Guys,
I've been working on this for a while but below is a spreadsheet comparing all 18 clubs against 6 indicators of club support, across 3 identifiable bands (Facebook / Twitter - Social Media, Membership / H+A attendances - active support and afl.com.au / RM for latent support).
Obviously this list is heavily influenced by on field success so I've tried to 'level it out' by looking at average crowd numbers / membership over 5 years. In time I hope to apply to level out the Roy Morgan / afl.com.au survey numbers as more figures come to hand.
Surprisingly aside from a few outliers (below) the numbers are pretty consistent across all indicators. Collingwood have the lowest variance (they are either #1 or 2 across all indicators) while Brisbane has the greatest (ranging from #4 for Roy Morgan numbers to #17 for twitter).
All things considered the clubs are positioned where the majority of their rankings site. For example, 5 of Fremantle's 6 rankings sit in 8-11 range so its not surprising that they sit 10th across all rankings.
What I am interested in is the volatility within the list season to season and how it is influenced by on field success. For example you could probably argue Hawthorn's numbers are fully franked while the Demons are probably at their lowest ebb. What is the natural position for these clubs? Over time we can probably establish that...
As of October 2, 2014
The outliers - rankings that are 2 rankings outside all other indicators
- Hawthorn 448k Roy Morgan (#10) all other indicators were in the 2-5 band
- Richmond 5.2% afl.com.au survey (#11) all other indicators were in the 3-7 band
- Sydney 32,306 5 year membership (#14) and 1.185m Roy Morgan (#1) bookmarked all other indicators which were in the 6-12 range
- St Kilda 32,311 5 year h+a att (#7) all other indicators were in the 12-15 band
- Melbourne 196k Roy Morgan (#16) and 67,130 Facebook users (#17) all other indicators were in the 12-13 band
- Brisbane Lions 63kl Roy Morgan (#4) all other indicators were in the 13-17 band
A couple of brief observations:
• Collingwood and Essendon are the undisputed juggernauts of the competition; they are the only clubs to rank in the top 4 across all indicators of club support. Collingwood is the biggest club given they are #1 or #2 across all indicators of club support.
• Hawthorn is at the absolute peak of its powers. Aside from the Roy Morgan outlier they are ranked in the cluster of 2-5 across all indicators, I don’t think this is sustainable long term...I foresee the Hawks dropping back to a natural 6-8 level once the bandwagon dies
• Sydney has a massive causal following, but their fan base is not reflected in membership (#11). That said they have a very big social media presence which indicates that they could be winning the hearts and minds of the Generation Y Sydneysiders
• The Brisbane Lions Roy Morgan numbers is an out and out outlier, the number has a 12 point differential from all other indicators.
EDIT: I'll run the home crowd numbers over the spreadsheet (instead of home / away total attendances) to see if / how the results differ.
I've been working on this for a while but below is a spreadsheet comparing all 18 clubs against 6 indicators of club support, across 3 identifiable bands (Facebook / Twitter - Social Media, Membership / H+A attendances - active support and afl.com.au / RM for latent support).
Obviously this list is heavily influenced by on field success so I've tried to 'level it out' by looking at average crowd numbers / membership over 5 years. In time I hope to apply to level out the Roy Morgan / afl.com.au survey numbers as more figures come to hand.
Surprisingly aside from a few outliers (below) the numbers are pretty consistent across all indicators. Collingwood have the lowest variance (they are either #1 or 2 across all indicators) while Brisbane has the greatest (ranging from #4 for Roy Morgan numbers to #17 for twitter).
All things considered the clubs are positioned where the majority of their rankings site. For example, 5 of Fremantle's 6 rankings sit in 8-11 range so its not surprising that they sit 10th across all rankings.
What I am interested in is the volatility within the list season to season and how it is influenced by on field success. For example you could probably argue Hawthorn's numbers are fully franked while the Demons are probably at their lowest ebb. What is the natural position for these clubs? Over time we can probably establish that...
As of October 2, 2014
Code:
AFL CLUB FACEBOOK TWITTER MEMBER 5 YEAR AVG H+A ATT. 5 YEAR AVG. afl.com.au Roy M SUM
Collingwood 311,235 (1) 65,500 (1) 79,273 (1) 71,813 (1) 47,647 (1) 54,696 (1) 10% (1) 730k (2) (9)
Essendon 300,000 (2) 64,900 (2) 60,646 (4) 49,943 (5) 44,448 (2) 46,467 (2) 8.7% (3) 682k (3) (23)
Hawthorn 254,901 (3) 50,600 (5) 68,652 (2) 60,609 (2) 41,234 (3) 40,759 (4) 9.4% (2) 448k (10) (31)
Carlton 217,525 (4) 56,200 (3) 47,485 (9) 45,696 (7) 38,544 (4) 44,854 (3) 6.9% (6) 605k (5) (41)
West Coast 210,063 (5) 39,100 (9) 58,426 (5) 52,336 (3) 31,448 (10) 32,241 (8) 8.0% (4) 566k (7) (51)
Richmond 169,105 (7) 45,900 (8) 66,122 (3) 51,123 (4) 38,171 (5) 40,727 (5) 5.2% (11) 460k (9) (53)
Adelaide 164,852 (8) 48,800 (6) 57,171 (6) 47,811 (6) 37,356 (6) 32,130 (9) 7.0% (5) 568k (6) (56)
Geelong 130,754 (10) 46,000 (7) 43,806 (10) 41,447 (9) 35,725 (7) 38,202 (6) 6.5% (8) 496k (8) (64)
Sydney Swans 206,403 (6) 53,600 (4) 40,123 (11) 32,306 (14) 33,365 (9) 29,477 (12) 6.5% (8) 1.185m (1) (66)
Fremantle 161,485 (9) 36,700 (10) 48,776 (8) 43,638 (8) 31,122 (11) 30,499 (11) 6.9% (6) 438k (11) (73)
Port Adelaide 127,316 (11) 35,200 (11) 55,508 (7) 38,512 (10) 35,240 (8) 25,580 (15) 5.5% (10) 248k (13) (85)
St Kilda 113,558 (12) 32,800 (12) 30,738 (15) 35,436 (11) 27,564 (14) 32,311 (7) 3.5% (13) 354k (12) (96)
N Melbourne 92,100 (14) 31,600 (14) 40,027 (12) 32,756 (13) 28,060 (13) 27,635 (13) 3.5% (13) 209k (14) (106)
Melbourne 67,130 (17) 31,700 (13) 35,911 (13) 34,968 (12) 29,816 (12) 30,496 (12) 4.0% (12) 196K (16) (107)
Brisbane Lions 94,000 (13) 25,400 (17) 23,930 (16) 23,279 (16) 21,379 (16) 24,383 (16) 3.4% (15) 634k (4) (113)
W Bulldogs 74,389 (16) 24,600 (18) 31,538 (14) 30,708 (15) 24,191 (15) 26,790 (14) 2.6% (16) 208K (15) (115)
Gold Coast 88,814 (15) 26,400 (15) 13,478 (18) 12,143 (17) 20,841 (17) 19,561 (17) 1.3% (17) 107k (17) (133)
GWS 44,272 (18) 26,200 (16) 13,047 (17) 11,989 (18) 16,082 (18) 15,900 (18) 0.6% (18) 64K (18) (141)
The outliers - rankings that are 2 rankings outside all other indicators
- Hawthorn 448k Roy Morgan (#10) all other indicators were in the 2-5 band
- Richmond 5.2% afl.com.au survey (#11) all other indicators were in the 3-7 band
- Sydney 32,306 5 year membership (#14) and 1.185m Roy Morgan (#1) bookmarked all other indicators which were in the 6-12 range
- St Kilda 32,311 5 year h+a att (#7) all other indicators were in the 12-15 band
- Melbourne 196k Roy Morgan (#16) and 67,130 Facebook users (#17) all other indicators were in the 12-13 band
- Brisbane Lions 63kl Roy Morgan (#4) all other indicators were in the 13-17 band
A couple of brief observations:
• Collingwood and Essendon are the undisputed juggernauts of the competition; they are the only clubs to rank in the top 4 across all indicators of club support. Collingwood is the biggest club given they are #1 or #2 across all indicators of club support.
• Hawthorn is at the absolute peak of its powers. Aside from the Roy Morgan outlier they are ranked in the cluster of 2-5 across all indicators, I don’t think this is sustainable long term...I foresee the Hawks dropping back to a natural 6-8 level once the bandwagon dies
• Sydney has a massive causal following, but their fan base is not reflected in membership (#11). That said they have a very big social media presence which indicates that they could be winning the hearts and minds of the Generation Y Sydneysiders
• The Brisbane Lions Roy Morgan numbers is an out and out outlier, the number has a 12 point differential from all other indicators.
EDIT: I'll run the home crowd numbers over the spreadsheet (instead of home / away total attendances) to see if / how the results differ.
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