Myr - myer

[Mordecai]

First few days have been rough. Entered at a bad time.

Orderly selling thus far.

2.90 looks to be my entry.

Thoughts on Myer?

 

[r dub 19]

Sell and get back in later.

 

[DaftPunk]

Kochie was one of the only well known 'finance' type guys who came out and said Myer was a good investment.


If anything it proves he knows nothing, or is a sell out.


This stock was picked as a dog, overpriced IPO and a poor performer.


The guy should say sorry to all those people who conned into buying the stock with his finance column in the News Limited papers when the IPO was on.


* Do not hold, nor have ever held MYR

 

[Fire]

It’s not connected to anything in this thread so far, but I don't understand how anyone could possibly think that retail shares are a good idea.

The retail market can conditions are fundamentally altering due to the advent of the internet and excessive house prices.

Beyond supermarkets and major warehouses, I don't see a rosy long term for retail.That includes MYR and JBH.

 

[Godzke]

Beyond supermarkets and major warehouses, I don't see a rosy long term for retail.That includes MYR and JBH.

Anyone who invests in JBH is asking for trouble. Suppliers like Apple and Dell will always look to skip the middle man and more companies are adopting that approach.

Whatever JBH can get their hands on they'll be priced out of the market by ebay and other online sellers. Tipping the business to shrink by 75% before 2015.

Products like the iPad bridge the gap between online shopping and technically incompetent older folk who have nfi how to turn a computer on.

 

[Fire]

Anyone who invests in JBH is asking for trouble. Suppliers like Apple and Dell will always look to skip the middle man and more companies are adopting that approach.

Whatever JBH can get their hands on they'll be priced out of the market by ebay and other online sellers. Tipping the business to shrink by 75% before 2015.

Products like the iPad bridge the gap between online shopping and technically incompetent older folk who have nfi how to turn a computer on.

I think JBH's issues run far deeper. They are a CD store in 2000 at the moment.

I've watched investor's excitement of this business with confusion over the last few years. CD stores are well and truly on the way out, and DVD's will be next very soon. Blu-Ray will be the last hard format- its all going digital. Games, for both PC and consoles, will become increasingly digital over this current generation as online vendors like steam continue gaining market share. The growth of XBLA and PSN. The next generation of consoles are years away and by then they will probably be 100% digital. EB will be toast.

Walk into any JBH store and see what's left once you take away all of the above. Add the market forces like those you listed and they have nothing going for them. Big, empty warehouses with a handful of overpriced hardware.

This future has been obvious for years now. Digital distribution will take over all forms of physical mediums of IP. Even books and newspapers will now eventually be moved onto digital platforms. There is a fundamental revolution in retail happening right now. Video rental stores aren't coming back. Killed by digital distribution. CD stores aren’t coming back. Killed by digital distribution. Book stores are failing as customers move to digital distribution. EB and Game are holding their breath as their PC game range is limited to a single shelf, just waiting for the consoles to follow. JBH is on the wrong side of this revolution by a long way. And it should be obvious to all.

 

[Godzke]

Yep, would agree with all that. I was going to mention EB Games but I thought I'd keep it relevant to Myer.

I've been trying to scout out these online industries as they continue to grow. Can't seem to get any info on them. Don't seem to see any IPOs or maybe I'm looking in the wrong place.

 

[Fire]

Yep, would agree with all that. I was going to mention EB Games but I thought I'd keep it relevant to Myer.

I've been trying to scout out these online industries as they continue to grow. Can't seem to get any info on them. Don't seem to see any IPOs or maybe I'm looking in the wrong place.

NASDAQ.

But it's not what you would think.

I work for a US based games developer. So I own a number of shares on that market. But US IT companies are ran pretty much like non profit organisations, they almost always usually re-invest all their profits into their business. So there sonly capital growth potential, and in an industry like this, that’s always a big risk.

As you said, a lot of these online industries will be going direct to customers, so you'd be looking directly at the developers. Apple own the app store, and are increasingly distributing their own product, so you can look at getting some apple if you want that. Again, don't expect a dividend payment on them, and they are already priced.

Steam is owned by Valve, who are a private company’s o you can't invest in them. Other games devs all have their own online stores so you can invest in them if you think they will take off. personally, I think markets like these tend to form a monopoly, and so that will be the domain of Valve for the foreseeable future.

Sony will own the PSN, Microsoft the XBLA. Don’t know about Sony, but don't expect a dividend from Microsoft. Again, they are priced in. Google owns android and I believe their app store. They are making ground on apple, but again, Google is priced in and don’t expect a return.

Amazon would be the leader in e-books. Don’t expect a dividend from them. They are priced in. And with Apple's stranglehold on their e-readers bleeding them dry, its looking likely that Amazon won't make much from this market, if it even remains viable for them at all.

Which leads is to movies. I have no idea how this will unfold. Telstra might actually be a local driver in this area, but I wouldn't recommend them on this, as they are unlikely to compete with global distributors longer term, and in any event they own 50% of foxtel, which is on the way out as well.

Thats my take on it all anyway. Unfortunately I don't see much opportunity for mum and dad investors in this market.

Its worth noting as well that while it's inevitable, there may not be a lot of money in digital distribution outside of a select few.

 

[Godzke]

Fair enough about the start ups.

As for movies/music, torrents are the way to go. Regardless of its legality, if your average joe sees his average mate doing it without any ramifications then he'll cotton on as well.

 

[Fire]

Fair enough about the start ups.

As for movies/music, torrents are the way to go. Regardless of its legality, if your average joe sees his average mate doing it without any ramifications then he'll cotton on as well.

I disagree.

There will always be torrents, but as has been seen witht he music industry, as soon as the film/tv industrues shift towards an online based model, there will be a profitable market. Particularily when families can jsut download and watch a movie from their TV from a site like itunes.

Which is why I don;t see a market for smaller players in digital distribution. As I said, IT tends to form a monopoly.

So while someone will make money off it, i don't know who. But they will be a major player.

 

[Godzke]

Depends on your take. One would say Itunes has the online monopoly for music but for every song paid off there I bet there's 10 downloaded illegally. Can't see them stamping it out either.

Ditto film industry.

 

[Fire]

Depends on your take. One would say Itunes has the online monopoly for music but for every song paid off there I bet there's 10 downloaded illegally. Can't see them stamping it out either.

Ditto film industry.

Again I agree that there will always be illegal downloads of IP of all forms. In fact, I would wager that's the major push behind this digital distribution we have seen over the last decade. It's people power telling the market what they want.

But that doesn't make legitimate digital distribution will fail, or be unprofitable. In fact, for many people, it will be easier to just get content like this legitimatley, for the right price. DRM can't stop the illegal downloading, but it can make it difficult and dangerous enough for people to jsut download it legally when the option is right in front of them.

 

[Kram]

Calling this a dog is being kind!

 

[Kram]

Surely the final nail in the coffin.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/myer-shuts-stores-in-wake-of-covid-19