Cameron Rose Predicts Eagles will finish 14th

[Eastern Rangers]

Is there though? I mean 14th isn't last in this very expanded competition and 3 or 4 wins either way from 9th is a range of 5th to 13th last year ....

I'm always optimistic at the start of a year, but as you say all that optimism is based on improvement from a couple of genuinely top shelf players and improvement across a group of other players. In other words it's based on hope and perhaps expectation of improvement (reasonable expectation perhaps) but neither of those are in any way certain.

It's not like that 2003-2005 period where we could see the improvement in front of our eyes and there was a clear emergence of a quality group.

We have hope, but on what's been delivered to date mid table is about where we are at, worse with any significant injury run...

I think so.

Forget the number of places between 9 and 14. There is no particular reason why West Coast can "reasonably" be expected to fall down the ladder. As for the improvement not all of that is going to be personnel or talent related improvement, team sports rely as much as anything on systems and you've only got to look across town to see a side just above par when it comes to talent competing above and beyond fair rating.

I just don't see the wheels falling off and Simpson has shown me enough to suggest he has a handle on modern football and can actually coach a little bit. So nothing short of a train wreck will suffice in ensuring we finish 14th. That's a different statement to saying we'll start to show obvious signs that we'll soon threaten.

Just for reference for the expansion era.

2014 - Western Bulldogs
They have no backline and no forward line, they could compete on ball but simply didn't have the fire power to kick a winning score or resilience to contain sides defensively.

2013 - Gold Coast
Young squad that showed remarkable improvement in said year, doubling their wins on 2012. But are not fit with our age demographics and finished above some of the worst sides in a long time.

2012 - Port Adelaide
The only really comparable side in terms of age and demographics. They even had Primus in their second year as coach in 2012. They lost a bunch of experience in the past few seasons going into 2012 and had injury concerns of their own. At this stage the consensus was that Port were still well within their rebuilding phase. Which is not the same as us.

2011 - Adelaide
Having been competitive for five years straight under Neil Graig things started to turn sour in 2010. They had an aging list and made substantial cuts, losing Goodwin, McLoed, Stevens, Hentschel, Burton and Bock. Porplyzia missed the entire season with a shoulder injury.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

I think he's provided a pretty good analysis of where we're at without allowing for any upside, but the upside we're hoping for is exactly that, "hope".

After their first and second seasons it was clear that both Judd and Kerr would join cuzzy in the ranks of the elite. Whilst I think that Shuey/Gaff/Yeo and others can improve, I don't have the same confidence. Guys like scooter, Masten & Rosa I don't think have any significant improvement in them and will need to show consistency to help make us a better side.

I just hope we don't have run of wins towards the end of the season to finish 9th again. If we finish 14th but have prioritised games to the likes of Duggan/Cavka/Nelson over say McGinnity/Butler/Hill then I'll be comfortable with where we're heading.

Anyone who thinks Shuey is just a "good" player isn't providing good analysis.

Rosa has peaked to be sure, but he played the 14 games last year. Masten was down on his best last year, as was Selwood who never was really fit and missed half the season. Selwood has the capacity to improve upon his best football as well.

Judd and Kerr aren't really relevant, it would be nice for a kid to stand up straight away. It's a different era and the gap between 18's and AFL has grown substantially. Secondly, we'd never win a premiership with such a poor spread of talent these days.

 

[Euro Star]

Anyone who thinks Shuey is just a "good" player isn't providing good analysis.

Rosa has peaked to be sure, but he played the 14 games last year. Masten was down on his best last year, as was Selwood who never was really fit and missed half the season. Selwood has the capacity to improve upon his best football as well.

Judd and Kerr aren't really relevant, it would be nice for a kid to stand up straight away. It's a different era and the gap between 18's and AFL has grown substantially. Secondly, we'd never win a premiership with such a poor spread of talent these days.

Yeah I agree with all of that but if Shuey, Masten and Selwood continue to operate at or around the same level, would it be a huge shock? They've been around for 6-8 seasons now.

The reason I brought up Judd & Kerr is because you could comfortably say these guys are going to be A-grade which I wouldn't say is a certainty for anyone in our current squad, but I do believe both Nic and Shuey at their best will be as well as having "hopes" for others.

FWIW, I believe there is more likelihood we will improve than decline with any of Nic, Lycett , Shuey, Gaff, Yeo or Sheed capable of breaking out this year having a very positive flow on effect to the rest of the team.

Mr Roar has missed other things like the upside from Lycett and a lack of 3 rucks policy this year which I think potentially cost us wins last year. Then there's Newman, Wellingham and our new draftees who are all wild cards but a long, long way from certain.

 

[Dark Sharks]

Guys guys guys, we've finally benched Mackenzie and have Brown playing full back, top 4 for sure.

 

[tesseract]

Guys guys guys, we've finally benched Mackenzie and have Brown playing full back, top 4 for sure.

...in the draft order.

 

[Winky]

...in the draft order.

You've gotta laugh at the negativity towards the Eagles on this board and by the so called experts. The wraps for Adelaide have been around for a few seasons now with no result. But wait, they have a new coach...the guy who was the tactical coach for the Eagles in the years everyone was complaining about the lack of tactics from WCE eagles coaching a few years ago. Plus they have lost the Truck from defence and have no one to take his place. Apart from Taylor Walker and Eddie Betts, their forward line is non existent and I would argue Le Cras and Kennedy are at least their equal. Dangerfield is a good player but is no more consistent than Shuey. A similar situation exists for most of the other clubs tipped to be above WCE. Funny thing is that most of these teams have been given assumptions that there will be huge improvement from some young players but the assessment of the Eagles focuses on players who have been in the system playing well but there is no regard for improvement from young players who now have a few games under the belt. I think the current team (assuming Darling is fit) is capable of improving beyond last year but for significant improvement, players like Cripps, Colledge, Tunbridge, Sheed, Lycett and a few others have to go up a level. Then there are a few "dark horses" such as this years draftees, Newman, Karpany etc who could make a difference.

 

[bodazoka]

That's the thing, we're not in the same position really.

Don't underestimate the change Simpson will bring to the team with another year under his belt.
Plus we have Naitanui with a full pre-season, more out of Yeo, Lecras, Rosa and a few others who had long-term injuries.
We saw Gaff and Shuey really elevate their game towards the end of the year, which so far looks to be carrying over.
We have possible improvement from Shep, Wellingham, Lycett, Cripps and Sheed
Possible new spark in Lamb, Duggan, Newman, Lucas.

I'd say we're better positioned this year than last year, save for Emac and Darling. (which is obviously a BIG loss)

I don't see enough top end talent in the group of possible improvement players to even replace what we have lost. Also bear in mind Darling and Emac won't be the only losses we have this year, law of averages states we will loose another couple before the end.

 

[Beutbrute]

I don't see enough top end talent in the group of possible improvement players to even replace what we have lost. Also bear in mind Darling and Emac won't be the only losses we have this year, law of averages states we will loose another couple before the end.

The only top end player we have lost from last year is McKenzie.

I think one of the issues we've had over the last couple of years is we've been too tall down back - with Glass, McKenzie, Brown and Schofield. They have all been "best 22 players", and we've tried to make them fit into the team, resorting to Brown playing on smalls to make this happen. In 2013 Brown was in and out of the team due to our height and really struggled. We played him all of last year, which gave him some continuity and he really thrived. Last year Schofield didn't have a set role. I believe that being given the 2nd tall role will allow him that continuity that helped Brown's game last year. McKenzie is a gun and will definitely be missed, but his absence will help our balance down back IMO.

If we take the law of averages saying that we will loose a couple of other players this year to injury, we also have to take that into consideration for the same thing happening to every other team we play against, so it would cancel itself out.

 

[nameless]

I don't see enough top end talent in the group of possible improvement players to even replace what we have lost. Also bear in mind Darling and Emac won't be the only losses we have this year, law of averages states we will loose another couple before the end.

Lose*

I agree we lack elite talent and depth.
But i think teams around us suffer similar weaknesses.

 

[nameless]

The only top end player we have lost from last year is McKenzie.

I think one of the issues we've had over the last couple of years is we've been too tall down back - with Glass, McKenzie, Brown and Schofield. They have all been "best 22 players", and we've tried to make them fit into the team, resorting to Brown playing on smalls to make this happen. In 2013 Brown was in and out of the team due to our height and really struggled. We played him all of last year, which gave him some continuity and he really thrived. Last year Schofield didn't have a set role. I believe that being given the 2nd tall role will allow him that continuity that helped Brown's game last year. McKenzie is a gun and will definitely be missed, but his absence will help our balance down back IMO.

If we take the law of averages saying that we will loose a couple of other players this year to injury, we also have to take that into consideration for the same thing happening to every other team we play against, so it would cancel itself out.

Lose*

 

[MIKE85]

We will finish 6th, basing this on absolutlely nothing, just pure fanboi logic

Seriously though, we have a soft draw, improvement already shown from Sheed, Wellingtramp, more games into Lycett who could dominate with Nic (if he ever actually plays) Throw in Gaff who improved second half of last year, and seems to have got a little more size in the pre season, and we are already looking better. I'd rather base my predictions/hopes on the second half of last year, when, in games against top 8 sides (which they were at the time) Crows and pies, our ball movement looked better, and we were hitting up leading targets much better. We did this against Carlton last week too, hit some good leads and didn't bomb too much.

All is not lost, we will make the 8.

 

[Beutbrute]

Lose*

Lol, I didn't even pick that up. I blame bodazoka!
I hope we don't loosen any more ACL's

 

[ep2018]

Doesn't need it's own thread...actually, it probably already has one, but what about this The West Is Ours s**t that the club has come out with this year. How will that look after we inevitably lose/hand the Dockers both derbies on a silver platter...

I cant see us beating them for a while to be honest. Probably in three years where they might have a dip and we're steadily climbing.

 

[bodazoka]

The only top end player we have lost from last year is McKenzie.

I think one of the issues we've had over the last couple of years is we've been too tall down back - with Glass, McKenzie, Brown and Schofield. They have all been "best 22 players", and we've tried to make them fit into the team, resorting to Brown playing on smalls to make this happen. In 2013 Brown was in and out of the team due to our height and really struggled. We played him all of last year, which gave him some continuity and he really thrived. Last year Schofield didn't have a set role. I believe that being given the 2nd tall role will allow him that continuity that helped Brown's game last year. McKenzie is a gun and will definitely be missed, but his absence will help our balance down back IMO.

100% agree with that, Cox and Glass were some what of a "problem" because you had to play them and the other tall kids. I have to say that I honestly don't see Darling as backing up this year with literally zero pre-season and I err on the side of the club stuffing up Selwood's recovery. So to me it's all those three + whoever else falls over tomorrow.

If we take the law of averages saying that we will loose a couple of other players this year to injury, we also have to take that into consideration for the same thing happening to every other team we play against, so it would cancel itself out.

This is true, I would argue however that a) it depends on which players we loose and b) teams like Hawthorn and Sydney have more experienced and talented lists. We rely on more of our stars performing then they do.

 

[Eagle87]

... players we loose....

Are they tied up?

C'mon, you do this on purpose at this point don't you?

 

[kaiserchief13]

It comes down to the midfield. If Gaff, Shuey, Lycett and Naitanui can have big and injury free years, as well as somebody like Sheed and/or Yeo improving the midfield I can't see the Eagles missing the 8.

 

[Dark Sharks]

It comes down to the midfield. If Gaff, Shuey, Lycett and Naitanui can have big and injury free years, as well as somebody like Sheed and/or Yeo improving the midfield I can't see the Eagles missing the 8.

Don't forget Matt. Why does everyone always forget Matt?

 

[Total_Juddshanks]

Football is essentially unpredictable, each year there are 2-3 teams which totally defy expectations either upwardly or downwardly. With that in mind, there's actually is a chance we could finish top 4, or stone cold motherless last. Anyone remember Port last year?

But, if you look at it based on what we know about our list, 14th does seem a reasonable call, for a few reasons.

Our midfield have played a lot of football together, the likes of Masten and Shuey are not kids any more by AFL standards, by now they should be performing at their peaks. I think the truth is they just aren't very good and never will be- compared to most other AFL midfields they are the the classic group of pretenders who look respectable but consistently get beaten when they end up opposed to genuine class.

We are missing 2 of our top 6 players in Darling and Mackenzie before rd 1 has started, with no real indication of when, if at all, Darling will be right- his game is hugely about his ability to run hard to create space or put on defensive pressure, even if he does get his body right without a preseason he will struggle.

But putting (imo justified) pessimism to one side, there are a couple of X factors which could swing things in our favour- Sheed is probably the one midfielder who might have a massive upside this year, and Naitanui seems to have had a proper preseason and be injury free for the first time in a long time. Watch those two guys closely over the rest of the NAB cup, because imo they are the two who will need to have epic years for us to go forwards rather than backwards this season.

 

[twce13]

To be perfectly honest we're a pretty hard team to judge, harder then most clubs.
The gap between our best and worse (not unusual to see both in a single outing) is significant.

Emac is a massive loss, but I don't think it has to be season defining.
We have played too tall in the last few years anyway, I think more run will improve a lot of aspects in our game.

This rosie guy is a bit hit and miss.
He isn't wrong with Hurn's tendency to be shut out of games and what worked well in '12 was Waters being an offensive weapon.
I think Shep is the one who could be that complimentary weapon off the HBF, he has the capacity to be damaging but obviously needs to show more consistency. Really hoping for a big year from him.

But Shuey is a better then good player.
Needless to say if were gonna improve we need to see some improvement from guys like Gaff, Yeo, Selwood and even Wellingham, but it's not unreasonable IMO that one or two of these guys will step up; for me Shuey, Gaff + Yeo are the ones who could lead our midfield moving forward. I still think Gaff could be a jet and Yeo is a tantalizing prospect.

I'm also pretty bullish about some of our youngsters; Sheed was described as a ready made body, good decision maker ready to impact blah blah blah when he was drafted, but actually what I saw last year was a pretty raw kid who has a fair bit of upside as a inside/outside mid.
I still also really like the Karpany selection, I just feel like he has something to offer. And yeah the new kids look like good prospects, just hope we blood these kids rather then gifting games to dead end players like Mcginnity and hutchings.

All that aside, I think NN having a big season is probably gonna have the biggest say in how we go. For me he is our most genuine game winner.
Also Lecras getting back to his best would be a big positive also, he is an awesome player at his best at both hitting the scoreboard and delivering quality into the 50.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Yeah I agree with all of that but if Shuey, Masten and Selwood continue to operate at or around the same level, would it be a huge shock? They've been around for 6-8 seasons now.

Really? I

Shuey we agree is already an elite talent. His production isn't elite or at the level of consistency you'd always like but Simpson extracted more in 2014 and there is no reason why he can't continue to improve. Especially if other players solidify form underneath him. His game has come a long way since 2011.

Masten's 2014 production was down substantially on 2013 and perhaps worse than 2012. New coach and a change in role might have played a part in his lowered production. He should be expected to lift if he wants a long term role.

Wellingham that might apply to as he's never been a high production player at either Collingwood or West Coast. But if he's ever going to become a genuine midfield talent then the Eagles midfield is perhaps the best opportunity he could get. Form to date is promising.

 

[matt_bas]

One injury and everyone writes us off! I Just think we have too many good players to finish that low. We also have a damn good run this year. I'm sticking to my prediction of 4-8. I have faith in Brown. Hopefully he sees this as his chance to really step up and have a break out year.

 

[pantskyle]

I'd have us around 6-10. I doubt we'll be lower than 10.

I also like how a known Freo troll constantly creates West Coast supporting troll accounts on Big Footy and posts heaps of s**t.

 

[Keys]

I'd have us around 6-10. I doubt we'll be lower than 10.

I also like how a known Freo troll constantly creates West Coast supporting troll accounts on Big Footy and posts heaps of s**t.

But he's illuminating

 

[ytpme]

But he's illuminating

Yes indeed....light headed!

 

[Jack_the_Ninja]

Ummm I hate to say it guys this guy is bang on the money, come the end of the home and away season we will be around 12-14th. Just tell me how we are going to be in the top 8 ? last years top will smash us.