Mistakes I have made

This thread is for us to learn off of our own mistakes.

This year I chose to structure my squad using a formula that I have developed from past seasons.

This formula assumes that I will make 8 double trades (16 trades in total) in the development of my squad. 4 trades to be held to cover for injuries after the 16th trade is made.

The structure of my squad was based around this many trades.

I selected 8 cash cows and 8 low / medium priced players who were expected to improve in value but mainly act as the player to be upgraded.

The remaining players were as premium as I could get.

Most of you would have had some similar thought process in place - you might disagree about the 16:4 as being risky but this isn't where I consider I have erred. My error has been in where I have selected my premiums.

I did what most people probably did and sought value mid priced midfielders, I also got some good defenders and spent way too much on premium forwards.

Now I am having to carry these high priced bludgers while I try and trade for premium mids to compensate.

same as kildonan, way too much on the showboat forwards
pav brown sj
getting gilmore instead of cox, not as a replacement, but i thought he was underpriced, how wrong i have been so far!
not spending enough on midfield.
what you have said kildonana, as far as teh structure goes, i think it is something that needs to be analysed season by season, rather then a single formula for every year, i also made this mistake as well.

probably didnt do enough work on which premiums to pick, instead just got them because they are premium, needed more homework on them similar to my middle/rookie picks
to this point bowden, a poster who i respect in sante said he doesnt thing bowden should come back this week, so could be a huge mistake at this point.

just looking at the sheer size of my post doesnt make me feel all too good about my team!

Kildonan said:

This thread is for us to learn off of our own mistakes.

This year I chose to structure my squad using a formula that I have developed from past seasons.

This formula assumes that I will make 8 double trades (16 trades in total) in the development of my squad. 4 trades to be held to cover for injuries after the 16th trade is made.

The structure of my squad was based around this many trades.

I selected 8 cash cows and 8 low / medium priced players who were expected to improve in value but mainly act as the player to be upgraded.

The remaining players were as premium as I could get.

Most of you would have had some similar thought process in place - you might disagree about the 16:4 as being risky but this isn't where I consider I have erred. My error has been in where I have selected my premiums.

I did what most people probably did and sought value mid priced midfielders, I also got some good defenders and spent way too much on premium forwards.

Now I am having to carry these high priced bludgers while I try and trade for premium mids to compensate.

Click to expand...

Nearly an identical strategy as mine.
I try and go by this 16:4 strategy every year but it always seems to turn into a 14:6 strategy due to the injury curse.
Sometimes i might pick the majority of my premiums in the backs, other years in the forwards but this year, i spread it out across all areas.

The point i have quoted in bold is something i really want to discuss.

It can create a hell of a lot of discussion and debate and that is, who are the "best" premiums in each department.
It would be nice to see everyone post their own opinion on the:
Top 7 Backs
Top 6 Midfielders
Top 2 Rucks
Top 7 Forwards

The rucks and forwards are easy but have a shot at them all with a brief summary of your reasoning behind your selections.

1. Taking Hampson and Kreuzer on the bench. My theory was that there was absolutely no value in the rucks under these guys and what was the point of a having an 83K playing doing nothing. I should have taken a 73K player and called it a day with just Kreuz on the pine. In saying that, if Hampson can get another 2-3 games i can ditch him for a rookie and pocket a nice 70K. So this might still come off I suppose. But i'd love that 60K back now.

2. N.Thompson. Theory was that i had to take one of Dew, Bradshaw or N.Thompson. I thought Dew was fat and wouldn't even make the Hawks team. That was my 'gut' feeling. Lucky for me he got injured making my decision seem not so bad. As for Bradshaw, well he wasn't due back until about round 4 or 5. When he got back earlier I was dubious and N.Thompson has been pretty much ready to play since last October. Anyway, got rid of Thommo for Hill and am about 100K up atm, but it went against my motto of 2 trade = premium.

3. Starting a rookie backman. There was just ____ all quality between 83K-250K bracket before the season. I already had Ellis so i needed another and i couldn't find one. So i went with 3 rookies and 1 had to play. Hartlett got himself rubbed out and hasn't returned and SDT and Hansen have been just as useful. Anyway I now have Wona and Pfieffer. Yes I broke my motto again and am looking like a true noob.

4. Breaking my motto. It means Porpz, Symes and Burton now become keepers(if I factor in 4 trades for injuries). Hopefully they will become my 6th/7th best scorers in each position.

5. Picking Brad Johnson. Sounds silly but I just knew he couldn't back it up as age starts to get to him. I know he's injured and should bounce back but I doubt he'll be scoring as many 100's as he used to. (I picked BJ over Riewoldt because of the 'knee tendinitis' he was suffering and thought C.Gardiner would take Roo's spot up the field leaving Riewoldt deeper and he needs lots of marks/kicks to get good scores consistently)

theone5 said:

It would be nice to see everyone post their own opinion on the:
Top 7 Backs
Top 6 Midfielders
Top 2 Rucks
Top 7 Forwards

The rucks and forwards are easy but have a shot at them all with a brief summary of your reasoning behind your selections.

Click to expand...

I made a thread on this not too long ago on the main board. I'll dig it up later and expand on it.

about a billion on a test i did yesterday....

on a serious note,
1. not getting cox from the start...now have him, from this i have learnt that no matter what the price you cant go past big cox as the big fella always performs
2. picking up fev from the start, i got him at the start last year and had to trade him he was a massive dissapointment, i traded him after round 2 for hill and although fev has dominated and gone up quite a bit, he will have some very bad weeks and was always going to have to be upgraded, i think the greater price rise in hill was worth it

my cash cows have been great tho this year, pfeiffer from the start has been good, palmer and morton and bird from the start has been good, having kreuzer and leuenberger means i can trade one out once they peak in price, finally the only dissapointment was picking up jake edwards

I assume this thead is not for the chosen player mistakes I have made, it would take me too long to get through them.

As for structural errors, as many others have eluded to taking the power forwards at the start was a massive error. 2 years in a row these have been early dissapointments and because of the nature of the position can always be traded in at a value price. Next year will be looking for smaller / mobile forwards to start with who can rotate throught the midfield (Chappy / Porps / Didak types).

Not steering completely clear of the < 200K backs when they were obviously extremely weak. Partly this was due to lockout issues and who would / would not be named.

Mid priced "hopefuls" in the midfield (Dyson / Buckley) was poor strategy as unless they are proven historically they are unlikely to make as much as a rookie. Again the lockout hurt but apart from Stevens (proven) should probably have taken a high / low strategy in the mids. Could easily have started with Bird / Jack / Morton / Palmer to save cash and played 2 of the 4. Palmer not named Rd 1 but talked up as getting an early game.

I don't see this as a mistake but have been very surprised by the performance of those coming back off knee reco's. Will watch this closely as improved rehab may possibly be helping them recover better in their first season back.

From a strategy point of view next year will be easier due to normal lockout but looking to load up midfield (and possibly forward rookies), not mess with mid-priced mids and steer clear of power forwards.

Macintosh over Simmonds - Thought the lack of preseason (particularly the blood thinning medication reducing aerobic ability) meant that Simmonds was underdone and overhyped. Thought Big-Mac was on the rise and was worth the extra 120k. He wasn't...

Reading too much into the preseason form of players I was once sure weren't good enough. I thought they would be unique. I usually hate to pick players because they are unique, becuase if they were any good they wouldn't be unique. I'm looking at you Chris Egan and Ed Barlow. (I feel dirty admitting that I picked them.) I have learned my lesson = UNIQUE FOR A REASON. Thankfully Hill and Wona came along. Neither will be guns but they will serve a purpose and can't be worse.

Nathan Jones - I'm not completely convinced I was wrong yet but it looks that way. I don't think I was talked into it by the discussion on the main board becuase I had an eye on him last year as an improver, but reading the MB with all of the talking up can't have helped me see the other options. Might be OK if Melbourne ever get the ball and he gets his tackles back up. He will go but not yet.

- Starting a rookie on the field in my backline
- Picking too many guns who are doing poorly in the forwards
- Not picking Jake King (i figured second year player....., should have realised he would have been an exception because of older age, developed body etc..)

Kept too much faith in Coughlan as a midfield reserve, essentially wasting $100,000 on capital better spent elsewhere. This also means I missed out on scooping Ibbotson for 96K.

Traded out Bradshaw for Hill after two rounds...ok, can't call this a mistake, but shoulda had Bradshaw in the backline to start with.

iamthestig said:

Macintosh over Simmonds - Thought the lack of preseason (particularly the blood thinning medication reducing aerobic ability) meant that Simmonds was underdone and overhyped. Thought Big-Mac was on the rise and was worth the extra 120k. He wasn't...

Click to expand...

I was looking at my desired final ruck duo and tossing up between Cox/White, and Cox/Mcintosh. Figured White was due for a drop because of his age, and Mcintosh would continue to improve. So I picked McIntosh and Simmonds (with the intention of trading Simmonds for Cox once Simmonds went up, and Cox came down). My lesson learned from this - just because they have some years behind them (Milburn, P.Burgoyne, White...) doesn't mean they're past it. It is a tightrope though - I've been thinking R.Harvey is past his prime for about 3 years now, and damned if he doesn't continue to perform. Looks like this is finally the year he has crested.

I also bought into the hype about this years batch of rookies, and assumed that the back rookie stocks wouldn't be as thin as previous years. Consequently, I started a rookie, which hasn't proven to be the best move. About 90% of my mock teams (think I went through ~40 permutations) were based on not starting a rookie in the backs, adn then I went against my better judgement to improve one more power forward. That's part one of my team structure error.

Part two is power forwards. I just picked the wrong ones. SJ, JB, Pav all with ordinary starts to the season, when I could have picked up Riewoldt, Chapman, Richo, etc. Next year I'll probably just start with Roo and Pav, field two rookies and select three Didak/Hall/Porplyzia level players.

Part three was the mids. Again, nearly all my team permutations saw me starting two rookies. I chewed an extra 100K in swallowing the pre-season form of Houli, which consequently saw me starting a rookie in the backs. It's pretty much my golden selection rule - two rookies starting in the mids.

thebaxters said:

I was looking at my desired final ruck duo and tossing up between Cox/White, and Cox/Mcintosh. Figured White was due for a drop because of his age, and Mcintosh would continue to improve. So I picked McIntosh and Simmonds (with the intention of trading Simmonds for Cox once Simmonds went up, and Cox came down). My lesson learned from this - just because they have some years behind them (Milburn, P.Burgoyne, White...) doesn't mean they're past it. It is a tightrope though - I've been thinking R.Harvey is past his prime for about 3 years now, and damned if he doesn't continue to perform. Looks like this is finally the year he has crested.

I also bought into the hype about this years batch of rookies, and assumed that the back rookie stocks wouldn't be as thin as previous years. Consequently, I started a rookie, which hasn't proven to be the best move. About 90% of my mock teams (think I went through ~40 permutations) were based on not starting a rookie in the backs, adn then I went against my better judgement to improve one more power forward. That's part one of my team structure error.

Part two is power forwards. I just picked the wrong ones. SJ, JB, Pav all with ordinary starts to the season, when I could have picked up Riewoldt, Chapman, Richo, etc. Next year I'll probably just start with Roo and Pav, field two rookies and select three Didak/Hall/Porplyzia level players.

Part three was the mids. Again, nearly all my team permutations saw me starting two rookies. I chewed an extra 100K in swallowing the pre-season form of Houli, which consequently saw me starting a rookie in the backs. It's pretty much my golden selection rule - two rookies starting in the mids.

Click to expand...

That's the ticket.

The mistake this year is that I wanted a lot more forward rookies... but my structure (of spending big up forward) wouldn't allow it.

Gamble, Rioli, Hill. The three of them had a smashing pre-season and had every right for all three to be included in my starting squad. (or at least 2 of them, with another (plus a jetta or a tippett) on the bench

It certainly would have left me with a lot more to spend on the midfield (which I skimped on).

So lesson learnt. go light where you see talent. This changes year to year...

One thing I've found, that differenciates Supercoach from Dreamteam is this - You don't often see a 20 or a 30 from your power forwards an DT.

You do see this in SC though (brownie, Pav, BJ have all done it). Combining this with the fact that salary movements are more pronounced within SC (Have a higher Salary Factor as I call it), You'll find that upgrading to powerforwards is a lot easier over there than it is to pick up any other position...

Which further lends towards not spending big on the forwards...