1 Ruck or 2 ??? The Midfield Performance Misconception!

[Charlie Bucket]

With the amount of OSD (Obsessive Sweet Disorder) and Mandela Effect hitting peak levels over the last week, I thought I’d look in to the stats behind the claims our midfield gets dominated when we only play 1 ruck.

Turns out The Mandela Effect is strong in this claim.

Since the start of last season...

1 Ruck (with a hybrid 2nd ruck) - Our mids have won the clearance battle 76% of the time. 21-5


2 Genuine Rucks - Our mids have won the clearance battle 72% of the time. 8-3

Not only is the “our mids get dominated when we only play one ruck” wrong, it’s wrong by the length of the Flemington straight.

There’s quiet a few that have got this quiet often had 1 Ruck/2Ruck/Mid Performance discussion, terribly wrong.

Keen to hear everyone’s thoughts because this specifically highlights how good our midfield actually is regardless of who’s rucking, including those we consider genuine rucks.

Kudos to our midfield group. Hopefully the dominance continues tomorrow night!

 

[footscray1973]

I reckon Bevo should give the 3-headed ruck monster a run. English, Martin AND Sweet.

Hafey's Tigers played 3 genuine rucks consistently, 73/74 worked out ok for them. Balme, McKellar, Green, Whale. Bevo needs to become a better student of history.

Naughton = Hart
2022 Dogs midfield > 73/74 Tigers mids
Robbie McGhie was tough, but a poor man's Alex Keath

42

Alex Keath

Age

32

Ht

198cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.0

4star

K

8.9

3star

HB

5.1

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.5

3star

MG

206.7

3star

D

11.0

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.6

1star

MG

193.4

3star

D

11.4

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

165.0

3star

Play more rucks, not less Lukey-Luke!

 

[Charlie Bucket]

I reckon Bevo should give the 3-headed ruck monster a run. English, Martin AND Sweet.

Hafey's Tigers played 3 genuine rucks consistently, 73/74 worked out ok for them. Balme, McKellar, Green, Whale. Bevo needs to become a better student of history.

Naughton = Hart
2022 Dogs midfield > 73/74 Tigers mids
Robbie McGhie was tough, but a poor man's Alex Keath

Play more rucks, not less Lukey-Luke!

Now we’re talking.

3 rucks and a Rover at each stoppage could be a modern game changer.

 

[footscray1973]

Now we’re talking.

3 rucks and a Rover at each stoppage could be a modern game changer.

The single rover started the game
His three rucks casting shady
His clearances were sublime
But to a one-tall forward line
Intercepting defenders made gra-a-avy

Ah de doo, ah de doo di day

 

[ScragCity]

People overestimate how much influence the ruck contest has on the game. That's the whole problem with the OSD brigade. If they knew that we have a positive clearance differential when Dunkley rucks then their heads would explode.

 

[ringa5]

We all have our opinions on it .I also think we are one forward short .At least Wallis could have played.Althogh he is emergency.
Bev has obviously lost faith in Schache otherwise he would play .And not convinced yet about Jamarra's contested work .Especially against Geelong
So l imagine he is shaping the side for when Bruce returns.
2 rucks now dead and buried
Bev is coach and that's that.
And like most l would do it differently
And probably be coaching the bottom side.As l am not Bev.

 

[ScragCity]

The whole idea that Bev is ideologically opposed to playing two rucks is the biggest myth on this board. If we had two decent rucks on the list then he would play both. He was more than happy to play Stef and English together before the former's body broke down completely. If you want to say that we should have been more aggressive in trying to recruit a second ruck then that's a different discussion.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

The whole idea that Bev is ideologically opposed to playing two rucks is the biggest myth on this board. If we had two decent rucks on the list then he would play both. He was more than happy to play Stef and English together before the former's body broke down completely. If you want to say that we should have been more aggressive in trying to recruit a second ruck then that's a different discussion.

“The Mandela Effect is an observed phenomenon in which a large segment of the population misremembers a significant event or shares a memory of an event that did not actually occur”

Relevant in both the supposed one ruck policy and the midfield performance misconception.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

This season we’re going at 91% clearance win rate. 1 Ruck x 10 games, 2 Ruck x 1 game.

 

[_Mike_]

Might be a bit short sighted to look at the clearance stats alone, English is still short of a tank and was struggling earlier in the season.

He was more than happy to play Stef and English together before the former's body broke down completely

In fairness Scrag over the two seasons Martin has barely played and they never really got in sync as a tandem ruck duo. Martin's played a season too long IMO

 

[footscray1973]

Does anyone remember that game where English played forward, only 10% in the ruck, and Sweet rucked 90% and dominated, and they both kicked 4 goals? Or is that just me? (From memory, I think it was last year against Juventus, but Nadal pulling out at the last minute left them a defender short, so played into our hands a bit.)

 

[doggies ftw]

Straight clearance numbers are so irrelevant, we’ve heavily invested in our midfield to the point that other parts of the ground have suffered a bit. Obviously we’d expect to win the midfield battle with anyone in the ruck with Bont, Macrae, Dunks, Libba, Baz, Treloar running around in there. But as we know we need to dominate the midfield to win and if we don’t dominate generally we’ll struggle.

No one has claimed our mids get dominated across a whole game when we have one ruck

As we’ve seen with Cordy in there the other team can get a huge advantage in just 5-6 mins a quarter, doesn’t mean we didn’t win the clearance differential overall though.

There’s also the difference in clearances, ie Pittonet hitting it down old mates throat whose waltzed in and slammed home a goal 15secs into the Carlton game vs Cordy losing a hitout which Libba sharks and shanks a quick kick forward. These are not the same thing.

If you’re going to make the point and claim it as fact at least put some thought and research into it and give us important stats ie clearance differential per ruck with 2 rucks vs 1, scores from clearances per ruck with 2 rucks vs 1, scores against from clearances with 2 rucks vs 1

Youve gone to so little effort you haven’t even bothered to take into account which teams we won and lost the clearances against. Winning the clearances against Norf with 1 ruck is not the same as losing the clearances against Melb with two.

In short, terrrrrribly s**t post which has added literally nothing to the debate - pls try harder man, surely you don’t actually think this is some insightful stats filled masterpiece you’ve constructed here

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Might be a bit short sighted to look at the clearance stats alone, English is still short of a tank and was struggling earlier in the season.



In fairness Scrag over the two seasons Martin has barely played and they never really got in sync as a tandem ruck duo. Martin's played a season too long IMO

It’s not short sighted at all.

The main metric which midfield group performance is based on is clearances and contested possessions.

Clearances are a direct result of rucks/midfield and midfielder/midfielder relationship at stoppages.

Contested possession more individually influenced.

There’s other areas of midfield performance away from stoppages that can be measured in other ways. But as far as ruck/midfield goes, clearances are it.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Straight clearance numbers are so irrelevant, we’ve heavily invested in our midfield to the point that other parts of the ground have suffered a bit. Obviously we’d expect to win the midfield battle with anyone in the ruck with Bont, Macrae, Dunks, Libba, Baz, Treloar running around in there. But as we know we need to dominate the midfield to win and if we don’t dominate generally we’ll struggle.

As we’ve seen with Cordy in there the other team can get a huge advantage in just 5-6 mins a quarter, doesn’t mean we didn’t win the clearance differential overall though.

If you’re going to make the point and claim it as fact at least put some thought and research into it and give us important stats ie clearance differential with 2 rucks vs 1, scores from clearances with 2 rucks vs 1, scores against from clearances with 2 rucks vs 1

That’s a different discussion dftw.

Your point along with others is that our midfield struggles playing only one ruck.

That’s factually incorrect. In fact it’s the opposite. We win more stoppage work with 1 ruck than we do with 2.

Once ball clears the stoppage, other factors are at play including the influence of every players not at that stoppage and how they are set up. That’s a different point of discussion.

Happy to talk about that if you want? I don’t have stats at hand though.

 

[Martyn_30_]

With two rucks the side is 8/3 (73%) with one ruck it's 16/10 (62%), so there's a clear difference in the results between the two setups. Clearances alone are a very broad stat which means very little, centre vs stoppage, damaging vs non damaging, putting extra numbers to the stoppage to protect the midfield etc.

With Sweet the side is 7/1 (88%) and without him 17/12 (59%) which is a huge difference and hard to explain through random chance.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

With two rucks the side is 8/3 (73%) with one ruck it's 16/10 (62%), so there's a clear difference in the results between the two setups. Clearances alone are a very broad stat which means very little, centre vs stoppage, damaging vs non damaging, putting extra numbers to the stoppage to protect the midfield etc.

With Sweet the side is 7/1 (88%) and without him 17/12 (59%) which is a huge difference and hard to explain through random chance.

And in the majority of those games we’ve won with Sweet, he was the lone ruckman.

The win loss stats are so irrelevant, it’s silly that poster keep bringing them up.

 

[Foxman98]

With two rucks the side is 8/3 (73%) with one ruck it's 16/10 (62%), so there's a clear difference in the results between the two setups. Clearances alone are a very broad stat which means very little, centre vs stoppage, damaging vs non damaging, putting extra numbers to the stoppage to protect the midfield etc.

With Sweet the side is 7/1 (88%) and without him 17/12 (59%) which is a huge difference and hard to explain through random chance.

Are you talking wins? Teams played and their position on the ladder make it fairly easy to explain

 

[LondonBulldog]

Any stat can back up any argument.

We were 10 and 2 playing two rucks start of last year. Probably the most important stat.

For what it worth I would only play 1 ruck this week. Yet there will be times when we should play 2, if anything as I've said before to preserve English who has faulted in finals after long home and away rounds. He stamina is getting better but don't run him into the ground.

 

[doggies ftw]

And in the majority of those games we’ve won with Sweet, he was the lone ruckman.

The win loss stats are so irrelevant, it’s silly that poster keep bringing them up.

So teams played is relevant for win/loss stats but not for clearances won/lost stats?

Okey

 

[Charlie Bucket]

You don’t understand the term teams played? U are not well dude

Who mentioned anything about teams played?

Why would you bring it up? Lol

 

[DognBones]

I'm not so concerned about the ruck issue but I do agree we seem to lack another forward who can take an overhead mark. It's a bit too much of a mosquito fleet down there. At the very least Wallis should be the sub, he is always good for a goal or two if he gets on the park. Our forward entries will need to be clean and precise or I can see Geelong's backs snaffling the great majority of high balls.

 

[Foxman98]

It’s a pretty simple question my man - just answer it.

A) 2 rucks: 5 direct goals from stoppages, 50 clearances against Melbourne - who had 0 goals from stoppages, 51 clearances.

Or

B) 1 ruck: 0 direct goals from stoppages, 51 clearances against Norf - who had 5 goals from stoppages, 50 clearances

Which, in your mind, is a better game from our midfield?

B slightly better by 1. Unless you want to provide the goal assist and goals from midfielders stats from both games. The midfields job is to get the clearance to the forwards what they do after that isn't on the midfield

 

[doggies ftw]

B slightly better by 1. Unless you want to provide the goal assist and goals from midfielders stats from both games. The midfields job is to get the clearance to the forwards what they do after that isn't on the midfield

5 goals directly out of the stoppage, from HOTA

Even forgetting the goals, you think winning the clearances by 1 against the worst team in the comp is better than losing the clearances by 1 against the best midfield in the comp?

 

[ScragCity]

Those who never provide any kind of statistical evidence to support their arguments love to point out why the stats others provide are misleading...

 

[Foxman98]

5 goals directly out of the stoppage, from HOTA

Even forgetting the goals, you think winning the clearances by 1 against the worst team in the comp is better than losing the clearances by 1 against the best midfield in the comp?

Once again no they involve scoring chains from stoppages not directly hit out kick mark goal. You can dominate clearance and have your forwards miss sitters (which happens in our team) and the scoring doesn't look good.

North have a decent midfield group the rest of their team is poor granted but Simpkin Thomas LDU Horne-Francis Anderson isn't the worst.