models to tell me what the odds are that i can improve my bankroll 23x over 5 years just via dumb luck
 
Lenny29 said:
i don't profess to have an enormous edge but i frame my own markets using a combination of gut feel (low), accumulated data based on the season thus far and historical H2H type data and appear to have at least a small edge. by taking best odds across a series of books each game's market is around 101-102% anyway so it doesn't take an enormous edge to be profitable

there's also been mathematically taking advantage of bookie offers etc but that's understandably drying up
Click to expand...

Usually a methodology can encapsulated by using a 'term', like the terms I expressed above.

If you do not understand where your methodology falls in this analysis spectrum (because you have no experience in these areas), than you are fighting an uphill battle. If you are 'playing' with the data and doing analysis 'by eye' using your own hackneyed methods, I tell ya what dude, you've got not a hope in hell of comprehensively beating the market.

Yeah sure, a person with a sharp mind and a little bit of rational investigation can exist on the periphery of the sports betting world, taking advantages of mis-priced props, other derivatives with small limits, bonus chasing, promos, steam chasing, etc. I am doing that too. I attack props with small limits all the time on US sports, I steam chase, I do a lot of these 'peripheral activities', and I can get by fine just doing that. There is no denying you likely have that capability yourself.

But you will never crush the main markets with big liquidity, and you will never bend the market to your will through the sheer weight of your bankroll. That is my goal, and I don't stop something until I achieve what I've set out to achieve.
 
brett128 said:
Yeah sure, a person with a sharp mind and a little bit of rational investigation can exist on the periphery of the sports betting world, taking advantages of mis-priced props, other derivatives with small limits, bonus chasing, promos, steam chasing, etc. I am doing that too. I attack props with small limits all the time on US sports, I steam chase, I do a lot of these 'peripheral activities', and I can get by fine just doing that. There is no denying you likely have that capability yourself.

But you will never crush the main markets with big liquidity, and you will never bend the market to your will through the sheer weight of your bankroll. That is my goal, and I don't stop something until I achieve what I've set out to achieve.
Click to expand...
like i said, bad gambler stuff. why do you need to crush the market? why do you need to bend the market to your will? especially since you need to focus so intently on it that its to the detriment of your social life?

my goal, FWIW, is to pay off my mortgage via punting. a long way off but as the bankroll slowly grows and the mortgage slowly decreases, they will eventually meet. how does going "heh heh, my bet changed the markets from -3.5 to -4.5, * i'm awesome" improve your life?
 
Lenny29 said:
LOL. so unless i have all this textbook bullshit i can't have an edge? do me a favour then: use all these advanced models to tell me what the odds are that i can improve my bankroll 23x over 5 years just via dumb luck
Click to expand...

Dude, I took literally $20 when starting off playing SHNL Hold Em' online, and 3 years later had $70K in my accounts (18 months of which was full time work). It's not really a big deal. Economies of scale a very important when you are analyzing things.

If you took $100K, and turned it into $2.3M in sports betting, you'd probably be in the top 5 sharpest sports betting minds in this country at least. If you started with $100, or even $1k, it's not that much of an achievement. Besides, do you understand what survival bias means?

Do you understand how to assess your performance in terms of standard deviation from an expected population of results? Again if you don't know what I'm talking about, you really are kidding yourself if you think you have some sort of special ability.
 
brett128 said:
Do you understand how to assess your performance in terms of standard deviation from an expected population of results? Again if you don't know what I'm talking about, you really are kidding yourself if you think you have some sort of special ability.
Click to expand...
there is precisely one person in this thread that thinks he has some sort of special ability. this person has demonstrated how to lose a sizable chunk of his bankroll doing exactly what those with no special ability warned against (betting full kelly)
 
Lenny29 said:
like i said, bad gambler stuff. why do you need to crush the market? why do you need to bend the market to your will? especially since you need to focus so intently on it that its to the detriment of your social life?

my goal, FWIW, is to pay off my mortgage via punting. a long way off but as the bankroll slowly grows and the mortgage slowly decreases, they will eventually meet. how does going "heh heh, my bet changed the markets from -3.5 to -4.5, **** i'm awesome" improve your life?
Click to expand...

You make one crucial assumption that is critically wrong. I do not do this for 'easy money', I've knocked back a lot of good opportunities in life (career life that is), because they were not the terms of how I wanted to earn a living.

Money does not drive me in the slightest, mastery does. Whether your a plumber, lawyer, athlete, whatever, you want to do the best you can do, not really to earn a higher wage, but because you feel contented in knowing that you are really good at something. We humans are fickle, insecure creatures, we all need assurance that we can be master our own reality/destiny in some way.

I am motivated by vindicating an idea I've had for many years in relation to expected rate of return in sports betting vs conventional financial markets, and strive to validate this notion through crushing the market. What's wrong with ambition?

You can stick to paying your mortgage (not being sarcastic, owning your own house is an awesome goal), and I'll stick to trying to crush the market.
 
Lenny29 said:
there is precisely one person in this thread that thinks he has some sort of special ability. this person has demonstrated how to lose a sizable chunk of his bankroll doing exactly what those with no special ability warned against (betting full kelly)
Click to expand...


Why do you skirt all my questions? Is it because you can't answer any of them?
 
brett128 said:
Why do you skirt all my questions? Is it because you can't answer any of them?
Click to expand...
******* LOL after how this thread has turned out

no, i am not aware of how to model all the textbook crap you have mentioned in this thread. i understand at a vague level most of the concepts but the formulae required - nope. what i am aware of is how to track my money making (and what loses as well) and that's what this is all about. would be a fairly large string of variance for my bankroll to be continuing to grow after all this time
 
I'm not sure "bending the market" to ones will is really possible. Say you price up a team at 1.50 h2h and the market is 2.20, to back it to the point where you bend the market to your will is to back it right down to about 1.60. Problem is, it's not likely that your 1.50 assessment is accurate. Perhaps it'sreally a 2.0 chance. You have an edge at 2.20, 2.10 etc but if you're still backing it at 1.9, 1.8, 1.7, on the basis of your 1.50 assessment then you're really taking unders.
 
Duritz said:
I'm not sure "bending the market" to ones will is really possible. Say you price up a team at 1.50 h2h and the market is 2.20, to back it to the point where you bend the market to your will is to back it right down to about 1.60. Problem is, it's not likely that your 1.50 assessment is accurate. Perhaps it'sreally a 2.0 chance. You have an edge at 2.20, 2.10 etc but if you're still backing it at 1.9, 1.8, 1.7, on the basis of your 1.50 assessment then you're really taking unders.
Click to expand...


I define 'bending the market to my will' as betting enough into the market, where the price moves to the point until where you consider the next cent (or half point) in movement to have neutral EV. Yeah you may be wrong about your inferred price, but overall if you are big enough to do this at that point in your BR's existence, then your inferred price is going to better than the market's. And that's all you need to do.

If you can achieve 57+% ATS over a number of years, you will very quickly reach this point (even at 55%+ you will eventually reach this point). Suffice to say there are other are already others 'bending the market' in sports betting in Australia. As I said before, I can see their implied existence by they how effect line efficiency.

It's about time too, this country has never really taken sports betting seriously, the markets are fat with dumb liquidity, and so it's ripe for the take down by very smart people with large BR's.

You would have seen this yourself Duritz, when looking at the history of big horse racing syndicates (Zeljko, Don Scott, etc). They have BR sizes that move the market to the point where there is no more inferred EV (in their eyes).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

H
HTP Purton Bets
Replies
11
Views
1K
HTPunter
H

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top