Play Nice Will Geelong win the 2016 premiership?

[BlueJet]

Geelong will cruise to top 4 this year, whether or not they can win the flag, I have no idea. But they will be dominant in 2016 and I certainly wouldn't be surprised if they end up premiers.

Disagree, still too many question marks after how they fared this past season.
They'll need everything to click straight away and for veterans to turn back the clock in order to finish top 4 imo.

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[TheCoach16]

Disagree, still too many question marks after how they fared this past season.
They'll need everything to click straight away and for veterans to turn back the clock in order to finish top 4 imo.

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They had some injuries to crucial players last year, those players will return this year, they've recruited exceptionally well, they have just about the perfect mix of experience and young talent. They will be top 4 without breaking a sweat.

 

[BlueJet]

They had some injuries to crucial players last year, those players will return this year, they've recruited exceptionally well, they have just about the perfect mix of experience and young talent. They will be top 4 without breaking a sweat.

Injuries aren't an excuse in footy as every side gets them, it's how the next in line step in to fill the void that really defines the good sides.
I see them becoming a force in a year or two if/when their younger players can be consistent senior footballers.

 

[TheCoach16]

Injuries aren't an excuse in footy as every side gets them, it's how the next in line step in to fill the void that really defines the good sides.
I see them becoming a force in a year or two if/when their younger players can be consistent senior footballers.

You're probably right, I guess we'll know in about 7 months. But I know injuries are a part of footy, and no team is immune. But I think their injuries were really crucial players, at really crucial stages of the season. I just think they'll hit back hard this year, I'm tipping top 4, but I guess we'll see...

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

You're probably right, I guess we'll know in about 7 months. But I know injuries are a part of footy, and no team is immune. But I think their injuries were really crucial players, at really crucial stages of the season. I just think they'll hit back hard this year, I'm tipping top 4, but I guess we'll see...

There is a lot of luck involved with injuries and unfortunately for the Cats, a few of their key players are injury prone.

Injuries happen to all clubs. I believe the top 15 players on a list dont win flags, it is the bottom 15.

Their depth isnt that great and I just can't see Dangerfield turning a rather limp 10th to a top four, genuine contender. For me, even finals are only a maybe, there are a few teams who missed the 8 last year with more upside in their depth than Geelong

 

[TheCoach16]

There is a lot of luck involved with injuries and unfortunately for the Cats, a few of their key players are injury prone.

Injuries happen to all clubs. I believe the top 15 players on a list dont win flags, it is the bottom 15.

Their depth isnt that great and I just can't see Dangerfield turning a rather limp 10th to a top four, genuine contender. For me, even finals are only a maybe, there are a few teams who missed the 8 last year with more upside in their depth than Geelong

I don't think their depth is that bad. It's just very hard to replace your 3rd 4th and 5th players on your list with your 30th 31st and 32nd. Other than you guys (the Hawks) it's hard to predict this early on, but I think the Cats will have a big big year.

 

[romeohwho]

Disagree, still too many question marks after how they fared this past season.
They'll need everything to click straight away and for veterans to turn back the clock in order to finish top 4 imo.

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That's what I was thinking.
Then I had another good look at our draw-yeehaa.
And its not about the veterans anymore.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I deliberately said contenders though. He hardly set the world on fire in 2014 but best case scenario was he maybe gets us to a Prelim rather than just a Semi that season, but so what? We were far behind Hawthorn, Sydney, Freo and Port that year that even despite finishing ahead of two of them we were never going to win, and if we got passed North we would've been thrashed just like they were. We didn't gain anything by getting rid of him since the young players earmarked to replace him didn't work out, but it didn't really cost us anything either.

We got within a kick, or about ten minutes, of a GF in 2013, without a ruckman and a crippled AA full forward. Both of those issues were expected to be addressed, with the availability/health of Hawkins, McIntosh and Simpson (in career best form and looking like a genuine weapon until he broke his leg). We got rid of Podsiadly because he had become a complete non-factor for us and were expecting to replace him in the forward line with Vardy. The only guaranteed best 22 player that we lost was Chapman (I guess you could argue the retiring Joel Corey) and we didn't have to do that, so why was a decline such a foregone conclusion in your eyes?

That's comparing apples and oranges. I'm talking about 2013 when Chapman was forced out and 2015 when SJ was forced out because we needed to regenerate and were declining, not 2011 when we were at our peak. You've also listed pretty much every young player from 2011 and I doubt anyone was saying all of them would make it, particularly players like Brown, Hunt, Simpson and Cowan who have never had a great match at AFL level let alone consistently played well enough to stay in the team at any point.

Yes, because Nakia Cockatoo set the world on fire in his first season, I suppose.

You're wrong. Heading into the 2011 season, Taylor Hunt was arguably the most promising under 21 player on Geelong's list. People who can remember back that far remember how stiff he was to be dropped, just before the finals in 2010, in favour of bigger names, who subsequently didn't produce. He's played plenty of excellent games in the AFL. Mitch Brown was the almost-mythical first round pick that had barely been seen, due to injuries, since he was drafted. And when he was seen in the VFL, he routinely tore it to shreds. Then he made his long-awaited debut in the middle of 2011, kicked a lazy three on debut, busted his shoulder in week 2 and was done for the year again. As mentioned, Dawson Simpson was outstanding in 2013. If he'd continued the form that he showed in that season and stayed fit, he might have got us into the grand final. He was a massive 21 year old ruckman, who had managed to debut for us and like any player of his size and at that age, he could have been anything at that point.

The difference between SJ and the draftees + Smedts, Cowan, Horlin-Smith etc. is that SJ isn't going to hang around to be a depth player behind Cockatoo, Gregson and Lang and quite possibly spend a majority of the year in the VFL. We'll struggle to fit those 3 into the team let alone those 3 + SJ since we'll have Danger and possibly S.Selwood as new full time midfielders plus Blicavs not playing as ruckman meaning Motlop and Caddy will likely spend more time forward as well as having Menzel in the team as a full time forward.

Sorry, why is that a problem? Given the players that we've recruited, I assume the team is trying to win a flag. So if a younger player isn't good enough to get a game in the 22, because Steve Johnson is still occupying a spot, well, I'm afraid that's stiff s**t. If Johnson had remained on the list and the other players had played well enough to keep Johnson in the VFL, stiff s**t for Johnson. That's how it should work in good teams: you don't get gifted games. Johnson's not going to be there forever and his recent history suggests that he's still more than capable of getting 2-5 BOGs in a year.

The list of players that kicked 30+ goals and averaged 20+ disposals per game in 2015 contains one name. Steve Johnson did it. And, like I've said, unless money was the problem, I think it's a big mistake to cut him loose, in favour of numerous guys that will be lucky to be in the AFL in three years.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

There is a lot of luck involved with injuries and unfortunately for the Cats, a few of their key players are injury prone.

Injuries happen to all clubs. I believe the top 15 players on a list dont win flags, it is the bottom 15.

Their depth isnt that great and I just can't see Dangerfield turning a rather limp 10th to a top four, genuine contender. For me, even finals are only a maybe, there are a few teams who missed the 8 last year with more upside in their depth than Geelong

The bottom 15 on a list rarely play a part in premiership teams, which is good, because from spots 31-44 on Geelong's list is the weakest in the league IMO.

You need a strong 16-30 to win a flag, and IMO we are very strong in that group.

Also, how were we "a rather limp 10th?" We were 10th, but if you needed to describe how we got there, calling us "the best 10th in AFL history" would have been more accurate given our record.

 

[hawkman]

Dangerfield goes OK against the Hawks. He's averaged 34 touches and a goal in his last four games against you.

Hasn't really hurt us though. Too many of his kicks against us are hacked kicks forward that don't advantage his team. If you can get that out of his game he will become much more dangerous against us

 

[marty36]

Hasn't really hurt us though. Too many of his kicks against us are hacked kicks forward that don't advantage his team. If you can get that out of his game he will become much more dangerous against us

He is a great player that rushes his disposal, don't think that will change

 

[BlueJet]

That's what I was thinking.
Then I had another good look at our draw-yeehaa.
And its not about the veterans anymore.

Admittedly I haven't looked at the draw too closely, the plight of my team my have something to do with that though..

 

[manboob]

Hasn't really hurt us though. Too many of his kicks against us are hacked kicks forward that don't advantage his team. If you can get that out of his game he will become much more dangerous against us

Like you guys, we tend not to tolerate wayward kicks. I think this is something that will be removed from his game pretty quickly. We'll see come NAB time.

 

[Seeds]

Disagree, still too many question marks after how they fared this past season.
They'll need everything to click straight away and for veterans to turn back the clock in order to finish top 4 imo.

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We only have four veterens left. Geelong becoming a force again will likely mean those veterens are forced out of the side.

 

[BlueJet]

We only have four veterens left. Geelong becoming a force again will likely mean those veterens are forced out of the side.

Fair call, imo Bartel/Enright playing a good standard of footy will certainly be beneficial.

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[Sttew]

Wow-weeee!

104 pages of discussion on whether Geelong will be a serious flag threat in 2016. GFC looking at 50,000 members for the first time ever. Even if Dangerfield does not play a game, recruiting him has been a massive marketing success story.

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

Their depth isnt that great and I just can't see Dangerfield turning a rather limp 10th to a top four, genuine contender. For me, even finals are only a maybe, there are a few teams who missed the 8 last year with more upside in their depth than Geelong

Despite countless posts explaining in great detail how Geelong have filled some massive gaps in it's structure through recruitment, even discounting injury completely, people still want to come in here and say 10th + Dangerfield = 9th.

Going to be a very interesting season.

 

[ADL9798]

Like you guys, we tend not to tolerate wayward kicks. I think this is something that will be removed from his game pretty quickly. We'll see come NAB time.

Haha that is being extremely optimistic. What are you going to do, send him to AusKick for a kicking clinic? He's nearly 26 years old!

He's a fantastic player but he isn't perfect, and 2 months at a new club isn't going to see him miraculously start to consistently thread accurate 20-40 metre passes through traffic.

What you see is what you get, and what you're getting is the best athlete in the AFL. A bull at the contest who will win the ball 9 times out of 10, break out of stoppages, jam the ball on his boot and gain you 60-70 metres, win the next contest, rinse and repeat.

He doesn't tend to overthink things which is a good thing because ability to read the game is among a handful of weaknesses that come with the package. How you cover those weaknesses and maximize his strengths will be interesting to see over the coming months.

 

[Andrew P]

Hasn't really hurt us though. Too many of his kicks against us are hacked kicks forward that don't advantage his team. If you can get that out of his game he will become much more dangerous against us

Spot on , the Hawks would many times allow Danger and Thompson to gather possession only to lay pressure on disposal with a wall 40-50 metres ahead and then kill them on the spread . Crows stupidly fell into this play in that final last year . Sometimes you have to be the hunter .

As for Geelong being a flag threat , they are definitely in that second tier and closing the gap .
Can they win it in 2016 , if injury free they may go close !

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Despite countless posts explaining in great detail how Geelong have filled some massive gaps in it's structure through recruitment, even discounting injury completely, people still want to come in here and say 10th + Dangerfield = 9th.

Going to be a very interesting season.

Everyone is training the house down. Everyone has filled gaps. Everyone (aside from maybe Carlton) is optimistic. Similarly, everyone has different opinions on how the season will pan out.

The only fact in all this speculation is that the Cats finished 10th last year, they have lost Kelly (and to a lesser extent SJ) from their midfield and gained Danger and little Selwood.

You guys can downplay the loss of Kelly and SJ from the midfield all you want but they were still influential, classy, big bodied midfielders who knew the Geelong structure. Dangerfield and little Selwood balances this loss nicely but in my opinion, it wont lead to a drastic rise up the ladder. The midfield depth just isn't great. Yet.

I'm not claiming to know more about Geelong than Geelong supporters, just putting in my 2c on the topic of the thread.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Wow-weeee!

104 pages of discussion on whether Geelong will be a serious flag threat in 2016. GFC looking at 50,000 members for the first time ever. Even if Dangerfield does not play a game, recruiting him has been a massive marketing success story.

He is a bashing, bustling, entertainment machine. Old school bang-it-on-the-boot, territory-gaining player.

He creates discussion wherever he goes, this should be no suprise to you.

Not to mention the Cats have created a lot of neutral interest with their recruiting options this off-season

 

[nowhereneargeelong]

I've said it before and I'll say it again...

Geelong have a VERY cushy fixture and are a lock for top 6 on this fact alone - even without the new players coming into the side.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

I've said it before and I'll say it again...

Geelong have a VERY cushy fixture and are a lock for top 6 on this fact alone - even without the new players coming into the side.

Nobody is a lock for anything mate. The fixture will help but there are only 5 double up games over 22 weeks. Realistically, the difference between a good fixture and a bad one is only a couple of games.

 

[nowhereneargeelong]

Nobody is a lock for anything mate. The fixture will help but there are only 5 double up games over 22 weeks. Realistically, the difference between a good fixture and a bad one is only a couple of games.

Na, cats are a lock for top 6.

 

[Sttew]

He is a bashing, bustling, entertainment machine. Old school bang-it-on-the-boot, territory-gaining player.

He creates discussion wherever he goes, this should be no suprise to you.

And no doubt Hawthorn would love to have recruited him. There were several Hawks supporters who were convinced it was a done deal.

Moreover, there were other clubs who could have paid Paddy a hell of a lot more than what Geelong offered him, but he chose Geelong. You have to admire Dangerfield for sticking to his guns; he wanted to come home.

I digress.....