- Banned
- #401
Yeah.. I wouldn't put money on it.. but I can still dream a mathematical dream.
Realistically I think we finish 6th or 7th and play north in the first week of finals...
The run home
- Thread starter zackah
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Realistically I think we finish 6th or 7th and play north in the first week of finals...
Ben the Gooner
Stand by Hird
Pretty simple for us - if we win tomorrow night we are playing finals and we can dream of top four. If we lose tomorrow night, we're not finishing top four, and we can comfortably barrack for Port to do us a few favours.
- Jun 26, 2012
- 11,951
- 10,901
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Yeah true, if we win all 5 then it doesn't matter what the others do.
Ben the Gooner
Stand by Hird
Even before that, if we beat Sydney, you'd have to think that at absolute worst we go 2-2 from the final four and make the finals. If we win tomorrow night, you can start thinking about booking tickets. We can comfortably barrack for Gold Coast and Collingwood to do us a solid over Port, knowing they're not catching us.
- Jun 26, 2012
- 11,951
- 10,901
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Even if we lose to Sydney I reckon we can have a finals spot sewn up with two rounds left if We beat Richmond and WCE, Pies lose to Port and Eagles(away) and Carlton beat Suns(etihad).
Ben the Gooner
Stand by Hird
Yep, tomorrow's a free hit for us. A loss doesn't hurt our chances, but a win opens up some exciting possibilities (i.e. that we can beat anyone). I'm excited, because there's not much riding on it for us.
- Jun 26, 2012
- 11,951
- 10,901
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Just hope we don't cop a hiding and it dents our confidence
Ben the Gooner
Stand by Hird
Yeah that's the only thing. Although it seems like they took a lot out of the last hiding they gave us, from the way it's been spoken about by the players and Bomber.
- Jun 14, 2014
- 471
- 357
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Banned
- #410
Not ideal that Richmond and Carlton are playing well now, but the WC and suns games shouldn't give us too much trouble I wouldn't have thought.
A win tonight we are almost guaranteed of playing finals I guess.
Can't wait for tonight's game. Nothing to lose (except percentage) and everything to gain. I feel positive
A win tonight we are almost guaranteed of playing finals I guess.
Can't wait for tonight's game. Nothing to lose (except percentage) and everything to gain. I feel positive
eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Richmond's form is hilariously overrated, as is Carlton's
The loss to Sydney last night now means a spot in the finals is no longer in Essendon's control. Just in case you don't follow, both Collingwood and Adelaide (and technically Gold Coast) can jump Essendon this weekend with solid wins and push them out of the top 8. So, the question is, how does Essendon secure a finals spot from here? Below is their draw:
Round 20 v Richmond @ MCG
Round 21 v West Coast @ Etihad
Round 22 v Gold Coast @ Etihad
Round 23 v Carlton @ MCG
I'm of the opinion that none of those games are certain wins. Every one of those opponents is capable of beating Essendon but Gold Coast without Ablett is probably the closest to a certain win. First we must work out how many wins are needed to play finals. Here are the four other teams and their draws to get an idea:
North (10 wins) - Geelong, GWS, Bulldogs, Adelaide, Melbourne
Adelaide (9 wins) - West Coast, Brisbane, Richmond, North, St Kilda
Collingwood (9 wins) - Port, West Coast, Brisbane, GWS, Hawthorn
Gold Coast (9 wins) - St Kilda, Carlton, Port, Essendon, West Coast
I'm inclined to believe 12 wins is the absolute minimum you will need to secure a spot in the top 8. Essendon are currently on 10 wins with the 3rd best percentage of the 5 teams. However, Collingwood only need to gain about 30 points to be equal with the Bombers on percentage so they are definitely within in striking distance.
Anyway, a loss to Richmond next week and Essendon's task suddenly gets a lot tougher. They would need 2 wins in their last 3 games and even that may not be enough. The Gold Coast game is definitely a swing game for both clubs. If Gold Coast beat St Kilda tonight (which is expected) and manage to beat Carlton the following week then they are right in the mix. IF Essendon lose one of their next two games and Gold Coast win their next two, then they'll go into their round 22 clash with both teams sitting on 11 wins. The winner of that game then has a huge advantage going into the last round. Gold Coast have a home game against West Coast in the last round which is probably winnable, especially if a finals spot is on the line. The Suns also have the luxury of playing after Essendon in round 23 so they'll know exactly what is required to play finals going into the game, if it all eventuates that way.
It's a tricky draw in some ways for Essendon and, as I said, their finals spot is not in their control as of right now. So, how does Essendon secure a finals spot from here? How do they do it if they lose to Richmond? How do they do it if they lose to Richmond and Carlton? What about Gold Coast?
Discuss.
Round 20 v Richmond @ MCG
Round 21 v West Coast @ Etihad
Round 22 v Gold Coast @ Etihad
Round 23 v Carlton @ MCG
I'm of the opinion that none of those games are certain wins. Every one of those opponents is capable of beating Essendon but Gold Coast without Ablett is probably the closest to a certain win. First we must work out how many wins are needed to play finals. Here are the four other teams and their draws to get an idea:
North (10 wins) - Geelong, GWS, Bulldogs, Adelaide, Melbourne
Adelaide (9 wins) - West Coast, Brisbane, Richmond, North, St Kilda
Collingwood (9 wins) - Port, West Coast, Brisbane, GWS, Hawthorn
Gold Coast (9 wins) - St Kilda, Carlton, Port, Essendon, West Coast
I'm inclined to believe 12 wins is the absolute minimum you will need to secure a spot in the top 8. Essendon are currently on 10 wins with the 3rd best percentage of the 5 teams. However, Collingwood only need to gain about 30 points to be equal with the Bombers on percentage so they are definitely within in striking distance.
Anyway, a loss to Richmond next week and Essendon's task suddenly gets a lot tougher. They would need 2 wins in their last 3 games and even that may not be enough. The Gold Coast game is definitely a swing game for both clubs. If Gold Coast beat St Kilda tonight (which is expected) and manage to beat Carlton the following week then they are right in the mix. IF Essendon lose one of their next two games and Gold Coast win their next two, then they'll go into their round 22 clash with both teams sitting on 11 wins. The winner of that game then has a huge advantage going into the last round. Gold Coast have a home game against West Coast in the last round which is probably winnable, especially if a finals spot is on the line. The Suns also have the luxury of playing after Essendon in round 23 so they'll know exactly what is required to play finals going into the game, if it all eventuates that way.
It's a tricky draw in some ways for Essendon and, as I said, their finals spot is not in their control as of right now. So, how does Essendon secure a finals spot from here? How do they do it if they lose to Richmond? How do they do it if they lose to Richmond and Carlton? What about Gold Coast?
Discuss.
How does Essendon secure a finals spot? Very easy question to answer. Win all the games that it should win, which in all honesty is all of them. If we do, then Adelaide and North are playing each other so we'll make it. No top 8 teams for the rest of the year.
So a spot in the finals is actually in our control. None of us would have included Sydney in Sydney as a win.
If we miss finals from here, then we don't deserve it. That means we would have potentially lost 2 out of the next four, meaning that we still cannot beat the teams below us.
So a spot in the finals is actually in our control. None of us would have included Sydney in Sydney as a win.
If we miss finals from here, then we don't deserve it. That means we would have potentially lost 2 out of the next four, meaning that we still cannot beat the teams below us.
Not true. If North beat Geelong tonight then they can afford to lose to Adelaide and still be equal on wins with Essendon. Excluding Gold Coast, if they the four teams won all their games from here and North lost to Adelaide then they would all be equal on 14 wins and percentage would decide 6th-9th.
We will start favorite in all of these games, and I just checked the betfair odds and we are currently $1.20 to make the 8 so to say its not in our control a bit of an odd statement...
We don't have to travel, and should account for W.Coast & G.Coast pretty easily, so if we can win one of the Tigers or Carlton games we are in I reckon. We also will get Jobe & Hibberd back soon so its very difficult to see us missing from here.
We don't have to travel, and should account for W.Coast & G.Coast pretty easily, so if we can win one of the Tigers or Carlton games we are in I reckon. We also will get Jobe & Hibberd back soon so its very difficult to see us missing from here.
Yeah I was thinking that. I doubt that Collingwood will beat Hawthorn though and I don't think they'll beat Port either. Well in that case, our season would be ruined by losing to teams like Melbourne and St Kilda. I guess a plus for us is no travelling as opposed to Adelaide who have to travel twice.
raskolnikov
Cancelled
10k Posts
30k Posts
Wordler
Werewolf Player
Essendon Player Sponsor 2021 - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Archie Perkins
Essendon Player Sponsor 2020 - Orazio Fantasia, Anthony McDonald Tipungwuti, Shaun McKernan
Essendon Player Sponsor 2019 - Orazio Fantasia, Anthony McDonald Tipungwuti, Shaun McKernan
Song Contest Winner - 5+ Rounds
Simple. Win every game from here and we are in.
Did you even bother to read the posts above? It's not that simple. Essendon could win every game from here onward and not make the finals.
Then what's the point of discussion? If you don't make finals with 13 wins (and % would be pretty solid if 4 wins are added onto Essendon's already ok %) then you are unlucky. But you can only do what you can do.
- Jun 26, 2012
- 11,951
- 10,901
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Should have waited until after this round to see what Collingwood dish up, if they lose we will still be in the 8 and even if they win by 3 goals we will still be in, our destiny is still well and truly in our own hands.
eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Our record against teams 6th and below is 9-3. Our record for teams outside the 8 is 7-3. I'm pretty comfortable in saying that we should win all of them.
Ben the Gooner
Stand by Hird
- Jun 26, 2012
- 11,951
- 10,901
- AFL Club
- Essendon
That can only happen if Collingwood win every game, that isn't gonna happen.
eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Okay, will Collingwood beat Port and Hawthorn? No. So then we will make the 8 at the expense of either North or Adelaide.
