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Mal Michael on Marngrook tonite.
 
jackess said:
http://www.lions.com.au/news/2015-08-27/harris-in-no-rush

Is this really the sort of headline we want published on our website?
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I'm telling you, this sort of messaging is controlled and done with purpose. It is a PR excercise and it started about 8 weeks ago. Our expectations are being tempered, we are being programmed to believe that it will 5 years minimum before we are any good. I don't like it one bit.
 

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lukiuslion said:
I'm telling you, this sort of messaging is controlled and done with purpose. It is a PR excercise and it started about 8 weeks ago. Our expectations are being tempered, we are being programmed to believe that it will 5 years minimum before we are any good. I don't like it one bit.
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But Angus told me we win the flag next year - to quote one of my fav UB40 tunes "Where did I go wrong?"
 
Last of the Roys said:
I watch AFL 360 a lot and I haven't notice it - I think people might be jumping at shadows a bit. We are fairly crap on and off field, so its pretty hard to be rosy about us as a Club at the moment.

I had never heard of Whateley's Fitzroy links; he may have jumped ship before the merger given what I have heard him say about Geelong. In fact the article linked to above says that he crossed to Geelong after watching Gary Ablett Senior and then meeting his future wife who was a Geelong supporter. So he could have cross over sometime between 1990 - 1996 (the article implies Whately was born in 1973). Oh well, each to their own - he certainly took the easier path (but then again he missed out on some unforgettable moments in Lions heaven with the premierships / celebrations at Brunswick St Oval in '01, '02 and '03).
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I love GW, my fave football person.
But I have noticed several times that he speaks with absolute distain for our club, I think he has a hangover from the previous board tbh - it's nothing personal - remember he was out spokesperson during the board saga, championing the Matthews side of things?. I think he wants proof of sound management and until then all we give him is bad news to report. Robbo always speaks with worry and care about us though so it balances out.

GW always has a "hmmmm not good, serious concerns there .... in other news..." Moving right along vibe when it comes to us, as opposed to actively attacking us.
 
lukiuslion said:
I'm telling you, this sort of messaging is controlled and done with purpose. It is a PR excercise and it started about 8 weeks ago. Our expectations are being tempered, we are being programmed to believe that it will 5 years minimum before we are any good. I don't like it one bit.
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It's an AFL Media article. The Lions wouldn't get much of a say. Mike Whiting writes good, informed articles, but even he wouldn't get much say in the headline. That's why headlines often change.
 
lukiuslion said:
I'm telling you, this sort of messaging is controlled and done with purpose. It is a PR excercise and it started about 8 weeks ago. Our expectations are being tempered, we are being programmed to believe that it will 5 years minimum before we are any good. I don't like it one bit.
Click to expand...

Well watched a great episode of Open Mike tonight with Brian Cook. He came to Geelong in 1999 with club struggling on field and 8 million in debt. They didn't officially turn it around until 8 years later when the premiership came. Don't know if Swann can afford that long at the Lions but it's a good reminder to look at the process rather than the result.
Apparently Geelong now net $750k on every home game - wow!
 
brizrider said:
Well watched a great episode of Open Mike tonight with Brian Cook. He came to Geelong in 1999 with club struggling on field and 8 million in debt. They didn't officially turn it around until 8 years later when the premiership came. Don't know if Swann can afford that long at the Lions but it's a good reminder to look at the process rather than the result.
Apparently Geelong now net $750k on every home game - wow!
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Geelong finished 5th in 2000 and didn't suffer a bottom 4 finish in his first 6 years. He was tired of not making grand finals by 2006 - not anything like our position, however his achievements are impressive.

I must be silly, I unlike the club still believe we can under go a rapid rise as early as next year. We have the pieces. I'm not being a smart ass either, I truely think a rapid rise isn't out of the question, we all hoped it was coming this time last year, what's changed?
 

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Actually if you listen to Rockliff on the ABC on the weekend just past, one of the most telling points was where he thought the club was at... and thats 2-3 years away from finals. 8-10 games in 2016 hopefully 12+ in 2017.

It was actually refreshing to hear him be frank and upfront. His assessment wasn't spin to me, it was what he really felt, and he said it in reference to the way he was asking more from the players and himself.

Maybe it is to temper expectation. But you'd also have to say it's a far more realistic time frame than some who think coaches and players can somehow manufacture miracles.
 
I think 2018 will be the first year we're able to challenge seriously that's for sure.... And that's if our players continue their rate of development.
 
CarterS said:
We all hope that every year.
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Except this year, Rocky, Matthews, Leppa, Swan, media.. all saying we are 'Years away'.. which is fine, more likely than not we are years away. Personally i'd prefer to hear about how we are expecting a rapid rise up the ladder next season with a bit of luck.
 
notliondown said:
Actually if you listen to Rockliff on the ABC on the weekend just past, one of the most telling points was where he thought the club was at... and thats 2-3 years away from finals. 8-10 games in 2016 hopefully 12+ in 2017.
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It would be a big jump from a 3-19 record to a 10-12 record. 3 games won in a season is a very low number and it is relatively rare that a side (other than the expansion sides which skew things) performs that poorly:

Non-expansion sides with fewer than 4 season wins:

2014: Nil
2013: Melbourne (2 wins)
2012: Nil
2011: Port (3 wins)
2010: Nil
2009: Nil
2008: Melbourne (3 wins)
2007: Richmond (3 wins)
2006: Carlton, Essendon (both 3.5 wins)
2005: Nil

That is 4 sides in 10 years who have had as bad a season (or worse) than we have (again, not counting expansion sides). We're in exalted company!

To dig a little deeper, sides who are this badly performed don't often experience significant rises back up the ladder in the following season:

- Melbourne went from 2 wins in 2013 to 4 wins in 2014
- Port went from 3 wins in 2011 to 5 wins in 2012
- Melbourne went from 3 wins in 2008 to 4 wins in 2009
- Richmond went from 3 wins in 2007 to 11 wins in 2008 (nb: dropped back down to 5 wins in 2009)
- Carlton went from 3.5 wins in 2006 to 4 wins in 2007
- Essendon went from 3.5 wins in 2006 to 10 wins in 2007 (nb back to 8 wins in 2008 and then 10.5 wins in 2009)

I guess the question is whether we are a fundamentally flawed side, as the likes of Carlton, Richmond or Melbourne have been at times during the last decade. If we are, then we shouldn't expect anything other than a slow, incremental rise back up the ladder, in which case 8-10 wins is out of reach and we can expect at least another 12 months of pain as we slowly rebuild.

However, I don't think our list is in as bad a shape as you'd ordinarily think of a side that has won 3 games. It is hard to think of another side with a starting best midfield of the quality of Martin, Rockliff, Beams and Hanley having as poor a season as we have had. I think our second tier has probably been slightly overrated by some but, even then, we're talking pretty solid senior level footballers in the likes of Redden, Rich, Zorko etc. Even accounting for a supporter's rose coloured glasses, we surely aren't the basket-case that the likes of Carlton and Melbourne have been at times. Injuries have been a massive issue and the structural concerns we entered the season with also eventuated. 2015 has been a perfect storm and you'd like to think the list quality, even with some remaining inherent problems, will prevent a repeat of 2015 next year.

All things considered, Rockliff's target of 8-10 wins is probably slightly optimistic based on history but still very much achievable, as Richmond in 2008 and Essendon in 2007 have proven.

Certainly, I don't think we could justifiably aim for anything less, nor could you realistically target finals given the low base we are coming from.

I tend to think 10 wins will demonstrate real progress. That's enough to save a coach's job and to give supporters real heart. 8 wins will make things a little less certain for everyone.
 
It's been a bloody hard year to get a genuine gauge on where we really are at in terms of list with injuries and lack of continuity. But... and its a big one I guess... you'd have to say we are in better shape than 2014 in reality with the injection of Beams, Bundy and Robbo plus another seasons worth of experience.

I guess that's where you are coming from too POBT - I think our list isn't flawed like some others and this year has just been a bit of a cluster f*ck.

It was more that it seemed a realistic target, not some overblown hype. 8-10 really should be what we aim for... its probably a pretty accurate gauge of where we are at with the mix in the side. Less (all things being equal with injuries etc) and questions should be asked.

I wonder if the off field changes will bring any tangible results quickly?
 
POBT said:
It would be a big jump from a 3-19 record to a 10-12 record. 3 games won in a season is a very low number and it is relatively rare that a side (other than the expansion sides which skew things) performs that poorly:

Non-expansion sides with fewer than 4 season wins:

2014: Nil
2013: Melbourne (2 wins)
2012: Nil
2011: Port (3 wins)
2010: Nil
2009: Nil
2008: Melbourne (3 wins)
2007: Richmond (3 wins)
2006: Carlton, Essendon (both 3.5 wins)
2005: Nil

That is 4 sides in 10 years who have had as bad a season (or worse) than we have (again, not counting expansion sides). We're in exalted company!

To dig a little deeper, sides who are this badly performed don't often experience significant rises back up the ladder in the following season:

- Melbourne went from 2 wins in 2013 to 4 wins in 2014
- Port went from 3 wins in 2011 to 5 wins in 2012
- Melbourne went from 3 wins in 2008 to 4 wins in 2009
- Richmond went from 3 wins in 2007 to 11 wins in 2008 (nb: dropped back down to 5 wins in 2009)
- Carlton went from 3.5 wins in 2006 to 4 wins in 2007
- Essendon went from 3.5 wins in 2006 to 10 wins in 2007 (nb back to 8 wins in 2008 and then 10.5 wins in 2009)

I guess the question is whether we are a fundamentally flawed side, as the likes of Carlton, Richmond or Melbourne have been at times during the last decade. If we are, then we shouldn't expect anything other than a slow, incremental rise back up the ladder, in which case 8-10 wins is out of reach and we can expect at least another 12 months of pain as we slowly rebuild.

However, I don't think our list is in as bad a shape as you'd ordinarily think of a side that has won 3 games. It is hard to think of another side with a starting best midfield of the quality of Martin, Rockliff, Beams and Hanley having as poor a season as we have had. I think our second tier has probably been slightly overrated by some but, even then, we're talking pretty solid senior level footballers in the likes of Redden, Rich, Zorko etc. Even accounting for a supporter's rose coloured glasses, we surely aren't the basket-case that the likes of Carlton and Melbourne have been at times. Injuries have been a massive issue and the structural concerns we entered the season with also eventuated. 2015 has been a perfect storm and you'd like to think the list quality, even with some remaining inherent problems, will prevent a repeat of 2015 next year.

All things considered, Rockliff's target of 8-10 wins is probably slightly optimistic based on history but still very much achievable, as Richmond in 2008 and Essendon in 2007 have proven.

Certainly, I don't think we could justifiably aim for anything less, nor could you realistically target finals given the low base we are coming from.

I tend to think 10 wins will demonstrate real progress. That's enough to save a coach's job and to give supporters real heart. 8 wins will make things a little less certain for everyone.
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I much prefer to look to West Coast's 4 wins (=wooden spoon) in 2010 to 17 wins (4th) in 2011 as to what is achievable.:p
I know, different lists etc., but most expected us to achieve a fair bit more this year than we have. There are a few circumstances that led to this year's results which can hopefully be rectified before round 1 next year.
(Not suggesting we might finish 4th, but the rise could be better than the likes of Melbourne, Richmond or Carlton managed. Maybe).
 
Skoob said:
I much prefer to look to West Coast's 4 wins (=wooden spoon) in 2010 to 17 wins (4th) in 2011 as to what is achievable.:p
I know, different lists etc., but most expected us to achieve a fair bit more this year than we have. There are a few circumstances that led to this year's results which can hopefully be rectified before round 1 next year.
(Not suggesting we might finish 4th, but the rise could be better than the likes of Melbourne, Richmond or Carlton managed. Maybe).
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Spot on. The domino effect of injuries, lack of playing in a settled side have an effect in confidence and cohesion. The teams mental aspect is such a positive or negative swinger.
West coast and port are two sides that show the dramatic climb is achieveable.
 
Skoob said:
I much prefer to look to West Coast's 4 wins (=wooden spoon) in 2010 to 17 wins (4th) in 2011 as to what is achievable.:p
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I actually first looked at those stats before the Carlton game, when a 2 win season was looking likely. Prior to Melbourne in 2013, you had to go back to Freo in about 2001 to find a side with less than 3 wins in a season. Even so, historically, a 3 win year is rare. 4 win seasons are comparatively common (perhaps a product of the priority pick being awarded for 4 wins or less?)
 
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