Knightmare
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 22, 2010
- 19,533
- 19,542
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Chicago Bulls
- Banned
- #1
Hinesight - who Collingwood went with..
5. De Goey (14 in my power rankings - though with Heeney, Moore and Steele higher on my draft board that would essentially make him 11 of those live available selections on my draft board)
9. Moore (4 in my power rankings)
30. Maynard (32 in my power rankings)
48. Goodyear (63 on my extended power rankings)
75. Pass
Rookie draft:
8. Michael Manteit (85 in my extended power rankings)
26. Brenden Abbott (56 in my power rankings)
43. Tony Armstrong (Unrated)
60. Mason Cox (43 in my power rankings)
Comments regarding our picks:
De Goey is a solid get. Not my best available but he can be a 200 gamer as a midfielder who can rotate forward and take a mark. You can use that.
Moore obviously is an excellent long term piece at 9 and terrific value as a genuine key forward you can build around long term.
Maynard is a strong contested ball winner with some versatility and has a powerful, low, hard kick to him when it's on target. Needs to work on his endurance so he can become a midfielder. I'd class him as someone who may make it if things go right and he can eventually build that midfield game he threatens to develop. In the short term my guess is he starts back until he builds that tank.
Goodyear is useful. It's against the odds he makes it but generally that is the case with the mid draft guys. The positives are his hardness inside as a guy who can win it inside but then also has some explosion by position with some pace. Disposal efficiency needs to improve, seems really rushed and pressured much of the time with ball in hand which is the major issue but if he cleans that up then he has an opportunity to develop given that ball winning ability and burst of acceleration.
Manteit is an efficient kicking back flanker and has a high motor. Competes reasonable well but for me lacks an x-factor that really sets him apart which is why I rate him lower rather than higher.
Abbott I really like the selection of. He is a big, strong boy but has some real acceleration and mobility. Good penetrating kick. Exceptionally versatile. He is on the improve. So he ticks the boxes for me. While he is a project player with poor endurance that can be improved in an AFL environment and given the improvement and given the mix of traits I give him a chance to make the grade.
Armstrong having had him last year we know who he is. Given his efficient footskills, some evasiveness, class with ball in hand and the ability to lower his eyes I'd actually be looking to shift him into the front half with that his best chance in my view of having a long term career at AFL level.
Mason Cox as a free hit I love the addition of. Tallest guy ever to be AFL listed, terrific athlete but also a highly intelligent guy which are all ticks. As a rotational ruck/key forward I'm not going to discount his chances of making the grade, even if Grundy and Witts are in my view our long term rucks and likely to become two of the better five or so in the game down the track.
Knightsight - In other words who I would have taken.
My locked in picks as per my pre-draft plan in my draft preview were as follows (http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...iscussion-to-new-draft-review-thread.1082299/):
5. Jayden Laverde (also considered Langford here long and hard, not much in it but Laverde ever so slightly the pick with a few more tricks)
9. Darcy Moore
30. Connor Blakely
48. Reece McKenzie (had I known he would have been there at 75 I would have taken Dean Gore here and R.McKenzie at 75 but without that knowledge that R.McKenzie would certainly be available at 75 I would have taken him here)
75. Peter Bampton (While I like Gore more and he went to Geelong in the 50s I would still have been stoked with Bampton here who in his own right can ball. The lad shouldn't have gone undrafted and recruiters must have had their beer goggles on during the year to pass this fella up. Though I say the same with R.McKenzie going as late as he did)
Rookie draft:
8. Will Fordham
26. Nic Newman
43. Mason Cox
Comments regarding my picks:
Laverde I favoured to De Goey because he had more tricks and a bit more special to him. Just that sheer evasive ability but then his power and burst of acceleration to go with his clean skills. I just like him that bit more. Funnily enough both R.McKenzie and Blakely I rate higher on my draft board than Laverde but it's a case of I thought I could get the guys I rated more highly later based on media rumours and that thought proved correct.
Moore again at 9 is a strong get and great long term piece. You'd do that every day of the week.
Blakely at 30 is terrific. He is the most dominant inside player in this draft. Has dominated at WAFL League level. Dominated through the U18 champs. Very tall midfielder but dominant inside game and excellent skillset as one of the rare few dominant inside mids and a tall inside mid at that with the skillset to also play outside. I expect numerous clubs will really regret letting Blakely slip into the 30s. I had him at 7 on my draft board which at 30 I'd naturally be stoked about.
R.McKenzie at 48 I'd be skipping a merry tune to get here and on my draft board I have him at 6 overall on my draft board, but would take him here given the sense that he would be more likely to go late draft. He has the scope to become the most dominant key forward in this draft class. Just such a big guy but so strong overhead, he has the dominant performances on the board but then has the athletic profile to go with it as the guy with the equal best time over 20m with Pickett of those drafted and a top 10 finish in the standing vertical. As a go to forward if things go right Reece could be the best in this draft.
Again had I known R.McKenzie would still be available at 75 I would have taken Dean Gore here as a powerful, well performed SA midfielder who has also dominated at League level. Gore wins his own footy, strong tackler, has an excellent long kick but then has a burst of pace to him and he has the ability to play forward and he later in the draft could be as good as and an excellent alternative to De Goey.
Bampton at 75 is another I went into the draft thinking would be half a chance to be here and I'd be stoked to get him. I have him at 31 on my draft board and the only of the players I consider capable contributors I would want to draft of those overlooked on draft day. Like Gore, Bampton is another incredibly well performed midfielder at SA League level and he has been dominant as that hard contested ball winner at that level for a couple of years now. He missed the second half of the season with injury and the U18 Champs so he hasn't been spoken about as much but he is another at that stage where I just couldn't more quickly get to the microphone to read out his name if there.
Fordham I really liked coming into the rookie draft as a tall midfielder with some real class and an excellent ball user who can also provide some run. He has improved strongly over the second half of the season which is a good indicator of future development with a junior and he would be a perfect list fit given our relative lack of outside types.
Newnam as a mature back flank I really like and I'd take him instead of Armstrong as someone who as a back flanker is more productive, a more damaging kick, a good height at 187cm, younger and more likely to have a career at AFL level than I'd say of Armstrong. He won the Fothergill Round Medal for the VFL's most likely draft prospect.
Then Mason Cox as a free hit I'd do every day of the week.
Further notes:
I just can't help but be more bullish than usual with my views this year with the talents available at our picks from 30 onwards absolute bargains in each case in my view.
R.McKenzie, Blakely, Gore and Bampton are all just grossly underrated this year and as my pre-draft rankings suggest plainly I think all clubs got the evaluations wrong with these four.
But until we know, to be determined and fun to project ahead how these guys careers will turn out.
Summary: Collingwood did great selected De Goey and after 2018 it's hard to see anyone complaining about that in hindsight. Preference between Blakey/Maynard depends in part on values, positional need and is still very much open to interpretation. Newman as a rookie is a pick I like. Laverde who I picked is at a stage in his career where he could go either way - but in hindsight I view it a poor selection with only an ok contested side to his game and not of a level suitable for top 10 selection despite his considerable talent.
Footnote: *In hindsight what I can't understand looking back is why I passed on Peter Wright when I viewed him after Reece McKenzie as the clear best available. Having Wright/Moore/McKenzie hypothetically with the view towards developing them all as key forwards should not have been a problem. Wright going to Gold Coast hasn't developed as hoped but had he gone to a better team he should having seen his first couple of seasons be the clear best from this draft. While McKenzie in hindsight we now know didn't work out, a vision of McKenzie at FF, Wright at CHF and Moore as relieving ruck would have been optimal and if things worked out a real set and forget as per 2006 with Reid/Brown/Dawes with the clubs KPP stocks at that time with Cloke already on the list setting up that 2010 premiership core. My methodology since this draft has changed quite significantly moving towards a pure best available strategy certainly during the national draft if there are any players, particularly from the junior ranks I view as future best 22 players.
Hindsight: (to be determined down the track)
5. *Bid on Harris Andrews. Would Brisbane have matched given he went pick 61? Had they matched, though I thought they would have 5= Jordan De Goey
9. Match bids on Darcy Moore
30. Brayden Maynard
48. Reilly O'Brien
75. Adam Saad
Rookie draft:
8. Tom Papley (drafted 2015)
26. Tim Kelly (drafted 2017)
43. Anthony Tipungwuti (drafted 2015)
60. Mason Cox (cat b)
*With apologies to Liam Ryan (drafted 2017)
*Tom Stewart (drafted 2016) - would be there but left out because was playing local footy at this age/stage.
Summary: Collingwood killed it with JDG/Moore/Maynard. Newman has been reasonable and Fordham is a good state leaguer but Laverde and Blakely have nothing on JDG and Maynard and have been over time comprehensively passed by. Points to Dekka and decisively.
*Here is last years thread for those interested in how I have performed in years past:
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/hinesight-knightsight-and-hindsight.1041937/
5. De Goey (14 in my power rankings - though with Heeney, Moore and Steele higher on my draft board that would essentially make him 11 of those live available selections on my draft board)
9. Moore (4 in my power rankings)
30. Maynard (32 in my power rankings)
48. Goodyear (63 on my extended power rankings)
75. Pass
Rookie draft:
8. Michael Manteit (85 in my extended power rankings)
26. Brenden Abbott (56 in my power rankings)
43. Tony Armstrong (Unrated)
60. Mason Cox (43 in my power rankings)
Comments regarding our picks:
De Goey is a solid get. Not my best available but he can be a 200 gamer as a midfielder who can rotate forward and take a mark. You can use that.
Moore obviously is an excellent long term piece at 9 and terrific value as a genuine key forward you can build around long term.
Maynard is a strong contested ball winner with some versatility and has a powerful, low, hard kick to him when it's on target. Needs to work on his endurance so he can become a midfielder. I'd class him as someone who may make it if things go right and he can eventually build that midfield game he threatens to develop. In the short term my guess is he starts back until he builds that tank.
Goodyear is useful. It's against the odds he makes it but generally that is the case with the mid draft guys. The positives are his hardness inside as a guy who can win it inside but then also has some explosion by position with some pace. Disposal efficiency needs to improve, seems really rushed and pressured much of the time with ball in hand which is the major issue but if he cleans that up then he has an opportunity to develop given that ball winning ability and burst of acceleration.
Manteit is an efficient kicking back flanker and has a high motor. Competes reasonable well but for me lacks an x-factor that really sets him apart which is why I rate him lower rather than higher.
Abbott I really like the selection of. He is a big, strong boy but has some real acceleration and mobility. Good penetrating kick. Exceptionally versatile. He is on the improve. So he ticks the boxes for me. While he is a project player with poor endurance that can be improved in an AFL environment and given the improvement and given the mix of traits I give him a chance to make the grade.
Armstrong having had him last year we know who he is. Given his efficient footskills, some evasiveness, class with ball in hand and the ability to lower his eyes I'd actually be looking to shift him into the front half with that his best chance in my view of having a long term career at AFL level.
Mason Cox as a free hit I love the addition of. Tallest guy ever to be AFL listed, terrific athlete but also a highly intelligent guy which are all ticks. As a rotational ruck/key forward I'm not going to discount his chances of making the grade, even if Grundy and Witts are in my view our long term rucks and likely to become two of the better five or so in the game down the track.
Knightsight - In other words who I would have taken.
My locked in picks as per my pre-draft plan in my draft preview were as follows (http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...iscussion-to-new-draft-review-thread.1082299/):
5. Jayden Laverde (also considered Langford here long and hard, not much in it but Laverde ever so slightly the pick with a few more tricks)
9. Darcy Moore
30. Connor Blakely
48. Reece McKenzie (had I known he would have been there at 75 I would have taken Dean Gore here and R.McKenzie at 75 but without that knowledge that R.McKenzie would certainly be available at 75 I would have taken him here)
75. Peter Bampton (While I like Gore more and he went to Geelong in the 50s I would still have been stoked with Bampton here who in his own right can ball. The lad shouldn't have gone undrafted and recruiters must have had their beer goggles on during the year to pass this fella up. Though I say the same with R.McKenzie going as late as he did)
Rookie draft:
8. Will Fordham
26. Nic Newman
43. Mason Cox
Comments regarding my picks:
Laverde I favoured to De Goey because he had more tricks and a bit more special to him. Just that sheer evasive ability but then his power and burst of acceleration to go with his clean skills. I just like him that bit more. Funnily enough both R.McKenzie and Blakely I rate higher on my draft board than Laverde but it's a case of I thought I could get the guys I rated more highly later based on media rumours and that thought proved correct.
Moore again at 9 is a strong get and great long term piece. You'd do that every day of the week.
Blakely at 30 is terrific. He is the most dominant inside player in this draft. Has dominated at WAFL League level. Dominated through the U18 champs. Very tall midfielder but dominant inside game and excellent skillset as one of the rare few dominant inside mids and a tall inside mid at that with the skillset to also play outside. I expect numerous clubs will really regret letting Blakely slip into the 30s. I had him at 7 on my draft board which at 30 I'd naturally be stoked about.
R.McKenzie at 48 I'd be skipping a merry tune to get here and on my draft board I have him at 6 overall on my draft board, but would take him here given the sense that he would be more likely to go late draft. He has the scope to become the most dominant key forward in this draft class. Just such a big guy but so strong overhead, he has the dominant performances on the board but then has the athletic profile to go with it as the guy with the equal best time over 20m with Pickett of those drafted and a top 10 finish in the standing vertical. As a go to forward if things go right Reece could be the best in this draft.
Again had I known R.McKenzie would still be available at 75 I would have taken Dean Gore here as a powerful, well performed SA midfielder who has also dominated at League level. Gore wins his own footy, strong tackler, has an excellent long kick but then has a burst of pace to him and he has the ability to play forward and he later in the draft could be as good as and an excellent alternative to De Goey.
Bampton at 75 is another I went into the draft thinking would be half a chance to be here and I'd be stoked to get him. I have him at 31 on my draft board and the only of the players I consider capable contributors I would want to draft of those overlooked on draft day. Like Gore, Bampton is another incredibly well performed midfielder at SA League level and he has been dominant as that hard contested ball winner at that level for a couple of years now. He missed the second half of the season with injury and the U18 Champs so he hasn't been spoken about as much but he is another at that stage where I just couldn't more quickly get to the microphone to read out his name if there.
Fordham I really liked coming into the rookie draft as a tall midfielder with some real class and an excellent ball user who can also provide some run. He has improved strongly over the second half of the season which is a good indicator of future development with a junior and he would be a perfect list fit given our relative lack of outside types.
Newnam as a mature back flank I really like and I'd take him instead of Armstrong as someone who as a back flanker is more productive, a more damaging kick, a good height at 187cm, younger and more likely to have a career at AFL level than I'd say of Armstrong. He won the Fothergill Round Medal for the VFL's most likely draft prospect.
Then Mason Cox as a free hit I'd do every day of the week.
Further notes:
I just can't help but be more bullish than usual with my views this year with the talents available at our picks from 30 onwards absolute bargains in each case in my view.
R.McKenzie, Blakely, Gore and Bampton are all just grossly underrated this year and as my pre-draft rankings suggest plainly I think all clubs got the evaluations wrong with these four.
But until we know, to be determined and fun to project ahead how these guys careers will turn out.
Summary: Collingwood did great selected De Goey and after 2018 it's hard to see anyone complaining about that in hindsight. Preference between Blakey/Maynard depends in part on values, positional need and is still very much open to interpretation. Newman as a rookie is a pick I like. Laverde who I picked is at a stage in his career where he could go either way - but in hindsight I view it a poor selection with only an ok contested side to his game and not of a level suitable for top 10 selection despite his considerable talent.
Footnote: *In hindsight what I can't understand looking back is why I passed on Peter Wright when I viewed him after Reece McKenzie as the clear best available. Having Wright/Moore/McKenzie hypothetically with the view towards developing them all as key forwards should not have been a problem. Wright going to Gold Coast hasn't developed as hoped but had he gone to a better team he should having seen his first couple of seasons be the clear best from this draft. While McKenzie in hindsight we now know didn't work out, a vision of McKenzie at FF, Wright at CHF and Moore as relieving ruck would have been optimal and if things worked out a real set and forget as per 2006 with Reid/Brown/Dawes with the clubs KPP stocks at that time with Cloke already on the list setting up that 2010 premiership core. My methodology since this draft has changed quite significantly moving towards a pure best available strategy certainly during the national draft if there are any players, particularly from the junior ranks I view as future best 22 players.
Hindsight: (to be determined down the track)
5. *Bid on Harris Andrews. Would Brisbane have matched given he went pick 61? Had they matched, though I thought they would have 5= Jordan De Goey
9. Match bids on Darcy Moore
30. Brayden Maynard
48. Reilly O'Brien
75. Adam Saad
Rookie draft:
8. Tom Papley (drafted 2015)
26. Tim Kelly (drafted 2017)
43. Anthony Tipungwuti (drafted 2015)
60. Mason Cox (cat b)
*With apologies to Liam Ryan (drafted 2017)
*Tom Stewart (drafted 2016) - would be there but left out because was playing local footy at this age/stage.
Summary: Collingwood killed it with JDG/Moore/Maynard. Newman has been reasonable and Fordham is a good state leaguer but Laverde and Blakely have nothing on JDG and Maynard and have been over time comprehensively passed by. Points to Dekka and decisively.
*Here is last years thread for those interested in how I have performed in years past:
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/hinesight-knightsight-and-hindsight.1041937/
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