Analysis Slaying a few myths

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It won't matter who coaches us, in the short term we are what we are, perhaps the only thing we could do different is throw the youngsters in the deep end and see what happens and try to play a deeper midfield of ball winners while Gibbs, Judd and Murphy are still there to support them. The question we need to ask is that 'is Malthouse doing the right things to see us go forward and improve our list'? I think he is, I think it would be silly to not expect some poor footy/seasons during a rebuild. If we make the 8 it will be a miracle and Mick should be given another three years. Lets hope we finish in the upper part of the bottom 10 and show a bit.

I just hope we're being run by cool headed intelligent people who understand where we are, what to expect of us and where we are intending to go. I hope those people understand our past and learn from our past mistakes, particularly in regards to the draft. I hope we aren't pushing our coach and recruiter to do something outrageous like win a flag within the next few seasons.
 
Hopefully the club is giving Mick more than one game this season to prove himself.
If we look at this week in conjunction with the last few games from 2014, then Thursday was an anomaly (fingers crossed).
Otherwise I'm not looking forward to our third coach in four years.
Malthouse should get most if not all the season to make his case for a contract renewal. My misgiving is that he was recruited when our board was delusional about where we were at....we were miles off being contenders. Mick was not the icing on the premiership cake. At best we need 5 years+ to rebuild from the ground up. Is Mick the right man for that unenviable job?
 
It won't matter who coaches us, in the short term we are what we are, perhaps the only thing we could do different is throw the youngsters in the deep end and see what happens and try to play a deeper midfield of ball winners while Gibbs, Judd and Murphy are still there to support them. The question we need to ask is that 'is Malthouse doing the right things to see us go forward and improve our list'? I think he is, I think it would be silly to not expect some poor footy/seasons during a rebuild. If we make the 8 it will be a miracle and Mick should be given another three years. Lets hope we finish in the upper part of the bottom 10 and show a bit.

I just hope we're being run by cool headed intelligent people who understand where we are, what to expect of us and where we are intending to go. I hope those people understand our past and learn from our past mistakes, particularly in regards to the draft. I hope we aren't pushing our coach and recruiter to do something outrageous like win a flag within the next few seasons.
I think that ******* Bruce Mathieson still has too many fingers in the club atm. He controls a good segment of the board and has friends at lower levels. It isnt going to help the club at all to have him around pulling strings. It's deluded old farts like him that is keeping the club mired in the 80's and early 90's when we should be fully embracing the modern era.

I have said a couple of times that John Elliott stuck around for too long after the 95 grand final win. If he had pissed off and let some new blood come in, we could be still on top of the world. But no... he had to hang around trying to buy champions up from other clubs like the club used to do and as a consequence, we havent learnt how to utilise the draft properly.

Giving up a first round pick for a second rate midfielder is a disaster and would have had the opposition recruiters and list managers laughing harder than that dickhead from Essendon was apparently laughing when we selected Blaine with pick 19.
 

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I think that ******* Bruce Mathieson still has too many fingers in the club atm. He controls a good segment of the board and has friends at lower levels. It isnt going to help the club at all to have him around pulling strings. It's deluded old farts like him that is keeping the club mired in the 80's and early 90's when we should be fully embracing the modern era.

I have said a couple of times that John Elliott stuck around for too long after the 95 grand final win. If he had pissed off and let some new blood come in, we could be still on top of the world. But no... he had to hang around trying to buy champions up from other clubs like the club used to do and as a consequence, we havent learnt how to utilise the draft properly.

Giving up a first round pick for a second rate midfielder is a disaster and would have had the opposition recruiters and list managers laughing harder than that dickhead from Essendon was apparently laughing when we selected Blaine with pick 19.

Certainly right about Jack Elliott, he was just the wrong person for the times.

I know we've had a lot of disliking for Bruce Mathison, even I have found his comments at the time a bit much but the more I think about it, the harder I find to fault what he's said, particularly regarding our recruiting. All of a sudden Rogers recruiting, while better looking than Hughes may be looking a bit shaky. I'm not going to be too critical just yet but it's not looking anywhere near elite and he was working with Hughes too who's record wasn't good.

We've never learnt to utilise the draft, which is kind of Mathison's main argument isn't it?

I'm very unconvinced with Blain Boekhorst at the moment but I'm willing to give it time. Kids got a long long way to go.
 
Buying quality players with good pedigree is fine,
they help foster good skills and wining team culture and give the younger players time to develop and mature. Just watch Hawthorn's new recruits flourish this year.
But hey, we have to be to indentify and select quality characters first , to develop. That 's the urgent area and then hopefully the rest will come.
It's all about the balance of things at the moment we have gaps to plug everywhere.
Ciao
 
Certainly right about Jack Elliott, he was just the wrong person for the times.

I know we've had a lot of disliking for Bruce Mathison, even I have found his comments at the time a bit much but the more I think about it, the harder I find to fault what he's said, particularly regarding our recruiting. All of a sudden Rogers recruiting, while better looking than Hughes may be looking a bit shaky. I'm not going to be too critical just yet but it's not looking anywhere near elite and he was working with Hughes too who's record wasn't good.

We've never learnt to utilise the draft, which is kind of Mathison's main argument isn't it?

I'm very unconvinced with Blain Boekhorst at the moment but I'm willing to give it time. Kids got a long long way to go.

Can't argue with any of that but it's not the group think line so good luck ...
 
The Hawks drafted Roughy and Buddy in 2004, they were both starting to hit their straps in 2008 when the Hawks pinched a flag but it was 2012 by the time they had both been All Australians. 2005 to 20012 is a long time to be able to draft mids who dont take as much time to develop as KPP's.
 
The Hawks drafted Roughy and Buddy in 2004, they were both starting to hit their straps in 2008 when the Hawks pinched a flag but it was 2012 by the time they had both been All Australians. 2005 to 20012 is a long time to be able to draft mids who dont take as much time to develop as KPP's.

Yep would be good to get the talls first, maybe Silvagni will answer one of those requirements. I remember watching Hawthorn beat Adelaide in a final in 2007 and thinking that that team was going to win a premiership very soon. Was actually going to put a bit of money on them at the start of 2008 (Wish I had) because they were my flag tip, I think I prefered them over geelong because of their superior forward line. Either way I've never felt they pinched it in 2008. Getting those two guys in the one hit was one of the greatest recruiting strikes you'll ever see.
 
Over the years we Carlton supporters have been a fickle bunch. We jump on the bandwagons of certain players and castigate others without giving them a chance. We jump all over coaches and board members, presidents and CEOs and we either love them or hate them.

Let's hold that thought.

At the moment, we are going through a full blown rebuild.
St Kilda are going through a full blown rebuild. We are tinkering at best and just mucking around trading for fringe players at worst. I give you Jones, Tutt, Whiley, BB as exhibits A to D.

We brought in Mick Malthouse as the head coach to lead us to a premiership because in 2011 the team played way above their abilities and in 2012, suffered from injuries which cruelled our season and a certain wannabe kingmaker/powerbroker who has WAY too much influence in the backrooms at Princes Park got ahead of himself and thought that we were just a top class coach away from a premiership. So he agitated and pushed and generally got what he wanted in the end because we ended up sacking a beloved champion of the club to bring in Mick. At the time, some of us were carried along with the dreams of a premiership dawn while others of us knew that the squad we had was not a top 4 squad no matter what people said.

Just show me one post you made from 2012 to round 1 2013 that tells me you were one of those who knew the squad was not a top 4 squad. I happily admit to thinking that our 2013 list had the makings, well coached, of a top 4 team. We had lost nothing since we overachieved (according to you) in 2011 and gained significantly.

But I do agree with you MM was brought in to put us in the top 4 and, in this, he has undoubtedly been a massive fail.

Then when Mick got here, our players were shown to be massive one way runners... bereft of any real grasp of tactics and strategy because they knew how to use Ratten's game plan, which to be honest wasnt much of a game plan... get the ball, rush it forward anyway you could and then watch it head back over your head for an opposition score if you missed your target... which they did most of the time, and they couldnt adapt to a more defensive game plan.

Let me follow the logic here. You say our players lacked any grasp of tactics because they knew the Ratten game plan. The one they "overachieved" with in 2011.
Is it just me or doesn't that sound like Ratten was able to get through to them with his game plan. If he could how come MM can't?

Way back 13 years ago... the club got hammered for systematic salary cap infringements and Ron Evans and Wayne Jackson crippled us. We were an aging list with few quality youngsters in it and they took away the draft picks that we would have used to get the club back on track by picking up 2 exciting young players with picks 1 and 2. The fines crippled us financially and, I am going out on a limb here to say that Pagan didnt come cheap when Big Jack hired him to come in and replace Wayne Brittan.

We struggled to recruit anyone for the first 2 years because of the draft penalties and so we had to get in top up players. It didnt help us much because we were recruiting the dregs... because that was all we could afford to get. We couldnt entice big name players to join us because we had nothing to offer their clubs in way of value.

A lot of people bitch and moan about our recruiting over the last 12 years.

I don't know about alot of people but you are certainly right up there, no?


And I have been seeing some bitching from people about Daisy going out with a freak shoulder dislocation. So what? Andrew Walker suffered 3 shoulder injuries in 2 years that only saw him playing 13 games out of a possible 44 matches. And then in 2010 he wanted to be traded... after we spent 2 years rehabilitating him... he wanted out.

Daisy was hurt in a freak accident. Judd was hurt in a freak accident last year when he came back and lasted 8 minutes. People are bitching about Mick taking Daisy and us paying out a small fortune for him. Guess what... who gives a toss. It's only in the minds of some people that this bullshit is important. If Kreuzer hadnt done his knee in 2010, he would be one of the premier ruckmen in the league.

Now, lets get back to the important point from my second paragraph... a rebuild. Thats right... Carlton is going through a rebuild!

Well, if it is of any interest to you, I give a toss. Particularly if, as you claim, we are going through a rebuild. Who pays a small fortune for an outside mid at the back end of his career with a 2 year injury history and calls that any part of a sensible rebuild. (Hint: If you are rebuilding you get rid of such players and trade up in the National Draft for players like, I don't know, Wright and Laverde who might well be useless compared to say Jones, Tutt, Jaksch, Whiley and BB in 2015 but could be part of a vital team structure in 2018.

I can hear some of you saying that we have done rebuilds before... when? I can't remember a proper rebuild ever and I have been supporting Carlton for 46 years now. All we have done in the past when a bunch of guys have retired is recruit in a couple of kids and trade a bunch of picks for some guys in the age group where we can continue pressing for a premiership.
After winning the flag in 1982 we lost or started losing Fitzy, Buz, Southby, Perovic, Marcou, Harmes, Doull etc. In 1986 we brought in Sticks (25 games, 62 goals), Bradley (25 games and 30 goals), Dorotich (22), Evans (16 games and 26 goals), Gleeson (3), Hanna (1) and Motley(13).

Our rich "benefactors" have tried to keep us in that slot for as long as possible until such times as we are left with a couple of A grade players running around with a bunch of C and D grade players. Guys who should have only been in the side to make up numbers... not making up most of the numbers.

And we supporters thought that that side was capable of being a top 4 side.

Name names. Better still, refer to past posts when you named then current players who were C and D grade (whatever that means to you).

If we do as some people suggest and sack Mick before or at the end of the year, halfway through our rebuild, we are going to fall back into our "fake" rebuild mode where we go out and trade picks to try and get a bunch of guys who are experienced and we are going to trade out picks that we should be using to get in exciting young talent. I would prefer to see us leave Mick in place for the next 2 years, go with his rebuild structure and hopefully see us come out of it a much better club and be in a position where we can build a sustained run at a number of premierships.

Isn't that what we did in the 2014 draft? Traded our first rounder for more experience and then used our second pick on a mature age player who mainly played for the firsts in the WAFL last year and, on his first round form, is doing the same in the VFL? And you want more of MM? Go figure.

I would hate for the club to pull the trigger too early... go for someone who is going to try and build on a half done rebuild and in 5-10 years, have everything fall in a heap again.

Rebuild shmebuild. Our recruiting last year was all about trying to get a little short term gain from mature age players (I wonder why MM might have wanted that to happen in the last year of his contract) at the expense of recruiting untried kids who just might be part of a Carlton side in 10 years time.
 
Really important that we don't gild the lily either. Our recruiting horrors go back to 1997. Some are only awful in hindsight but plenty are not. Here are some of the lowlights

1997 - Used pick 7 on Kris Massie who we then traded to Adelaide for an absolute nothing player in Eccles

1998 - pick 6 on Murray Vance. Couldn't be buggered working. Recruiters could have found that out by talking to his coaches in Shepparton

1999 - Traded out of the first 3 rounds for Mansfield and O'Reilly!

2000 - used 3 top 15 picks on Livingston, Sporn and Wiggins. All useless

2001 - Best draft in a decade, traded out of first 2 rounds for Mckernan and Murphy

2002 - Excluded

2003 - OK. Everyone would have taken Walker at 2

2004 - used two top 25 picks on Russell and Hartlett

2005 - Murphy and Kennedy tick. Bower a bust at 20

2006 Can't knock the Gibbs pick. Most teams would have done that. But Grigg and Hampson awful choices

2007. Offloaded JK in the Judd deal because we believe Kreuzer would be better. Wrong

2008. Yarran an OK call, but offloading a second round pick for Warnock when we'd used first round picks on Hampson and Kreuzer the two previous years - inexplicable

2009. Mclean for 11 - insane. Getting 12 and Hendo for Fev was lucky. We would have taken Bradshaw if he'd agreed. Lucas a bust

2010. Disaster. 3 picks. 3 talls - Watson, Mitchell, McCarthy. All duds

2011. Bootsma. Major personality defects which a bit of due diligence would have picked up

2012 and 13. Can't knock Menzel, Cripps

2014. Rogers told he will never make another pick after taking Boekhorst at 19, despite everyone believing he'd still be there at 28 (or later). Crazy speculative pick when the situation demanded taking the elite kid, Laverde


Additionally, with the exception of Simmo, we've been hopeless in the pick 25-45 range - Edwards, Austin, Robonson, Marcus Davies, Justin Davies, Temay etc etc

All in all, a tale of utter woe

Very good analysis but of course done with the benefit of hindsight (except for 2014 where you are spot on but could have gone further - it will prove to be as big a disaster as we have had IMO, even if Clem can play). For example you reckon Bootsma personality defect should have been picked up pre-draft but during his second year (2013) he was given another, I think 2 year contract, so presumably the defect had continued unnoticed.
 
Forget this 'full rebuild' line of thinking, it will never happen at this club as it sets the club back 10years on and off the field...

The Hawks model for recruiting is dead as well, why, the AFL talent pool is a lot thinner than 8 years ago but you won't hear that from any recruiter or the AFL...

The only model that will work for us is the Doggies model...1. GET a marque player and build around him... 2. Father/Son factory. 3. Expand the recruiting department by 3, at least and speak to more people involved with the young future recruits...
 

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Let's hold that thought.


St Kilda are going through a full blown rebuild. We are tinkering at best and just mucking around trading for fringe players at worst. I give you Jones, Tutt, Whiley, BB as exhibits A to D.



Just show me one post you made from 2012 to round 1 2013 that tells me you were one of those who knew the squad was not a top 4 squad. I happily admit to thinking that our 2013 list had the makings, well coached, of a top 4 team. We had lost nothing since we overachieved (according to you) in 2011 and gained significantly.

But I do agree with you MM was brought in to put us in the top 4 and, in this, he has undoubtedly been a massive fail.



Let me follow the logic here. You say our players lacked any grasp of tactics because they knew the Ratten game plan. The one they "overachieved" with in 2011.
Is it just me or doesn't that sound like Ratten was able to get through to them with his game plan. If he could how come MM can't?



I don't know about alot of people but you are certainly right up there, no?




Well, if it is of any interest to you, I give a toss. Particularly if, as you claim, we are going through a rebuild. Who pays a small fortune for an outside mid at the back end of his career with a 2 year injury history and calls that any part of a sensible rebuild. (Hint: If you are rebuilding you get rid of such players and trade up in the National Draft for players like, I don't know, Wright and Laverde who might well be useless compared to say Jones, Tutt, Jaksch, Whiley and BB in 2015 but could be part of a vital team structure in 2018.


After winning the flag in 1982 we lost or started losing Fitzy, Buz, Southby, Perovic, Marcou, Harmes, Doull etc. In 1986 we brought in Sticks (25 games, 62 goals), Bradley (25 games and 30 goals), Dorotich (22), Evans (16 games and 26 goals), Gleeson (3), Hanna (1) and Motley(13).



Name names. Better still, refer to past posts when you named then current players who were C and D grade (whatever that means to you).



Isn't that what we did in the 2014 draft? Traded our first rounder for more experience and then used our second pick on a mature age player who mainly played for the firsts in the WAFL last year and, on his first round form, is doing the same in the VFL? And you want more of MM? Go figure.



Rebuild shmebuild. Our recruiting last year was all about trying to get a little short term gain from mature age players (I wonder why MM might have wanted that to happen in the last year of his contract) at the expense of recruiting untried kids who just might be part of a Carlton side in 10 years time.

"He's done it again, folks".

Mike,0.jpg
 
I was trawling through some info on our previous drafting recently. Note - I deliberately put all sharp objects out of reach in case in a fit of rage I was inclined to slash my wrists....

While doing my research the thought struck me that rebuilding will probably take longer than I thought. Not only do we need to build stocks of quality players but we have to very soon replace the ones we already have like Juddy, Simmo, Carrots, Jamo etc. To replace the aged and build our stocks of A/B graders at the same time requires us to nail draft after draft - 4 kids at a time. Law of averages suggest that we cant do that with out a huge dose of luck and our history shows we cant even get one consistently year after year. So the only way we can lift our stock of good players would be to increase our quantity of draft picks early in the first round.

To lift the quantity of early draft pics may require drastic measure at the trade table. Do we have the courage to do that?
Are we as fans prepared to write off the next 4-5 years and wait while we patiently build?

My analysis left me with the sinking feeling that we are at serious risk of not being able to rebuild even in 5 years unless something drastic happens. The last time something drastic happened (bottom of ladder for a few years) we still did not emerge the strong side we should have. St Kilda bottomed out early 2000's and they ended up challenging for a flag 10 years later. The Saints are at it again and my fear is they will get it right and we wont. They are developing a reasonable young list.

The thought of who we would need to trade away to achieve more early draft pics would be viewed by most here as killing Bambi.....
However, if we don't our pain and suffering will only be prolonged.
 
I was trawling through some info on our previous drafting recently. Note - I deliberately put all sharp objects out of reach in case in a fit of rage I was inclined to slash my wrists....

While doing my research the thought struck me that rebuilding will probably take longer than I thought. Not only do we need to build stocks of quality players but we have to very soon replace the ones we already have like Juddy, Simmo, Carrots, Jamo etc. To replace the aged and build our stocks of A/B graders at the same time requires us to nail draft after draft - 4 kids at a time. Law of averages suggest that we cant do that with out a huge dose of luck and our history shows we cant even get one consistently year after year. So the only way we can lift our stock of good players would be to increase our quantity of draft picks early in the first round.

To lift the quantity of early draft pics may require drastic measure at the trade table. Do we have the courage to do that?
Are we as fans prepared to write off the next 4-5 years and wait while we patiently build?

My analysis left me with the sinking feeling that we are at serious risk of not being able to rebuild even in 5 years unless something drastic happens. The last time something drastic happened (bottom of ladder for a few years) we still did not emerge the strong side we should have. St Kilda bottomed out early 2000's and they ended up challenging for a flag 10 years later. The Saints are at it again and my fear is they will get it right and we wont. They are developing a reasonable young list.

The thought of who we would need to trade away to achieve more early draft pics would be viewed by most here as killing Bambi.....
However, if we don't our pain and suffering will only be prolonged.

It's time to go ... BAMBI !!
 
A lot of people saw us playing finals under Ratts and think that we should be doing the same. Unfortunately, Ratts managed to get the list punching above their weight and if the opposition could counter his simplistic game plan, we could be carved wide open and we would end up getting done by 10+ goals.

It's been 20 years since Carlton has a premiership quality defence and the defence is where everything starts.

It must be great fun just making stuff up and putting forward as if it were true.

In 2011 our biggest losing margin was 36 points (to WC at Etihad where Nic Nat took what should have been mark of the year, Jamison was injured early and we had to rely on T bird as our KPD). We had the 5th fewest points scored against us and conceded only 81 points (4 points per game) more than Geelong, who won the flag.
 
Pick blokes that can kick a football to a teammate.
It's netted Hawthorn 3 Flags in 6 years and more than likely 4 in 7!!.
 
Sorry JK... I have been reading lots of bullshit about how crap our recruiting has been and how s**t our decisions on selecting players have been with no one actually analysing what they are saying.
Said it in pre-season and will say it again our efforts at the National draft as a whole has been laughable.

Our 22 against Richmond last week:

FB Jaksch (trade), Jamo (rookie), Rowe (rookie)
HB Docherty (trade), Touhy (rookie), White (rookie)
C Bell (rookie), Judd (trade), Thomas (FA)
HF Murphy (1st rd), Jones (trade), Everitt (trade)
FF Yarran (1st rd), Hendo (trade), Menzel (1st rd)

FOLL Wood (rookie), Carrazzo (rookie), Curnow (rookie)
Bench Gibbs (1st rd), Simpson (3rd rd), Cripps (1st rd), Smith (4th rd)

Compare that to Hawthorn or even Port.

Carlton: 8 from trades/FA, 7 rookies, 5 1st picks & 2 later picks (being kind including Simpson depsite being our 1st)
Hawthorn: 7 from trades/FA, 4 rookies, 4 1st picks & 7 later picks
Port: 7 from trades/FA, 1 rookie, 7 1st picks & 7 later picks.

Only 7 out of our 22 came from our own drafting, compared to 11 and 14 of two of the better sides in the comp. Rookies you will find a gem from time to time but generally if they've been overlooked there's significant deficiencies in their game, which is fine and can be worked on, the likes of Priddis & Cox come to mind. But too many are in our best 22 without that even happening yet!
 
Yep, that's the problem. We have been plugging the holes with Rookies.
They are doing an admirable job our rookies but it's not the way to go.
It's the later picks that we have covered with rookies.

I am confident we will fix it in time. I just hope it happens before I die....
Want to see at least one more flag!
 
Said it in pre-season and will say it again our efforts at the National draft as a whole has been laughable.

Our 22 against Richmond last week:

FB Jaksch (trade), Jamo (rookie), Rowe (rookie)
HB Docherty (trade), Touhy (rookie), White (rookie)
C Bell (rookie), Judd (trade), Thomas (FA)
HF Murphy (1st rd), Jones (trade), Everitt (trade)
FF Yarran (1st rd), Hendo (trade), Menzel (1st rd)

FOLL Wood (rookie), Carrazzo (rookie), Curnow (rookie)
Bench Gibbs (1st rd), Simpson (3rd rd), Cripps (1st rd), Smith (4th rd)

Compare that to Hawthorn or even Port.

Carlton: 8 from trades/FA, 7 rookies, 5 1st picks & 2 later picks (being kind including Simpson depsite being our 1st)
Hawthorn: 7 from trades/FA, 4 rookies, 4 1st picks & 7 later picks
Port: 7 from trades/FA, 1 rookie, 7 1st picks & 7 later picks.

Only 7 out of our 22 came from our own drafting, compared to 11 and 14 of two of the better sides in the comp. Rookies you will find a gem from time to time but generally if they've been overlooked there's significant deficiencies in their game, which is fine and can be worked on, the likes of Priddis & Cox come to mind. But too many are in our best 22 without that even happening yet!

There's an eye opener, the other thing you get from good drafting is more trade ammo. The top sides are often trading out AFL capable players and getting things back in return like 2nd-3rd round picks which gives their good recruiters another shot in the draft which keeps them sustainable. It's a real snowball effect.
 
There's an eye opener, the other thing you get from good drafting is more trade ammo. The top sides are often trading out AFL capable players and getting things back in return like 2nd-3rd round picks which gives their good recruiters another shot in the draft which keeps them sustainable. It's a real snowball effect.
That's why when people talk about trade bait our supporters go "oh nah he can't be traded" when people mention the likes of Walker, Yarran, Gibbs etc. in the past. Fact of it is they're all that's on our list with any real currency! A Tom Bell wouldn't get anything better than just a 4th round pick at the trade table yet he is who we are looking to play 20 odd games in our midfield rotation. Wouldn't say the same about any of the 10-12 sides being talked about as potential finals contenders
 
Our only real trade bait that isn't going to do immediate damage, is our first round draft pick. I suspect we will be interested once again in trying to gain 2-for-1 deals depending where our pick lands! ..
 

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