RAC - Race Oncology
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- #27
RAC dropping their biggest news of the year the day before their AGM.
TLDR: More than half the time anti-cancer drugs end up causing heart disease within 6 years of treatment as they're incredibly harsh. When anti-cancer drugs are paired with RAC's product Zantrene the heart is protected or rescued from the damage. Given millions of cancer patients are treated each year there is a seriously decent potential market for this. Further trials to commence next year. This is a secondary use for Zantrene, as its primary function is still FTO inhibition.
There's more than 3 million people who are affected by breast cancer per year. At US$5k a pop for Zantrene to be used in conjunction with anti-cancer drugs that's US$15b per year potential revenue. The next 12 months are going to be an incredible journey.
Current share price +12.43% to $3.80
TLDR: More than half the time anti-cancer drugs end up causing heart disease within 6 years of treatment as they're incredibly harsh. When anti-cancer drugs are paired with RAC's product Zantrene the heart is protected or rescued from the damage. Given millions of cancer patients are treated each year there is a seriously decent potential market for this. Further trials to commence next year. This is a secondary use for Zantrene, as its primary function is still FTO inhibition.
There's more than 3 million people who are affected by breast cancer per year. At US$5k a pop for Zantrene to be used in conjunction with anti-cancer drugs that's US$15b per year potential revenue. The next 12 months are going to be an incredible journey.
Current share price +12.43% to $3.80
- Mar 27, 2018
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great news for both Investors and society.
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- #29
A repost from the General Markets Thread:
Regarding the RAC cap raise it's a defensive manoeuvre to sure up the balance sheet and prevent a lowball takeover offer from being accepted.
Bill Garner and MoF still hold millions of shares between them and have demonstrated that they're only interested in cashing out and banking the profit.
By doing a cap raise that limits all shareholders to a maximum purchase of 10k shares it limits the ability of these two players to buy and flip shares, and dilutes their holdings by 6% which means they've got less say if/when a lowball offer comes in 2022.
Additionally management are aware that retail investors are more inclined to hold longer term, which is good news for the share price in the medium term, less so short term while the market swings over the next 3 weeks.
Also having an extra $30m in the bank allows them to expedite the heart safety trials, run a stack more trials and reject lowball offers because they can wait it out. The board aren't worried about the share price now, they're thinking 12 months down the line on how the company can be best positioned to maximise value.
I'm all in on RAC already, so trying to find another $30k in 3 weeks will be like getting blood out of a stone but I'll do my best to make it happen, as the potential for Zantrene as an FTO inhibitor and heart safety agent is truly once in a generation.
TLDR: RAC cap raise was artfully done to prevent people buying and flipping discounted stocks
Regarding the RAC cap raise it's a defensive manoeuvre to sure up the balance sheet and prevent a lowball takeover offer from being accepted.
Bill Garner and MoF still hold millions of shares between them and have demonstrated that they're only interested in cashing out and banking the profit.
By doing a cap raise that limits all shareholders to a maximum purchase of 10k shares it limits the ability of these two players to buy and flip shares, and dilutes their holdings by 6% which means they've got less say if/when a lowball offer comes in 2022.
Additionally management are aware that retail investors are more inclined to hold longer term, which is good news for the share price in the medium term, less so short term while the market swings over the next 3 weeks.
Also having an extra $30m in the bank allows them to expedite the heart safety trials, run a stack more trials and reject lowball offers because they can wait it out. The board aren't worried about the share price now, they're thinking 12 months down the line on how the company can be best positioned to maximise value.
I'm all in on RAC already, so trying to find another $30k in 3 weeks will be like getting blood out of a stone but I'll do my best to make it happen, as the potential for Zantrene as an FTO inhibitor and heart safety agent is truly once in a generation.
TLDR: RAC cap raise was artfully done to prevent people buying and flipping discounted stocks
Your thoughts on Dr T being kicked off HC?
I thought it was good, though unusual, to have a director post so much on HC. He was clear, concise with info but its a shocking look being kicked off a socials platform too.
I thought it was good, though unusual, to have a director post so much on HC. He was clear, concise with info but its a shocking look being kicked off a socials platform too.
Gigantic
Brownlow Medallist
What happened?
Edit: Just caught up. Such a shame, Dr T's posts were very informative on HC.
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Yeah i thought so too. He answered questions which many were thinking so gave clarity in one place. Probably also saved him time as now he will get emails and waste time answering individually where he could be working. Posting there was convenient
Gave into trolls too easily in the end and questioned the asx decisions but not sure worthy of leaving/banning. Theres much worse on there that goes unpunished...
Wont affect anything material, just odd events is all
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- #33
It was his own fault, and shows that even very intelligent men can make dumb decisions. Posting a screenshot of an annoucement that the ASX knocked back was a poor call and he's paid the price for it accordingly.
The more concerning bit for me is people wanting to now shift over to Bullseye (or set up a RAC specific forum) and boycott HC, which is cutting off the nose to spite the face. People use HC as a source of DD and staying in touch with announcements and sentiment. If you had to specifically register and visit a whole other forum just for one specific stock while all your other info is on HC then you're less likely to buy that individual stock, or less likely to hold it moving forward. Stick to HC and let Dr T publish a weekly newsletter or engage on the Facebook group if he feels it's that important to stay engaged with the shareholders.
I was more annoyed by Culity selling down 300,000 shares (3% of his holdings), as that suggests he doesn't have confidence in the $4.50 options ending up in the money come May. Dr T knew this in advance and that's why he bought 20,000 shares on market to try keep the sentiment.
Side note while I'm here the pivot away from the initial plan of approaching big pharma at the end of 2021 makes things a bit murkier as well. With the new strategy being to combine Zantrene with PD-1 inhibitors where the patents are due to expire in the next 3-5 years it allows the new formulation to be patented all over again, with RAC and XYZ big pharma company splitting the profits (though who gets what would remain to be seen). The idea is great, especially when coupled with the companion diagnostic and oral formulation we expect an outcome on in 2022, but it's also more of a risk than just selling Zantrene and making a clean break. RAC is now even more risk and more reward than it was before, and my initial plan to hold until buyout may be revised if they don't get the ball moving in 2022.
The more concerning bit for me is people wanting to now shift over to Bullseye (or set up a RAC specific forum) and boycott HC, which is cutting off the nose to spite the face. People use HC as a source of DD and staying in touch with announcements and sentiment. If you had to specifically register and visit a whole other forum just for one specific stock while all your other info is on HC then you're less likely to buy that individual stock, or less likely to hold it moving forward. Stick to HC and let Dr T publish a weekly newsletter or engage on the Facebook group if he feels it's that important to stay engaged with the shareholders.
I was more annoyed by Culity selling down 300,000 shares (3% of his holdings), as that suggests he doesn't have confidence in the $4.50 options ending up in the money come May. Dr T knew this in advance and that's why he bought 20,000 shares on market to try keep the sentiment.
Side note while I'm here the pivot away from the initial plan of approaching big pharma at the end of 2021 makes things a bit murkier as well. With the new strategy being to combine Zantrene with PD-1 inhibitors where the patents are due to expire in the next 3-5 years it allows the new formulation to be patented all over again, with RAC and XYZ big pharma company splitting the profits (though who gets what would remain to be seen). The idea is great, especially when coupled with the companion diagnostic and oral formulation we expect an outcome on in 2022, but it's also more of a risk than just selling Zantrene and making a clean break. RAC is now even more risk and more reward than it was before, and my initial plan to hold until buyout may be revised if they don't get the ball moving in 2022.
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- #34
Starting to get quite annoyed with Dr T and his doublespeak. For a bloke that "doesn't have enough time" due to everything that's happening at RAC and "tells new hires that if things go well working at RAC will be the last job they ever need" joining the board of SIS seems a bit contradictory to that. We've got a number of overdue Q4 announcements that still haven't dropped, our mergers and partnerships guy selling down shares, and all but written confirmation the $4.50 options won't end up ITM. For a company with so much potential they're doing a poor job of instilling confidence.
Trying to do too much it seems, he also has his own business on top of that...
Have you posted this to HC or that new one? I'd love to see the reaction for some of the more hardcore posters as it is valid criticism.
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- #36
There was a big blow up on the Facebook page a couple of days ago that goes through the grievances.
I jumped at the SPP yet prices have gone below that and haven't added yet. Market really mucks with your mind sometimes
News has felt imminent for weeks with nothing coming. Fingers crossed
Don't think the $4.50 options will get in the money by expiry in May though
News has felt imminent for weeks with nothing coming. Fingers crossed
Don't think the $4.50 options will get in the money by expiry in May though
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- #38
What a hectic few days. Dropped from $2.77 on March 7 to $2.21 on March 8. Then stacks on 14.35% today to get back to $2.63.
3-4 price sensitive announcements expected by end of March, and there should be no further delays due to covid.
Can't see the options ending up ITM though, if they do I'll be very happily wrong.
3-4 price sensitive announcements expected by end of March, and there should be no further delays due to covid.
Can't see the options ending up ITM though, if they do I'll be very happily wrong.
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- #39
Evolved1 to answer your question from the crypto thread:
I'm pretty confident in the trial data released so far. Everything they've released to date shows that Zantrene is an effective FTO inhibitor and enhances existing standards of care by either performing better than current drug on market as a standalone drug, or when used in conjunction with existing treatments. In my view there hasn't been any trial data in the last 3 years that has raised cause for concern, and there's a swag of trial data to follow over the next 12 months now that they've got trials up and running.
Expecting at least one (maybe two) partnership agreement by end of 2022 which should hopefully trigger a re-rate. RAC's CSO has also stated there's results they can't release to the market as of yet as they need to first secure the provisional patent applications, which is also a very good sign. I suspect they have also figured out the mechanism of action but can't release it without first locking down the patents. To a lesser extent there's two other bits of info that will add decent value this year, the companion diagnostic is ticking a box for potential suitors, and an oral formulation will no doubt be under-appreciated by the market but in of itself would be an absolute game changer for patient treatment.
I'm pretty confident in the trial data released so far. Everything they've released to date shows that Zantrene is an effective FTO inhibitor and enhances existing standards of care by either performing better than current drug on market as a standalone drug, or when used in conjunction with existing treatments. In my view there hasn't been any trial data in the last 3 years that has raised cause for concern, and there's a swag of trial data to follow over the next 12 months now that they've got trials up and running.
Expecting at least one (maybe two) partnership agreement by end of 2022 which should hopefully trigger a re-rate. RAC's CSO has also stated there's results they can't release to the market as of yet as they need to first secure the provisional patent applications, which is also a very good sign. I suspect they have also figured out the mechanism of action but can't release it without first locking down the patents. To a lesser extent there's two other bits of info that will add decent value this year, the companion diagnostic is ticking a box for potential suitors, and an oral formulation will no doubt be under-appreciated by the market but in of itself would be an absolute game changer for patient treatment.
Not as many big anns as id have liked to this point now. Feels like theres always news due but little actual impacting news gets announced.
Once my coal investments have run their course im splitting it into RAC and IXR so dont announce anything just yet
Once my coal investments have run their course im splitting it into RAC and IXR so dont announce anything just yet
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- #41
Suspect we'll get a glut of info just prior to the AGM on Nov 24. Will be flying up to Sydney for the day to attend and get a bit of a feel of how things are faring behind the scenes.
Did you end up attending mate? Any notes or newsworthy goss you can share with us?
Just reading the ann and HC thread now. Alot of people "reading between the lines" there but that sub is getting a bit culty so their reads are very bias. Your thoughts?
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- #43
Yep, went along. No real news other than more trials for more data. No plans to start marketing at the end of this year (which is what they'd said they'd do at the 2021 AGM) but they will start marketing 'in 2023'. Expect a cardio valuation put together by John Cullity to drop in the next 3-4 weeks.
The sub has always been a bit culty, and Dr Tillett irritates me no end for his complete lack of communication skills and total unwillingness to take feedback. I'd prefer to switch out to a CSO who has the experience in taking small cap biotechs to sale. With that said I still believe in Zantrene, and Phil Lynch is the right CEO, it's just a case of waiting it out.
Side note I did sell out 1/3 of my RAC shares to fund a house deposit, which was largely due to the landlord increasing my rent and RAC pushing back buyout plans.
Your thoughts?
Its a pain in the fact they're trying to do so much on a small caps budget. 3 pillars were on the go then they basically fall backwards into cardio protection which will be massive in its own right should they nail it. Due to fingers in so many pies timelines get pushed back further and further which in a slow moving space, the market moves on. I think thats happened here tbh. Risk/reward there's nothing like it on the asx but can they pull it off? Thats the gamble and sometimes i question having my largest holding in a small team trying to do so much...
I think DCA/hold and reassess EOFY is my plan. Might try and get another 4-5000 shares if I sell coal holdings. You probably make a good point in bringing someone in who has runs on the board taking these to sale. Wont happen though...
Did you meet anyone or learn anything new there? Really wondering where the HC faithful got there "read between the lines" rubbish from. Did management even allude to anything or have they simply dreamt this
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- #45
Dr T mentioned on Bullseye to 'read between the lines' of the FDA announcement released last week. They also expanded on at the AGM the misstep of running an AML trial out of Newcastle rather than several sites, which they're now addressing as they have yet to recruit a single patient for it. Agree about holding until EOFY and reassessing from there.
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- #46
New CEO after Phil Lynch steps aside now the right replacement has been found.
Phil was only ever planning on being a temporary CEO, and he's done a fantastic job in the interim with regards to strategy.
Bodes very well for the next 12 months!
Phil was only ever planning on being a temporary CEO, and he's done a fantastic job in the interim with regards to strategy.
Bodes very well for the next 12 months!
