AFL 2023 - AFL Round 22

[balmainforever]

 

[Atavistic]

Might take North at the line. Essendon's levels of shitness seem to peak around this time of year.

 

[Atavistic]

Also, I need Ret to PM me with tips on Sydney players before he places bets. (I missed out on McLean)

 

[balmainforever]

Surely the 1.90 on ladbrokes for the saints is way unders.
can see the saints win by 5+ goals

 

[based]

bold to assume theyll score 5 goals

 

[demon_fanatic]

Yeh Dusty and Cotchin likely back yes Tigers weren't great Friday but they still have the talent to win that game, odds are fair.. Sydney minus 18.5 looks good or a good multi leg, yes GCOAST have done well at SCG recently but Sydney playing for its life will have this on their mind and GC have packed up for the year now I feel.. also don't mind Eagles 25.5 start vs Freo they are showing some signs late year and can make this close I feel. Carlton obviously a good chance at 2.30 especially if Petty is out he's been great up forward for dees and will be a big loss just as Dees were finding the right mix down there.

Like Geelong too.. probably more desperate they win Pies still have some wiggle room up top of ladder..

 

[mac23]

Cross sports ‘teams playing for their lives vs teams that have packed up’ multi

AFL
Dons
Swans
Dogs

NRL
Sharks
Rabbitohs
Warriors
Knights

$6.50 SB Boost

Saints the other obvious play but can’t back their form and can’t discount Tigers playing for McQualter’s job

 

[sohohoho]

Surely the 1.90 on ladbrokes for the saints is way unders.
can see the saints win by 5+ goals

Tigers are a better team but motivation has to be questioned at this point, will be a watch on who they pick.

 

[fpm84]

McLean odds nowhere near as juicy as last week but $6.40 for 3+ on Lads is still pretty good in what should be a comfortable win for the Swans.

 

[dontlimitme]

am i crazy for thinking mccreery 15+ disposals at 5$ on 365? moved into mid final Q last week, feel like they will use him for CBAs he looked good he's very bull like

 

[HTPunter]

Briggs 20+ $2.65 B365

Coming off 24 & 20. Destroyed Hickey. Green in didn’t stop him being a bull.
Stanley 18 disposals v Visentini.

Visentini promising youngster but no match for Briggs who is quickly tracking towards being a top 5 ruck in the comp I reckon for everything he does.

Also had a nibble at 25+ $8.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Briggs 20+ $2.65 B365

Coming off 24 & 20. Destroyed Hickey. Green in didn’t stop him being a bull.
Stanley 18 disposals v Visentini.

Visentini promising youngster but no match for Briggs who is quickly tracking towards being a top 5 ruck in the comp I reckon for everything he does.

Also had a nibble at 25+ $8.

Dude just saw pbet has briggs $15 for 25! Only 2.00 for 20.. So 15 seems overs and a likely error lol

 

[HTPunter]

Dude just saw pbet has briggs $15 for 25! Only 2.00 for 20.. So 15 seems overs and a likely error lol

I only checked around for odds for 20, cheers for that. Bet365 is luckily the best cash out function on the market

 

[demon_fanatic]

I only checked around for odds for 20, cheers for that. Bet365 is luckily the best cash out function on the market

yeh great little bet as long as Port go the inexperienced dude again.. hopefully a few follow ups from Briggs hitouts and a solid first half to give this bet a chance.. 24 and 20 past two games

 

[demon_fanatic]

hmmm betright I found mcreery disposals only 3.8 for 15 but.. how much time in mid did he spend last week guys? all the 4th? and how many touches when into the middle? thanks

 

[bulletride]

anywhere other than 365 released mcreery disposals?

Betright and betr have him $3.80 for 15+ but nothing higher.

 

[sohohoho]

hmmm betright I found mcreery disposals only 3.8 for 15 but.. how much time in mid did he spend last week guys? all the 4th? and how many touches when into the middle? thanks

2nd half he had 9 CBAs for 8 disposals. Zero in 1st half.

The $5 was good and $3.80 maybe a little big but its not like he is a natural accumulator.

 

[HTPunter]

Jack Crisp

25

Jack Crisp

Age

30

Ht

190cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.2

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.7

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

MG

307.6

4star

D

17.7

4star

K

10.7

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

3star

MG

307.6

4star

D

14.4

4star

K

8.4

4star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.0

5star

the one for me to take a larger role as the center bounce mid. Shifted out with more Naicos, plus the Mitchell/Adams rotation.

10 touches & 8 CBA in the last quarter.

Think Lipinski stays as a flanker, Mitchell is clearly being worked through something (form, fitness, or role), McCreery is a burst player along with Elliott.

Pendlebury, De Goey, Crisp should get the 3 most CBA on Friday night for Collingwood.
Mitchell, Lipinski, McCreery probably the 2nd tier.

25+ $2.10 PB
30+ $6 PB

Don’t mind him for a goal or 2 either if he gets full time mid with his long kick and run

$3.75 AGS B365
$26 2 goals B365
$81 3 goals PB (hasn’t kicked 3 since his 15th career game at Brisbane in 2014 - just a for a laugh bet)

Will look to get on tackles when released at TAB too

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Alright men, here are my selections for this weeks round. A couple of small stakes value picks for goals, followed by the highly anticipated return of a most groundbreaking, profitable(+147.9U/Year) and prescient segment in the world of Sports Betting today.


Goal scorer value picks

Dangerfield atg@1.95 B365/1.90 TAB
Has scored a goal in 3 of his last 4 games this year and 8 of his last 9 against the Pies. Really gets motivated for these games. Pulls his socks right up and runs super fast.

Riewoldt 2+@$2 SB
Riewoldt 3+@$4.40 SB
Riewoldt 4+@$10.50 SB
Riewoldt 5+@$31 SB
A bet based on empirical observations of Jacks behaviour during these Maddies matches at the Dome over the past few years. High levels of motivation for him here, teammates will look for him and he’ll be keen to put a few through the sticks. Should be helped by the inclusions of Martin and Cotchin.


And finally, THE LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK IS THE GIANTS H2H@$2.90 FOR 10U

These two sides are going in completely different directions with GWS(who I’ve been extremely bullish on for some time in the Futures thread) rampaging across the entire continent and winning 7 from their past 8 games whilst Port are in the midst of one of the great capitulations of our times, losing 4 games in a row, having 10 players miss training this week with illness and having resorted to some truly desperate tactics a couple of weeks ago. Port are cooked in 2023 and I genuinely believe that they may not win another game this season. They are on full tilt and the aforementioned desperate tactics to which they have resorted leave little doubt that the current regime does not possess the psychology or belief that is necessary to right the ship this season, let alone before they play the Long Shot Louie Giants this week.


Anyway, Good luck this week men.
Remember to always go Full Degen, Load the Lock and never gamble responsibly.

Let’s keep these Bookie *s on their toes and finish the season strong.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

On Cunnington for 1,2 @ 3.40,29 last game ever surely

Frampton for 2,3 @ 10,41

365

 

[dontlimitme]

howe gonna be forward?

 

[Mazza1234678]

Can’t believe Collingwood isn’t shorter in the market tomorrow. Daicos injury seems a massive overreaction

Thought the Pies would come up 1.4-1.5

Geelongs 22 man lineup looks very ordinary on paper

 

[Jugada]

Can’t believe Collingwood isn’t shorter in the market tomorrow. Daicos injury seems a massive overreaction

Thought the Pies would come up 1.4-1.5

Geelongs 22 man lineup looks very ordinary on paper

Was like 1.40 vs 3 pre last week. Does seem a massive overreaction to one player out and one poor match

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Can’t believe Collingwood isn’t shorter in the market tomorrow. Daicos injury seems a massive overreaction

Thought the Pies would come up 1.4-1.5

Geelongs 22 man lineup looks very ordinary on paper

Geelong have been overrated all year (losses to GWS & Fremantle as $10 dogs).

"Sharps" are just not getting that this is an average team.

Same thing happened with Richmond in 2021/ 2022 when people were betting them [at prices] as if they were the team from 2017-2020, when the data was suggesting the ship had sailed.

Good if you've been fading them.

This is definitely another spot where there's an edge on the other side.

 

[HTPunter]

Crisp tackles - good strong tackler, hoping for some good CBA
6 $2.30
8 $5.50
10 $12

Almost using Lipinski as a long shot back up in case he does get a good haul of CBA - also had 9 tackles v Freo a month ago after a run of 0, had 13 in a game last year amongst random 6s so does have spike games - it’s more just if Lippa gets a solid center square run
4 $2.25
6 $6
8 $21
10 $91 using SGM trick ($98 with multiplier)