2014 NRL Season

[Willzzz]

NRL Rd 26
5 – 13 – 0 (-8.378U)

NRL YTD
125 – 118 – 1 @ 51.4% (+17.00U) – ROI -1.99%

Not sure what happened, was very busy during the week so didn't get a chance to do the in-depth analysis.

Still doesn't explain the train wreck though.

My ROI % is in the negatives so overall, I have lost money in the NRL YTD, despite the quite healthy +17U.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

How can you have a negative ROI with a postive return?

 

[Willzzz]

How can you have a negative ROI with a postive return?

My Unit stakes are based on my bank roll (profit levels).

So when I have a few really good weeks (all sports considered), I will increase my stakes.

 

[Jugada]

If you want to up your stakes you should just bet more units rather than changing how much a unit is worth every couple of weeks otherwise your stats won't add up and become a bit meaningless. It's probably also not a great idea to start betting bigger as soon as you get a couple of wins because those spikes will even out over time and you will need the profit from those winning runs to counter for when the inevitable run of outs comes

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Not trying to be a smartass, but it still doesn't make sense, regardless of if you have changed your unit sizes.

If you've made $1 of profit in real terms (hence +'ve units), then your ROI must be greater than 0.

 

[Jugada]

I think his ROI is based on actual $ returned. So say he won 10u week 1, then doubled his $ value per unit and lost 7u. So his profit/loss still reads +3u but down actual $ overall

As I said before, really messy way of doing things and makes stats kept a bit useless to be honest because they don't add up.

I could be wrong but that's the only way it makes sense to me

 

[Willzzz]

Not trying to be a smartass, but it still doesn't make sense, regardless of if you have changed your unit sizes.

If you've made $1 of profit in real terms (hence +'ve units), then your ROI must be greater than 0.

Yep what Jugada said was right.

So using your example, if I used $1 stakes for Rounds 1-12, and was up 50U = $50 Profit
Rounds 12-23, I up to stakes to $2 and I'm down 30U = -$60

So overall, I am down $10 (giving me a negative ROI), but I am up 20U overall.

 

[Willzzz]

As I said before, really messy way of doing things and makes stats kept a bit useless to be honest because they don't add up.

Not really.
It would be more messy if I kept a Profit in Dollars tally because then bets placed in Round 23, would have 3-4x the effect of a bet in Round 1. That is just silly.

Units, on the other hand, aren't affected by what has happened in the preceding weeks/months, which is how it should be.
So a 1U play in Round 1 is equal to a 1U play in Round 23.

 

[Atavistic]

With all their injuries I'm tempted to bet against Manly this week, and maybe stick the Rabbits in some multis.

 

[SpecialComments]

Manly +9.5
Sydney -6.5
Nth Qld -4.5
Bulldogs +10.5

All up paying $7.11

 

[Willzzz]

NRL Preliminary Final – Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

2U – South Sydney Rabbitohs -6.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)
0.5U – South Sydney Rabbitohs -6 @ $1.90 (Pinnacle Sports)
0.15U – 1st Scoring Play: South Sydney Penalty Goal @ $9 (Bet365)
0.15U – 1st Scoring Play: Manly Sea Eagles Penalty Goal @ $9 (Bet365)

 

[Willzzz]

NRL Preliminary Final – Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

2U – South Sydney Rabbitohs -6.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365) WIN
0.5U – South Sydney Rabbitohs -6 @ $1.90 (Pinnacle Sports) WIN
0.15U – 1st Scoring Play: South Sydney Penalty Goal @ $9 (Bet365) LOSS
0.15U – 1st Scoring Play: Manly Sea Eagles Penalty Goal @ $9 (Bet365) LOSS

Game Result:
2 – 2 – 0 (+2.01U)

 

[DylanR]

3U panthers +10.5 @1.93
2U TMP <40.5 @1.80

 

[happy punter]

Roosters 13+ over Panthers @ 2.15 (3 units)

 

[happy punter]

That was the most square at play in the board. 80% of punters on that. Did you really think the roosters were gonna smash anyone after a chalky Friday night I which the public cleaned up on the Rabbitohs?

Thanks for letting me know after the fact

 

[Willzzz]

**Apologies, the below bets were posted in the AFL Finals Week 2 thread by accident yesterday morning.

NRL Preliminary Final: Sydney Roosters vs Penrith Panthers

3U – Penrith Panthers +10.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365) WIN
0.3U – Penrith Panthers SU @ $4.25 (Tattsbet) HEDGED OUT – 0U
0.5U – Penrith Panthers +10 @ $1.952 (Pinnacle Sports) WIN
2U – Under SYD/PEN 38.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365) WIN

Game Result:
3 – 0 – 1 (+5.056U)

Shouldn't have hedged out my Panthers SU bet.


NRL Elimination Final: North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos

2.5U – North Queensland Cowboys -7.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365) WIN
0.2U – 1st Scoring Play: North Queensland Cowboys Penalty Goal @ $11 (Topsport) LOSS

Game Result:
1 – 1 – 0 (+2.125U)

 

[Willzzz]

NRL Elimination Final: Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs

2.5U – Melbourne Storm -8 @ $1.952 (Pinnacle Sports)
1U – HT/FT: Melb/Melb @ $1.80 (Bet365)

 

[Willzzz]

NRL Elimination Final: Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs

2.5U – Melbourne Storm -8 @ $1.952 (Pinnacle Sports) LOSS
1U – HT/FT: Melb/Melb @ $1.80 (Bet365)LOSS

Game Result:
0 – 2 – 0 (-3.5U)

 

[Willzzz]

NRL Finals Weeks 1
6 – 5 – 1 (+5.72U)

NRL YTD
131 – 123 – 1 @ 51.6% (+22.72U) – ROI 2.34%

Back in the positive.

 

[Atavistic]

1U on Canterbury-Hawks-Swans multi@$3.00.

 

[Willzzz]

NRL Semi-Final: Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys

3U – Sydney Roosters -6 @ $1.91 (Bet365)
0.35U – 1st Scoring Play: NQL Penalty Goal @ $12 (Bet365)
0.15U – 1st Scoring Play: Sydney Roosters Penalty Goal @ $10 (Bet365)
0.2U – 1st Try Scorer: Jennings @ $9 (Topsport – Refund if 2nd or 3rd Try Scorer)
0.2U – 1st Try Scorer: Tupou @ $9 (Topsport – Refund if 2nd or 3rd Try Scorer)
0.1U – 1st Try Scorer: Tuivasa Sheck @ $12 (Topsport – Refund if 2nd or 3rd Try Scorer)

 

[Willzzz]

NRL Semi-Final: Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys

3U – Sydney Roosters -6 @ $1.91 (Bet365) LOSS* – Was Up 30 – 0
0.35U – 1st Scoring Play: NQL Penalty Goal @ $12 (Bet365) LOSS
0.15U – 1st Scoring Play: Sydney Roosters Penalty Goal @ $10 (Bet365) LOSS
0.2U – 1st Try Scorer: Jennings @ $9 (Topsport – Refund if 2nd or 3rd Try Scorer)REFUND – 2nd Try Scorer
0.2U – 1st Try Scorer: Tupou @ $9 (Topsport – Refund if 2nd or 3rd Try Scorer) REFUND – 3rd Try Scorer
0.1U – 1st Try Scorer: Tuivasa Sheck @ $12 (Topsport – Refund if 2nd or 3rd Try Scorer) LOSS

Game Result:
0 – 4 – 2 (-3.6U)

Sigh, one of those nights.

 

[Boxhead182]

LOCK IN THE DOGS FOR TONIGHT!!!
Lock of the week.

 

[happy punter]

That game last night was absolute madness.

 

[Willzzz]

NRL Semi-Final: Manly Sea Eagles vs Canterbury Bulldogs

3U – Canterbury Bulldogs -4 @ $1.93 (Bet365)