France's election campaign is well under way, with the first round election just two weeks away. Currently it looks like a near certainty that Macron will be the first President to win a second term since Jacques Chirac, but there are still some points of interest in the election - as the Republicans and the Socialists, the two parties that dominated the Fifth Republic for four decades, both languishing (with the Socialists polling at 2%, half of the Communist Party's polling numbers). There are five candidates who have looked like having anything like a shot at making the second round:
Valérie Pécresse - one of the more popular ministers from the Sarkozy Government, Pécresse is the Republican candidate for President. Their polling numbers are holding up reasonably all things considered after the corruption scandals involving Sarkozy and 2017 presidential candidate François Fillon, and Pécresse was polling in second place at the start of the year (with some polls suggesting she could defeat Macron in the Second Round). She has been crowded out, however, by the far-right on one hand and Macron on the other, and she's been left unable to get the cut through that one might expect. Instead she is currently battling it out for fourth alongside...
Éric Zemmour - a far right journalist, Zemmour has the endorsement of Jean-Marie Le Pen, who has split from his daughter as she isn't hardline enough. Zemmour has sought to give intellectual heft to traditional far right bigotry, claiming to be a Gaullo-Bonapartiste. He believes that immigration is destroying France, and that acceptance of homosexuality and women's right to abortion are seeing the European French become a minority to the Muslims in the country (who are mostly there due to the country's history of imperialism, but that doesn't stop him). Zemmour's January conviction for inciting hate against child migrants (saying "They are thieves, they are murderers, they are rapists, that’s all they are, they must be sent back") only bolstered his standing in the polls, with right-wing free speech champions (on issues they agree with) gravitating towards him. Zemmour's longstanding support for Putin, however, badly backfired post-Ukraine invasion and now has him drifting away from...
Jean-Luc Mélenchon - the good boy of French politics, and only hope for the left at this election, Mélenchon has begun a surge after polling 4th in both the 2012 and 2017 elections. Compared in the Anglosphere to Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn, Mélenchon was a Mitterand-era Socialist politician before splitting from the party in 2008, and becoming hyper-critical of Hollande's centrism. He was less than 2% of the vote away from making the Second Round in 2017, and his break through in to the second round here would allow for a return to a traditional left-right election. While he struggled early on to make any headway with this election, his polling in the last month has increased to see him push ahead of the previous two *heads, with one still standing in the way...
Marine Le Pen - since her father shocked everyone and made it into the final two in 2002 (and subsequently was crushed in an 82-18 landslide), the hereditary title of Leader of the far-right National Front fell to Marine. Since replicating her father's feat in 2017, although with a much closer Second Round result, Le Pen has sought to soften her image somewhat, renaming the party National Rally and expelling her father from the party. Her embrace of economic populism has helped her stay ahead of Zemmour and other rivals to the far right crown, Le Pen has managed to avoid her praise of Putin hurting her chances so far. She looks most likely to place second, and have a rerun of 2017 against...
Emmanuel Macron - campaigning as a centrist in 2017, there is little question now of Macron's right-wing tendencies. Tax cuts to the wealthy, ongoing wars with unions and placing himself one degree to Le Pen's left on immigration and Islam, Macron has been a typical Third Way politician. Nonetheless, his approval ratings are reasonably good by French standards (Hollande, his predecessor, once achieved a 4% approval rating), and he has been bolstered by the praise for his response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Nonetheless, some cracks appear to be appearing in this, however he is certainly getting through to the Second Round, with polls indicating he will currently receive between 55% and 65% against his four likely opponents.
It seems a fait accompli, but will the global discord throw up any further surprises in the race? We will see in two and four weeks!
Valérie Pécresse - one of the more popular ministers from the Sarkozy Government, Pécresse is the Republican candidate for President. Their polling numbers are holding up reasonably all things considered after the corruption scandals involving Sarkozy and 2017 presidential candidate François Fillon, and Pécresse was polling in second place at the start of the year (with some polls suggesting she could defeat Macron in the Second Round). She has been crowded out, however, by the far-right on one hand and Macron on the other, and she's been left unable to get the cut through that one might expect. Instead she is currently battling it out for fourth alongside...
Éric Zemmour - a far right journalist, Zemmour has the endorsement of Jean-Marie Le Pen, who has split from his daughter as she isn't hardline enough. Zemmour has sought to give intellectual heft to traditional far right bigotry, claiming to be a Gaullo-Bonapartiste. He believes that immigration is destroying France, and that acceptance of homosexuality and women's right to abortion are seeing the European French become a minority to the Muslims in the country (who are mostly there due to the country's history of imperialism, but that doesn't stop him). Zemmour's January conviction for inciting hate against child migrants (saying "They are thieves, they are murderers, they are rapists, that’s all they are, they must be sent back") only bolstered his standing in the polls, with right-wing free speech champions (on issues they agree with) gravitating towards him. Zemmour's longstanding support for Putin, however, badly backfired post-Ukraine invasion and now has him drifting away from...
Jean-Luc Mélenchon - the good boy of French politics, and only hope for the left at this election, Mélenchon has begun a surge after polling 4th in both the 2012 and 2017 elections. Compared in the Anglosphere to Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn, Mélenchon was a Mitterand-era Socialist politician before splitting from the party in 2008, and becoming hyper-critical of Hollande's centrism. He was less than 2% of the vote away from making the Second Round in 2017, and his break through in to the second round here would allow for a return to a traditional left-right election. While he struggled early on to make any headway with this election, his polling in the last month has increased to see him push ahead of the previous two *heads, with one still standing in the way...
Marine Le Pen - since her father shocked everyone and made it into the final two in 2002 (and subsequently was crushed in an 82-18 landslide), the hereditary title of Leader of the far-right National Front fell to Marine. Since replicating her father's feat in 2017, although with a much closer Second Round result, Le Pen has sought to soften her image somewhat, renaming the party National Rally and expelling her father from the party. Her embrace of economic populism has helped her stay ahead of Zemmour and other rivals to the far right crown, Le Pen has managed to avoid her praise of Putin hurting her chances so far. She looks most likely to place second, and have a rerun of 2017 against...
Emmanuel Macron - campaigning as a centrist in 2017, there is little question now of Macron's right-wing tendencies. Tax cuts to the wealthy, ongoing wars with unions and placing himself one degree to Le Pen's left on immigration and Islam, Macron has been a typical Third Way politician. Nonetheless, his approval ratings are reasonably good by French standards (Hollande, his predecessor, once achieved a 4% approval rating), and he has been bolstered by the praise for his response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Nonetheless, some cracks appear to be appearing in this, however he is certainly getting through to the Second Round, with polls indicating he will currently receive between 55% and 65% against his four likely opponents.
It seems a fait accompli, but will the global discord throw up any further surprises in the race? We will see in two and four weeks!
